|Premieres September 26|
|Timeslot Occupants||Shark Tank|
Best Case: Is it possible that the biggest "hit for Friday" in the A18-49+ era can take the next step and become a bonafide hit that happens to be on Friday? It hit a series high very late last season and may have picked up some new viewers from a full summer of play on CNBC. I can't quite get to a 125 Plus, but I can get pretty close. So just for fun I'll give it that 125 Plus = 2.12.
Worst Case: The already fierce competition is going to get even fiercer, as H50 gets an Amazing Race bump and Grimm gets a Constantine bump. Above league average ratings on Friday are just not sustainable. Dips 17% to a 1.61.
Likeliest: This is another of those shows that is tough to gauge because it's unlike anything else in recent memory. Amazing as last year's growth was, it was still less than the previous year, so I think it's another of those The Big Bang Theory-type shows that is nearing the peak. But in this case, it ended the season well enough that it's not there just yet. -6% to 1.82.
|Premieres September 26|
|Timeslot Occupants||Hawaii Five-0|
Best Case: It's about to start playing in syndication on TNT, and TNT's gonna play it a lot since it's one of the most expensive deals ever. There's a good chance The Amazing Race does better than I'm expecting and proves an upgrade on Undercover Boss. Up a hair to 1.50.
Worst Case: Its new lead-in The Amazing Race disappoints, and this show really overachieved last year anyway. It'll start dropping more than average as it did through the second half of its run on Monday, down nearly 20% to a 1.15. That puts it more on a Plus level with what CSI: NY did on the night.
Likeliest: This timeslot is boringly similar enough that I don't see much of a reason for optimism or pessimism. CSI: NY had been declining in its last Wednesday seasons but pretty much stabilized in Plus when it moved to Friday, and that should happen here too. Syndication exposure may not start making an impact till the second half of season five, but it could help a bit. -8% to 1.31.
|Premieres October 24|
Best Case: The -14% above is a bit deceptive, because it includes some 2012-13 results when Grimm aired on Monday and Tuesday. It was actually down a bit less than league average comparing just Friday averages, and that was with some underwhelming companions at 10/9c. The stronger Constantine brings a few more people into the NBC Friday tent. Down 4% to 1.35.
Worst Case: This is a serialized genre show, and they just don't grow this late in the game. Finally takes a noticeable downturn, down 22% to 1.09.
Likeliest: Just barely above league average drop to 1.25. I'd go a little lower since it's a veteran genre show and both competitors may trend slightly up, but I think Constantine does well enough to assist Grimm's ratings a teeny bit.
No scenarios for the probable Fox drama encores or the already ongoing America's Next Top Model season. I'm sure you're devastated!
The Network to Watch: None of these are all that interesting, but I guess I'll take NBC. That's mostly because of the potential Constantine effect at 10/9c, though.
The Picks: It may be Friday, but it's one of my few slots where both DVR tuners are pretty locked in. Shark Tank and Grimm.