Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/27/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • CABLE/FINALS UPDATE: Monday Night Football (6.9) had a season high by a wide margin, and it also edged the ratings high from 2012 (6.8) and 2013 (6.6). The last game to go higher was on 9/26/11 (7.2).
    • In broadcast land, ABC took a big hit after the Dallas pre-emption came out, putting Castle (1.6) at up by just a tenth week-to-week. CBS saw The Millers (1.7) drop to a more as-expected level, while Scorpion (2.3) went up to look like a bigger win (down just a tenth from last week). The Voice (3.7) adjusted up 0.1 and The Blacklist (2.5) down 0.1.
  • CBS' first The Big Bang Theory-less Monday was naturally lower, but overall they will probably be pretty happy with it. 2 Broke Girls (2.4) was just 14% below last year's premiere and beat all of its results from last spring after it lost the How I Met Your Mother lead-in. We'll see in future weeks if it was inflated by the Kim Kardashian guest spot, but it didn't drop too badly after Lindsay Lohan's appearance last spring. And The Millers (1.8), while still a clear weak link, certainly could've done worse than a three-tenth drop considering it had nearly double the lead-in last week. Scorpion (2.2) also fell but remained very much on the map on its first night without the benefit of Big Bang viewers.
  • The shows that had off nights last week - The Voice (3.6), The Blacklist (2.6) and Castle (1.9) - all bounced back by multiple tenths in the prelims. ABC is likely to drop in finals due to a Monday Night Football pre-emption, but it would take a massive drop for Castle not to be ahead of last week's ugly 1.5.
  • Fox inched down again with Gotham (2.2) and Sleepy Hollow (1.6), and the CW's Jane the Virgin (0.4) lost another tenth in week three.
  • All of this came against a massive rating for the Cowboys game on Monday Night Football. The household overnights were the highest for MNF since 2010. More after finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 1.9 19% -5%-0.1n/a 6/9 -10% -5% -8% 2.0
Castle 1.6 23% +7%+0.1-0.1 4/5 -24% +7% -22% 1.8
ABC:-2%-13%
2 Broke Girls 2.4 36% n/an/an/a 1/1 -14% -48% -20% 2.4
The Millers 1.7 31% -19%-0.4-2.2 2/2 -19% -19% -37% 1.7
Scorpion 2.3 28% -4%-0.1-0.4 6/6 n/a -4% +0% 2.3
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.6 23% -6%-0.1-0.1 4/5 -38% -6% +33% 1.7
CBS:-20%-6%
The Voice Mon 3.7 38% +9%+0.3n/a 5/6 -14% +9% -13% 3.5
The Blacklist 2.5 33% +4%+0.1+0.3 5/6 -19% +4% -18% 2.3
NBC:+8%-15%
Gotham 2.2 47% -4%-0.1n/a 6/6 n/a -4% -25% 2.2
Sleepy Hollow 1.6 44% -11%-0.2-0.1 6/6 n/a -11% -63% 1.5
Fox:-7%-48%
The Originals 0.6 58% +0%+0.0n/a 3/4 -40% +0% +50% 0.6
Jane the Virgin 0.4 47% -20%-0.1+0.0 3/3 n/a -20% +33% 0.5
CW:-9%+43%
Big5:-5%-21%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

33 comments:

Spot said...

JtV is about even with The Originals in terms of W18-49 and is even with W18-34, but I did think the general demo would hold up better three episodes in. Oh, well. It's my favorite new show, so it was pretty well inevitable the ratings wouldn't be great. I feel like Gotham is pretty well on a AoS like trajectory.

Spot said...

CBS had best case scenario happen. The Millers pulled a FWBL. Horrible retention from a huge lead in, but okay retention from 2 Broke Girls

Spot said...

First CW Power ratings are here!
(W18-34 and M18-34 might be a bit incorrect)

Sure renewals - by ratings The Originals would be only "likely renewal", but by cancellation bear rule it's sure
1.68 A18-49 The Flash (1.63 M18-34)
1.20 W18-34 The Vampire Diaries (0.84 A18-49)
0.97 A18-49 Supernatural (0.93 W18-34)
0.92 A18-49 Arrow (1.10 M18-34)
0.78 W18-34 The Originals (0.66 A18-49)


Flops - but, sadly, on the bubble, because they need to renew more than 5 dramas
0.63 W18-34 Jane the Virgin (0.49 A18-49)
0.53 W18-34 Reign (0.41 A18-49)
0.50 A18-49 The 100 (0.60 M18-34)

Spot said...

I think you mean 2 Broke Girls beat all its results from last spring... But either way, this is about as well as CBS could have expected. Considering that Scorpion hit a number that's roughly a tick higher than Mike & Molly/Mom's averages, that's also a win.


Odd that the shows hit last week bounced back even in the face of a strong Monday Night Football game.

Spot said...

Arrow is the most male skewing show on ~broadcast television with a 37% skew this season so far. I highly doubt that one isn't sold based on the M18-34 demo for the most part. Same thing goes for The 100, though to a lower degree.

Spot said...

75% retention for an 8h30 comedy only looks good if you compare it with a post MF or BBT lead-out really. Most of the times, the 8h30 comedy should grow compared to the 8h00 one since it has a better lead-in and airs in a higher viewed hour.

But I agree on the rest.

Spot said...

ABC affilaite aired MNF in Dallas. Should go down in finals.
The Voice - Taylor Swift made her guest appearance.

Spot said...

2 Broke Girls did well IMO, this is roughly 0.2 higher than I expected and some thought my predictions were already too positive. And The Millers could have crashed more I suppose. CBS's dramas held well afterwards.

Elsewhere, everything seems normal. NBC had a great night after last week's derail. And Jane will still go to Fridays despite the backorder IMO.

Spot said...

All the hit from the 2013-14 season are sophomore slumping hard. Sleepy Hollow, Resurrection, Agents of Shield, and the Millers are down HUGE year to year. Plus the Blacklist's spring run with ensure it joins this list. Funnily enough its the non hits that have potential to sophomore bounce. Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Mom, and The Goldbergs. Goldergs is the only one I say is locked for growth has the former 2 have big leads that may go away (Brooklyn has football fused Simpsons and Mom has Big Bang until January)

Spot said...

Time to accept that, no matter what the show is, CBS comedies have at least a common audience that is enough for them to hit at least mid to high 1s.


Even flops like FWBL, Bad Teacher or failures like The Millers prove it, so does We Are Men premiering to a 2.0. For instance, ABC viewers rejected tons of comedies over the past years like Apt. 23, Happy Endings, Mixology, selfie, MLS (I'm not even going to move to FOX or NBC because every comedy they do is flat out rejected).

Spot said...

It's crazy Jane got a backorder so quickly. Especially with the CW has such a stocked bench (Messengers, iZombie, Hart of Dixie, Beauty and the Beast). Might just be a CBS thing as it gave backorders to all of its new dramas despite having a stocked bench too (Undercover Boss, The Mentalist, CSI: Cyber, Battle Creek).

Spot said...

Spot, will there be Marry Me "First Two Weeks"?
Ironically, I planned to defer, then next week to pick what majority picked.

Spot said...

Which leads us to a few conclusions:
- People are willing to get hyped up for a show but to get easily tired too (not every show can repeat Lost and The Walking Dead).
- Lead-in matters
- Scandal is the last true multiple-season hit on TV right now, from lead-in dependent to outrating its lead-ins and being the biggest drama on TV.

Spot said...

The sad thing is Sleepy Hollow and Resurrection got larger lead ins this year and still dropped crazy. At least the others have an "excuse". ABC somehow managed to make Shield moving to a higher viewed hour a timeslot downgrade with Manhattan Love Story (.7). The Millers is losing a megahit lead in for 2 Broke Girls and The Blacklist is exiled to Thursdays.
Also, Scandal currently only has one season as a hit in Plus right now.

Spot said...

Few sitcoms actually grow at 8:30. Even an extra episode of Big Bang couldn't grow from itself there. Usually its when you have 2 anchor worthy comedies airing in the same hour. HIMYM/2BG and Middle/Suburatory season 1 or more recently Simpsons/Family Guy last year

Spot said...

Dads/ B99, Community/ P&R, The Middle/ The Goldbergs. And though this year it didn't happen, last year Big Bang/ Big Bang premiere.

Spot said...

Laura got a full season

Spot said...

I was trying to say that with Dancing and the Voice being shows that grow throughout, 8:30 isn't that much of an advantage on Mondays. I should also say it usually happens with 2 anchor canidates OR if the lead off is a total dud. (Dads and Community last year). Goldbergs is a great example though

Spot said...

I mentioned in Spot's year overview posts that all of last year's hits seemed to have a lot of caveats attached to them. Either very limited series (Resurrection), airings on very favorable portions of the calender (Sleepy Hollow), huge lead-ins (Millers, Blacklist) or abnormally high initial portion of season due to external hype (Shield). I am not sure much can be taken from these other than limited series being hard to work on broadcast.

I would also add The Originals as a hit for the CW last year and something that should have a long life, as The Goldbergs. To a lower extent, PD, Shield, Mom, Sleepy Hollow and B99 will also stick around for a while most likely.

Spot said...

Not shocking in a view of soft Constantine debut, and awful NBC comedies ratings.
What's most interesting here, is they didn't give back 9 to neither of 4 comedies (Nellie Andreeva says About a Boy also has 13 episodes order or so). That makes me think they maybe plan to have just one comedy block in midseason with The Biggest Loser on Thursday 8 PM.

As for "awful NBC comedies ratings"" - unbelievable, but NBC comedy department managed to make things even worse state than last season.

Last week - Spot's True ratings
1.5 Marry Me
1.4 About a Boy
1.3 Bad Judge
1.3 A to Z

Last season averages - Spot's True
1.57 Growing Up Fisher (13 episodes)
1.57 About a Boy (S1, 13)
1.38 Parks and Recreation (S6, 18)
1.34 Undateable (summer, 13)
1.28 Community (S5, 13)

Spot said...

I really don't think a second cycle of TBL is an option. It hasn't even been officially renewed as far as I know and I haven't heard anything about casting/ filming yet. I admit I don't follow those news that closely but I don't think it's possible.

I didn't know that about About a Boy. I am very sad about those news, I really like that show. NBC's comedy department is just awful.

Spot said...

Originals can be added to the sophomore slump list. It's -33% y2y. Thanks for adding to my point. It looks like the solids and marginals of yesteryear have the longest sheld life

Spot said...

I wouldn't count TO there though. It had a legitimate timeslot downgrade and I think it is doing as well as could have been expected. But okay I guess if you look only at pure y2y trends

Spot said...

I thought About a Boy is for 22 episodes, too.
But, Nellie today said: "About A Boy, which also needs a back order as it was a midseason debut last spring."
She knows her facts, and I always tend to believe her more than to myself. I mean, when it comes to facts, her ratings analysis is laughable.

Spot said...

Networks definitely don't trust their backups.


There are tons of benched dramas on NBC and CBS but considering how problematic they have been in some days, it's understandeable, so, let's keep shows with meh ratings because they can't get one more problem.

Spot said...

I'm leaning towards its cancelation, AAB ratings are what NBC need to not make it their The Millers, carrying a fraud for 5 seasons can do a lot of damage.


Aside from pity renewals, NBC will come up empty this season, late start for State of Affairs and no Chicago combo after The Voice are looking even worse right now.


But let's hope Blacklsit will score 2.5 (more like 1.5) against Scandal and Allegiance will fix a slot without a decent performer since ER, shall we, Mr Greenblatt?

Spot said...

Not really tons of benched dramas for NBC. Emerald City is nixed, Heroes: Reborn is announcet to be summer 2015, and all points to Shades of Blue being actually for 2015-16 season. A.D. is announced (or expected to be, I don't know) 6 x 2 hours starting from Eastern. That leaves:
Allegiance - announced to premiere 2/572015, Thu 10 PM
The Slap - 8 episodes - probably Sun 9 PM February & March
Aquarius - 13 episodes - probably Sun 10 PM from early February
The Odyssey - 13 episodes - probably Fri 10 PM from lateFebruary

Spot said...

Yes, exactly.
But, until today I (wrongly) assumed AaB is 22 episodes. So I thought there will be 2 comedy blocks in midseason, something like:
Tue 9 PM - Kimmy + Marry Me
Thu 8 PM - Parks + Mr. Robinson (followed by One Big Happy)
AaB benched with plan to replace the worst rated half-hour in spring

But if NBC decides to cap both Marry Me and AaB at 13 episodes, they can easily go with only one comedy block (or 2 in January, with 1 from February), as they have just total 38 episodes of those midseason entries. Not giving back 9 to any comedy today (including their designated pity renewal of the season Marry Me) can be a sign of a big difference - an hour of NBC comedy cut in midseason.

Spot said...

I agree with you, she usually knows these things when she says them (though she had an article saying that Mixology was heating up for a renewal last year lol)

Spot said...

Has Heroes Reborn truly been announced as summer only? I thought that one would fit very well Thursdays at 8 before The Blacklist.

Spot said...

Is February suitable for programming on Sundays though?
- 01/02/2015: The Super Bowl)
- 08/02/2015: Grammy Awards
- 15/02/2015: Nothing
- 22/02/2015 The Oscars

I would rather see them throwing The Apprentice to the wolves and air it there and use those dramas Mondays to replace the voice than to do it the other way around. Or Tuesdays, it's the same, though I expect Game Night to go there.

Spot said...

I still think they'll do that, unless they decide to burn off Kimmy Schmidt.

Spot said...

NBC has Super Bowl this year. But either way, by "February" I meant from 08/02/2015, of course. It's about episode count:
A.D = 6 x 2 hours = 4/5/2015 to 5/10/2015

The Slap = 8 episodes = 2/8/2015 to 3/29/2015

Aquarius = 13 episodes = ?
Perhaps premiere Monday 2/2/2015 behind The Voice 2nd cycle premiere. Episodes 2 and 3 at Sundays 08/02/2015 and 15/02/2015, repeat versus The Oscars, and then remaining 10 episodes.

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