Wednesday, October 8, 2014

First Two Weeks, Black-ish


WEEK ONE
Rating: 3.3
Lead-in: Modern Family (3.9)
Competition: Big Brother (2.6 overall, 2.6 at 9:30), Law and Order: SVU (2.2 overall, 2.2 at 9:30), Red Band Society (1.1 overall, 1.0 at 9:30), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.4 overall, 0.4 at 9:30).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 2.6 (-21%)
Lead-in: Modern Family (3.7)
Competition: Criminal Minds (2.7 overall), Law and Order: SVU (1.8 overall), Red Band Society (1.1 overall), Arrow (R) (0.2 overall).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Thursday, October 9 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

35 comments:

Spot said...

Most obvious DEFER of all.

Spot said...

Yeah, I'm going to have to defer too. I think ABC really likes this show and wants it to succeed, but that's a pretty noticeable second-week decline.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

There's no way in hell Black-ish wouldn't finish in top 4 ABC comedies
+ there's no way in hell ABC would renew less than 4 comedies
= most obvious renew

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

This show will drop to be the lowest rated Wednesday comedy. As I imagine ABC will cut one hour of comedy programming, only three singlecams will be renewed, with the 9:30 spot still being the best launchpad.

Spot said...

Even if ABC drops a comedy hour, there are plenty of sitcoms lower on the totem pole to be canceled (Selfie, Manhattan Love Story, Last Man Standing). With Galavant being thrown into the Sunday breach, that leaves Cristela and Fresh Off the Boat. The former's on Fridays and the latter could replace the former if it's a disappointment. It may end up being a face-saving renewal, especially if ABC wants to continue touting diversity in its lineup, but that's irrelevant for these purposes.

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Competion isn't going to significantly change and it is still getting decent reviews. So no need to say defer. I say renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

renew (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Given the points system, there is almost no benefit to deferring. I would say that I am about 70% confident that it will be renewed, which actually makes the best call RENEW (CONFIDENT).

Spot said...

I'd expect Spot's call here last year would be defer. I'm going to take a shot because I'm not sure how much clarity tonight's number will provide, but I'm not feeling enough conviction to go for the two-point conversion here.

Erring on the side of optimism mostly because the risk of the show falling headlong into a racist trap seems to have been avoided (if it hadn't, I'd have heard as much from the black feminists I follow on Twitter). Creative execution could be a big deal for this show going forward, which makes me scared to back it with any risk, but right now I have reason to believe in it.

Renew (not confident).

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)


Frankly, even with the drop, what other comedy does ABC have that will do better? Tuesdays are DOA, Last Man Standing is possibly on its last year, is doing poorly in that it will give Cristela a rough lead-in, Galavant is on Sunday by its lonesome outside of Ressurection, and Fresh Off the Boat could go anywhere, but seeing how it was only picked up to get Last Man Standing doesn't give a bright future. And ABC has for the past few years renewed at least one new comedy, no matter how marginal (2010-11 Happy Endings, 2011-12 Suburgatory, Apt. 23 2012-13 Neighbors, 2013-14 Goldbergs)

Spot said...

Renew confident

Spot said...

renew confident

Spot said...

Renew (not confident). Pretty sure it gets renewed, but that week 2 drop tho.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

renew confident

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

ABC will renew at least one newbie, and with Selfie and MHS practically dead already, and Cristela and Fresh Off The Boat inspiring little confidence, I think Black-ish will be it.

Spot said...

Wait, I want to change my vote. Cancel that "defer" and go with "renew (confident)"

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

I could see it getting off the Super Fun Night track tonight. I could see it staying on said track, too, although I think the chances of that are lower since the shows are better matches (allegedly). Hence the above.

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

Spot said...

I feel stupid having gone with the defer but well, I was playing it safe. Renew and I would say confident now but I don't think it's allowed.

Spot said...

Renew confident

Spot said...

Renew

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