Monday, October 13, 2014

The Question, Monday 10/13/14: Will Jane the Virgin's Ratings Be Plain?


The CW's second and final new fall drama rolls out tonight as Jane the Virgin hits the airwaves after The Originals. Though it has garnered quite a few positive reviews, the pros pretty much stop there. Despite the reviews, the premise is pretty ridiculous. It feels like a holdover from the network's long-gone days of laser focusing on the W18-34 audience. It will have a passable-sized but seemingly incompatible lead-in from The Originals. And The Voice, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow and Dancing with the Stars are a pretty tough group of competitors for live viewing. This feels like an uphill battle. Will Jane the Virgin's ratings be plain? That's The Question for Monday, October 13, 2014.

Comparable CW Series Premieres
0.5 (Emily Owens M.D., 10/16/12) (0.6 Hart of Dixie lead-in)
0.6 (The Carrie Diaries, 1/14/13)
0.3 (Cult, 2/19/13) (0.3 Hart of Dixie lead-in)
0.8 (Reign, 10/17/13) (1.3 The Vampire Diaries lead-in)
0.4 (Star-Crossed, 2/17/14)

The CW actually put most of its newbies in pretty good situations last season, so it's worth returning to 2012-13 to see just how low this network can go with lower-tier premieres. The best comparison for Jane is probably Emily Owens M.D., which launched out of Hart two autumns ago. And yet, I think Jane is in an even worse position, especially if The Originals drops from last week's 0.7. Emily at least seemed compatible with the lead-in, and its premiere only had to compete with a big four-simulcast debate.

So my pick is 0.4. I don't really feel comfortable going all the way up to 0.45, so I'm taking this out to the hundredths as a one-time deal. If it actually hits 0.4 exactly, we'll be at the mercy of the second number after the decimal.

Over/Under: 0.415.

TO CLARIFY: "Over" wins at 0.42 or higher. "Under" wins at 0.41 or lower.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

42 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

I think it will get 0.4 or 0.5 in A18-49, with slightly better W18-34. But I have no clue where in 0.36 to 0.54 range this would land, so my over is pure guess.

As for "0.4 or 0.5" part:
Going against the strongest of The Voice 3 hours surely isn't perfect, but there was no good choice - with Tue/Wed being CW "male nights" it was either this, either Thursday 9 PM vs Scandal. However, after some positive recent buzz, DOAish 0.3 now seems too low for premiere. But if Devious Maids couldn't premiere with better than 0.75 on Lifetime, I cannot see Jane doing better than 0.5.

Spot said...

Toughing it up Spot! I wanted to guess a 0.4 but I can see it doing something between a 0.4 and a 0.45.

Going with my gut here and saying UNDER

Spot said...

Over at .53

Spot said...

No abount of critical praise can stop the flopening thats about to take place. Under

Spot said...

This show's pickup is all internal politics, but I think it will have nothing to do with lead in. I Cristela just had a hispanic cast with an incompatible lead in and grew a bit. It won't grow, but I think it'll be enough for a .5 I believe. Over

Spot said...

As Spot said in Emily Owen's best case/worse case: "Hart of Dixie: The Squeakquel!". No one going to be saying that for The Originals.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I'm useless with CW predictions. Over.

Spot said...

0.4 seems a good call; going to the extra decimal point for this Question is an even better one.

If I'm thinking 0.4 is the probable number, and I don't know where in that range it'll be, I guess I'm taking the Under on this line. Not convinced, because a 0.5 seems slightly more plausible than a 0.3, but... Yeah, Under.

Spot said...

Admittedly, I suck at guessing CW premiere numbers, but I was expecting a line of 0.55. And depending on how generous I felt that day, I may have even gone over on that line! I should probably go against my gut, but 0.415 is just too low. Over.

Spot said...

Under. Word on the street is the show is excellent and one of the best pilots of the season, but I don't think that makes much difference in particular with CW shows and the lead-in makes no sense. Plus, it's one of those shows that can be good, but a lot of people aren't going to care and be able to look past the name and the premise. Since I expect The Originals to drop to a 0.6, I can't imagine JtV keeping over 2/3 of it's lead in.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. The Originals will fall to 0.6, and it seems very like to me that Jane will lose roughly 50% of that audience.

Spot said...

I think Jane the Virgin will surprise. Unlike most CW offerings, I've seen a lot of ads on other networks. Whether or not that bumps the show up a bit obviously remains to be seen, but I think it will help somewhat.

I'm going with an 0.7 - OVER.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I was thinking either 0.3 or 0.4. I'd love for it to surprise but UNDER

Spot said...

Over. Surely it must?

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.


Surprise smash hit!

Spot said...

This feels like a very iffy premise in this day and age of The CW, especially after the failure of the sci-fi tinged love story Star-Crossed last winter/spring in this very slot. Under.

Spot said...

I was going not confident, but the thing is, not only is the show doing marginal, and is way behind in episodes for the other 10PM shows, but even the negative buzz surrounding it makes me change things around. Now I don't usually use reviews as a reason for cancelation. If reviews mattered, then Criminal Minds would have ended years ago, but CBS has been getting so many complaints about its misogyny and negative portrayals of women, surely they want to dodge a bullet.


So, Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

I'm being completely judgemental because I'm not planning on watching this, and I think the premise of this show is completely dumb.


However, critics are apparently praising it, so people may watch. It has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating (based on about 20 critics). Assuming that The Originals is a .6 or higher, I'll say over.

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

This is a very tough line, but under.

Spot said...

I actually think the best comparison is against Cult: mismatched new show (Cult, Jane the Virgin) launched out of the network's fourth-strongest anchor (Hart of Dixie, The Originals) on a night The CW had decided to surrender (Tuesday, Monday). The biggest difference is that the broadcasters were piss-poor on the Tuesdays whereas Mondays are on average a land of "hits".

Jane needs to overachieve just to remain on the schedule especially if moving Supernatural to Mondays becomes part of the discussion so iZombie or The Messengers can have The Flash's lead-out slot.

Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. If the Latino audience checked out Cristela's premiere, they'll certainly check out this one.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

I think it will be renewed if it's from CBS Studios. Since I'm too lazy to check this and only guess it's from WB, I will go with CANCEL (NOT CONFIDENT)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

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