Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/6/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC got its usual uptick for DWTS (1.9) and Castle (2.0). The Big Bang Theory (4.5) and The Voice (3.7) also got a bit better, while The Blacklist (2.6) inched down.
  • Week three was not as good to the drama newbies as week two. After an incredibly steady week two, CBS' Scorpion took a far bigger 19% drop to 2.5 in week three. To add to the CBS troubles, NCIS: Los Angeles (1.6) took a big week two dip and remained well behind Castle (1.9) at 10/9c. The Big Bang Theory (4.4) was also down a bit more.
  • Fox fared a little better as Gotham (2.5) was down a reasonable 11%, close to the same drop as last week, and its lead-out Sleepy Hollow (1.7) also steadied.
  • The CW opened its Monday lineup with the premiere of The Originals (0.7). Though this was down a tenth from its season finale, it was on a new night and without last year's strong companion Supernatural (though there was an SPN recap special (0.5) for this night). So it's probably about as good as they could've hoped for, and it looks like it should be a big improvement over what the CW had on Monday last year.
  • NBC was slightly down but still dominant with The Voice (3.6) and The Blacklist (2.7).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 1.9 19% +6%+0.1n/a 4/6 -5% +6% -6% 2.0
Castle 2.0 26% -9%-0.2+0.1 2/2 +5% -9% +3% 2.1
ABC:-0%-3%
The Big Bang Theory 4.5 36% -6%-0.3n/a 4/4 -12% -6% +50% 4.2
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.9 31% -6% +61% 2.4
Scorpion 2.5 27% -19%-0.6-0.2 3/3 n/a -19% +14% 2.3
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.6 23% -16%-0.3-0.6 2/2 -38% -16% +33% 1.6
CBS:-13%+34%
The Voice Mon 3.7 38% -8%-0.3n/a 3/3 -20% -8% -20% 3.5
The Blacklist 2.6 33% -7%-0.2-0.3 3/3 -16% -7% -16% 2.3
NBC:-7%-19%
Gotham 2.5 50% -11%-0.3n/a 3/3 n/a -11% +22% 2.5
Sleepy Hollow 1.7 48% +0%+0.0-0.3 2/3 -39% +0% -39% 1.5
Fox:-7%-13%
The Originals 0.7 65% n/an/an/a 1/1 -30% +133% +75% 0.7
Supernatural (R) 0.5 59% +67% +67% 0.5
CW:+100%+71%
Big5:-5%-2%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

35 comments:

Spot said...

I think TO did well. This was what I was expecting though I was hoping for a 0.8.

Spot said...

I see the Voice with a 3.6. Is it a 3.6 or 3.9?

Spot said...

Scorpion is approaching zone where its main asset is underwhelming Stalker ratings... but is still pretty safe unless Stalker miraculously hovers at around 2.0 for the entire fall.

The Originals isn't exactly the winner with 0.7 A18-49 (-30% y2y) and 1.0 W18-34 (-29% y2y), but that's actually the best CW could expect against insanely strong Monday competition.

Procedurals battle: NCIS: Los Angeles loser, Castle winner, The Blacklist big winner. So far, but nothing indicates it could change.

Spot said...

Dang, we might see NCIS: LA cancelled this year. It's only a tick ahead of Hostages' pace. 1.9-1.6 to 1.8-1.5. With them having a new NCIS to push to syndication and 120+ episodes at the end of the year, they might cut their loses

Spot said...

I really don't get where people are getting this idea from. I do not see any scenario in which LA is cancelled unless it does very low 1s a la Hostages/ Intelligence and even then I don't think it would be sure .Right now, I say risk of cancellation is zero %. Have you seen the amount of cancellable hours CBS has?

Spot said...

So far so good for The Originals. The CW should be able to have two hours up y2y with this and The Flash. I do wish now that they had gone ahead and debuted Jane the Virgin since TO will probably drop a tick next week.

The results for Dancing with the Stars and Castle makes me think ABC affiliates didn't preempt their night for Monday Night Football (I know WJLA in DC didn't since Castle was recording when I got home). So the Finals Adjustments Fairy may get Castle above a 2.0 and widen the gap between it and NCIS: LA.

Is Gotham going to be Fox's highest rated show for this week?

Spot said...

3.6 compared to last weeks finals of 4.0.

Spot said...

I think TO is a winner. It didn't really fall that much from its premiere/ finale considering it changed to a harder timeslot after a soft spring.

This being said, probably all Monday shows are desperately waiting for Big Bang (and Blacklist to a lower extent) to leave the night so that they can breathe a little. The Originals is also probably included in this group.

Spot said...

I think it's more likely that NCIS: LA becomes a possible candidate for a move to Fridays or Sundays a la CSI: Miami, The Mentalist, and CSI than outright cancellation, especially if Blue Bloods and Hawaii Five-O remain weak.

Spot said...

ABC's old workhorse Monday lineup seemed remarkably steady relative to the competition. Maybe I'm being too generous to Castle but wasn't last week's premier the resolution of last Spring's cliffhanger? A three tenths drop doesn't seem all that unusual for the second post-cliffhanger episode...and this is before the Sorcerer's Apprentice waves his magic finals adjustment wand.

Spot said...

Btw Spot, off topic here, but when will you be doing the next War post for my favorite tv show Big Brother? :-)

Spot said...

The Fantasia mickey mouse mysterious magic theme seems appropriate for Disney-owned ABC's otherworldly adjustments :)

Spot said...

I don't remember when was the last time CBS canceled veteran drama from weekday schedule. They usually cancel something from Fri/Sun, and move something to vacated weekend slot(s).
Before this disappointing NCIS: LA ratings it looked Person of Interest is prime candidate for move to weekend in next fall's schedule, with Elementary accompanying it in unlikely case they would move two dramas there.
Now it looks NCIS: LA is frontrunner for move to a weekend night, followed by Person of Interest.

Spot said...

If the Tuesday repeat of the Family Guy/Simpsons crossover kept in line with how well they usually repeat compared to originals, it would be better than a 2.5... Not that it will happen

Spot said...

The only thing that would probably rate higher than Gotham would be a live feed of FOX president being thrown into a den of hungry lions or worse, being forced to spend a week in Utopia.:)

Spot said...

I think Stalker will be the first drama to be cut by CBS. Tepid premier ratings and the unanimous critical drubbing of the show and simultaneous public shaming of CBS for airing it should make a Stalker cancellation a no-brainer. The NCIS franchise is like twinkies, they'll be around long after mankind has perished.

Spot said...

ABC actually stands for ''Adjustment Broadcast Company.'' :-)

Spot said...

The mystery/cliffhanger is not ''solved.'' More questions were answered but a few more were asked last night, and very well done in my opinion. This story is going to continue for awhile but I suspect it won't be visited every week.

Spot said...

Probably in about 2 weeks.

Spot said...

I think it matters what happens tonight. Person of Interest upticking is a big step in the right direction. A 1.8 out of a 2.3 isn't mindblowing or anything, but it looks better to keep its slot than LA's 1.6 out of a 2.5. If Person of Interest holds up I'd have it stay put

Spot said...

I think critical stuff plays 0% in CBS' decisions. Stalker was never going to win awards. What hurts Stalker is its mediocre ratings in a valuable slot. NCIS: NO is doing so-so retention in a competitive slot. Stalker is doing mediocre retention is a lot void of serious competition. CSI: Cyber is an easy plug in that slot. Or maybe even Battle Creek

Spot said...

Ahahah

Spot said...

Maybe I am vastly underestimating Elementary but I believe it will become quite clear that will be the prime candidate for moving to a weekday, not POI or LA. It's my understanding at least, I could be proven wrong.

In regards to your question, I asked the same thing last year somewhere and I was told it was Without a Trace. I didn't follow the ratings back then so I do not know the circumstances surrounding it.

Spot said...

The only show I could think of would be The Simpsons if Fox has the late afternoon game. With Family Guy being a repeat, it's the best shot for Fox to have a second show break a 2.x in general.

Spot said...

Yes and no.
No, because that's only one data point out of 22 to 24 episodes that those CBS procedurals air during one season.
Yes, because those early episodes data is most indicative.

I see it as a race of 3 newbies and 3 veteran 10 PM shows for 4 weekday slots in fall 2015-16. Because I assume CBS would premiere 2 new dramas next time around (much more CBSish than 4 this year, or only 1 last year). Theoretically, Battle Creek, and CBS: Cyber are in the race too, but CBS midseason drama... like, never.
Big difference being: Rookie will be axed if it fails to the bottom of that pack, while veteran show just gets kicked to a weekend night.

Currently Scorpion and NCIS: New Orleans seem to be leaders in that race. But as I said above, it's a long season.

Spot said...

Spot's average True for 2013-14 says Elementary was the strongest 10 PM CBS show:
1.93 Elementary
1.88 CSI
1.85 Person of Interest

I think difference was even more ahead other two, because in rare C3 ratings publicly known, Elementary is always among shows with biggest gain in C3 compared to Live+SD.
Spot's True doesn't bring money, A18-49 brings, but the point is Elementary did OK against monster called Scandal, and I cannot see CBS would risk trying something else against Shonda, especially not rookie drama.
Against moving it to a weekend night also says it's CBS productions that at the end of this season still won't have 88 episodes under its belt.
Of course, if it would be clearly the weakest 10 PM CBS show, they probably would move it to weekend. But with NCIS: LA ratings of 1.9 and 1.6, and PoI returning at 1.8 it's hard to see how Elementary could be way bellow those too.

Spot said...

Thank you. I'm here all week. Please remember to tip your waitress. ;D

Spot said...

The only three examples I could find in the last 10 years were Without A Trace, Jericho (technically), and Judging Amy, and they all had that 10pm Tuesday slot.

Spot said...

With some luck, I think ABC actually has a shot of beating FOX on Mondays. (Which will be really bad news for FOX)

Spot said...

The gap has certainly been closing (Week/FOX/ABC):
- Week 1: 2.60/2.03
- Week 2: 2.25/ 1.93
- Week 3: 2.10/ 1.93

But I really feel that we have yet to see the true dynamics of this night since The Blacklist and Big Bang are only here temporarily and they are distorting everything, especially Big Bang. ABC could be looking at second place here, especially now that The Millers will come Mondays instead of Mom. And they are a serious contender to win during The Bachelor weeks (depending on how often they run Castle originals but still).

My guess is:
Fall: NBC | CBS | FOX | ABC
Winter: ABC | CBS | FOX | NBC
Spring: NBC | CBS | ABC | FOX (though it's a true tossup between ABC and CBS)

Spot said...

It's a bit insane how much stronger Monday is than the other days! Across the first two weeks, it averaged a 2.46! For comparison, Tuesdays and Sundays averaged a ~1.96 whereas Wednesday and Thursday averaged ~1.75 and Fridays did a 1.05.


Being half a point stronger than the next best night is crazy. However, two of the biggest heavy lifters (Big Bang Theory and Blacklist) are only here temporarily so I feel like things will slow down considerably once they leave.

Spot said...

The C3 point about Elementary is very much true. I think it's one of the very few shows in which the fact that C3, and not L+SD, are used might make a meaningful difference in terms of relative position compared to the other shows on its network. So I agree that Elementary is more valuable than raw numbers indicate. However, that's not a very good argument to say that the show won't move because in theory, if the value of the show comes from people DVRing it, then it would probably be ok to move it and still get those revenue streams from DVR.
Regarding the TRUE thing, while I can definitely understand why it happened (lowest rated and most incompatible lead-in + strongest competition out off all 10pm shows sans maybe monday), again I think that's an argument to move the show. If you are CBS and actually believe the show is stronger than the current placement is giving it opportunity to show, wouldn't it be better used elsewhere?


This being said, I do understand your argument that launching something in that slot next year would be equivalent to launching a show on Mondays last season/ this season. And if Stalker really does flop, they might be happy enough moving POI and launching something on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Spot said...

Jeez, isn't FOX sad!

Spot said...

Out of slot repeats are usually a different beast, I don't think you can extrapolate like that .

Spot said...

It was mostly a joke. Of course nothing on FOX has a chance as animation domination is in repeats this Sunday. Anyways, The Simpsons got a 3.6 in 2010 for a repeat post Idol and a 2.9 in 2013 post Football. Random Family Guy repeats this summer were pulling .7-.8, so it will probably improve on Utopia

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.