Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/21/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The World Series had its lowest Game 1 ever in adults 18-49 (3.4) and was down 19% from last year's opener (and two tenths behind the previous low from 2012). The superhero shows got some finals help, as Agents of SHIELD (1.6) avoided a new low and The Flash (1.5) ended up down just two tenths. The finals were not so kind to Marry Me (1.8), now 22% behind the premiere. And its The Voice lead-in (3.3) got a two-tenth boost, making Marry Me look even worse by comparison.
  • NBC's comedies Marry Me (1.9) and About a Boy (1.4) were each down nearly 20% in week two. Marry Me probably shouldn't be counted out, as this is still just a touch behind the pace AaB set last spring. But it's not a good development for AaB, which dropped to the low end of what NBC got from Growing Up Fisher. Again, Chicago Fire (1.9) looked like a big winner in all this, even week-to-week despite the drops in the 9/8c hour.
  •  The CW's The Flash (1.4) took a bigger drop in week three than it did in week two, but apparently it was even in 18-34. So maybe Fox's older-skewing World Series had the same kind of bizarrely large effect that it's always had with Arrow.
  • On ABC, the bookend shows that dropped big last week each bounced back by a tenth: Selfie (1.1) and Forever (1.2). However, Agents of SHIELD (1.5) could be headed for another new low at 9/8c. This may be another World Series thing, but it can also at least partly thank a truly horrendous showing from Manhattan Love Story (0.7). The comedies are pre-empted next week anyway, but it's pretty hard to see Manhattan coming back on the other side of that.
  • CBS saw the NCIS mothership (2.4) continue its kinda worrying downward trickle but got a promising hold from NCIS: New Orleans (2.4).
  • And Fox had Game 1 of the World Series, moving Game 1 to Tuesday after it opened on Wednesday for the last seven years. (Presumably this is a move to help it avoid the NFL as much as possible.) The overnights indicate it was down double digits from last year's opener, not a stunner given the smaller-market matchup. More after finals!

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 1.1 37% +10%+0.1n/a 2/4 n/a +10% -59% 1.3
Manhattan Love Story 0.7 34% -22%-0.2+0.1 4/4 n/a -22% -74% 1.0
Agents of SHIELD 1.6 47% -6%-0.1-0.2 4/5 -41% -6% +10% 1.8
Forever 1.2 31% +9%+0.1-0.1 4/6 n/a +9% +14% 1.6
ABC:-1%-29%
NCIS 2.4 18% -4%-0.1n/a 5/5 -20% -4% -21% 2.5
NCIS: New Orleans 2.4 19% +9%+0.2-0.1 2/5 n/a +7% -6% 2.2
Person of Interest 1.5 20% +0%+0.0+0.2 4/5 -32% +0% -32% 1.6
CBS:+1%-19%
The Voice Tue 3.3 35% -3%-0.1n/a 4/5 -20% -3% +65% 3.2
Marry Me 1.8 41% -22%-0.5-0.1 2/2 n/a -22% -53% 1.5
About a Boy 1.4 38% -18%-0.3-0.5 2/2 n/a -18% -68% 1.4
Chicago Fire 1.9 32% +0%+0.0-0.3 4/5 -10% +0% -7% 2.1
NBC:-7%-17%
World Series 3.4 35% n/an/an/a 1/1 -19% +268% +123% 3.5
Fox:+268%+123%
The Flash 1.5 53% -12%-0.2n/a 3/3 n/a -9% +67% 1.5
Supernatural 0.9 55% -10%-0.1-0.2 3/3 -18% -5% -14% 0.7
CW:-8%+23%
Big5:+27%+7%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

49 comments:

Spot said...

The Flash and Shield's drops was very easy to see coming based on how CW leaning male wednesdays has behaved for the past two years against the world series. That's why I worry so much about the 100 tonight. I am really nervous.

Spot said...

The Flash - drop came against World Series. As Arrow was always hit hard by baseball on Fox, but subsequently recovered - nothing to see here, move on.

Marry Me - 2nd episode at 1.9, same as Chicago Fire in Episode 51, despite MM having 121% stronger (and more compatible) lead-in than CF had. I told NBC shouldn't schedule that comedy block there, but Chicago Fire instead. It would be even stronger there, and would provide very good lead-in for Chicago PD at 10 PM. Each to their own, and for NBC execs it is making senseless schedules.

Manhattan Love Story - 0.7 is laughable. Even on The CW it would be bubble show, and likely cancellation if it would drop some more. Idiots from ABC should pull it off schedule long ago.

Spot said...

Congrats Manhattan Love Story. That .7 ties the series lows of notorious flops 1600 Penn, The New Normal, Sean Saves the World, and Trophy Wife. Honestly, ABC would be better off airing WGN's chronically low rated Manhattan at this point.

Spot said...

Even Infomercials maybe would be better lead-in for S.H.I.E.L.D. than Manhattan Love Story is. Surely would be more compatible.

Spot said...

Shield is literally over doubling its lead in. It tied yesterday's Castle despite it having a 186% better lead in. It was a tick stronger than Ressurection despite a 286% stronger lead in there. I consider slightly down vs. World Series a win for both Flash and Shield. I mean that 1.4 is better than every Arrow ever...

Spot said...

At least with MLS, no one will be claiming ABC is trying to kill it and ABC should air it after Modern Family.

Spot said...

Given the horrible shape that NBC comedy was/is in, it would have made no sense to schedule Chicago Fire behind The Voice. Why give one of your biggest lead-ins to a third-year procedural that can self-start when you barely have a comedy presence? Chicago Fire can hold down the 10:00 hour quite well and give the network a chance to figure out their comedy situation using The Voice. Granted, I don't think Marry Me was the best choice to put behind The Voice, but begrudging them for using a quality lead-in on a genre they need to beef up is kind of dumb.
The only other place they could have conceivably put a comedy hour is Wednesdays and they A) seem married to the idea of a crime drama triptych and B) would have to deal with ABC's comedies, so that wouldn't really be feasible. Sunday has football; Monday has The Voice; Thursdays are a wasteland where nothing new can get a foothold; and Fridays are for Dateline and Grimm.

Spot said...

I'm kind of out of it since I was on vacation last week and sparingly checked stuff out here. But yikes at all the sitcoms. Manhattan Love Story needs to get off the schedule; if ABC's going to keep Selfie on the schedule, I'd rather see a Selfie/Wednesday comedy rerun in the hour instead of MLS after next week's preemption.

Most of the other shows I'm writing off during the World Series; The Flash and SHIELD feel like the kind of shows that would be more impacted by the sport than, say, Marry Me or Forever. It makes Chicago Fire's hold even more impressive.

I like the scheduling MLB is doing with the World Series this year. NBC, though, better hope for an October Surprise like Grimm's series debut for Constantine's launch on Friday; at least it faces Game 3 and not Game 7.

Spot said...

If you read carefully, it's not about Chicago Fire. It's about Chicago PD which is 2nd year procedural that is struggling with rather weak lead-in, while they have perfectly good solution.
And how exactly they revitalized comedies now? Marry Me would do no better on Thursdays than Bad Judge does (and vica versa), we know it from Spot's True. And About a Boy is in raw A18-49 numbers already at level of those Thursday flops, it would do 1.0 at best on other days. That's what is really dumb here, they wasted The Voice lead-in on failures, despite even a blind man could see those are not strong enough comedies to be awarded their strongest lead-in.

Spot said...

Chicago PD is still giving NBC year-to-year improvement so far compared to Ironside. And while the calculations behind it have changed, PD is approximately even in True compared to Fire's season 1.

I do think that NBC's better served trying to find some new comedies than helping a weak marginal drama just because NBC already has a lot of drama (The Blacklist, Fire, SVU, Grimm). Unless/Until they develop an out-of-the-box comedy hit a la Modern Family the best chance a sitcom has is being a Voice lead-out. Because right now, NBC only has an inflated Marry Me that looks somewhat worthy of making it into 2015-2016. That's scary.

Spot said...

About a Boy after this 1.4 - dead show walking.
Marry Me after this 1.9 (or 1.8) - at best 22 episodes and out.
Chicago PD - cop procedural with shot at 88+ episodes, but NBC is almost like trying to prevent it from achieving it.

I can clearly see which show out of those 3 they should stand behind. If you cannot see it, that's not my problem.

Spot said...

I'm not sure the World Series is having that much of an impact. I live in the SF Bay Area and I think most people here watched their regular shows last night and just caught the highlights of the game on the local news especially since the game started at 5:07 PM for us. Most poeple were still on the freeway coming home from work. :-/ If there's another blowout win for Giants tonight I suspect the ratings for the rest of the series will continue to drop especially since there aren't many Royals and Giant fans across the country.

Spot said...

NBC are still desperate to keep the comedy lights on, and PD is at least a highly compatible piece to go after (and eventually, some day, replace) SVU.

Of course, you could accuse them of trying to make 1990s NBC happen again, when their lineup screams 2000s CBS (deep lineup of crime procedurals, one big reality hit). Given that they went as far as to create a Sean Hayes vehicle last season, you could even be right!

Spot said...

Has a network ever gone into a season with zero renewed comedies? 2009 ABC had no returnees on the fall schedule, but still had Better Off Ted and revamped Scrubs in reserve. Parks and Rec is done this year. And Community was the last show they had to make season 3!

Spot said...

The World Series might have sapped some viewers away from SHIELD but certainly an unpopular, very ratings challenged romantic comedy lead-in is no help. The Flash' younger skewing audience was probably less affected by the World Series; it's loss is more likely the younger and fickle comic book audience interest starting to wane. ABC doesn't have much in their existing inventory to be compatible to male skewing SHIELD but I have to say Manhattan Love Story is just about the worst selection imaginable. Even placing Forever in the 8pm slot, while not a perfect selection, would make more sense than than the comedy pairing. Selfie is an okay sitcom that is at least a little edgy and "might" share a tiny audience with SHIELD but it too isn't compatible. The challenge for every network other than The CW is finding a compatible show with their comic book and fantasy themed ones. While strong performers for an effete FOOX network, the Gotham/Sleepy Hollow one isn't setting the ratings world on fire as Gotham continues to decline and Sleepy has shed nearly 50% of its early freshman year ratings already.

Spot said...

None of the big 4 has has fewer than 2 returning sitcoms in recent years, although I remember reading somewhere that NBC renewed either none or one in 1978.

NBC has Undateable, which might scrape to a third season. I can see Kimmy Schmidt doing decently, especially since I assume NBC will use Super Bowl to promote it. There's also a chance NBC picks up Universal Studios productions Mindy or Brooklyn if FOX cancels them.

Spot said...

*has renewed fewer, sorry.

Spot said...

It's gonna feel weird if Scorpion remains this close to the top of the CBS drama pack.

Spot said...

The CW gets disproportionately hit by the World Series every year. The best guess is that many CW affiliates air baseball which indirectly causes some unexpected audience overlap.

Spot said...

Other than The CW dropping all of its sitcoms for the 2009-2010 season, I can't think of any in my lifetime. Oliver's comment about NBC in the late 70s looks like it bares out if Wikipedia is correct.

Spot said...

I'd argue NBC is standing behind Chicago PD: it has kept its timeslot instead of making a move, still has a compatible lead-in with SVU, and gets to face some weak competition in Nashville and Stalker. In this competition, I have to get behind the abstract idea of a comedy over the known quantity of this specific drama because if not on Tuesdays, then where and with what kind of help?

Now NBC could give PD an upgrade by moving it to Thursdays at 10:00 after The Blacklist: stronger lead-in, still weak CBS competition, and ABC's Murder will be almost done with its first season to be replaced by sure-to-be-weaker Secrets & Lies. It could possibly help Blacklist by giving the sophomore some kind of support instead of being an island unto itself. When the Fire/SVU/PD crossovers happen it's a positive for 3 nights a la the CSI/CSI: Miami/CSI: NY crossovers. And NBC will be going full-throated with Thursday promotion like ABC did for TGIT.

I'm just spitballing an idea here and am not necessarily advocating that NBC do this, but that would be a way for NBC to "stand behind" the spinoff.

Spot said...

And that is OK. What is not OK, is they're repeatedly picking nonstarters (Community was their last comedy reaching 3+ seasons), and then they refuse to see it. Instead, they stubbornly waste marketing budget and other assets (like good lead-ins) on it. And it's not hard to see, just look at Spot's "likeliest" predictions:
1.72 Marry Me (only for 13 episodes with Voice lead-in)
1.50 About a Boy
1.16 Bad Judge
0.98 A to Z

Some of those (AaB most) look rather optimistic now. And all are in line what most of people expected from this, yet again, poor NBC comedy development slate.

Spot said...

Weird, but it makes a kind of sense. Mondays are pretty highly-viewed in general and CBS promoted the show incredibly hard. The fact that CBS' highest-rated dramas are 12 (NCIS) and 10 (Criminal Minds) seasons old is distressing; getting a new show up there with them is a big win especially if it remains true when 2 Broke Girls & The Millers/Mom full come in here.

Spot said...

Maybe I wasn't clear about one thing. I'm all for NBC giving The Voice lead-in to comedies that might have traction, let's say something like Black-ish. I'm against them repeatedly giving it to something all sane people in advance see are weak shows. For illustration, see rather pessimistic Spot's "likeliest" predictions before season, which now actually seem optimistic:
1.72 Marry Me (only for 13 episodes with Voice lead-in)
1.50 About a Boy
1.16 Bad Judge
0.98 A to Z

Spot said...

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/10/22/abc-announces-shark-tank-companion-series-beyond-the-tank/318240/

Have you seen this?

It doesn't say anything about scheduling but the fact that they call it companion series makes it look like they will air it with Shark Tank on Fridays, no?

Spot said...

Companion series, what the heck it is? At least it doesn't sound unintentionally dirty.

But, yes probably you're right. It says 10 one hour epsiodes. Then Friday 8 PM mid March? Cristela getting around 16 episodes, similar to Malibu County? And Last Man Standing double up with series finale in early March?

Spot said...

If it's an after-the-show type of deal, it makes more sense to air it after Shark Tank if they are paired together. 20/20 either moves to Fridays at 8:00 (which I'm not a fan of considering how weak it's been) or to Saturdays with Nightline Primetime. Although either show would probably be an improvement on Tuesdays at 8:00...

Spot said...

Actually, if they give 20 episodes to Cristela and 22 to LMS, both series could be done on March 13th if they run repeats free. That would give 10 Fridays until the end of the season to air Beyond the Tank. But I am not really sure if doing Beyond the Tank+Shark Tank is the best use for Beyond the Tank, especially if 20/20 continues to pull lower numbers than the comedy block.

If 20/20 doesn't improve and if they really intend to air Beyond the Tank on Fridays, I would prefer sending 20/20 to Saturdays and air Beyond the Tank at 10pm as the natural Shark Tank lead-out.

Of course I still wonder what can they possibly use for Shield lead-in in the spring if not this. Its lead out will be The Whispers most likely but lead-in? I have no idea. Maybe Members Only but that sounds like a 10pm soap to me and I am really not sure how much it would help Shield if it even managed to succeed (big if)

Spot said...

No, it's not "Talking Dead" kind of show. It's "Where Are They Now?" kind, it's about past contestants of "Shark Tank", how they're business doing.
So it's very logically to be Friday 8 PM, as they surely want to finally give Shark Tank compatible lead-in, see what can do it in such situation.

Spot said...

I would expect LMS and Cristela in repeats on day after Thanksgiving, and on 12/19/2014 (only 6 days before Christmas), and that's how I came to 22+16. You say originals on those two dates for 22 +20 ? Same difference.

Isn't 20/20 extremely cheap to produce, and much appreciated by affiliates as perfect lead-in into their local news? But in all reality, I don't have a clue. I mean, for that matter I'm inclined to have more trust in what you, Chris, or Spot have to say about the matter, than I trust my own opinion.

Spot said...

I misspoke and didn't convey my thoughts best. A "Where Are They Now?" premise (what I meant by after-the-show) feels more logical to put after said show. Tonally it makes sense to go from watching people pitch their ideas, get an investment to launch, and see how successful it is/was even if the cast of characters are different than the reverse.

But I do agree that Shark Tank's best lead-in would be itself.

Spot said...

Ok. It sounds like, then, you are really railing against NBC's piss-poor comedy development over the past few years. It wasn't reading that way.

But sometimes, though, you find pleasant surprises like The Office, The Middle, or How I Met Your Mother that started modestly but eventually became bigger deals than their inauspicious beginnings would have you suggest. I didn't think those shows would have traction but they eventually did without much lead-in support in their first seasons (Scrubs, Modern Family (r), and local programming respectively). NBC could develop one of those kind of shows unknowingly; why not give it a benefit those shows lacked with a strong, known lead-in to kick it up a notch? Won't know unless/until they try...

Spot said...

Yes, it would be. But I doubt they can produce 60 hours of Shark Tank per season. Then, isn't it logical they try and develop compatible reality show (whether it is Beyond the Tank or something else if it fails) to lead into Shark Tank, instead of incompatible and low-rated comedies (or, for that matter, low-rated news magazine) ?

Spot said...

The UK version aired between cycles of the parent series, so I wouldn't out it airing in summer in place of Shark Tank repeats.

Spot said...

After seeing how The Taste did on Thursdays and still getting renewed for a third season, I thought that should be the plan: programming it around Shark Tank. Clearly, though, The Taste has become gap programming to help ABC bridge the Fall and Spring seasons of its serialized dramas.

If any sitcoms are going to be Tank's lead-in, the idea of something retro-feeling that's going to skew older but still be family-friendly is the right one. I mean, the first time Shark Tank hit its series high was with a Malibu Country lead-in. At the very least shows in that vein would be more compatible for Tank specifically and Friday night generally than something like Happy Endings was or what Selfie would be.

Spot said...

Huh. No clamoring for a The 100 season 2 debut Question from the gallery? *Glances in omabin's direction...*



After being a pleasant surprise for its first season, especially airing into the summer and with having some Arrow reruns as a lead-in, The 100 is back for season 2. There's just one problem standing in the show's way. Can The 100 bat 1.000 for The CW?



The 100's first season average 0.60
Average with original Arrow lead-in: 0.6375 (Arrow's average: 0.8)

Average with rerun Arrow lead-in: 0.54


Arguably The CW's most impressive midseason show in maybe ever, it has some positives for tonight: with the Big 3 remaining mostly static in the hour it's used to the competition. Arrow is a tick stronger as it was in the Spring. The 100 gets a shot in The CW's stronger part of the calendar. And the network's been using some decent promo space for the returnee. There's just one wild card in its way. Actually, make that two: the World Series between the Giants and Royals (only the second World Series to have both AL and NL teams be the wild card). Baseball's 4-to-7 game season finale tends to ding Arrow; we saw that last night with The Flash, and both Supernatural and The Tomorrow People took larger-than-average dips in years past. This Series won't be as potent as last year's but it has to count for something more than Red Band Society. I think it can get some of the way back to the premiere, though it'd have a higher ceiling if this had debuted a week earlier.


Because my questions are just for shits and giggles, and I don't see the unrounded numbers, I'll just ask out to the tenth to make the "Push" option available.



The 100 Unofficial Over/Under/Push: 0.7

Spot said...

Malibu Country was one-time thing. That year ABC moved CMA on Thursday to heavily promote Reba, and Malibu's premiere day after. Malibu got over 2.0 ratings, boosted Shark Tank on that night, but MC never ever came even close to that number. In fact, it lost almost half of its audience during the first few weeks.
Point being, while theoretically it looks nice to have family comedy rated around 2.0 to lead into Shark Tank, it's impossible to happen in this day and age. Because, in unlikely case ABC would found such at all, they would promptly move that sitcom on Tuesday to fix holes there.

I'd like their Friday inventory next season to be:
60 hours of reality shows
30 hours of 20/20
15 hours of holiday repeats and specials

While in season 2013-14 it was like:
30 hours of reality shows
30 hours of 20/20
22 hours of comedies
15 hours of holiday repeats and specials
8 hours of comedies repeats

And I'd like this year to be transition period with 10 hours of Beyond the Tank eating into both comedy originals and repeats.

Now, if their new Friday 8PM reality show would be at 1.5 or close to it, bingo - they would have both keeper, and Shark Tank would do even better having both stronger and more compatible lead-in.
And if that reality would rate around 1.0, then they should renew it (because same as The Taste it would make more money than expensive scripted shows do with low/mid 1s ratings), but not for 30 hours like Shark tank. For 10 to 20 episodes, with immediate start of developing another reality show for that timeslot, one to be tested next winter or spring.
If it would rate bellow 0.8... well, at least they tried.

Spot said...

Push

0.6 or 0.7. Arrow should be at 0.7, so I cannot see The 100 at 0.8+. Series-low tying 0.5 seems inevitable later in the season, but I definitely don't expect it to happen already today. Between 0.6 and 0.7, I'm picking 0.7 because I want one show to be clear frontrunner in race between Reign/Jane/100 for renewal. I don't care which one, I just don't want any kind of dead race that would drag on until May.

Spot said...

The 100's big advantage over Reign and Jane the Virgin is that it'll be off the sked before March when the doldrums really kick in for The CW's shows. Though right now I wonder if Reign may get the Beauty and the Beast treatment.



With the network's new lean into more genre, Reign & Jane's advantage is that they give The CW some programming diversity. And, of course, the CBS Studios connection will count for something (see, again, BatB).

Spot said...

It has to be Push though I want to scream over

Spot said...

Under at a .6

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Unless they do split season thingy with with The 100. Like this:
8 episodes of The 100 in 2014.
The Messengers 13 episodes from January to early April.
followed by remaining 8 episodes of The 100.

I think it's very unlikely, but it has one advantage: if The Messengers would bomb hard, they can just say: "Not so much split season." and bring back The 100 earlier.

I must admit I don't understand those conspiracy theories about CBS Studios / WB ratio. It looks childish to me. I mean, why would they keep show that loses them money? For pride? It must be that some strange combination of money from Netflix / Canada / overseas makes BatB profitable.

Spot said...

I do think pride has something to do with it. If you are half-in on a network but you can't get any of your studio's product far enough along to make it sellable in additional markets, then why bother being involved? It would essentially be CBS Studios subsidizing The WB network with a different name, which is pretty much what's happened anyway. From the moment The WB/UPN merger was announced, I just wondered why they didn't stick with The WB name and just cherry-pick the best parts of UPN at the time (Top Model, Smackdown, the urban sitcoms, and maybe Veronica Mars)...

But the outside money has to also be part of it. I've heard that Beauty and the Beast recoups more money than expected in international markets. And Jane the Virgin looks like it could do the same since it's based on a telenovela format. Reign probably does well, too, with its sexy historical bent and international feel.

Spot said...

But that's exactly what I said. It was you who said they renewed BatB because "CBS Studios connection". I said I think it makes them money from some "strange combination of Netflix / Canada / overseas".

Spot said...

0.4. No idea why it was renewed.

Spot said...

Under (and yes, it is one of The CW's most impressive shows any season)

Spot said...

Agreed. Under, 0.6.

Spot said...

They're desperate for comedy to happen. Sooner or later, surely, it will happen. Right now, they just happen to have more of their strength concentrated in drama than any network since *at least* the CBS of the mid-aughts. (And, at this point, have the same amount of schedule time devoted to sitcoms as that CBS - two hours a week.)

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