Thursday, October 2, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/1/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC got its usual finals help, bringing all the returning comedies' drops into the single digits and Black-ish (2.6) to a slightly more reasonable -21%. Even Nashville (1.6) got a bump, surprisingly inching it ahead of a downward-adjusting Chicago PD (1.5). The Mysteries of Laura (1.5) was up to tie last week's timeslot premiere (as well as PD). This feels more like bad news for PD than good for Laura, but we'll see how things develop.
  • Despite a very solid return from Criminal Minds (2.7, down just a tenth year-to-year), CBS' Stalker (2.0) had a modest start at 10/9c against little competition. The worst-reviewed show of the season now must hold up extremely well to be an improvement on last year's occupant CSI. At this point, it seems more likely that we'll soon be wondering what drama replaces it at midseason. And after a big premiere last week, Survivor (2.4) fell but was still on last year's week two pace.
  • ABC's comedy lineup (at least preliminarily) dropped across the board in week two. The returnees The Middle (1.9), The Goldbergs (2.2) and Modern Family (3.5) were all down about 10% while Black-ish (2.5) was down close to 25%, keeping it right on par with the Super Fun Night track. But we'll see what bounty awaits the network in finals adjustments! Nashville (1.5) was even.
  • NBC's crime dramas Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) each took double-digit dips against the return of CBS dramas, while The Mysteries of Laura (1.4) held a bit better.
  • Fox leveled off with Hell's Kitchen (1.4) and Red Band Society (1.1).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.0 34% -9%-0.2n/a 2/2 -13% -9% -13% 2.1
The Goldbergs 2.3 41% -4%-0.1-0.2 2/2 +5% -4% +21% 2.4
Modern Family 3.7 45% -5%-0.2-0.1 2/2 -12% -5% -12% 3.3
Black-ish 2.6 40% -21%-0.7-0.2 2/2 n/a -21% -19% 2.1
Nashville 1.6 38% +7%+0.1-0.7 1/2 -16% +10% -16% 1.5
ABC:-6%-10%
Survivor 2.4 32% -11%-0.3n/a 2/2 -11% -14% -11% 2.6
Criminal Minds 2.7 29% n/an/an/a 1/1 -4% +4% +0% 2.5
Stalker 2.0 28% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -22% -2% 1.8
CBS:-11%-5%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.5 21% +0%+0.0n/a 2/3 n/a +0% -6% 1.7
Law and Order: SVU 1.8 30% -18%-0.4+0.0 2/2 -10% -16% -10% 1.9
Chicago PD 1.5 29% -21%-0.4-0.4 2/2 n/a -21% +11% 1.6
NBC:-14%-3%
Hell's Kitchen 1.4 46% +8%+0.1n/a 3/5 n/a +8% -38% 1.6
Red Band Society 1.1 42% +0%+0.0+0.1 2/3 n/a +5% -58% 1.2
Fox:+6%-48%
Arrow (R) 0.2 37% -60% -64% 0.3
Arrow (R) 0.2 38% -50% -50% 0.3
CW:-56%-58%
Big5:-11%-20%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

33 comments:

Spot said...

And the sound you've just heard is the sound of all CBS veteran dramas on Sunday and Friday being renewed. CBS will probably call it a day with Scorpion and New Orleans which isn't that bad anyway. Criminal Minds did very well though.



As for ABC, I find the performance of Modern Family and The Goldbergs very impressive, especially since i am counting on upwards adjustments. I am kind of hating on the middle performance though, no proper excuse to fall below a 2.0 so soon when the block is overall so much stronger and there is no strong competition. As for Black-ish, I don't think falling 1.0 from Modern Family is that bad but it probably needs to level off now to be called a success. Nashville being even is a nice surprise.

Spot said...

Damn it The Middle! You were supposed to at least stay even, not drop! It can't be the year of Sue if you keep dropping.
.
Outstanding for The Goldbergs. It matched its year ago week 2 and its lead in was down FOURTY-TWO PERCENT. It started down 24%. Now it is only at -13%. If it hold this number next week it will be -6% and up by November sweeps

Spot said...

Spot, is Survivor 2.4 or 2.2 last evening?

Spot said...

I agree about Revenge though it has a history of falling a lot from premieres.

I think The Whispers is needed on Tuesdays to give Shield some sort of compatible programming. Besides, I am not sure how wise it would be to put it against Game of Thrones since both appear to be heavy on the fantasy element.

Regarding Astronaut Wives Club, I agree that it would fit better with both OUAT and Revenge but I have my doubts how serious that project is for ABC. It was originally intended for summer and then postponed for midseason so maybe a Thursday burnoff during winter is in order? Not sure it would be given such a prominent slot.

This being said, last year I also wasn't a buyer on Resurrection and I was proven wrong so maybe American Crime can surprise me again.

Spot said...

It was a 2.4 with A18-49.

Spot said...

If Stalker is a big enough disappointment to get yanked, my prediction is it's a fight between Battle Creek and CSI: Cyber to claim this slot come midseason. CBS could still follow through on ending CSI's season early and put The Mentalist back on Sundays at 10:00. But this may all rely on Madam Secretary getting a full-season order which is an iffy prospect.

SVU at least stayed in the high 1's against Minds. That's promising.

This season I may have to start reserving immediate judgement on ABC's prelims since they are getting all kinds of wacky upward adjustments in finals except on Mondays. Now Nashville just needs to hope that it is able to catch that tide this week.

Spot said...

Stalker's 2.0 at 10 PM cannot be labeled as flop. But, in context of being half a rating point behind NCIS: New Orleans, and entire point behind Scorpion, Stalker goes straight to likely cancellation. Even if it holds well in upcoming weeks, it still would depend on how midseason dramas will do, and on how many veteran Fri/Sun dramas CBS will renew for syndication reasons. That's too many ifs for being even on the bubble.



Elsewhere, usual weak 2 drop, and usual Fox blues.

Spot said...

Wait, apparently Survivor got a 2.4, which isn't as bad. But this season still sucks.

Spot said...

Misogyny? One of the victims was a guy.

Spot said...

First Monday ABC was adjusted .2 on Mondays too.
This Monday they were preempted for NFL game in Boston and Kansas City.
It might as well be it was
+ .2 strange ABC adjustments
- .4 for sports preemption
= -.2 total

Spot said...

Fixed

Spot said...

I agree that most people hating on Stalker for such things didn't watch it. The most offensive thing about Stalker is that is was pretty boring. Allegations are sexism are unfounded. You think peoole would be happy to see a competent female lead would be a postitive to people. But whatever, Stalker was a victim of being on CBS. If it was an AMC show abou the exploits of a serial stalker or even better an HBO show about 2 detectives going after a Stalker over 10 episodes it would have been critically acclaimed

Spot said...

There's a legitimate question, and I'm not the person to answer, as to how much the difference in critical response between Stalker and (say) Dexter is warranted by content and how much is a network reputation element.

Spot said...

I haven't watched stalker yet but will tonight, I don't understand all the negative reviews. If the reviews were from people who watched I would be okay with it, but when you hear its "sexist" you know its someone who feels EVERYTHING should be politically correct.

Spot said...

Yeah, cable hits are full of stuff that would get flack on the networks. shows about a serial killer, a meth dealer, or a biker gang would be criticized elsewhere. Especially since these people are the protagonist. The Blacklist is the closet thing on broadcast where the main character is actually a bad guy, and even then he's morally ambigious most of the time

Spot said...

From CBS's point of views, the "right" dramas succeeded too: Scorpion and NCIS:NO are from CBS Television, whereas Stalker is from Warner.


I do wonder whether we're being a little bit premature trying to write off Stalker already.

Spot said...

I agree with the possible exception of TAR, I didn't expect it to start

with "pull me now" numbers. Shield and TBL are also potentially relevant I would say.


Other than that, I care about the magnitude of all these for the pure entertainment factor I get from ratings, but in terms of it "mattering" i agree.

Spot said...

No matter how things end up, the new CBS dramas can't blame scheduling for failure. All 4 got their most thematically similar lead in possible. Madam Secretary is paired with thematically similar the Good Wife as well as 60 Minutes due to its emphasis on political news. Scorpion is getting the Big Bang Theory, which it is basically a drama version of. NCIS: NO has regular NCIS as a lead in, and even has NCIS' lead actor a creative force in the show. Can't ask for more compatability than that. Stalker and Criminal Minds are both about crime units fighting similar crimes.

Spot said...

Only CSI's have really worked post Criminal Minds anyways. Even the spinoff didn't make it. I think why is that CSI's are thematically similar enough to hold Mind's viewers, but also part of an established brand that brings its own viewers in. So I vote CSI: Cyber launch in January. Only good slot for it. Seeing as Sundays at 10 even without overrun is killing CSI Prime. Cyber would have no chance there

Spot said...

I agree 100%. I have been saying that since the upfronts. The failure of any of these 4 dramas is entirely on them and not on CBS at all. They went out of their way to give all these shows the best possible slots, including banishing TAR to Fridays, banishing CSI to Sundays, forcing LA to take Mondays and breaking up decade old comedy block.

Spot said...

I was just thinking that. CSI Cyber could be a winner for CBS - at least a moderate one - but not Sundays at 10. Nothing really workson cbs on Sundays, so if stalker flops, I think a move for Cyber to Wednesdays is the best option. CBS can use Sunday to burn off The Mentalist's short season.

Spot said...

In the meantime, even on the verge of a somehow disappointing night (even if I think the only disappointing show for them last night was the middle), abc is 0.2 away from tying with CBS for the night and that was with the "big" premiere of Stalker. I think there is a real chance ABC takes the night in coming weeks if Black-ish stops falling now (maybe even last night depending on how crazy the adjustments are this time)

Spot said...

And it's ended up burning them. Maybe CBS keep early-renewing TGW because they keep hearing horrible things about their pilots? They've had development hell for a while now...

Spot said...

I think so far it's been a win except for Madam Secretary, but I kind of doubt they actually thought they would get 18-49 benefit from that one.
- Scorpion is doing very well so far, even with the caveat of big bang lead-in
- New Orleans is "just there", true, but it's doing probably what LA would be doing there, while LA is certainly doing better than previous failures did in the slot (keep in mind that the original NCIS is down quite some)
- Stalker may end up settling at only roughly the same level as CSI did which could lead to its demise but even that shouldn't be a significant loss because CSI would eventually have to take Sundays, it's not a big deal if it happened a year sooner than it would have otherwise

Spot said...

http://deadline.com/2014/10/abc-nielsen-fast-national-ratings-low-844522/

FYI, for anyone interested: the mystery of ABC adjustments remains!

Spot said...

If there is any good coming out of CBS' Stalker it's the dialogue it has created about fictionalized violence on television whether on cable or broadcast. There does indeed appear to be a double standard applied to both broadcast and cable. This might or might not be fair but networks have different standards and practices to which to adhere so I think that might partially explain the critical double standard. I'm not opposed to violence on television or in film as long as it doesn't appear gratuitous to me. I am no fan of either Dexter, Criminal Minds or certainly Stalker. And I won't even go into critical network darling, Hannibal which I suppose is the equivalent of Downton Abbey De Sade. Back to Stalker. I did force myself to watch it from beginning to end. The opening sequence of the helpless but pretty young woman being dosed in gasoline and then burned alive in her car, I assume has set the appropriate tone for what is to come in future Stalker episodes. I can't imagine a male being stalked by another male each week is going to attract a big enough audience to CBS. I'll stick my neck out here and venture to guess that the helpless and always pretty young female victim/body count will ultimately far exceed the male victims with each passing Stalker episode Furthermore, I assume the writers will up their game each week with the types of twisted and imaginative torture employed since who wants to watch someone just tie a victim up and ask for a ransom. I am not the television obscenity cop, as someone tried to insult me yesterday on TVBTN, but I do personally find much of CBS' crime procedural programming obscene--it's just not my thing. That being said, I am a huge free speech advocate and no fan of censorship. I personally think the critical panning of Stalker and CBS is justified, however. CBS could and should be able to do so much better or at least they should give the appearance they have put in some effort. Sorry for the soap boxing here. I'll shut up.

Spot said...

I see the delays with The Astronaut Wives Club in the opposite way: ABC's taking its time and spending the money to get it right. The project should consider itself lucky since it would have just been canceled if it were at Fox (see: Murder Police, Us & Them, Hieroglyph, Freakylinks). ABC's summer strategy is pretty clearly reality shows, Castle & sitcom repeats, and cheap Canadian drama imports, so Astronaut doesn't fit in there.

Spot said...

It's a valid way to think about it, I agree. Maybe you're right. Like I've said, I think the show would fit in nicely on Sundays.


But I doubt ABC audibles out of American Crime, it seems like the kind of stuff that they love to premiere at the Oscars.

Spot said...

One small issue with the article, The Big Bang Theory adjusted up 3 tenths almost every episode in the spring for 2013, so 3 isn't unprecedented. And of course the random 5 point adjust of HIMYM last year. Anyways, The Big Bang Theory stopped adjusting up 3 and 4 tenths last season after the premiere. I think Nielsen did something to stop the constant 3 tenth TBBT adjustments, so I think ABC can be solved

Spot said...

I think you are correct about CBS being allowed to keep the NFLN ratings and it did count for 0.2 last week.

Spot said...

Yes, that is one of those funny cases where show that not premiered yet (Undercover Boss) climbs up on totem pole just because some other show (The Amazaing Race) collapsed.

TAR should rebound somewhat with no Shark Tank in the hour, so I don't think it would be pulled. though, for renewal chances probably it will prove to be too little, too late.

Spot said...

I agree with you about Undercover Boss suddenly becoming much more valuable without doing anything.

Regarding TAR, I really think CBS should go for Big Brother | TAR | Unforgettable on Sundays next summer. Big Brother has a huge demo audience (for summer standards and beyond) but it is widely incompatible with CBS old skewing procedurals. They would probably get nice ratings out of TAR with that arrangement.

Spot said...

I think it's probable that Scorpion can exceed the combined averages of last season's Mike & Molly and Mom in the 9:00 hour. If NCIS: LA can hold in the high 1's or push into the low 2's, something that's likely to happen once State of Affairs replaces The Blacklist, those drama combined can cancel out the effects of 2 Broke Girls & The Millers/Mom.

Wednesdays I do think will stay above water on a Plus-basis even/especially if Stalker can do the same business or a tick higher than CSI.

But Thursdays, of the 3 nights you highlight, feels the most problematic. It'll get the artificial boost in January while ABC is in gap-schedule mode and NBC limps to the February "finish" line. But once ABC comes back with its dramas and NBC installs The Blacklist (which will probably run non-stop until May) the Eye will have to face that double-whammy. It'd take Charlie Sheen coming back to Two and a Half Men to ignite enough interest and get CBS to fight beyond third place overall for the night.

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