Tuesday, October 7, 2014

First Two Weeks, Forever


WEEK ZERO (Monday 10/9c preview)
Rating: 1.7
Lead-in: Dancing with the Stars (2.2 overall, 2.5 at 9:30)
Competition: Under the Dome (1.8), The Blacklist (3.4).


WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.8
Lead-in: Agents of SHIELD (2.1 overall, 2.1 at 9:30)
Competition: Person of Interest (1.7), Chicago Fire (2.6).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.4 (-22%)
Lead-in: Agents of SHIELD (1.8 overall)
Competition: Person of Interest (1.8), Chicago Fire (2.3).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Wednesday, October 8 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

73 comments:

Spot said...

The toughest call to make so far.

Can someone explain the "defer" option to me again? Preferably using small words. There's a penalty either way for using it, right?

Spot said...

If you defer, a win is only +1 point, and a loss is -1. I don't think you can specify confidence.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident). ABC has a ton of midseason options, they're not going to bother keeping around something at a 1.4 by week two.

Spot said...

OK, that makes sense, thanks.

Spot said...

There are more mitigating circumstances that cut both ways, making this one the most difficult one yet.


Positive: ABC's done way worse in this hour (*waves at Lucky 7, Killer Women, and Mind Games*). And growing a tick between the preview behind Dancing with the Stars and the timeslot debut behind SHIELD, even with SHIELD being several ticks weaker than Stars, was promising.

Negative: That ugly 22% drop. It shows that this could be a very lead-in dependent show a la Body of Proof.


Right now I'd argue ABC's definite problem hours to address next season will be Sundays at 9, Sundays at 10, Tuesdays at 8, and Wednesdays at 10. Given that one of those hours could easily be a comedy block and at least one may be patched by a midseason drama, that leaves 2 hours for new dramas somewhere on ABC's schedule for next season. Adding a third, Tuesdays at 10, isn't unworkable.


Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

I'm here for the win man! I want those points!

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Toughest call so far. I am going with a cancel, not confident

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

I don't really get the whole "ABC has tones of midseason options" mentality that's been going around this year. They have Astronaut Wives Club, Members Only, The Whispers, The Taste and Fresh off the Boat unscheduled and they need stuff to air in the hiatus of the Sunday and the Thursday dramas (only OUAT has an announced replacement). Secrets and Lies and American Crime are not available since they will replace Murder and Resurrection come spring. I don't think their bench is that deep.

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Only few among CBS dramas rate better than NCIS: New Orleans, and only Scorpion among rookies. And I don't expect midseason entries to change situation at all.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

ABC will renew 7 dramas, 8 at most.
Among 10 currently airing dramas Forever is already after two episodes down to a tier 7th-to-9th, being clearly ahead only of Revenge in the renewal race.
It means even in unlikely case it doesn't drop much over course of 22 episodes (if it gets back 9 at all, we'll know more after few more data points), plus Nashville and Resurrection both would collapse, Forever still would need 5 of 6 midseason dramas to flop (or all 6 if Nashville is somehow renewed for syndication reasons).

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Just to go against the tide (which is usually a bad idea):

Renew (Not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Though good for the timeslot (especially week 1), the week 2 is pretty meh and I doubt it's going to stay at that level. No 'saving face' renewal needed either with a very successful rookie drama launched elsewhere

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident). It's improving its timeslot, which is good, but so was Revolution last year. I really want to defer, but having 4 data points seems like cheating.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident). I'm not 100% on it by any means, but after seeing the week three number for Scorpion I'm also more than 67% on it, so math says to take the chance.

Spot said...

At first I wondered what you're talking about. Then I remembered you think of How to Get Away with Murder. That show has so good ratings, that I've already forgotten it's a rookie show. For a brief moment, at least.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident).

This is more a vote of confidence in ABC than a vote of no confidence in Forever, to be honest!

Spot said...

Renew (Confident). I wasn't confident before I saw Monday's ratings. With Scorpion down to a 2.5 and LA a mere 1.6, it l

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

ABC also has Agent Carter to fill in for SHIELD at midseason.

Unless ABC is going to try pairing it with Shark Tank on Fridays, I can see The Taste for the 2 hour route again on Thursdays. (I'd argue that if that's the case and ABC isn't slotting a drama at 10:00 that the night go Shark Tank (r) / The Taste instead of the other way around.) Throwing The Taste onto Sundays is less likely but also probable if they don't want to throw more scripted shows other than Galavant into the Event Season breach.


But I think the back-up mentality comes from the idea that ABC may have some renewable options out of them. Agent Carter is the best of the bunch, but this crop is at least more in ABC's wheelhouse and has sturdier support on the schedule overall.

Spot said...

Yes, I forgot to mention Agent Carter but that one is also "taken" already so it's not an available replacement.

I think it's a bit of a shame that they will just give up on Thursdays during winter like that which will bring down their entire average for the season. Why not Wives Club | Members Only | The Taste? Too much? Probably. But I would like to see them being serious at least about one of the three hours instead of waving such a big white flag like that.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident). The show held up pretty well in week two, but so did Scorpion and then fall in week three, but I don't think it's going to happen to NCIS: NO.

Spot said...

The thing is, last season ABC used The Oscars to promote hell out of Resurrection. And it payed off. This season, surely they'll use exactly the same strategy for American Crime, of for Secret & Lies, or for both.
So I fully understand people expecting at least one of midseason/spring dramas to be renewed. I actually expect it too. In turn, it means more dramas from the fall schedule will be axed, more than it might look at first glance. It doesn't matter if those would be cancelled next week, or in May - Spot's question is only: renew-or-cancel?

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident). Forever is looking pretty good in comparison with everything this timeslot has had, but ABC is doing better this year than last year so it's a tough question. I can see Forever around the 1.3-1.6 for most of the fall and then falling into low 1's and ultimately getting the boot, but the show can surprise and hold up much better that's why I'm not confident.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

It's not all in the ratings, there's also cost. The Taste and similar stuff is very cheap, and ABC is much in black even with 1.0 ratings. While those dramas cost 2 or 3 times more, so perhaps even 1.5 ratings are not enough for ABC to just break even. Given that, I understand them being reluctant to try it in January on Thursday 8 PM leading from local programming, or on Sunday 9 PM leading out of Galavant. Airing with Bachelor lead-in, or similar? Now, that would be OK.
Anyway, for those backup dramas, they'll try to find slot with better support, if possible. And I agree with it.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel confident

Spot said...

Renew confident

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Part of a franchise that's a moneymaker in the syndication farm? 2nd highest freshman for CBS thus far? No planned schedule change to throw things off? Obvious.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

I was thinking of doing not confident, but then I learned that Forever has very little chance. It's at Revenge and Nashville numbers and isn't a veteran (Revenge) nor close to syndication (Nashville). Now, I think Revenge might be over with, though that will depend on the future, but even still, SHIELD, Castle, the Shonda 3, and Once already fill up next year as they are really likely, or almost guaranteed. And that's excluding the midseason with American Crime and Secrets and Lies getting prime spots and could have Oscars promotion behind them, and the wild cards of Whispers, Members Only, and Astronauts Wives Club. Forever, while a timeslot improvement, will get lost in the shuffle.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Yeah, that's why my confident call was couched as a vote of confidence in ABC. :)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)
The ratings say yes, but I think NCIS:LA's Monday run will tell us more than NCIS:NO itself. If LA continues downward, CBS may rethink populating the schedule with spinoffs that fall apart when taken away from the original.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)



This will settle around a 1.0-1.1 - ABC will reckon they can do better.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident) -- just because it has NCIS in its title

Spot said...

Cancel (confident).

Spot said...

Renew (confident).

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew confident.

Spot said...

Cancel confident

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel confident

Spot said...

Renew confident

Spot said...

I realize cost is a part of the equation, that's why I said that investing in only one of the three hours would be ok. But I get it if they just go down the taste route.

However, I am not really sure where else they can launch stuff. I suppose Tuesdays will be wide open sans Shield but is there really a good support system there? The only other place I see is Wednesdays at 10 if they kick out Nashville (even if that one is actually holding a bit better than I thought it would).

I would like to see ABC midseason be:
Tuesday Winter: Beyond the Tank | Agent Carter | Forever
Tuesday Spring: Beyond the Tank | Agents of Shield | The Whispers

Wednesdays Spring: Comedy Block | Members Only

Thursdays Winter: The Astronaut Wives Club | The Taste | The Taste

Spot said...

I agree with that strategy. But just as a reminder, they did the exact same thing with Red Widow two years ago (tones of Oscars promotion) and it flopped badly. So it is not a given thing, by any means. Not that I think it actually matters to Forever, since ABC will have a lot of renewable hours anyway.

Spot said...

cancel - confident.

Spot said...

renew - confident

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