Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/12/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Nielsen's ABC inflation is over, but Once Upon a Time (2.7) and Resurrection (1.5) still got some help from finals. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.2) also picked up a tenth, while Madam Secretary (1.4) declined to the same number it got without the NFL two weeks ago.
  • CABLE UPDATE: The Walking Dead had at least one more series high in it, posting a stratospheric 17.3 million viewers and 8.7 A18-49 rating. It wasn't exactly another of those massive TWD explosions; the A18-49 rating was only 6% above the 8.2 that kicked off last season. But when we're talking about comparisons with a series that had already pulled off some of the most impressive ratings in TV history, every step farther up the ladder should not be taken for granted. Amazing.
  • Once Upon a Time (2.6) dropped another 16% from last week's 3.1 preliminary (seemingly the more reliable number for comparison given the Nielsen issues). The Frozen thing remains a big win, as this was still on the year-to-year upside, but the margin is shrinking. ABC then saw Resurrection (1.4) take another large drop at 9/8c, likely at least in part due to the premiere of The Walking Dead in the hour. This was 22% behind even last week's prelim and also trailed the year-ago episode of Revenge in the hour. And Revenge (1.2) inched down again to a preliminary new low (but remains a huge improvement vs. last year's Betrayal).
  • Fox got a big boost from an even more massive late-afternoon NFL lead-in than usual. The Simpsons (3.3) zoomed back up by over 60% week-to-week, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.1) continued to do pretty close to what could be expected of a second-tier animated series. Even lowly Mulaney (1.1) picked up a tenth week-to-week, though its Family Guy lead-in (1.7) was in repeat mode.
  • On CBS, Madam Secretary (1.5) and CSI (1.4) each improved by a tenth on when CBS last lacked the national NFL lead-in two weeks ago.
  • Football and The Walking Dead updates to come!

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.2 28% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +33% +4% 1.6
Once Upon a Time 2.7 43% -18%-0.6+0.3 3/3 +13% -18% +13% 2.8
Resurrection 1.5 34% -25%-0.5-0.6 3/3 n/a -25% -9% 1.4
Revenge 1.2 33% -14%-0.2-0.5 3/3 -25% -11% +50% 1.4
ABC:-13%+10%
60 Minutes 1.3 16% -48%-1.2n/a 3/4 -13% -74% -13% 1.7
Madam Secretary 1.4 16% -13%-0.2-1.2 3/4 n/a -26% -24% 1.6
The Good Wife 1.3 16% -7%-0.1-0.2 3/4 +8% -16% +13% 1.3
CSI 1.4 20% +8%+0.1-0.1 1/3 -26% +12% +8% 1.7
CBS:-45%-7%
Football Night in America p2 1.4 41% -48%-1.3n/a 4/6 -18% -48% -18% 1.8
Football Night in America p3 4.0 44% +3%+0.1-1.3 4/6 -11% +3% -13% 4.2
Sunday Night Football 6.6 46% -11%-0.8+0.1 7/7 -21% -13% -21% 6.1
NBC:-24%-30%
NFL Overrun 11.3 42% +64%+4.4n/a 1/6 +23% +1783% +5% 11.2
The OT 5.5 48% -13%-0.8+2.3 2/3 +8% +293% +8% 3.2
The Simpsons 3.3 57% +65%+1.3+4.1 2/3 n/a +65% +10% 2.4
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 2.2 62% +38%+0.6+1.3 2/3 +47% +38% -12% 1.9
Family Guy (R) 1.7 63% -11% -29% 1.4
Mulaney 1.1 64% +10%+0.1-0.2 1/2 n/a +10% -52% 1.0
Fox:+195%-4%
Big4:+7%-16%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

27 comments:

Spot said...

Resurrection tumbled vs The Walking Dead premiere. Mid 1s wouldn't surprise me late in Season 2, but in 3rd episode is by no means good. I'm sure Live+3 won't be so bad, but that's important only if C3 are also much higher than this poor Live+SD. Unfortunately, unlike PR crap Live+3 ratings, it's very unlikely we'll ever learn about its C3 ratings.

Madam Secretary - I want it to collapse. Simply so I get 2 points in First Two Weeks game. Other than that, I have nothing against it having 6 seasons and a movie. But it was .2 up last week on NFL fueled Sunday, and .1 down this week w/o NFL. And I expected it to be opposite, trend to be something like +0.1 to +0.2 followed by -0.2 to -0.3.

SNF - In preliminaries, 8:30-10 PM portion of the game is down 10% w2w, and 10-11 PM down big 17%. That's what 27-zero score (plus one of the teams being completely clueless) does.

I got a win in unofficial Mulaney game. Yay, now I'm at W-L 1-5 in those. Or it is 2-4? Doesn't matter, and doesn't change the fact Mulaney would be wise to start lining up some stand-up gigs.

Spot said...

OUAT is still doing spectacularly well. This is about where I expected it to premiere, so for it still be here come episode 3 is amazing. And I am not so sure it will be all downwards from here on. The next two hours are a problem though. Revenge is doing a passable job at 10pm, especially compared to what aired there before, but the 9pm hour has collapsed with Resurrection. I think that show is more likely to be cancelled than renewed now. Still, ABC was still preliminary up 1% year to year last night, so they will be up >10% in PLUS, which isn't bad at all.



As for CBS, I am really hoping that Madam Secretary doesn't adjust down. I think this level should be enough for CBS to give it a back nine, because seriously, could have they expected much better? And CBS was only down 8% last night which isn't even that bad as people are making out the loss of TAR to be.


On FOX, I am really happy that B99 is doing okay business there.

Spot said...

I thought you were way optimistic with a 1.2 guess for Mulaney, but wow. Normally, rising with a repeat lead in would be good, but this is like Intelligence where it's so low it doesn't matter

Spot said...

Did you see Once did a 2.5 in 18-34!? That's great!

Spot said...

That's bad for Resurrection. I love this show. It keeps improving, but that's bad. First time I've felt it was weaker than Revenge. Still don't see a point of not letting it run out the string now

Spot said...

FOX desperation just kicked in: Gotham got a full season order. I don't particularly think it's a bad move since the limited series premise clearly wasn't working out with all the long breaks but the media will have a field day with this after all the claims that it was capped at 16 episodes.

Spot said...

I think it's safe to say that Once Upon A Time's now "official" premier week final rating of 3.5 was an "event" type rating, goosed big time by social media froth and comic con induced hysteria, not to mention that insignificant factoid of Frozen being the most successful animated feature around the world. The current rating would seem to me to be a more normal, realistic one moving forward--and it is still amazingly good. Once Upon A Time is a unique kind of series that can reset itself whenever a new fairytale story arc is introduced. It's a hybrid of a returning series and a new series rolled into one. ABC has a potential long term hit player here, especially for families, which also happens to be one big 60 minute commercial for the Disney brand. The 9pm hour is probably always going to be a challenge, especially for the only network without any football ratings or football inflated ratings. The challenge of competing against edgier and the biggest cable competition on Sundays is a huge problem for all the networks, not just ABC. I'm not sure ABC or any network could do much better here than mid to high 1's as a seasonal average.

Spot said...

Fox gave additional 6 episodes to Gotham for 22 episodes order. Normally it would be of little interest, but...

1. They're not insisting on "limited" series anymore. Another of things inherited from Reilly's regime is ditched.

2. This increases chances of Gracepoint and/or Red Band Society being pulled already in November.
Midseason: Idol is two hours (most weeks), Monday is Gotham/The Following, Tuesday 9 PM is comedy block.
That leaves 3 weekday slots for 5 dramas: Bones, Empire, Wayward Pines, Backstrom, Glee.
One drama might go to Friday paired with some Ramsey's show, but I doubt two would go there. I think they will test one (or two) new dramas planned for midseason already in November after World Series. That way they would get rid of one (or both) flops + they would sample if one (or two) backups is more suited for a weekday or for Friday.

Spot said...

Agree, the limited series premise wasn't working well. Not to take anything away from Gotham but historically fantasy genre programming on network television flames out in the first season, often in a significant way I can't imagine a second season premiere (assuming there is one) garnering anything close to the hype going into its premiere this year and the resulting big ratings. I think a full season this year will at least give FOX the opportunity to squeeze as much ratings juice out of Gotham as possible, more so than a limited run this year and next. If the ratings decline this year doesn't stop or level off, Gotham could become FOX' new Glee, just not as bad.

Spot said...

I think it's a move born out of desperation. They badly need the ratings it brings them. But I kind of agree with the principle of them abandoning the limited series concept for now. I think ABC is the one who has mastered it: they basically do two seasons worth of storyline within one, so 1) they avoid filler episodes, 2) they avoid big breaks that are killing limited series and 3) they reach syndication in the normal timeframe.

I also don't dislike your idea about them trying out a midseason drama right after the World Series but do they really have enough time to promote it (unless it's returning Glee)? I think it would be a bit too risky.

Another thing worth mentioning is that the combined order of Sleepy Hollow and The Following is 33 episodes. Even if both of them air two hour finales, that would still leave them at a 7 episode disadvantage compared to Gotham. So maybe the Following doesn't go there this season and they air something with less episodes like Wayward Pines? It would "fit" the episode orders best. I still have no idea what should go to Tuesdays at 8 though. That slot is hellish.

Spot said...

Yes, 7 repeats of Gotham leading into 9 PM show. It sounds better than two repeats on some Mondays, at least to me.
They can also order another batch of "24" episodes, premiere it in April, and run it into summer. Or if Kiefer doesn't like the idea, then do the same (April to June season) with 10 episodes of Wayward Pines.
We'll know more when we see if Fox airs some Gotham repeats, or airs it uninterrupted.

Spot said...

Yup, I figured it would settle in the mid-high 2s and that appears to be happening. That's a great result.

TWD and SNF are *both* bigger in Plus than even peak-era Idol, and they're doing so *at once*. It's amazing anyone else even bothers competing, let alone that FOX actually can (and with similarly skewing Family Guy, to boot!) - ABC are in a less bad position because they can go completely the other way demographically, but they might just want to do so with cheap unscripted fodder. Possibly of the two-hour variety, it'd provide some momentum into the 10pm hour for the affiliates to appreciate.

Spot said...

Yes you are probably right. It's a real shame that The Following has gotten so weak. If it wasn't so weak, I would say move it to Thursday to patch things up with Bones and let Gotham and whatever leads out of it handle Mondays. But with how weak it got I am not really sure there is much upside and I definitely don't like it going up against the blacklist.

Spot said...

Yeah, not good for this anti-Walking Dead version of The Walking Dead. Last year I recall some of the passionate comments from some fans of the show vowing to stop watching it if it ever veered into Walking Dead scary and gory territory. You know what seemed particularly weird was its omission from the 7 day DVR ratings list released yesterday. Maybe my memory is fuzzy but I could have sworn Resurrection always garnered huge DVR demo ratings last year in its shortened run, placing it always in the top 15, if not the top 10 shows when 7 day DVR ratings were added to its live + same day. While the DVR ratings are meaningless, I always think a strong consistent showing indicates strong continued interest and loyalty to a show. I suspect ABC will continue to air all of Resurrection's episodes in the same time slot if the ratings stay at least close to where they are and until American Crime premieres mid season. If, and it's an awfully big "if", Resurrection can show some improvement in the weeks ahead, I imagine it might return as a limited order bench warmer for a 10pm slot next year.

Spot said...

TV By the Numbers states that The Walking Dead got an 8.7 demo, 11 million adult viewers, and 17 million viewers in total. It's still up from last year, but I lost the poll again... Lol.

Spot said...

I missed the question but I don't even care. The Walking Dead is AMAZING and I am so happy with its rating. It continues to laugh in the face of pretty much every other show.

Spot said...

It got like a 510 in Plus. It's behind only the Friends finale. Seriously huge ratings. It's like Two and a Half Men season 9 premiering to a 12.1

Spot said...

American Idol's top ratings ever would roughly be an 8.0 today, so this is huge. I mean an 8.7 would be a megahit in Plus for every year of the era! I think you'd have to do back to something like "The Single Guy" to see something that big ever remotely cancell worthy.

Spot said...

The fact that it is on basic cable should value it even more IMO. It's like if American Idol had happened to be on the cw

Spot said...

Very impressive for The Walking Dead. Even if I would've liked it a bit more impressive so I could've won The Question.



The Fox numbers have made me appreciate more than ever how volatile they can be during NFL season. Perhaps because I'm paying attention now due to Brooklyn Nine Nine's presence in the slot.


Anyone have any idea if my "months wandering a frozen wasteland" prediction for the Frozen storyline on Once is in fact playing out yet? Cause it would seem that a bit of the shine came off this week, even accounting for the Nielsen glitch. The rest of the ABC line-up is looking like one big tasty Sunday show sandwich for the bear at this point.


Speaking of Sunday cancel sandwiches, those CBS Sunday numbers are looking pretty iffy themselves.


Football thoughts later.

Spot said...

Walking Dead saw a 3.0 for the repeat of last season's finale at 8. Wow, just wow. I know there must be a pretune factor, but the episode was already available on Netflix and saw an 8.0 in the original telecast, so that's just crazy. I mean Talking Dead *only* did a 3.5 with a 8.7 lead in. Seriously, them not putting something scripted after Dead with the dreadful ratings of renewed Turn and HACF is just crazy. They need to put something scripted there. End of story!

Spot said...

I am pretty sure the spinoff is going there once it's ready.

Spot said...

Madam was just adjusted up. That show is definitely over performing expectations (personally speaking, I am surprisingly really liking it so far, though I didn't think I would be much into it). I would be shocked if CBS gave a full season to Stalker over this now. I think it would be worthy of a full season.

Spot said...

Which I think is crazy. The show seems just like the thing that can self start. Seriously, when you have a 500 Plus show you can't just have it go to Chris Harwick's Talk Show.

Spot said...

Ironically, this is the year Fox would actually like baseball more preempting its primetime shows. I mean, 4 of 5 new shows (and 4.5 of 5.5 rookie shows hours) bombed.

Spot said...

Never underestimate strength of Cowboys. Well, in TV ratings at least.

From press release:
On Sunday (10/12), AMERICA'S GAME OF THE WEEK on FOX, led by the Dallas Cowboys’ 30-23 victory over the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, posted a season-high 17.4/32 household rating/share with 30.0 million viewers, according to Nielsen, and is the highest-rated and most-watched program on all broadcast and cable television since the Academy Awards in March. More significantly, it’s the NFL on FOX’s highest-rated regular season broadcast in nearly three years (17.6/30, 12/4/11) and is the most-watched NFL on FOX regular season Sunday broadcast in 19 years.

Spot said...

Walking Dead:

A18-49: 8.7 vs 8.2 last year: +6%
M18-49: 9.3 vs. 9.2: +1%
W18-49: 8.0 vs. 7.2: +11%

A18-34: 8.9 vs. 9.2: -3%
M18-34: 9.4 vs. 10.1: -7%
W18-34: 8.4 vs. 8.4: n.c

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