Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Sunday 9/28/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC's great night got much greater after finals as Once Upon a Time (3.7) and Resurrection (2.5) each picked up three tenths. For all my horrible Question lines last week, Resurrection's big bounce-back is the one that most surprises me. A big part of it was my underestimating the lead-in (which I figured would do 2.7 or 2.8), but it's still a pretty good show of strength even after accounting for that. Revenge (1.5) also inched upward.
  • For a night without a series premiere, the opening Sunday sure was full of surprises. The biggest by a wide margin was Fox's enormous one-hour crossover between The Simpsons and Family Guy (4.5), which would be Family Guy's biggest rating since January... of 2011. It was 73% above last season's premiere. There was also a great deal of heat in the halo at 8:00, with The Simpsons (3.9) about a third above its last premiere and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.6) up by double digits on last year's Bob's Burgers premiere.
  • It's pretty crazy that a huge bounce for the Frozen crossover on Once Upon a Time (3.4) is somehow playing second fiddle on this night. But it was still an incredible rating, zooming way past any rating from last season (including 31% above the 2013 premiere) to OUAT's biggest number since fall 2012. That helped Resurrection (2.2) skew a little younger and thus return pretty respectably, inching past last season's finale, but the heat was gone by Revenge (1.4) time. Revenge tied the spring finale but was down a whooping 39% from last season's start. ABC was +8% vs. last year's premiere Sunday.
  • CBS was left well behind as Madam Secretary (1.4) dropped 30% from its post-football premiere and CSI (1.4) had a slow start in its new Sunday slot. Madam is certainly not off the map yet, but it doesn't really look like something that would justify The Amazing Race's move to Friday. CBS was -19% vs. last year's premiere Sunday (also without an NFL overrun).
  • Cowboys-fueled football (8.7) was up nearly a point week-to-week.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time (R) 1.6 37% +78% +14% 2.1
Once Upon a Time 3.7 46% n/an/an/a 1/1 +42% +393% +40% 3.8
Resurrection 2.5 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 -34% +257% +6% 2.5
Revenge 1.5 33% n/an/an/a 1/1 -35% +150% +3% 1.7
ABC:+215%+18%
60 Minutes 1.1 14% -69%-2.4n/a 2/2 -21% -89% -19% 1.7
Madam Secretary 1.4 14% -30%-0.6-2.4 2/2 n/a -61% -30% 1.8
The Good Wife 1.3 15% -7%-0.1-0.6 2/2 -13% -35% -13% 1.7
CSI 1.3 18% n/an/an/a 1/1 -35% -10% -19% 1.7
CBS:-71%-21%
Football Night in America p2 1.2 40% +50%+0.4n/a 3/4 -40% +50% -40% 1.8
Football Night in America p3 4.6 45% +24%+0.9+0.4 3/4 +12% +21% +10% 5.0
Sunday Night Football 8.7 49% +12%+0.9+0.9 3/5 +14% +10% +14% 8.7
NBC:-2%-2%
NFL Overrun 9.0 44% +0%+0.0n/a 2/4 -3% +1186% -8% 9.3
The OT 6.3 49% +29%+1.4-1.3 1/2 +34% +600% +34% 4.8
The Simpsons 3.9 58% n/an/an/a 1/1 +34% +200% +34% 2.4
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 2.6 60% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +100% +18% 2.2
Family Guy 4.5 68% n/an/an/a 1/1 +73% +210% +91% 4.1
Fox:+334%+27%
Big4:+31%+7%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

35 comments:

Spot said...

Pretty impressive numbers for OUAT and FG, but since those were 'special' episodes it's hard to gauge their 'true' strength this season. Same with Brooklyn Nine-Nine: we'll see how well it's really doing when there isn't a big football game fuelling the whole night.

On the other hand, Revenge is probably dunzo this year. CSI should be able to hold on another year, but CBS certainly might prefer to let it go in order to get an extra year of syndie eps from the younger H50 and Blue Bloods.

Spot said...

Frozen does its magic again!
It should be seen how resilient it is though.

Revenge is too serialized at this point of its history to benefit from any kind of jump created by other programs.

It is also a special night with the Simpson-Family guy crossover and the curiosity around the Frozen side of OUAT, so the results of yesterday could just be outliers.

Spot said...

Is Revenge the lowest rated show on ABC this week? Even Nashville did better!

Somebody can check my numbers, but these are provisional weekly averages:
NBC: 2.8 (will rise in finals for Sunday football) vs. 3.1 in 2013 (-0.3)
CBS: 2.2 vs 2.2 (flat)
ABC: 2.1 vs 2.3 (-0.2)
Fox: 1.9 vs 2.2 (-0.3)

Brilliant Sunday saves FOX from even worse y/y fall. CBS flat by virtue of Thursday night football. Not a great start to 2014 for any network, but no megabombs either besides Utopia.

Spot said...

Keep in mind that a lot of the lower priority newbies have yet to premiere. I'm pretty sure that we'll be seeing some newbies bombing over the next few weeks.

Spot said...

Family Guy won't hold on to this number since the crossover's a one-time thing. But considering Frozen is the driving force behind the first-half of Once Upon a Time's season, the drama has a better chance to sustain upper-2s or higher if fan reception to Frozen's inclusion wasn't chilly (pun intended). And, sadly, I was right that Revenge would be more likely to stop ABC's Premiere Week momentum than Resurrection. At least Revenge shouldn't drop like Betrayal did and will give ABC growth in the timeslot on a y2y basis.

Spot said...

HUGE for Once Upon a Time. I was thinking something like 2.7/2.8, but 3.4? WOW!

Ditto for the Simpsons/Family Guy crossover, even if that one isn't much of a shocker to me. And Fox still wants to mess with the Animation Domination block...

Spot said...

Crikey, even FOX rallying. Frankly, I'm pretty dismayed at that number, if the sexist and racist joke I heard about before the episode was any guide to the rest of it.

Yet another primetime NFL blowout. SNF and TNF keep laying eggs, but MNF has had a close one every week if memory serves.

Spot said...

Yeah, that OUAT number messed up my Question guess - I hadn't banked on nearly that lead-in.

Spot said...

I'd argue that ABC had the best start of the four networks. Most, if not all, of its drop can be attributed to SHIELD's huge series debut last season. Granted they held back some pieces (Castle, Selfie, Manhattan Love Story, Last Man Standing, Cristela), but it's not like they were papered over with show that created a huge inflationary effect (Castle, Dancing with the Stars (Tues), and Shark Tank respectively).


Fox was "saved" by Sunday and Gotham. That's pretty much it.



NBC fell apart by Thursday, and I don't see any reason for that to change until the winter. For The Blacklist and Chicago Fire to nearly get back to last season's debut numbers even with a weaker The Voice lead-in is a real plus.


CBS also benefited from Big Brother's finale, which I don't think Stalker will be able to reach in its debut. If anything, the Eye network was the most transitional of the four nets during Premiere Week: Thursday's scripted stuff minus Big Bang is still off the map, Mondays at 8:30 are merely going from Big Bang original to Big Bang rerun instead of Mom (now The Millers), Under the Dome wrapped up instead of NCIS: LA debuting post-Scorpion, and the Criminal Minds/Stalker duo is still waiting.

Spot said...

Premiere week for me:

Big winners: The Big Bang Theory, Scorpion, Gotham, The Voice, The Blacklist, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, Black-ish, Survivor, Chicago Fire, SVU, Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, How to Get Away with Murder, Shark Tank, Once Upon a Time, Family Guy, The SImpsons

Very solid: Dancing with the Stars, Chicago PD, 20/20

Honorable mention: Forever, NCIS, Resurrection, Bones, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Parenthood

Somehow disappointing: The Middle, NCIS New Orleans, Hawaii Five-0



Just there: The Good Wife, Blue Bloods

Very disappointing: Sleepy Hollow, Person of Interest, CSI, The Biggest Looser

Loosers: Utopia, New Girl, The Mindy Project, Hell's Kitchen, Red Band Society, The Mysteries of Laura, Nashville, Revenge, Madam Secretary, The Amazing Race

Spot said...

And Ressurrection still underperformed anyway. Revenge too. Both should've done better, IMO.

Spot said...

You seem to be a fan of controversy Mr. Howell. The Biggest Loser, 60 Minutes, Simpsons/Family Guy. Nothing wrong with that. But I think Family Guy was no worse than usual and that joke that caused pre premiere controversy was actually less offensive in context. Not saying much though

Spot said...

To me, OUAT's boost is even more shocking than what happened at FOX, even though I didn't think FOX was capable of pulling those numbers anymore apart from sports. They are comedies, prone to casual viewing and had an episode hyped for an entire year.


OUAT is one of the most serialized shows on TV and jumped to a number it hasn't seen in one and a half year. That's just insane.


I am super happy about OUAT but devastated by Revenge though.

Spot said...

That ABC average should come with a big asterisk I feel. They had a two hour Modern Family last year as well as the huge premiere of Marvel's Agents of Shield. I feel like they are in much better "health" this year.

Spot said...

There's worse USPs to have on here. :) (Maybe it says a lot about the circles I follow on Twitter, not least the black feminists I mentioned last week in reference to the HTGAWM Question.)

Yeah, I got the impression that this is Family Guy's stock-in-trade. There's no point in me willing it towards the bear though because it's not even in the same forest as the FOX bear at this point.

Spot said...

At the moment, ABC look dominant down the back end of the week, NBC are frontloaded (but there's tentative signs that the transition from Voice reliance is underway, especially with Monday's numbers), CBS are in major flux as you say, and FOX... well, at least we know they can still draw a one-off crowd.

Spot said...

Yeah, that number has 88-and-out written all over it. Maybe if the writing is on the wall this early, the writers can wrap everything up this season.

Spot said...

It reminds me off SVU's premiere last year. This is a Series high in Plus! Its also a series high in Plus for Family Guy too!

Spot said...

Well, how much of Time's debut number holds in the coming weeks is also important. However, I do think it'll sustain better and make y2y comparisons very favorable. The drama's found a working formula to make the show accessible to new fans: introduce a new fairy tale/Disney property that's the dominant storyline while making the characters' development more overarching.

As for Revenge, my thought before the start of the season was it and Nashville are the veteran dramas on ABC marked for cancellation by May 2015. If Nashville's pulled from the sked, I can't wait to see how the Cancellation Bear spins that.

Spot said...

Sleepy Hollow and Ressurection are both down 42-43% y2y. Both had 63-65% retention from the lead in. Very parallel comparisons

Spot said...

Brooklyn Nine-Nine did decently. It had a BIG lead in boost, but doubling your finale isn't a given even with that lead. I say it did a tick or two better than Bob's Burgers would have done. Problem is it is between a 3.9 and 4.5, so it is kinda like the Post Friends, Pre Seinfeld slot in the '90s where top ten programs would sometimes cancelled.

Spot said...

Once Upon a Time did amazing. A serialized drama up 30% y2y is amazing. It DOUBLED its Easter episode last year. Resurrection did okay. Great considering none of The Following, Under the Dome, or Sleepy Hollow could match their finale rating. Even a comparable Scandal (short spring order) couldn't match it's finale rating and it had a massive lead in upgrade too! Revenge underperformed. It usually shoots up really for the premiere. Final season for sure

Spot said...

Madam Secretary really is Harry's Law 2.0! It even has Harry's final time slot. The Good Wife's viewership is crazy compared to the demo. It has had a 2.2 with the same amount of viewers before.
.
CSI is disappointing. Especially since it didn't start super late. Down 2 million viewers and up a tick in demo. The down in viewers, up in demo is the same relationship Good Wife and Miami had, just on a MUCH lower playing field. I can't see CSI returning. It is old and expensive.

Spot said...

I agree. I think holding back the Tuesday comedies is somehow masking it a bit but it will still be only one hour anyway and like I said, the gains in some of the hours (Sundays as a whole ,Thursday as a whole) are very big, not "minor" gains. And I don't think it's inconceivable that Selfie surprises and does well, in the same kind of way that New Girl did so well in its first year.

Right now, ABC needs to put major focus in the winter. They need to find a way to not loose momentum and not post raw numbers that penalize them too much. It's the cost of serials and they will pay it. How much will be the key.

Spot said...

Fox Sunday lineup looks great so far, but let's wait and see it in more usual circumstances.
Preliminary:
Family Guy - A18-34: 5.2, M18-34: 6.1, skewed 68% young.
The Simpsons - A18-34: 4.1, M18-34: around 5.0 I guess, skewed 58% young.
Brooklyn Nine-Nine A18-34: 2.7, M18-34: mid 3s I guess, skewed 61% young.


ABC - Before season started, Spot's (and in comments here) expectations were: OUAT renew; Resurrection bubble; Revenge ends this year. Needless to say, nothing changed after this premiere numbers.

CBS - Madam Secretary is dead.

Spot said...

Some of it is the quirks of the calendar (Thursday) while the other is how to deal with all the events (Sunday). But I think ABC's probably going to focus on Agent Carter's winter run on Tuesdays with Galavant a distant second. The win for ABC in 2014-2015 is its current shows holding up just as well in the Spring since it seems like the lack of momentum in the winter didn't hurt them last season.

Spot said...

Yeah, Family Guy's strong suit sure isn't being subtle. But its nothing new. I mean Family Guy and The Simpsons have both caused controversy for decades

Spot said...

CBS Sunday is quickly turning into a mess, not unexpectedly. How long can they maintain the Madam Wife/Good Secretary combo tent pole with such anemic ratings, glowing reviews or not?

Spot said...

While the Simpson's and Family Guy crossover event certainly delivered the goods and gave placeholder, Brooklyn-99 some much needed extra eyeballs, I wonder how B-99 will fare in the weeks ahead as the filling between two lighter slices of animation bread. I wonder if watching B-99 was an exercise performed begrudgingly for most viewers, waiting for the start of Family Guy. I commend FOX for trying this strategy but I honestly don't see B-99 gaining any significant traction in the long term but it will probably continue to perform better than it did in any of its other time slots last year only because of its popular animation neighbors.

Spot said...

Even though I don't consider The Good Wife as a procedural (there isn't quite fillers episodes like NCIS, CSI and Castle), I think the show suffers from the same "phenomenom" of skewing older than past seasons (Castle, for instance, did a 3.0 with 10 million viewers back in s2 and now hit low 2's with that same amount of viewers). Of course that with The Good Wife seems more impressive, right?

Spot said...

I expect OUAT premiering higher than season 2 because of the Frozen bumpe and because the show held up pretty well in the spring with the decision of split season due to the Olympics, but I couldn't imagine this 3.4. Everything is looking very good at FOX, but we'll have to wait until next week with normal programming. Seems like Madam Secretary is a goner after all.

Spot said...

I would put The Voice at solid at best. Tuesday was a good performance, but Monday was way down y2y!

Spot said...

A 1.3 is terrible anyway you spin it. But I think a 1.3 and 11 million viewers is a tiny bit more impressive than say a more usual 1.3 and 8.5 million viewers

Spot said...

Yes, I agree.

Spot said...

Are Family Guy's sub demos from an official press release or approximations based on past results? Either way it easily will be the top scripted show in 18-34 and especially M18-34 this week

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