Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/30/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another big day at the adjustment bureau as Selfie (1.6) and Manhattan Love Story (1.5) took two-tenth leaps that might buy them more short-term time than originally thought (but the long-term prospects still look dim). Agents of SHIELD (1.8), Forever (1.4), The Voice (4.1) and New Girl (1.3) also upticked, while Chicago Fire (2.3) dropped.
  • ABC's nearly week-long streak of good luck came to a decisive halt on Tuesday #2 as new comedies Selfie (1.4) and Manhattan Love Story (1.3) bombed. It's a particularly devastating blow for the much heavier-promoted Selfie, which was not able to display any separation from even its much-hated lead-out Manhattan. ABC could spring into action pretty quickly on this night because of how things went in the subsequent two hours. Agents of SHIELD (1.7) plummeted to a new low (though it tends to adjust up, so it may not end up being an outright low), while the premiere week underdog story that was Forever (1.3) came to a crashing halt with a whooping 28% drop. Forever remained a big improvement in a historically awful timeslot for ABC, but the long-term prospects look much darker now.
  • CBS and NBC had another night of good week two holds as NCIS (2.6) dropped about 10%, newbie NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) was promisingly down just two tenths from last week and Person of Interest (1.8) actually inched up. NBC's The Voice (4.0) held up again and Chicago Fire (2.4) was down two tenths (maybe three after finals).
  • Fox's New Girl (1.2) lost another tenth, but The Mindy Project (1.1) gained one back.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 1.6 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +0% -52% 1.6
Manhattan Love Story 1.5 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -17% -53% 1.6
Agents of SHIELD 1.8 45% -14%-0.3-0.2 2/2 -45% -14% +0% 1.9
Forever 1.4 31% -22%-0.4-0.3 3/3 n/a -24% +87% 1.7
ABC:-16%-18%
NCIS 2.6 18% -10%-0.3n/a 2/2 -26% -10% -26% 2.6
NCIS: New Orleans 2.3 18% -8%-0.2-0.3 2/2 n/a -6% -13% 2.1
Person of Interest 1.8 21% +6%+0.1-0.2 1/2 -14% +3% -12% 1.9
CBS:-6%-18%
The Voice Tue 4.1 38% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 -9% +0% -8% 3.8
Chicago Fire 2.3 34% -12%-0.3+0.0 2/2 -12% -13% -13% 2.0
NBC:-3%-9%
Utopia Tue 0.8 51% +0%+0.0n/a 4/5 n/a -6% -41% 1.0
New Girl 1.3 70% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/3 -32% +0% -32% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.1 59% +10%+0.1+0.0 2/3 -27% +10% -27% 1.3
Fox:+0%-34%
iHeartRadio Music Festival p2 0.4 51% +0% +60% +0% 0.5
CW:+60%+0%
Big5:-4%-17%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

26 comments:

Spot said...

And that is why the networks hid the comedies. Wow. That absolutely stunned me. I figured that at least Selfie might get out of the gate, but no...

Spot said...

Selfie and Manhattan Love Story were eminently predictable. Both are things ABC has proven incapable of doing well in the past. Both were excoriated by critics. Selfie was available online for the hate-watching crowd that a handful expected to show up last eve. Now we see how long either lasts, since they're both having a deleterious effect on the rest of Tuesdays, and if I recall ABC has abundant replacements.

Forever, it seems, will soon be in need of its own replacement. ForNever indeed.

It wouldn't surprise me if NCIS:NOOOOOOOOOOOO keeps dropping those little bits from here. It literally put me to sleep last night. Of course, there could be those actually entertained by this enterprise who will stick with it. Which means it could stabilize at an acceptable number in the near future.

It appears that Fox programming actually wishes to fight off the sub-1 slip-up for as long as humanly possible. But at these numbers, we will be able to talk of it soon.

Spot said...

While this was a very predictable long term result, I didn't think it was going to happen right away. I kind of thought this result was possible for Manhattan but coming from a much higher rated Selfie. Damn.

I am disapointed about the comedies itself but more than that I am worried about MAOS. And I honestly don't know how can ABC help it. My guess is that as strange as it sounds they probably launch The Whispers at 8 and not at 10. Forever probably gets to hang there. Damn!

Spot said...

ABC's ridiculously large and frequent upwards adjustments could strike again, but without them the 8pm hour looks grim. Whoever is naming these ABC sitcoms needs to go, Selfie is right up there with Cougar Town and Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23.

Spot said...

I don't think ABC has that many replacements. They have:
1) The Whispers
2) Members Only
3) The Taste
4) Fresh Off the Boat
5) Astronaut Wives Club

I think that's it or am I forgetting something? The Whispers is a sure thing to come near Shield as it was since the upfronts but other than that nothing really fits very well. And remember that at least some of this stuff will be needed to bridge Thursdays.

Spot said...

I think we can agree no one expected 93% retention out of Manhattan Love Story. I was really disappointed by how Selfie did. I'd seen all sorts of ads, and even different ads! (New shows Scorpion, NCIS: New Orleans, Forever, and Blacklish all seemed to show the same ad all summer)

Spot said...

not a very exciting day all over.

Spot said...

Ouch, ABC. But their shows usually adjust up.
Ouch, Fox. But that's old news.

Though, there is one new thing - Variety article about ad prices hints Fox midseason dramas schedule is:
Mon - Wayward Pines
Wed - Empire
Thu - Glee
Fri - Backstrom

However, that's based on deals made during upfronts in late May / early June. Now that Fox (and advertisers) learned Utopia is a flop, it's pretty sure Backstrom is headed to Tuesday night. There's only two questions:
#1 Does Backstrom premieres in midseason, or already in November after baseball?
#2 If answer to #1 is "in midseason", then what's Tue 8 PM during Nov/Dec: Utopia (to recoup costs somewhat) or MasterChef Junior (surely it cannot be even worse lead-in for comedy block) ?

Spot said...

In this case, we all win, really.

Spot said...

Thursday bridge should be The Taste.
Friday 8 PM should be Shark Tank spinoff Beyond The Tank.
With Last Man Standing double pumped at some point to make the room for it.
And that would cause Tuesday 8 PM at (same or other) point to be Fresh Off the Boat + Cristela (or Selfie if Cristela bombs even harder than Selfie).

Spot said...

Darn. As I said in my "over" prediction yesterday, I only went over because I wanted it to be over, not b/c I thought the shows would actually be successful. But alas.

Spot said...

The new comedies flopped, I expect a drop to under 1.0 next week. With that said ABC is dead on this night as is FOX, The CW may just make a splash and take 3rd...wouldn't that be interesting?

Spot said...

I wouldn't put much stock (if any) in those schedule predictions. Every year they come out and turn out to be pretty inaccurate. Sure they get some stuff correct but those are the no brainers most of all.

Also, I sincerely doubt Backstorm will go to Tuesdays. NCIS may be down but I don't see FOX having any interest in throwing a procedural at it. I also doubt Glee ends up on Thursdays, how would that work?

Spot said...

ABC could also bring back Dancing with the Stars Results on Tuesdays for at least this cycle to lead into SHIELD. It's used to facing The Voice and would be a sturdier base.

Spot said...

American Idol Results/Glee or Idol Results/new sitcom/Glee.

Not that I think that's a good idea at all. But the question remains: does Fox really want to throw any show they think is promising against Scandal and The Blacklist Thursdays at 9:00?

Spot said...

Just when I stop hating on ABC for once... =/

Spot said...

You have a point, I had momentously forgotten about the blacklist. That kind of prevents the Bones/Backstorm pairing. But I still don't think going up against the voice and ncis is the answer to avoid scandal and the blacklist.

Spot said...

That was the most obvious solution and I left it out on purpose. I really dislike that idea based on principle alone. As well as DWTS held up last year, the truth remains that ABC should continue to phase out to a schedule that has no DWTS. Going back to put it on Tuesday would be moving backwards. I understand it would give them short term gains but based on what it represents, I am really against it. I don't expect to be able to sell anyone on this argument, but I feel quite convinced about it.

In addition, the transition of DWTS to Shield is probably second only to the transition of Apartment 23 to Private Practice a few years ago.

ABC's schedule had two flaws:
- Nashville
- No compatible pieces surrounding Shield.

Both are showing now so it's a matter of minimizing the losses and move forward. Considering last year they had 4 full hours of DOA freshman shows practically the entire year (Super Fun Night | Mixology, Trophy Wife, Betrayal, Wonderland, Lucky 7 | Killer Women | Mind Games), I think they can live with 1 (or even 2 if Forever goes there) for the fall. The only real issue though is if it has lasting effects on Shield.

I honestly don't know what a best solution would have been. The Whispers is the only piece of compatible programming they have in store and unlike the previous year, I don't think there was an obvious pilot that was passed on (Big Thunder). There is also absolutely no other day for which Shield can be moved so that's not a solution. They need compatible programming, period. God knows that if TGIT and Wednesday proved something was the importance of compatible programming.

Spot said...

ABC also has Secrets and Lies. And really, who doesn't want to watch Ryan Phillipe be accused of murder for 13 episodes?

Spot said...

I doubt Cristela ever leaves Fridays, it doesn't seem like something ABC would do.

If that was their plan or even their backup plan, it would make much more sense to start the season double pumping LMS regularly and only premiering Cristela there if it was not needed on Tuesday.

Also, is the Shark Tank spin off even confirmed to be for this season? If it, I would simply launch it Tuesdays at 8 and call it a day.

Spot said...

It's not question if Glee on Thursday would work. It won't. It's that only other two options are even worse. Young skewing show isn't a good fit for Friday. While last spring Glee at Tuesday 8 PM was epic fail. At Thursday 9 PM behind Idol at least Glee wouldn't lead into anything.

In turn, if Wayward Pines is Monday, and Glee Thursday, then only remaining options for Backstrom are Tuesday and Friday. In that case, I'd fully expect them to sample it on Tuesday. They still can dump it to Friday if it flops, no need to actually premiere it on Friday.

Spot said...

Beyond the Tank is for this season. I'm not aware of any other information, so I guess premiere could be anywhere between January to March.

Spot said...

Principle? What about the principle of not forfeiting a time slot for the next three months? Especially one leading into a sophomore you want to use to promote Avengers 2?

Spot said...

That's very interesting to know, I didn't know. Will ABC try to use it on its own to anchor Tuesdays or will they shuffle Fridays to pair the two?

Spot said...

No, he meant replacements. Backups. And those two shows you're mentioning are already slotted.

Secrets & Lies - Thursday 10 PM, premieres around 3/19/2015 because HTGWM has 15-16 episodes only.

American Crime - Sunday 9 PM, premieres almost surely 3/1/2015 (7 days after The Oscars), because Resurrection has 14-15 episodes order (by some sources only 13).

Spot said...

Ah, I understand now. Thanks!

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