Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/7/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC was not quite as fortunate as usual in finals but still got upticks for Selfie (1.2, still down 25% from last week) and Agents of SHIELD (1.7, still a new low). The CW saw The Flash (1.9) get even bigger but Supernatural (1.1) drop below last year's premiere.
  • The CW's highest-stakes night of the season zoomed past "great for CW" numbers and into "potential network game-changer" territory. The Flash (1.8) got the highest raw rating for a CW scripted series since season one of The Vampire Diaries back in 2009-10, and its premiere was almost certainly more impressive than that of TVD (2.1) given the five years that have elapsed since then. It's still very early, but it's hard to see this show not being the CW's biggest series this season, and it may even stack up very high on the historical spectrum. This was a massive, massive win for the network.
  • I had never really bought into the idea that the network might move Supernatural (1.2) within this season to launch something post-Flash, but tonight's ratings would seem to open that door. It was another really good rating for SPN, but only even with last year's premiere and a tenth above the May finale. The CW may see its optimum midseason schedule including Supernatural on another night, as its ratings would probably not completely crater elsewhere. But we're still a long way from knowing just how big a launch-pad The Flash will be.
  • After a not-completely-DOA start last week, ABC's new comedies are officially on death watch. Compared with last week's finals, Selfie (1.1) was down 31% and Manhattan Love Story (0.9) down a massive 40%. These shows both adjusted up two tenths last week, so the drops may not end up that ugly, but they're still going to be bad. Agents of SHIELD (1.6) and Forever (1.3) also hit new lows again, which (as I said last week) could inspire speedier action by the network in the 8:00 hour.
  • CBS and Fox were mostly steady, as a repeat of Family Guy (0.9) provided only a teeny improvement on last week's Utopia. NBC aired a two-hour The Voice clip show (2.4), and Chicago Fire (2.1) held on pretty strong. (It tied last year's rating in this same situation.)

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 1.2 38% -25%-0.4n/a 2/2 n/a -25% -59% 1.3
Manhattan Love Story 0.9 35% -40%-0.6-0.4 2/2 n/a -40% -69% 1.2
Agents of SHIELD 1.7 46% -6%-0.1-0.6 3/3 -41% -8% +3% 1.9
Forever 1.3 31% -7%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -10% +53% 1.6
ABC:-16%-25%
NCIS 2.6 19% +0%+0.0n/a 2/3 -7% -2% -7% 2.7
NCIS: New Orleans 2.3 19% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/3 n/a +0% -10% 2.1
Person of Interest 1.6 21% -11%-0.2+0.0 3/3 -20% -11% -20% 1.6
CBS:-4%-12%
The Voice Tue 2.5 35% -39%-1.6n/a 3/3 -17% -39% -16% 2.5
Chicago Fire 2.1 32% -9%-0.2-1.6 3/3 +0% -9% -2% 2.0
NBC:-33%-12%
Family Guy (R) 0.9 58% +13% -36% 1.1
New Girl 1.4 68% +8%+0.1+0.1 2/4 -33% +8% -33% 1.6
The Mindy Project 1.0 58% -9%-0.1+0.1 3/4 -29% -9% -29% 1.3
Fox:+5%-33%
The Flash 1.9 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +375% +111% 1.9
Supernatural 1.1 56% n/an/an/a 1/1 -8% +175% -8% 0.9
CW:+275%+43%
Big5:-3%-12%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

43 comments:

Spot said...

I am so happy I went with the over in the end right now ahah.

And yep, I have been saying since the upfronts that they should have gone ahead and moved Supernatural to Mondays with The Originals and launched The Messengers or IZombie out of the Flash right away. I understand why they didn't do it, but I think they should have and I think the likelihood of that happening come midseason is higher than ever now.

Now all eyes turn to Arrow tonight. I really hope it gets a boost from the flash related audience.

Spot said...

Flash. Wow. Speechless.

Spot said...

That is a fantastic result for the Flash. It's roughly what I had been predicting for months, and I thought I was optimistic! It ran 5 minutes over, which made me start Shield late. Which I'm sure is exactly what they wanted

Spot said...

Flash on The CW outrating S.H.I.E.L.D. on ABC... I'm just wowed.

Spot said...

My pet idea was Wednesday being Flash at 8 and Arrow at 9. I think it would have retained better than Supernatural. Speaking a Supernatural, it has gotten 3 timeslot upgrades in a row! It was getting a .5 lead in from Nikita and now a 1.8 from the Flash!

Spot said...

I think that's kind of a waste since Arrow can still anchor a night on its own IMO. That would leave Supernatural and The Originals to launch the new shows and I think The Flash is better to do it.

Spot said...

By the way (MINOR SPOILER ALERT FOR ARROW),




The lead from The Flash is appearing on Arrow tonight, so maybe Arrow gets even more heat than I had anticipated. I hope we get an Arrow question tonight!

Spot said...

Well, my scenario was Originals/Reign, Supernatural/100, Flash/Arrow, and Vampire/Newbie. Arrow had a soft season 2 and I think Supernatural shows us that you can strengthen an existing anchor that way

Spot said...

It's situations like these where I don't give a damn about getting the question wrong. The ratings outcome is just that spectacular.

Spot said...

I don't really prefer to use declining TVD to launch a newbie (especially against Scandal) than to use Arrow, The Flash or The 100. You also move practically every show on the schedule that way which would for sure take away a lot of promotional time for The Flash, which was the whole point of the cw this pre-season.

Compared to how it is, in your scenario, I see Supernatural and The 100 doing worse than Flash/Supernatural respectively and Flash/Arrow doing better than Arrow/The 100 respectively. So I think it would be mostly a net loss, with the negative that all the promotion and moves bring.

However, if you do TO/Supernatural and The Flash/The Messengers, I see Supernatural doing better than Jane significantly, TO getting a small boost by having a better companion and The Messengers doing on par with Supernatural or only slightly below given the huge lead-in.

Spot said...

First

Spot said...

Once you get over the shock and awe of anything on The CW getting a 1.8 rating (which will probably even adjust up a tenth, too) and cooler thinking prevails, I can't help but think The Flash's ratings are a proverbial flash in the pan. I'm not trying to diminish the quality or appeal of The Flash. I actually watched it this morning and thought it was respectable for a comic book adapted to television. That being said, it's a little too cartoonish for my taste but its optimistic tone seems a lot more family friendly than fellow DC comic inspired Gotham. Let's face it, network (and film) marketing departments are masterfully using Comic Con and social media to create this frenzied, insane anticipation for these comic book adaptations and comic book inspired show premiers, turning their debuts into "event" programming. These disproportionately high ratings debuts for this genre of programming on all networks is probably the new normal for the foreseeable future but history shows that they are not even remotely sustainable for very long. In the coming weeks, I anticipate The Flash's ratings settling into more typical CW territory of 0.8 to 1.1. It's a lock for renewal but I will predict that it will not even be the top CW show in the key demo by the end of the season.

Spot said...

I didn't think The Flash was as big a brand as Spot was making out. I was apparently very wrong.

Spot said...

I believed it's bigger brand than Arrow is... just not this bigger.
Arrow premiere was 62 in A8-49+.
The Flash 106 ! 112 if it adjust to 1.9 in finals (there was 3 minutes overrun).

Spot said...

I really didn't expect those numbers for The Flash. Big wow, probably the best rated scripted episode in plus ever for The CW (may even for the WB too). Ouch at ABC's comedies.

Spot said...

I never thought I'd see this day in my lifetime lol.

Spot said...

I was shocked to see that The Flash's rating was so high. I feel like it won't stay that high, but still. The CW really needs to consider gearing toward Smallville-type shows.

Spot said...

I really missed the mark with Arrow when it premiered a few years ago. I'm a huge fan of the Marvel/DC characters, but what I know of them is only from movies and some tv shows. I never read the comic books. So, I didn't know about the character, Green Arrow. If I knew that Arrow was based on a DC character, I would have watched the premiere.


The only reason I haven't tuned in to Arrow yet is because I haven't gotten around to watching season 1. However, I really want to get into it, and after its association with The Flash I feel like it should get a significant amount of exposure.

Spot said...

Amazing premiere for The Flash.


Now the biggest question is: can it go over a 2.0?

Spot said...

Hey Spot, do you think the Flash premiere will qualify for your Top 10 Ratings Moments of 2014?

Spot said...

Shield's dropping is disheartening. It's getting so good.
.
After being down -19% and -26% in the first two episodes, NCIS has the gap down to -8%. Good trend

Spot said...

The Flash adjusted up to 1.9, and I definitely think it will be the first renewed show across all 5 networks. Maybe even cable-like instant renewal before second episode airs. I fully expect it to happen before Spot makes First Two Weeks post - until he posts it earlier than usual (which would be 13 days from today).

Ont he other end of spectrum, ABC's Manhattan Love Story was *not* adjusted up from 0.9. While it is ABC Studios show like Trophy Wife was, TW didn't drop bellow 1.1 until late January. Then my money is on "Manhattan" being the first show axed this season. Mulaney not to have that "honor" - I think Fox will want to see what Mulaney does on NFL-fueled Sunday first, and they also might choose to burn it off (Sun 7/7:30 PM, or maybe Friday), instead of straight out cancel it. While "Manhattan" will be pulled any minute, at most one more episode (if they need time to figure out how to revamp Tuesday). Only question is if Selfie goes with MLS, or stays a bit more.

Spot said...

Both NCIS shows flat to last week, but it happened in the week when The Voice went 39% down.
Next week Voice will be regular episode, and likely 20-30% up, so let's wait and see NCIS ratings next week before calling it a trend.

Spot said...

of course there will be a physiological decrease in the next weeks. Still, the pilot was very well received. Flash could stay at high levels (not pilot-high, but high nonetheless) for some time.

Spot said...

Spot, TVD premiere hit a 75 plus. What is The Flash premiere plus as of today and what is the one expected for the season? Will it be above 100?

Spot said...

The league average was 1.88 last year. It's more than certain to drop, even if by some miracle it drops less than the standard 10%. Regardless, even if it does not drop at all, Flash would already be at 100. It will beat it for sure. It's the highest rated CW premiere.

Spot said...

The Flash screams "huge premiere creates unrealistic expectations" all over

Spot said...

Fair point. But it is being compared to the clip show last year.

Spot said...

Is Selfie from ABC studios?

Spot said...

No. Warner Bros.

Spot said...

Spots table says. to last week -39%, y2y -16%.

And, don't get me wrong I'd like NCIS to hold well. Because I like when there's more hits. And it seems to me there's ever less and less hits, and more and more shows with good-but-not-great ratings. With number of flops constant and high.

Spot said...

Huge for The CW, but I'm not surprised that The Flash did so well. Red hot genre, based on a top-tier DC character, great promos and key art, a ton of buzz, positive reviews, smart scheduling and on-brand for the network. A perfect storm.

I'm a little surprised that Warner let The CW use The Flash, since it's a top-tier character that could easily lead its own film franchise. Contrast that with Green Arrow, a second-tier character that is way too similar to Batman for them to give it its own movie. Perhaps they were sold by Arrow coupled with them considering The Flash too light-hearted for their gritty cinematic output.

I thought The CW should move Supernatural before, and nothing here changes my mind. I don't think The CW is strong enough for them not to move it, and it seems ridiculous to use such a big lead-in on a show that is ten seasons old. The only question is whether they are sold on their mid-season shows.

Spot said...

Ho. Ly. Shit.

Never have I been so happy to have blown a Question in such spectacular fashion. The Flash was an awesome pilot, and entirely deserves this rating. This may also be the last time I underestimate the more iconic "Not Big Three" members of the Justice League, unless an Aquaman pilot ever gets picked up to series.



On the other side of the spectrum, ABC needs help in a hurry. The fact that Paul Lee can continue to pick up shows the network is so well known not to do well w/ either creatively or ratings-wise speaks to something in the air at Disney headquarters. (maybe it's their own "gas leak year", only going back all the way to MacPherson) It certainly isn't helping SHIELD, which creatively has reached a point where it occasionally makes me forget I still only like it overall. (I'm sure hoping that it takes the next step soon, so I can justify diverging my own schedule from my roommates' a little more)


I'm a bit surprised that NCIS:NOLA actually stabilized in week three, after the literal snoozer that was week two. (seriously, how do you botch something as high stakes as a bubonic plague storyline so badly that I have to be woken up by the Person of Interest intro?)


The Family Guy repeat is certainly a cheaper 0.9 than Utopia would've been, assuming it could've got there. Fox has got to be hoping Masterchef Junior delivers any sort of ratings life to the night.

Spot said...

I tried to imagine ABC without Shonda. It would be just Modern Family and Shark Tank. And OUAT, if this recent surge isn't short-lived.
Black-ish would be their 3rd strongest scripted show. Actually, Goldbergs, if we filter out Black-ish big lead-in. Castle would be 2nd strongest drama on ABC. Sub 2.0 shows SHIELD and Resurrection would fight for being 3rd drama on totem pole - with outcome not important, because both would be lock for renewals. In turn, Forever and Nashville would be considered likely renewal, despite already this early being at 1.5.

As long as Shonda is making money, Paul Lee seems to be safe. And to waste that money on his obscure projects.

Spot said...

definitely.
I already see the comments about cancellation next week when Flash's rating will decrease...

Spot said...

That certainly looks like the best schedule now. I could also see the other newbie getting the Thursday 9pm slot and Reign being held for summer at this point.

Spot said...

I really think that launching a show Thursdays at 9 is not an ideal situation. TVD is not the powerhouse it used to be and, on top of that ,Scandal is dominating the hour (not to mention the blacklist's presence later on as well). A male skewing show would avoid Scandal but would be a bad fit with TVD. A female skewing show would be compatible with TVD but be destroyed by TGIT.



Obviously it's still a better situation than for instance what Star Crossed got last year but that really isn't saying much.


And in any case I think it will be a mute point because The 100 will finish earlier so I am pretty sure the second newbie will launch post Arrow.

Spot said...

You really should get into Arrow. I have also never read the comics and I am not that much into the movies (I have seen the big stuff like the Batman movies and The Avengers but that's about it). But Arrow doesn't really need any backroung and is an AWESOME show in itself. Season 1 is great at introducing the characters and the relationships. It gets really good towards the end but then Season 2 comes along and it gets mind blowing, super good, really. For sure one of my favorites (and this coming from someone who watches A LOT of shows)

Spot said...

And in weeks 3 & 4, The Flash goes against games 1 & 6 of World Series on Fox. If Arrow is any indication, that should hit it hard. And that certainly would give prophets of doom some material. Then they'll scratch their heads when Flash recovers in Weeks 5 & 6. And, hopefully, shut up for good.

Spot said...

Spot's projection of league average for 2014-15 is 1.70.
The Flash 1.9 premiere = tentative 112 in A8-49+.
Arrow premiere was at 62.

Spot said...

True, but even so, he can't just keep going to the Shonda well every time he needs a bona fide hit, since that will increase the chances of another Off The Map.

Spot said...

You're referring to the news that came out earlier today?

Shonda Rhimes Producing ABC Comedy From Scott Foley & Greg Grunberg
Scandal co-star Scott Foley and Greg Grunberg, Felicity
alums and longtime friends, have teamed for a relationship TV comedy
project. It is backed by Shonda Rhimes' Shondaland, which also is behind Scandal as well as Grey's Anatomy and ABC's new hit drama How To Get Away With Murder.
Foley and Grunberg will write the story together, with Foley set to
write the teleplay. The two executive produce with Shondaland's Rhimes
and Betsy Beers.

Spot said...

Did not know that. Thanks for clueing me in. But yeah, that kinda proves my point, although it does provide an interesting test into whether Shonda knows her comedy and/or comedy partners as well as she's known her dramas/drama partners thus far.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.