Thursday, October 23, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/22/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The first three ABC comedies and Criminal Minds gained a tenth while Black-ish lost one. As in the prelims, nothing on broadcast moved by more than a tenth week-to-week. The World Series exactly matched Game 1's 3.4 and was just two tenths behind Game 2 a year ago.
  • Sophomore CW drama The 100 (0.5) pretty much pulled a Reign in its return, coming back at a tie for its season one low. This one is arguably even more disappointing than Reign since it finished season one on such a good note (posting a couple 0.6's after the end of the regular season with a repeat Arrow lead-in). Maybe the World Series is to blame, but it didn't seem to have any effect on Arrow (which actually ticked up to 0.9).
  • Meanwhile, everything on the big four was extremely close to even week-to-week, despite added competition from The World Series (which itself appears to be nearly even with the Game 1 number). That included The Middle (2.0) and The Goldbergs (2.2), back from a week off for holiday pre-emptions. Stalker (1.7) again refused to budge from the number it's gotten since week two.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.1 37% +5%+0.1n/a 1/4 -5% +17% -5% 2.2
The Goldbergs 2.3 41% +5%+0.1+0.1 2/4 +35% +5% +35% 2.3
Modern Family 3.4 42% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/5 -13% -3% -13% 3.1
Black-ish 2.4 38% -4%-0.1+0.0 5/5 n/a -4% +14% 2.1
Nashville 1.4 33% +8%+0.1-0.1 2/5 -13% +12% -10% 1.4
ABC:+4%+0%
Survivor 2.2 30% -4%-0.1n/a 5/5 -8% -6% -8% 2.3
Criminal Minds 2.5 32% +4%+0.1-0.1 2/4 -7% +4% -7% 2.4
Stalker 1.7 29% +0%+0.0+0.1 2/4 n/a +3% -19% 1.6
CBS:+0%-11%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.3 20% -7%-0.1n/a 5/6 n/a -7% -4% 1.5
Law and Order: SVU 1.6 28% -6%-0.1-0.1 5/5 +14% -6% +14% 1.8
Chicago PD 1.5 28% -6%-0.1-0.1 3/5 n/a -6% +88% 1.5
NBC:-6%+24%
World Series 3.4 33% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 -6% +209% -21% 3.6
Fox:+209%-21%
Arrow 0.9 45% +13%+0.1n/a 2/3 +0% +6% +0% 0.9
The 100 0.5 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 -44% +0% -23% 0.5
CW:+4%-10%
Big5:+31%-9%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

30 comments:

Spot said...

Are those this week's ratings, or just copy/paste of previous ratings?
Everything stable, only The 100 seems little lowish. Except for Supernatural, 9PM CW shows are not doing good this season. There will be some pity renewal(s) again.

Yesterday CBS trimmed CSI order to 18 episodes. I'd say it means they'll announce back 9 orders any hour now. Their plan seems pretty much clear to me now:
1. Shorter CSI season means CSI: Cyber is definitely airing on Sunday.
2. That leaves Wednesday 10 PM for Battle Creek in midseason. Stalker ratings were 0.7+ behind Scorpion each of 4 weeks so far, and there should be no doubt which one gets 9 more episodes. However, Stalker is still above Intelligence/Hostages level, so it's likely CBS will air all 13 episodes.
3. It only remains to see if Madam Secretary gets back 9. There's no room in midseason schedule for all of Madam / Mentalist / Undercover Boss. It means either Madam will be cancelled already after 13 episodes, either UB premieres late and runs into summer. Could go either way, at least it seems so to me. We'll see.
4. This doesn't mean CSI is cancelled. But if it survives, this definitely suggests next season would be the final one.

Spot said...

The Stalker/cancellation bear jokes nearly write themselves. Suffice to say that it feels likely to be a long and close chase at this point. Meanwhile, The 100 is also looking like the probability in percent that a newbie gets this slot by spring.

Chargers-Broncos unofficial Question incoming once I'm back home...

Spot said...

The Unofficial Question, 10/23/14: Will Peyton Spark A Thursday Ratings Charge?

The CBS slate of Thursday Night Football games ends with the Chargers visiting the Broncos, and it's not gone entirely well for them. Last week's Jets-Patriots game was the only one to be at all competitive throughout (though the Colts-Texans game the previous week saw a big comeback that put the result in doubt until after the two-minute warning). And while the schedule reshuffle required for the early fall has given Scorpion a nice Big Bang launchpad, the rest of the comedy cupboard is so bare that they hid the entirety of it away until this week in favour of Big Bang reruns - which were, indeed, stronger than The Millers in the 8:30 slot!

This week, though, brings arguably network TV's biggest ratings weapon - Peyton Manning. The Broncos played four times on NBC in the last regular season; all pulled at least a 9.8 in the demo, over 20% higher than the average for NBC regular season games that year. Not even the Cowboys were that big a draw! (They had three appearances - all divisional home games! - averaging a 9.23.) The Manning factor helped drag the Super Bowl to record ratings even in a blowout of early-season TNF proportions. And he'll have to keep up with another elite quarterback in Philip Rivers tonight. With this being the last CBS Thursday game this year - though I believe CBS has a Saturday double-header just before Christmas, between the regular and bowl seasons in college - this might be a surprisingly important data point, as the NFL has a second-year option on the CBS deal that it doesn't have to exercise. Will Peyton spark a Thursday ratings charge? That's the unofficial Question for Thursday, October 23, 2014.

Primetime NFL Games With And Without Peyton Manning

10.00 / 7.38 (Sunday Night Football season average with/without Peyton Manning, 2013 - includes kickoff night and Thanksgiving games on NBC)
8.60 / 8.22 (SNF average with/without Peyton Manning, 2014 - includes kickoff night game on NBC)
5.78 (Thursday Night Football season-to-date average, 2014)

Whilst the TNF average is slightly deflated by the blowouts, that's offset by the Ray Rice story drawing a surprising number of extra eyeballs to the opening Ravens/Steelers broadcast, so I'm calling that a wash. Clearing the 7.5 from that game would represent a 31% increase on the season-to-date average, but I wouldn't be terribly shocked if it did that; that's not much different from what Peyton games averaged last season, and that's relative to a SNF slate which also had those three Cowboys games. On the other hand, the Peyton heat hasn't been nearly as big this year, the sideshow of Brett Favre's former all-time TD record ended in the 49ers blowout on Sunday, the Chargers' home loss to the Chiefs has taken away a fair bit of the heat on that side of the matchup for the casual viewer, and if a Jets-Patriots game that remained within one score throughout could only hang a 5.4, how much heat can this one get?

Over/Under: 6.65
Note: This covers the simulcast between both CBS and NFL Network. This Question closes at the special time of 8pm ET. Not that it counts for points, but...

Spot said...

Good for Jane the Queen of CW.

Spot said...

This is just further proof that the Networks need to get out of the limited series game. The shows have a very short shelf life, they never return well for season 2, and probably most importantly don't get to the final goal of syndication. They seem to actually be regressing on this. Sure, LOST had "limited" seasons for the final three, but it also had 72 episodes in the bag before converting to that. 24 also did a Following like scheduling of airing all its episodes in order in the spring, but it also was adding 24 episodes each season. The CW is basically a syndication factory than needs to repeat shows to cut costs, so limited series are not good for them

Spot said...

The premature back 9 isn't looking quite as premature for it now. And it gives the impression of momentum, which might be self-fulfilling...

Spot said...

Oh goodness, I just saw The 100 only had a .4 in 18-34. That's 44% retention out of Arrow. Just ouch.
.
Good news for CBS holding up. Criminal Minds almost always gets hit hard by baseball (Same for Arrow) and avoided it this time.

Spot said...

Should CW pick The 100 or Reign for their classic pity renewal?

*Silencely hopes they pick Jane The Virgin.*

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I also think it's possible that they simply replace TAR with Boss and air The Mentalist in the summer in its regular slot. It would be Big Brother + TAR + The Mentalist for Sundays in the summer. That would allow Madam to remain in its slot the whole season and CBS to go 3/4 for full season orders, though it would probably go 2/4 at year's end anyway.

I am still not sure what they expect out of Cyber leading out of Good Wife Sundays at 10pm midseason. Why even bother picking it up instead of letting CSI have a normal season? Seems odd to me.

As for Stalker ,I am sure it will air all episodes, I would be shocked otherwise, it is doing perfectly enough for that .

Spot said...

I am officially depressed about the 100's rating. I don't remember the last time I was so furious with a TV rating. I absolutely adore this show. Damn it.

Spot said...

I can't believe they are going through with that plan for CSI: Cyber. If they want to replace an aging expensive veteran with a cheaper spinoff (Law & Order for Law & Order: LA), they need to not give it a death slot. Wasting Criminal Minds lead in on Battle Creek is crazy. Vince Gillian fans probably think CM is trash, so it won't be a useful lead in. Battle Creek also won't ever be syndicated. They should be using Criminal Minds to help squeeze the last bit of juice out of the CSI francise while they still can

Spot said...

Under. Thursday Night Football isn't capturing the interest of the general public.

Spot said...

CSI is probably really expensive. It's a 15 year show with 2 original leads (plus Ted Danson). Most other shows that made 15 seasons had a complete overturn of the cast (Law & Order, ER) by then. Perhaps CBS is actually losing money with those 1.4's and is trying to cut its losses. The Good Wife and especially Madam Secretary are pulling the same ratings for less.

Spot said...

I agree, it is insane. I don't get what they are expecting out of this.

I think Battle Creek looks perfect for the type of network that CBS is turning out to be in the summer. And I am still not 100% sure that they won't try and launch it there. It's not inconceivable that they go 4/4 on full seasons and air mentalist and battle creek in the summer, replacing tar and csi with boss and cyber respectively. I think the most likely scenario is them going 3/4 though.

Spot said...

Sunday 10 PM is not as bad slot after football overruns are over, and CSI: Cyber surly won't have to deal with it. If Cyber does well, CBS can always move it to a weekday in next season, there's no law forbidding it.

Spot said...

First, they pretty much defined summer Sunday schedule with renewals/cancellations few weeks ago. I'm almost sure it will be:
Big Brother / The Amazing Race / Zoo

Second, it seems every your fantasy schedule is fixated on Madam Secretary getting 22 episodes. In the next one I expect you to move NCIS to Friday, and dump Criminal Minds to Saturday just to somehow find timeslot for Madam. In reality, Madam isn't a flop, but is only one tier above that designation. Which means CBS certainly won't build their scheduling around that show. It's quite contrary actually.

Spot said...

Over

Peyton.

Spot said...

Over.


I have only 2 words for you: "Peyton". That's only one. I miscounted first time.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I am not saying that CBS will build the schedule around Madam at all, but leaving things as they are is not building schedule around IMO.From a purely ratings standpoint:
- if they air Madam in season + Mentalist in summer: that's like, say 1.3 for Madam and 1.3 for Mentalist =2.6 (being kind of pessimistic maybe, but ok)
- if they are Mentalist in season + repeats of something else in summer, that's like 1.3 for Mentalist + 0.8 for repeats of something else = 2.1

So they would gain from the later.

However, this was not the point I was trying to make. My broad point is that everyone writes off Madam when I don't think it's such a clear case at all. Why would CBS be in such a hurry to cancel it just to bring back the mentalist to air in the regular season when they can just as easily air it somewhere on summer (even fridays if need be)? Don't misunderstand me: Madam can very well be cancelled right now at 13. It wouldn't surprise me. It's just that everyone is acting like it's a Forever walking when I really don't think is the case.

Spot said...

For Madam Secretary I agree. For pushing big budget midseason drama(s) to summer, I strongly disagree. Undercover Boss, maybe.

For Madam Secretary I said, quote: "could go either way". It means:

50% chances - Madam gets back 9, Mentalist on Friday 8 PM in January, followed by Undercover Boss in April.

50% chances - Madam cancelled after 13, Mentalist on Sunday 8 PM in February, Undercover Boss on Friday 8 PM in January


0% chances - any drama pushed to summer

Spot said...

A18-34ers prefer superheroes to baseball, and A35-49ers not.

The CW press release says Arrow went up .2 in M18-34 (to 1.1, last dozen or so episodes high), A18-34 (to 0.9 from 0.7), and W18-34 (to 0.7 from 0.5). As it went up just 0.1 in A18-49, it surely lost some A35-49 viewers.
Similar happened yesterday with Flash. It was said it's flat in M18-34 (1.5, 20% better than S.H.I.E.L.D. 1.2), and flat (or 0.1 down ? ) in A18-34 (1.3). But it was 0.2 down in A18-49, so it lost some A35-49 viewers too.

Spot said...

Meanwhile, NBC is quietly having strong Wednesdays. They were up in PLUS in all hours and practically up in raw numbers at all hours too (-4%, +13%, +88% respectively) compared to what they did a year ago. This is the first time I feel like Laura might be doing enough to stick around for the whole season (with might being the key word), as now it is legitimately improving on Revolution's PLUS numbers from a year ago, though it is still clearly at the bottom of NBC's drama tentpole.

Spot said...

In completely unrelated news and a very bizarre twist:

http://www.spoilertv.com/2014/10/once-upon-time-episode-408-smash-mirror_23.html

ABC has decided to order 23 episodes of OUAT and burn the extra episode on the 7pm hour. What the hell?! Strangest decision I've seen in a while.

Spot said...

The thing people are forgetting is that last year they ordered a back for TTP and essentially burned off those back 9 on what was a dead night for them on Mondays. The show was practically doomed ever since the move was announced. So they can still throw it on Fridays if it fits their schedule better/ if it disappoints.

Spot said...

Like "darkness" said, ABC is afraid of The Walking Dead. At first, I thought ABC had some sporting event leading into it.

Spot said...

It will be one 2-hours episode, although in stripped syndication it should be two 1-hours episode. That happens when authors have strong episode story they feel it would be a waste if they forcefully condense it into 1 episode. Usually authors make 2-parter in such case. But problem here probably is: very strict structure of those split seasons. First half-season ends week before Christmas with some cliffhanger, second half-season starts week after The Oscars with resolving that cliffhanger. I mean, unlike in procedurals, they cannot just push last episode from first half of the season to the second half.

Spot said...

They preempted America's Funniest Home Videos premiere to show an encore of OUAT's premiere, followed by preempting it to show Star Wars Rebels on ABC, and now preempting it for Once Upon a Time.

Spot said...

Reign may get the nod because it is CBS made and will be half way to syndi land at the end of the season.

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