Friday, September 12, 2014

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 9/8c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Friday 9/8c hour. Since Fox audibled out of a 9/8c edition of Utopia, this hour will likely be exactly the same as last fall. For most networks, that's a good thing, since Friday programming has been thriving relative to the weeknights. For the excitement level of this post, it's not.

Shark Tank
Premieres September 26
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.94 +5% hit(Fri) 2.42 -20% Friday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsShark Tank
Avg Orig Avg
1.79 1.95 1.96 2.43

Best Case: Is it possible that the biggest "hit for Friday" in the A18-49+ era can take the next step and become a bonafide hit that happens to be on Friday? It hit a series high very late last season and may have picked up some new viewers from a full summer of play on CNBC. I can't quite get to a 125 Plus, but I can get pretty close. So just for fun I'll give it that 125 Plus = 2.12.

Worst Case: The already fierce competition is going to get even fiercer, as H50 gets an Amazing Race bump and Grimm gets a Constantine bump. Above league average ratings on Friday are just not sustainable. Dips 17% to a 1.61.

Likeliest: This is another of those shows that is tough to gauge because it's unlike anything else in recent memory. Amazing as last year's growth was, it was still less than the previous year, so I think it's another of those The Big Bang Theory-type shows that is nearing the peak. But in this case, it ended the season well enough that it's not there just yet. -6% to 1.82.

Hawaii Five-0
Premieres September 26
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.42 -34% hit(Fri) 1.71 -17% Friday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsHawaii Five-0
Avg Orig Avg
1.31 1.42 1.42 1.71

Best Case: It's about to start playing in syndication on TNT, and TNT's gonna play it a lot since it's one of the most expensive deals ever. There's a good chance The Amazing Race does better than I'm expecting and proves an upgrade on Undercover Boss. Up a hair to 1.50.

Worst Case: Its new lead-in The Amazing Race disappoints, and this show really overachieved last year anyway. It'll start dropping more than average as it did through the second half of its run on Monday, down nearly 20% to a 1.15. That puts it more on a Plus level with what CSI: NY did on the night.

Likeliest: This timeslot is boringly similar enough that I don't see much of a reason for optimism or pessimism. CSI: NY had been declining in its last Wednesday seasons but pretty much stabilized in Plus when it moved to Friday, and that should happen here too. Syndication exposure may not start making an impact till the second half of season five, but it could help a bit. -8% to 1.31.

Premieres October 24
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.40 -14% hit(Fri) 1.79 -21% Friday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsGrimm
Avg Orig Avg
1.75 1.36 1.40 1.79

Best Case: The -14% above is a bit deceptive, because it includes some 2012-13 results when Grimm aired on Monday and Tuesday. It was actually down a bit less than league average comparing just Friday averages, and that was with some underwhelming companions at 10/9c. The stronger Constantine brings a few more people into the NBC Friday tent. Down 4% to 1.35.

Worst Case: This is a serialized genre show, and they just don't grow this late in the game. Finally takes a noticeable downturn, down 22% to 1.09.

Likeliest: Just barely above league average drop to 1.25. I'd go a little lower since it's a veteran genre show and both competitors may trend slightly up, but I think Constantine does well enough to assist Grimm's ratings a teeny bit.

No scenarios for the probable Fox drama encores or the already ongoing America's Next Top Model season. I'm sure you're devastated!

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 9:00 5.9 18 +7% 2 28.3 16 21% 18

The Network to Watch: None of these are all that interesting, but I guess I'll take NBC. That's mostly because of the potential Constantine effect at 10/9c, though.

The Picks: It may be Friday, but it's one of my few slots where both DVR tuners are pretty locked in. Shark Tank and Grimm.


Spot said...

It's not as if Shark Tank was being damaged by The Neighbors since it became a hit for Friday, but it tied its series high once Neighbors left the sked. If Cristela can post improvement in the 8:30 half-hour that has to be worth something positive for the reality show, which is why I'd argue that ABC is the network to watch. Can a Friday show average a 2.x? Shark Tank is the best possibility

Maybe for shows that have an minimal out of timeslot run like Grimm, the y2y should only look at the regular timeslot airings? It'd help make the comparisons for it (and other shows like Undercover Boss last season) easier to comprehend. Either way, hopefully Grimm can have less fluctuation week to week this season; it took until January for the show to steady out in the ratings (meaning less than 0.1 bounce/drop). Between more interest for Constantine in the later hour that spills up and a stronger NBC Thursday in the Winter/Spring that'll be more effective in promoting the Friday shows, I do think Grimm's trend could be slightly better.

My pick: This could be the year I add Shark Tank to my DVR.

Spot said...

Shark Tank is the Number One Friday show but NBC will get stronger with the Grimm and Constantine , both shows look perfect for each other.
BTW , Hawaii 50 has been airing in syndication on TNT since summer 2013 with pretty weak numbers , 0.3 /0.2 demo tops , so no bump happened . Poor TNT has paid a fortune for nothing.

Spot said...

We are very close on both shows today:
- Grimm: 1.23. No strong opinion on this one. I don't think last year really had a trend considering how much up and down the ratings were all the time so it's hard to make anything out of them. For what it's worth, I thought the last third of Season 3 was probably the best the show has ever been creatively, so hopefully that counts for something. The pairing with Constantine should help, as it should if NBC stops throwing it those horribly rated specials as lead-ins at 8pm. Save those for when Grimm is not new or even better, don't air them at all, NBC!
- H50: 1.34. I don't really find any reason why this show shouldn't continue to do well this year. The competition doesn't get harder and the lead-in should improve, or at the very worse, don't get worse. The show will air a record of 26 episodes this season which should also reduce the gaps between episodes

As always, I do not predict unscripted but I would say that you are probably underestimating Shark Tank since it really didn't seem to cool off at the end of the year and also because I suspect CBS may have inadvertently give it the most compatible show on broadcast tv as its indirect lead-in. People may be more willing to sit in for a TAR-Shark Tank block. We shall see.

Network to watch: ABC with Shark Tank

My picks: H50 and Grimm. I also like to watch the occasional Shark Tank actually.

Spot said...

Here I have no smart (better said, smart ass) comments. I agree with Spot.

Only, if NBC expects Constantine to do better than Grimm (and they do, as it's not a cheap co-production like Dracula was), why don't they put Constantine on 9 PM, and push Grimm one hour late?
Perhaps Constantine is too gore, too graphic or whatever for 9 PM? I honestly don't know, that's just my guess.

Spot said...

I don't assume they expect it to do better than Grimm. Surely they expect it to do better than Dracula but between what Dracula was doing and what Grimm does there is a big range. I think they are probably looking for full retention or close to it like what CBS has with H50 and Blue Bloods.

Spot said...

You're missing my point. One cannot compare those shows.

Dracula = cheap co-production, NBC paid it max. $1 million per episode.

Constantine = "normal" production, NBC pays it between $1.5 million and $2.0 million. As it is Friday show, I'd say it's in lower part of that range.

Grimm = somewhere in between those two cases. Not cheap, but is in-house (Universal, while Constantine is WB), and will have 88 episodes after this season .

All in all, I estimate NBC expects 1.50+ from Constantine. Maybe they'll renew it even with around 14.0, That is, if it repeats well, or simply by cancellation bear rule. But with 1.30- in A18-49 I think it's dead for sure.

Spot said...

I'm super curious if Shark Tank vaults that 2 average despite declines for most shows, and it being on Friday.

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