Monday, October 27, 2014

First Two Weeks, Jane the Virgin


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 0.58
Lead-in: The Originals (0.66)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (2.0 overall, 2.0/2.1 in 9:00 hour), Scorpion (2.4), The Voice (4.0 overall, 4.1/4.4 in 9:00 hour), Sleepy Hollow (1.7).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 0.49 (-16%)
Lead-in: The Originals (0.65)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (2.0 overall), Scorpion (2.4), The Voice (3.4 overall), Sleepy Hollow (1.8).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Tuesday, October 28 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

32 comments:

Spot said...

I have no doubt that this is ultimately going to involve some weird CBS/WB internal politicking, but for now, I'll just go with cancel (not confident).

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident), and copy paste what Billie_Dawn just said.

Spot said...

Renew (not confident). Tough one but if they could put up with BATB, I don't see this doing any worse...and it has critical backing.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident).


Please, CBS, save this over Reign or BATB.

Spot said...

Hart of Dixie is the best comparsion, a bubble show from the start, which premiered to a 0.8, never got higher than 0.9 but it had some help from a terrible network that needed to renew other toss-ups like Nikita and Gossip Girl for a final season.


I doubt CW is going to do it, in 2011, they were all about TVD, Supernatural (which aired on fridays because Ostroff wanted only W18-34 shows) and maybe 90210.


Now there are Flash, Supernatural, Arrow, even fading TVD and an average performer on The Originals are better than what CW had over the last years.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident) CDub is going to fill the sked with superhero & fantasy shows.

Spot said...

Strongest show on the CBS side of the CDub divide. They've taken gargantuan reach renewals for CBS shows lately. I've gotta roll the dice on this one.

Renew (Confident).

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Not confident confident, just fishing for 2 points here. I'm pretty sure it would be renewed if it finishes as 6th strongest drama on CW = if it outrates all of The 100 / iZombie / The Messengers / Reign. With current ratings Jane might just do it, but all points to it dropping some more in next weeks, and especially during the spring. If all of those 5 lower rated CW shows would finish on low average (which I think is rather likely), then recent history shows The CW would likely renew those with most episodes under belt. Very probable because their Netflix deal favors such a decision (but details are not publicly known so we cannot be sure).

Only sure thing here is final decision will have to do nothing with CBS/WB internal politicking, that is laughable notion. It's simple, each fall The CW needs 8+ dramas... but recently they never had 5+ profitable veteran dramas, and their resources are allowing them max 3 newbies in fall. Then each season they had to renew at least one show that is in red, so they just renew those that are least losing money to them.

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)
I would go with a cancel if it was a WB show, but it isn't.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident). The CW will have Flash, Supernatural, Arrow, Vampire Diaries, and The Originals doing better, but I'm not confident because Beauty and the freakin' .3 Beast got renewed for being CBS

Spot said...

renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Another show where the intangibles almost feel like they are just as important as the ratings (the other being Cristela). A quick full-season order, being produced by CBS Studios, a probably better seller in international markets, and the value of scheduling diversity to stop The CW going all-genre are obvious pluses. But while it's improving the timeslot year-to-year that's only because it's being compared to Beauty and the Beast. The Originals/Jane the Virgin is reminiscent of last year's Hart of Dixie/BatB for being so comically mismatched; it just does better volume which is all that really matters anyway...

This would be so much easier if we knew where Supernatural and iZombie were going to land on the schedule (I'm sticking with my assumption that The Messengers is replacing The 100 at midseason). If Supernatural moves to Mondays and bumps Jane the Virgin to Fridays, it means there's more confidence in iZombie since it's going post-Flash. If iZombie bumps Jane instead, it means there's less faith in iZombie but don't want to doom it with a Friday slot and incompatible Hart of Dixie.

Renew (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Question: considering The Flash, TVD, Supernatural, TO and Arrow as their profitable dramas, a 8-drama schedule for next season and two fall newbies, leaving one hour for a "red" drama, which one among those 4 shows mentioned would be CW's pick?(also considering that the newbies mentioned will get bubble-esque ratings like The 100/Reign 1st seasons).


It seems like the only way where I see a renewal for Reign, its episode count (44 vs 29) gives an edge over The 100.


Didn't ask about Jane because your "cancel (confident)" was enough and both HOD and BATB seem done after this season in my opinion.

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

My opinion: Jane needs to have ratings better than Reign exactly as the difference is in what Netflix is paying for show with 22 episodes more.
Considering Netflix is very secretive about everything, I cannot give not even educated guess. Shot in the dark? Around $200K. And in ratings it would translate to around 0.15. So I think:
Jane 0.5 W18-34 & Reign 0.4 W18.34 --> Reign renewed.
Jane 0.5 W18-34 & Reign 0.3 W18.34 --> Jane renewed.
Jane 0.4 W18-34 & Reign 0.3 W18.34 --> Reign renewed.

Of course, if it is between two of those - both could be cancelled, and The 100 or iZombie renewed instead,

Only thing I'm sure is: If Reign and Jane would have equal W18-34 ratings, and it's between two of them (not both canceled or both renewed), it's 100% Reign would be renewed. Same with The 100, except it's target demo is A18-49 (or maybe M18-34? ).

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

renew confident

Spot said...

Renew not confident

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)


Because I love it. I don't care if that's a bad reason.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

If they could renew the Carries Diaries, this should be easy

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

I'm not too sure, and I don't find CW stuff very interesting so I don't have a huge opinion on it, but I'll guess that maybe some CBS magic will save it. Who knows?

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Not really confident, and I actually think it will be cancelled, but I'm going with my heart on this one. I just love the show. Wishful thinking.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel

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