Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 9/30/14: Will ABC Love Its Selfie?


Tonight's ABC comedy duo Selfie and Manhattan Love Story are the first two of six series premieres across the next three days. They're the kind of young female-targeted shows ABC has failed to make work with the Modern Family lead-in for the last three years, now airing in a slot with much less support. There's no comedy competition, but a chunk of these shows' target audience is likely watching The Voice on NBC. Selfie is getting some decent reviews and the much larger promo push vs. Manhattan. And its leads may be recognizable... albeit from seemingly incompatible genre shows/movies. ABC seems to be banking mostly on Selfie to get reviled Manhattan Love Story off the ground; I've seen practically no promos for just Manhattan. I'm going a tad higher than I originally planned due to ABC's recent results, but I still see this being a soft start. Will ABC Love its Selfie? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 30, 2014.

Selfie PLUS Manhattan Love Story Over/Under: 3.15.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

47 comments:

Spot said...

Under, Selfie (1.4) and Manhattan Love Story (0.9) *MLS: first to be cancelled*

Spot said...

ABC has been on a roll so far and it's the strongest network performer with females. Over. Selfie 2.5 and MLS 1.9

Spot said...

Over.

Around 3.5. I simply count on literally everything being able to surpass New Girl + Mindy (premiered at 3.0 combined A18-49). On a weekday, at least.

Spot said...

Selfie: 1.8
MLS: 1.5


Total: 3.3


Just barely Over.

Spot said...

That feels like a pretty low line. Can't see the average for the hour being sub-1.6, so Over.

Spot said...

Over (2.0 + 1.4)

Spot said...

I will wait until Monday finals are out to answer this one to see how big the momentum of ABC really is. If Castle by chance holds that premiere number I will have a hard time going against this line.

Spot said...

Well it seems everyone has been watching ABC to be aware of the promos..
I think that even with MLS being a bomb that Selfie can deliver enough tonight to take it OVER

Spot said...

I've seen Selfie, it's been online forever. It's one of these tepid romcom-without-the-com shows that NBC has been pushing for years with no success - Think Go On, Bent, About a Boy etc. I didn't see anything here to suggest that this one will be a breakout hit (since it has no lead in).

Comfortably Under

Spot said...

I also am waiting for finals for Monday to come out. But I do at least want to say that this is possibly my favorite-phrased Question headline you've used yet, Spot. I laughed pretty loudly to myself in my office when I first saw it.

Spot said...

Over. With the exception of Nashville, Forever and Revenge, everything on ABC premiered over a 2.0 and I saw a lot of promo for Selfie during TGIT. So even if MLS DOA, I believe Selfie should do well enough to go over the line.

Spot said...

Over, not betting against ABC just yet

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over 3.15 just because Selfie might actually do okay considering the promos it's been getting. Plus, the audience who saw the pilot early had given positive reactions.

Selfie: 2.23 Manhattan Love Story: 1.17

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

John Cho truly does have some nice comedy background for sure, but it really isn't in this type of comedy. ABC has surprisingly been pushing Karen Gillian's Guardians of the Galaxy connection, not Doctor Who. Which might have been understandable if she wasn't practically unrecognizable in comparison to how she looks in Selfie.
.
Anyways, I can't see Manhattan being a standout performer. I think Selfie could hit a 2.0 and it go over, but I could also see it premiering at a 1.4 and Manhattan going sub one. Honestly, I'm going to be optimistic because that has won me the most so far.
OVER (barely)

Spot said...

Under (Selfie: 1.8 + Manhattan Love Story: 1.3)

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

The finals really didn't help me out on this one. I don't know which way to go. I want to go over based on my personal rooting for both shows and because I think Selfie has very much a shot of resonating in the same type of way that New Girl did a few years ago. But how much of a shot? I was very convinced that Shield would cross the 2.5 barrier and it greatly missed it last week so it hasn't all been roses for ABC. DWTS wasn't particularly pretty last night either. I don't know.

Oh damn it, I am going Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under for sure. First line this season that hasn't caused me any doubt. Now, if I get this one wrong (which would be my fourth in a row wrong, I think), I will be TRULY shocked.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Selfie has been promoted soo much, and combined with ABC's momentum, I can't see it not premiering better than we expected back when the schedules were announced. That said, Manhattan Love Story has megabomb written over it, so i don't know…

Selfie: 1.9
Manhattan Love Story: 1.3
1.9+1.3=3.2 (are you kidding me)
Over, I might regret it though

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over at a combined 3.5


Selfie = 1.9
MLS = 1.6

Spot said...

Selfie: 1.7
Manhattan: 1.3


Under.

Spot said...

under. selfie 1.6, manhattan 1.4

Spot said...

Now if this was just about Selfie, I'd immediately say over. The show, while not the best reviewed, is getting a little bit of buzz compared to other shows, has been endlessly promoted, and has no comedy competition (though Voice was a bit of a danger)...but I have to put in Love Story into this, and man does this show look like a flop. Reviews are harsh, a cast of nobodies, and there is zero promotion, and the only promos there are consist of "Manhattan Love Story is a new romantic comedy coming to ABC...bye!" running for 5 seconds at best. And with the ad reports having Fresh off the Boat on Tuesdays in midseason shows how little chance it'll catch on.


But enough about that. Selfie, if we go with a self-starter on a night that has SHIELD in the low 2's and a reality series also targeting women, I'll put it at 2.0, behind the Trophy Wife premiere. Manhattan Love Story is 1.3, sub-1's next episode, then dunzo with repeats or double pumps of Selfie if the latter does bad.


So, despite the negativity, Over.

Spot said...

If Cristela somehow does well, they can try it on Tuesday 8:30 PM, and double pump Last Man Standing on Friday.
Same scenario is in play if Cristela rates just well-for-Friday, with Manhattan Love Story ratings really terrible.

Spot said...

Over. I'm optimistic that people will be hate-watching it.

Spot said...

That crowd is EXACTLY the crowd who would've watched the online pilot (which is apparently both longer and worse than the for-air pilot) weeks ago. No way that's gonna carry Selfie to the number it needs.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

You gotta hate-watch live so you can bitch on twitter with everyone else!

Spot said...

Hell no. I'm not subjecting myself to that shit twice.

Also, I think all the Twitter bitching was done weeks ago in the wake of the online release.

Spot said...

Under.


All I need is Manhattan to underperform.

Spot said...

Y'know what? This seems like the night where ABC's improbable run of momentum has to come to an end. Selfie is "Lol, social media makes people idiots", and has been advertised as such. Manhattan Love Story, based on the minimal promotion I've seen watching NASCAR on ESPN, seems to be "Men like boobs, women like purses, here's a heaping helping of them internally monologuing that". I just can't see even strong initial turnout for either, not even the 1.6 minimum both would need to boost themselves above the line.

Under.

Spot said...

I wanna say...over, only because both of these shows look decent to me.



Not because I think people will actually want to watch them.

Spot said...

Under. I just can't see these shows having any sort of pulse to begin with. Maybe Selfie will do okay, but MLS should drag the average down by a bit.

Spot said...

Grrr...my initial instinct of going under on Tuesday Questions has run into my optimism for ABC (which hasn't faded all that much even after DWTS went sub 2.0 and Castle dropped two ticks in finals). Manhattan Love Story will finally be the dud out of ABC's freshman class, but Selfie can probably overachieve enough to drag it over the finish for tonight.

Over.

P.S.: What Line did you originally want to set, Spot? I do think the instinct to bump it up is the right one to get a mix of guesses; a lower one probably would have resulted in way more Overs.

Spot said...

Under at a 2.8 (Selfie 1.7, MLS 1.1)
On a side note, CBS should have had NCIS:NO change every reference to the bubonic plague to Ebola in all of its advertisements and it would have probably gotten at least a 50% higher rating, particularly after today's news.

Spot said...

Over. For no logical reason. I expected both shows to crater but everything seems to be coming up ABC these days. For some reason.MLS is awful though so I anticipate a big drop next week. Who knows for sure though, since Tuesday is probably ABC's only real problematic night.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

They probably were but I doubt that would have make a difference. What would have been a more coherent plan? I certainly don't have one. We can say many things about CBS but they went out of their way and beyond to make sure all 4 of their new dramas had the best possible launching pads one could think of. I dare anyone to come up with a better scheduling for Madam Secretary, Scorpion, NCIS New Orleans and Stalker. If these shows fail, it will be entirely on the, not on CBS.

Premiering a new drama at 10 would have been a repeat of last year's mistakes IMO and just delaying the inevitable LA move for a few more years.

Probably the closest alternative would have been doing Scorpion/POI on Monday and all NCIS on Tuesday. I don't think any show involved would have benefited of such arrangement except for LA itself and, like I said, it would only be delaying the inevitable.

Spot said...

I think you can replace "ABC" by serials, it just so happens that ABC has plenty of them. When there are serials on other networks (FOX particularly) the effect is the same. But I wouldn't say "falling apart" especially in the case of veteran shows, that's doesn't happen that much often. The only cases of veterans really falling A LOT after very promising starts within the season that I can think of are OUAT and Revenge Season 2, but a lot of it was due to the horrible scheduling. And sohpmore shows are a lot more prone to this type of phenomenons anyway than are veterans (as in 4th year shows or older)

Spot said...

It is great that they are still able to premiere big, especially after so many mediocre debuts. There's a time where I thought ABC can no longer even bring in viewers for debuts especially when promising shows like Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue came in on very subpar ratings. But between SHIELD, Resurrection, Black-ish and How To Get Away With Murder, I guess ABC still has some ability to get people to sample. Same cannot be say for FOX though, with Gotham being so hyped, that 3.2 was great, but I suspect a stronger network like CBS, NBC or even ABC would have launched it higher.

Spot said...

I was thinking 2.85 or 2.95 (Selfie 1.6, Manhattan 1.3). Decided to give each show an extra tenth.

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