Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Friday 9/26/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.9) picked up a tenth, putting it ahead of last year's one-hour premiere. (It averaged a 2.1 in the 9:00 hour, which was three tenths ahead of last year's 9:00 hour.) Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) lost a tenth, tying it with Blue Bloods and further darkening CBS' night.
  • A year after Hawaii Five-0 made a promising transition to Friday, things got off to a much rougher start for the CBS lineup this time. The first Friday episode of The Amazing Race (1.1) barely managed half of its premiere last fall (2.0) and was well below even the spring premiere against the Olympics (1.5). Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.2) also took significant dips from last year's premieres. The Amazing Race could bounce back a bit once Shark Tank is out of the 8/7c mix, but it looks very likely to be a weaker player than Undercover Boss last year. CBS was a disheartening 26% behind last year's premiere Friday.
  • As for ABC, it had another strong premiere from Shark Tank (1.8 for the two hours) and 20/20 (1.6). This was 20% above last year's premiere Friday when they had family comedies in the 8:00 hour.
  • NBC slightly improved on last year's premiere Friday with two hours of Dateline (1.4), while Fox took another massive drop as Utopia (0.7) was at less than half of year-ago occupant MasterChef Junior. The big five combined to go about 12% behind last year's opening Friday.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Shark Tank 1.9 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 +6% +105% +23% 2.1
20/20 1.6 31% n/an/an/a 1/1 +23% +60% +28% 1.8
ABC:+89%+24%
The Amazing Race 1.1 25% n/an/an/a 1/1 -45% -29% -31% 1.4
Hawaii Five-0 1.2 17% n/an/an/a 1/1 -25% +60% -23% 1.6
Blue Bloods 1.2 14% n/an/an/a 1/1 -29% +50% -29% 1.6
CBS:+13%-28%
The Mysteries of Laura (R) 0.7 18% +0% -7% 1.1
Dateline Fri 1.4 26% n/an/an/a 1/1 +8% +14% +4% 1.8
NBC:+11%+1%
Utopia Fri 0.7 47% +40%+0.2n/a 1/3 n/a +17% -58% 1.0
Gotham (R) 0.7 36% +56% -18% 1.2
Fox:+33%-44%
Masters of Illusion 0.3 38% -25%-0.1n/a 3/3 n/a -25% +50% 0.4
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 44% -25% +50% 0.4
America's Next Top Model (R) 0.2 48% +0% -50% 0.3
CW:-17%-17%
Big5:+32%-12%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

36 comments:

Spot said...

Ouch for The Amazing Race. That'll teach me to follow my gut. We have brains for a reason!

Spot said...

Wow. I never expected TAR to be that low. That's horrible. It's normal that it brought H50 down with it, I don't really think H50 did that bad considering. It really makes you value the performance of Undercover Boss more. I think CBS should order the second cycle for summer and put it after Big Brother, it's probably the best use for it now. Blue Bloods also did quite poorly. It premiered with a 1.7 last year, I don't get the huge drop.

ABC dominated as usual.

Spot said...

Like wowtown, I also need to relearn the lesson to trust the numbers over instinct - it really was as simple as a 30-35% drop from Sunday premiere for Amazing race.

Spot said...

Wow at The Amazing Race. I thought it would at least match the Big Bro clip show from a week ago.

Spot said...

That's a good idea. Or maybe air TAR during the Survivor hiatus.

Spot said...

NOT a Big Brother clip show from last week outrating this week's TAR premiere by half a ratings point. That's really telling of how weak TAR is at this point

Spot said...

Right now it looks like Sunday to Friday is not a lateral move for a CBS show. I do think the show was overly damaged by Shark Tank, like I thought would happen. I expect the show pick up a tick or two once Last Man Standing and Cristela come in and with Utopia being even weaker than I predicted.



If Friday continues the trend for most ABC shows, Tank and/or 20/20 should adjust up. That Tank matched last season's one-hour debut even though it had to deal with the 8:00 hour is a great start.

Spot said...

Okay, now I can see Blue Bloods ending this year. Not that I think it overly deservess it or that CBS can do much better there, but I think they'll need room for a CBS made show for their "syndication factory" and Blue Bloods loses out to studio politics

Spot said...

Talking about CBS strategy for their syndication farms, sunday and friday and their aging dramas as well.


Madam Secretary is a big if (and I don't expect it to do well without football doubleheaders), The Good Wife is hanging in there because of acclaim, CSI is probably going to last at least two more years. Meanwhile, TAR is off to a bad start and Blue Bloods and Five-O ae both canceleation contenders. On MON-THU there are two subpar performers, Person of Interest and Elementary.


They envisioned that scenario by launching three new fall dramas and a loaded midseason (something that goes against their usual conservative strategy they've followed), what are they going to do for sunday/friday next season?


I'm betting on Elementary to replace TGW and POI to replace Hawaii Five-O, UB goes back to fridays at 8 but I don't know what they are going to do on sundays, at this pace TAR isn't even worth a summer bound.

Spot said...

Isn't Blood Bloods a CBS Television Studios production? And it recently picked up that syndication deal last season.

Spot said...

Anyone else notice Dateline just beat of The Biggest Loser on Thursday.

Spot said...

Wow you're right. And going up against similar themed 20/20!

Spot said...

I really think that if put after Big Brother on the summer TAR would be able to get very high 1s.



Also, I don't think H50 is in such trouble as people are saying. CBS launched a huge number of programs this year but last year for instance they only launched 3 hours. 3 hours is very easy to make room for. It's enough to have Madam Secretary cancelled, The Good Wife held for midseason a la The Mentalist and two comedies replacing Two and a Half Men/ The McHarthys. Then there is also the possibility of Undercover Boss being held again. Only then I think we start heading into cancellation worthy territory for CSI/H50/Blue Bloods AND that's assuming Scorpion/ Stalker/ NO are renewed (which are not sure things, especially in Scorpion's case)

Spot said...

I've never been a fan of the ABC bosses' decisions, but their scheduling has been on-point this season. Shark Tank just destroyed The Amazing Race, and it that puts a serious dent in TAR's ratings for the rest of the season, that's a huge relief for this comedy block they're trying to build on Fridays.

ABC could seriously win in entertainment average this year. I know we haven't seen everything yet (hello, Tuesday comedy failures), but they've surprised us with stuff like Forever, so you never know.

Spot said...

If I've calculated correctly, the nets are down 9% y2y on premiere week so far, despite the NFL Thursday boost.

( -12 12 -18 -24 -3 ) = 45 / 5

Spot said...

I really think it comes down to two things:1) Sundays and 2) What they use in their winter to bridge all the serials.

Other things would matter like How American Crime and Secrets and Lies do in midseason, removing or not Nashville from the schedule, how hard the comedies bomb on Tuesday, etc. but I think the first two are the main ones.

Spot said...

I feel like there is still a surprising amount of hours to premiere even after premiere week so I am not sure how reliable that number is this year. Examples:
- ABC Tuesdays at 8
- ABC Fridays at 8
- CBS Wednesdays at 9
- CBS Wednesdays at 10
- CBS Mondays at 8
- CBS Mondays at 10
- CBS Thursdays at 8
- CBS Thursdays at 9
- CBS Thursdays at 10
- NBC Thursdays at 9
- NBC Tuesdays at 9
- Sunday as a whole of course

Maybe it's always like that and I haven't noticed it before but this year it really feels like networks phased it out more, especially CBS.

Spot said...

Right, but almost none of those premieres will do better than this week's numbers.

Spot said...

It appears that CBS Fridays have officially reached their Sell By date. Furthermore, Blue Bloods will have 111 episodes by years end, and if the reports of a 25-episode order for Five-0 season five are correct and it isn't reduced later in the season, it'll take that show to ep 118. So CBS may look at all that and, even w/ the 2 million dollar deal for Five-0, decide to cut cord on both of them.

As for Amazing Race, that's greatly troubling. It's like a Top Model-style bleedout right now. And I doubt CBS is going to need a circa-1.0 performer as badly as CW needed the mid-0s that Top Model ended up settling at.

Solid numbers for Shark Tank and 20/20 are solid. That is all.

Utopia is a ratings dystopia. Many already know my thoughts on Reilly.

Spot said...

Yes it is. But even so, they'll have 111 eps at the end of this (7 less than Numb3rs when CBS pulled the plug; incidentally, Five-0 will have 118 eps at the end of this year), so I don't know that CBS wouldn't just pull the plug anyway, especially since two actresses who were credited as "Also starring" last year are now in the main cast roll in the intro, which I can't imagine didn't come w/out a pay raise for them.

Spot said...

I floated that as a possibility last week, and frankly I didn't feel remotely confident doing so. Now I do. As omabin said yesterday, Sundays and winter will be big, and going from Black-ish to Nashville might cost them too.

They have clear momentum though, and are taking full advantage of the other nets throwing most of their heavy hitters at the start of the week.

Spot said...

I trusted in Shark Tank when I took the Under, finally recovering my premiere-week record to 1-4. (Would have been 2-3, but after an 0-3 start I deliberately took the option I thought would be wrong!)

Spot said...

Congrats on calling it.

I have to say, though, I can't see them not moving Nashville mid-season to premiere something else. Even if Forever divebombs and the latter half of Sundays vastly underperforms, there is no way a midseason replacement isn't going there. They have too many of them and the slot is just too high-priority. So the Blackish to Nashville conversion may not be here hurting them for long.

Spot said...

Those breakdowns are far more illuminating than the already-interesting "Game Quality" number from previous years. Frankly, I'm surprised the Bucs-Falcons game took that long to fall hard - it was already 21-0 at 9pm ET and 28-0 not that much later.

Spot said...

It's a laughable transition, possibly the worst I've ever seen (African-American family comedy into country music soap?!?), but it had to stick around for the fall because the alternatives were:

1) Another two moves to promote, both involving low-rated shows not worth soaking promotion time on when there was Shonda Thursday to push instead;
2) Selfie out of Modern Family, and see also the definition of insanity that revolves around repeating mistakes.

Spot said...

There was a third option which was to cancel nashville and promote a third new drama. I do think that focusing their promotion elsewhere was better though, so i prefer this arrangement. Midseasom though is a different story, they really ought to change it.

Spot said...

Yeah, CBS don't have to cancel more than one veteran drama, and I think Hawaii Five-0 is above The Good Wife and Blue Bloods on that totem pole. People always seem to predict more cancellations for CBS than what eventually happen.

And I really like your TAR for summer idea. I'd hope that if it's numbers don't improve that CBS give it try with some other scheduling, rather than just cancel it outright.

Spot said...

My two misses this week came from going over on CBS questions when I should have gone under. Maybe I'm too optimistic with CBS, but I feel like this could happen all over again with NCIS:LA.

Spot said...

I think the worst transition has to have been Fashion Star into Grimm.

Spot said...

Yeah, last year Blue Bloods hit a 1.7 after a 1.1 finale. This year it hit a 1.2 after a 1.4 finale. It's all over the place

Spot said...

Comparing last year's 1 hour Shark Tank premier at 9pm to the 9pm second
hour of Shark Tank last night equates to an 11% gain in the key demo.
Shark Tank is a Friday beast...but we already knew that

Spot said...

Last year there was a very significant lead-in upgrade (0.9 Vegas to 1.6 H50) so there was something resembling an explanation. Besides, the normal thing is for shows to slightly increase on their finales anyway.

To fall this much is weird, even with the 0.3 drop in H50.

Spot said...

There are two strange ones still skedded this season: Manhattan Love Story into Agents of Shield and Mom into Scorpion. But, for all-time, I have to go with:

My So Called Life into Matlock.

Spot said...

I've felt for a while that TAR should be down to one cycle per year and placed in Survivor's slot, but when I thought of it last year, I thought it'd need to involve TAR running in the spring and Survivor's spring cycle going on Sundays, with the idea being that in NFL season 60 Minutes was placed in a fixed 8:00 timeslot which was then vacated in January for Survivor. Is TAR short enough to fit in the hiatus? Each season is twelve hours, Survivor generally runs around 16 with a two-hour finale, you'd probably need to have Survivor run into the early summer a lá The Voice in years where NBC doesn't have the Super Bowl. (However, as CBS's summer lineup is essentially BB and reruns, this may actually be a feature and not a bug - you could launch a summer newbie out of the tail end of Survivor.)

(Assuming this could only possibly happen in 2015-16 so working off the calendar for that year, I'm thinking TAR could run ten weeks, with a January 6 two-hour premiere and a March 9 two-hour finale. Survivor would then run into early June.)

Spot said...

Yup, it's a temporary patch to allow them to go all-in on Thursday and to keep some decent promo muscle for Black-ish itself. Now that seems to have worked, midseason offers them a chance to think what they can launch out of it.

Spot said...

I really thought that if ABC didn't want to risk Grey's Anatomy & Scandal moving up an hour, How to Get Away with Murder could have been scheduled Wednesdays at 10:00 while keeping black-ish at 9:30.

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