Thursday, October 16, 2014

The 2014-15 Climate Center: Basics


The Climate Center is the latest way to keep up with some of this site's bigger-picture numbers on a week-to-week basis. It'll provide a running track of trends across the broadcasters, including individual networks, genres, and days of week/time of day. These will include the numbers that have gone into the A18-49+ theme posts, plus some new ones.

The "Basics" post covers year-to-year tendencies in extremely broad categories like overall viewing, broadcast viewing, and broadcast non-sports original series viewing (or the "league average").

These numbers are up to date through the end of the 2014-15 regular season: Wednesday, May 20. In this post only, the "TPUT" and "bc" go through the end of the calendar week, Sunday, May 24.

More Climate Center: Basics | Networks | Genres | Days/Times

Last season's Basics.



Week-by-week:

Week Ending TPUT y2y bc y2y LeAv y2y
19/28/201429.2 -8% 8.8 -3% 2.22 -11%
210/5/201429.4 -7% 8.1 -5% 1.96 -15%
310/12/201429.7 -6% 7.6 -6% 1.81 -10%
410/19/201429.5 -8% 8.0 -5% 1.81 -11%
510/26/201429.8 -8% 8.3 +1% 1.81 -10%
611/2/201430.4 -6% 7.4 -7% 1.79 -12%
711/9/201430.1 -8% 7.2 -14% 1.71 -12%
811/16/201430.8 -5% 7.2 -7% 1.83 -2%
911/23/201430.7 -6% 7.4 -10% 1.79 -6%
1011/30/201430.2 -4% 6.9 -6% 1.70 -12%
1112/7/201430.3 -8% 6.6 -16% 1.54 -18%
1212/14/201429.5 -8% 6.3 -8% 1.53 -16%
1312/21/201427.9 -7% 5.8 -0% 1.67 -13%
1412/28/201427.7 -6% 4.0 -12% 1.35 +8%
151/4/201529.4 -11% 5.1 -18% 1.40 -13%
161/11/201531.3 -7% 7.5 -3% 1.77 +1%
171/18/201530.4 -6% 6.4 -16% 1.55 -16%
181/25/201530.0 -10% 5.3 -30% 1.53 -14%
192/1/201532.1 -7% 9.9 -2% 1.90 -9%
202/8/201529.9 -12% 6.9 -26% 1.67 -19%
212/15/201529.2 -10% 6.7 -22% 1.59 -8%
222/22/201531.0 -2% 7.0 -9% 1.77 -2%
233/1/201529.7 -6% 6.2 -22% 1.87 -7%
243/8/201529.2 -5% 6.1 -7% 1.77 -7%
253/15/201528.4 -6% 5.7 -9% 1.76 -5%
263/22/201528.3 -7% 5.7 -6% 1.77 -0%
273/29/201528.4 -7% 5.5 -11% 1.56 -12%
284/5/201527.8 -10% 4.9 -23% 1.45 -17%
294/12/201527.7 -6% 5.7 -9% 1.47 -12%
304/19/201527.4 -6% 5.4 -1% 1.54 -5%
314/26/201528.4 -5% 5.4 -2% 1.48 -9%
325/3/201527.5 -7% 5.1 -14% 1.47 -12%
335/10/201526.7 -9% 5.1 -13% 1.42 -15%
345/17/201527.2 -5% 5.1 -13% 1.40 -19%
355/24/201525.6 -4% 4.4 -16% 1.77 -19%

Season-to-date:

Week Ending TPUTy2d y2dy2y bcy2d y2dy2y LAy2d y2dy2y ProjLA
19/28/201429.2 -8% 8.8 -3% 2.22 -11%1.68
210/5/201429.3 -8% 8.4 -4% 2.09 -13%1.64
310/12/201429.4 -7% 8.1 -5% 2.00 -12%1.66
410/19/201429.4 -7% 8.1 -5% 1.95 -12%1.66
510/26/201429.5 -8% 8.1 -4% 1.93 -12%1.67
611/2/201429.7 -7% 8.0 -4% 1.90 -12%1.66
711/9/201429.7 -7% 7.9 -5% 1.88 -12%1.67
811/16/201429.9 -7% 7.8 -6% 1.87 -10%1.69
911/23/201430.0 -7% 7.8 -6% 1.86 -10%1.70
1011/30/201430.0 -7% 7.7 -6% 1.85 -10%1.69
1112/7/201430.0 -7% 7.6 -7% 1.83 -11%1.68
1212/14/201430.0 -7% 7.5 -7% 1.81 -11%1.68
1312/21/201429.8 -7% 7.3 -7% 1.80 -11%1.67
1412/28/201429.7 -7% 7.1 -7% 1.79 -11%1.67
151/4/201529.6 -7% 7.0 -7% 1.78 -11%1.67
161/11/201529.7 -7% 7.0 -7% 1.78 -11%1.68
171/18/201529.8 -7% 7.0 -8% 1.76 -11%1.68
181/25/201529.8 -7% 6.9 -9% 1.75 -11%1.68
192/1/201529.9 -7% 7.0 -8% 1.76 -11%1.68
202/8/201529.9 -7% 7.0 -9% 1.75 -11%1.67
212/15/201529.9 -7% 7.1 -10% 1.74 -11.7%1.664
222/22/201529.9 -7% 7.1 -10% 1.74 -11.4%1.668
233/1/201529.9 -7% 7.0 -11% 1.75 -11.2%1.673
243/8/201529.9 -7% 7.0 -11% 1.75 -10.9%1.678
253/15/201529.8 -7% 6.9 -10% 1.75 -10.6%1.684
263/22/201529.8 -7% 6.9 -10% 1.75 -10.2%1.692
273/29/201529.7 -7% 6.8 -10% 1.74 -10.2%1.692
284/5/201529.7 -7% 6.8 -11% 1.73 -10.3%1.690
294/12/201529.6 -7% 6.7 -11% 1.72 -10.3%1.689
304/19/201529.5 -7% 6.7 -10% 1.72 -10.2%1.692
314/26/201529.5 -7% 6.7 -10% 1.71 -10.1%1.693
325/3/201529.4 -7% 6.6 -10% 1.70 -10.2%1.692
335/10/201529.3 -7% 6.6 -10% 1.69 -10.3%1.690
345/17/201529.3 -7% 6.5 -10% 1.68 -10.6%1.684
355/24/201529.2 -7% 6.5 -11% 1.68 -10.7%1.682



Click to expand for more on the "climate" numbers used herein.

TPUT - This is an ESTIMATED average of how many people are watching TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • I derive these numbers by adding up all the ratings and dividing by all the shares in each of the 42 half-hours each week. That means there is some error relative to the numbers Nielsen actually releases. Sadly we don't regularly have access to those. I always advise not to rely heavily on these numbers for any one show in any one week, but the hope is that the error is minimized across a 42-timeslot sample every week.
  • I include the Old Methodology adjustment, which makes the number more like a measurement of how many people watch primetime programming Live + SD, rather than a measurement of how many people watch any TV (including old DVR stuff) from 8:00 to 11:00. This makes the number perhaps less intuitive in a vacuum, but it's pretty much a wash when making week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons, which is what we're really interested in.
bc - This is an average of how many people are watching national broadcast TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • This does NOT include the 10:00 adjustment used in the True calculation which attempts to account for Fox/CW programming and stronger cable. Again, that perhaps hurts the number in a vacuum, because the 10:00 numbers being used only include three networks, so I'm averaging timeslots that are somewhat apples-to-oranges. But again, it's a wash when making comparisons because I treat it that way all the time. It would not really change week-to-week or year-to-year comparisons, and that's what I mostly care about.
  • Another important note here is that these numbers include the preliminary averages for "sustaining" programming like presidential debates and commercial-free benefit concerts whose numbers are typically omitted from traditional Nielsen averages. I might eventually omit these from this particular calculation, but they're needed on my spreadsheets to 1) make PUT calculations in those timeslots and 2) create a competition number for the entertainment shows that air against them.
LeAv - This is a measurement of how many people watch the average moment of original entertainment series programming on the big four networks. Meaning, no sports, no reruns, no specials, no movies, no sustaining programming included. This is the number around which this site's A18-49+ number is calculated.

ProjLA - This applies the current year-to-year trend to the final 2013-14 league average. In other words, this is what the final 2014-15 league average will be if the current year-to-year trend continues for the rest of the season.

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