Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/4/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Fox's good night (and CBS' strong repeats) went unchanged in finals, but it got even worse for the comedies elsewhere. Selfie is now at twin 0.9's, while About a Boy (0.9) adjusted down by a truly brutal two tenths.

• On a night with a lot of repeats, clip shows and pre-emptions due to election coverage, Fox had the entertainment world almost completely to itself, and it appears they took major advantage. MasterChef Junior (1.8) returned two tenths above last year's Friday premiere and well above what the network has been getting lately from Hell's Kitchen. It'll probably drop once NCIS and The Voice are back; but if it holds close to this in finals (not sure about local pre-emptions), it seems likely to remain a stronger option than Hell's. This lead-in support also vaulted New Girl (1.6) and The Mindy Project (1.3), which had best-since-premiere numbers and beat the competing NBC comedies in the 9/8c hour.

• The comedies on other networks didn't benefit against reduced competition; Marry Me (1.3) and About a Boy (1.1) each dropped again following a The Voice clip show (2.3), while a double-dose of Selfie was down for ABC (1.0 at 8:00, 0.9 at 8:30). ABC then sat out Agents of SHIELD for a weaker Marvel special (1.2). CBS and the CW were in full repeat/election coverage mode.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/21/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The World Series had its lowest Game 1 ever in adults 18-49 (3.4) and was down 19% from last year's opener (and two tenths behind the previous low from 2012). The superhero shows got some finals help, as Agents of SHIELD (1.6) avoided a new low and The Flash (1.5) ended up down just two tenths. The finals were not so kind to Marry Me (1.8), now 22% behind the premiere. And its The Voice lead-in (3.3) got a two-tenth boost, making Marry Me look even worse by comparison.

• NBC's comedies Marry Me (1.9) and About a Boy (1.4) were each down nearly 20% in week two. Marry Me probably shouldn't be counted out, as this is still just a touch behind the pace AaB set last spring. But it's not a good development for AaB, which dropped to the low end of what NBC got from Growing Up Fisher. Again, Chicago Fire (1.9) looked like a big winner in all this, even week-to-week despite the drops in the 9/8c hour.

•  The CW's The Flash (1.4) took a bigger drop in week three than it did in week two, but apparently it was even in 18-34. So maybe Fox's older-skewing World Series had the same kind of bizarrely large effect that it's always had with Arrow.

• On ABC, the bookend shows that dropped big last week each bounced back by a tenth: Selfie (1.1) and Forever (1.2). However, Agents of SHIELD (1.5) could be headed for another new low at 9/8c. This may be another World Series thing, but it can also at least partly thank a truly horrendous showing from Manhattan Love Story (0.7). The comedies are pre-empted next week anyway, but it's pretty hard to see Manhattan coming back on the other side of that.

• CBS saw the NCIS mothership (2.4) continue its kinda worrying downward trickle but got a promising hold from NCIS: New Orleans (2.4).

• And Fox had Game 1 of the World Series, moving Game 1 to Tuesday after it opened on Wednesday for the last seven years. (Presumably this is a move to help it avoid the NFL as much as possible.) The overnights indicate it was down double digits from last year's opener, not a stunner given the smaller-market matchup. More after finals!

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/14/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: NBC avoided a drop for Marry Me, but About a Boy (1.7) and Chicago Fire (1.9) looked a little worse. The superhero shows remained tied as The Flash (1.7) and Agents of SHIELD (1.7) each added a tenth. That means Flash had an above-average week two hold of an incredible premiere number.

• NBC had a pretty "meh" start to its latest post-The Voice (3.3) comedy effort. Marry Me (2.3) began a couple tenths below About a Boy's first original in the hour in March, and it may adjust down. And the season two premiere of About a Boy (1.8) was just kind of there at 9:30, down a half point from Marry Me but bouncing back a bit from its late-spring episodes after The Voice. It wasn't an awful hour for NBC, especially since The Voice was kinda soft, but it's not a great base to start from since The Voice tends to drop later in the season. The show that looked best in all this was the 10/9c occupant Chicago Fire (2.0), which grew from About a Boy as it did from Growing Up Fisher in the spring.

• Tuesday's big winner was again The Flash (1.6) on the CW, down a perfectly typical 16% in week two. When you're starting from a premiere as huge as last week's, a typical week two drop is a very good thing. And it could adjust up again.

• Nobody in the 9/8c hour seemed to benefit from NBC no longer airing two-hour The Voice episodes. NCIS: New Orleans (2.2) was down a tenth (just like the other two CBS shows), while New Girl (1.2) may have been more affected by having to compete with a comedy. ABC's Tuesday problems intensified as Selfie (1.0) and Forever (1.1) each shed a couple more tenths.

First Two Weeks, Selfie

WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.6
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: NCIS (2.6 overall, 2.6 at 8:00), The Voice (4.1 overall, 3.4 at 8:00), Utopia (0.8 overall, 0.8 at 8:00), iHeartRadio Music Festival (0.4 overall, 0.4 at 8:00).

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/7/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC was not quite as fortunate as usual in finals but still got upticks for Selfie (1.2, still down 25% from last week) and Agents of SHIELD (1.7, still a new low). The CW saw The Flash (1.9) get even bigger but Supernatural (1.1) drop below last year's premiere.

• The CW's highest-stakes night of the season zoomed past "great for CW" numbers and into "potential network game-changer" territory. The Flash (1.8) got the highest raw rating for a CW scripted series since season one of The Vampire Diaries back in 2009-10, and its premiere was almost certainly more impressive than that of TVD (2.1) given the five years that have elapsed since then. It's still very early, but it's hard to see this show not being the CW's biggest series this season, and it may even stack up very high on the historical spectrum. This was a massive, massive win for the network.

• I had never really bought into the idea that the network might move Supernatural (1.2) within this season to launch something post-Flash, but tonight's ratings would seem to open that door. It was another really good rating for SPN, but only even with last year's premiere and a tenth above the May finale. The CW may see its optimum midseason schedule including Supernatural on another night, as its ratings would probably not completely crater elsewhere. But we're still a long way from knowing just how big a launch-pad The Flash will be.

• After a not-completely-DOA start last week, ABC's new comedies are officially on death watch. Compared with last week's finals, Selfie (1.1) was down 31% and Manhattan Love Story (0.9) down a massive 40%. These shows both adjusted up two tenths last week, so the drops may not end up that ugly, but they're still going to be bad. Agents of SHIELD (1.6) and Forever (1.3) also hit new lows again, which (as I said last week) could inspire speedier action by the network in the 8:00 hour.

• CBS and Fox were mostly steady, as a repeat of Family Guy (0.9) provided only a teeny improvement on last week's Utopia. NBC aired a two-hour The Voice clip show (2.4), and Chicago Fire (2.1) held on pretty strong. (It tied last year's rating in this same situation.)

SpotVault - Selfie (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings

Selfie

Tuesdays, 8/7c, ABC

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/30/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another big day at the adjustment bureau as Selfie (1.6) and Manhattan Love Story (1.5) took two-tenth leaps that might buy them more short-term time than originally thought (but the long-term prospects still look dim). Agents of SHIELD (1.8), Forever (1.4), The Voice (4.1) and New Girl (1.3) also upticked, while Chicago Fire (2.3) dropped.

• ABC's nearly week-long streak of good luck came to a decisive halt on Tuesday #2 as new comedies Selfie (1.4) and Manhattan Love Story (1.3) bombed. It's a particularly devastating blow for the much heavier-promoted Selfie, which was not able to display any separation from even its much-hated lead-out Manhattan. ABC could spring into action pretty quickly on this night because of how things went in the subsequent two hours. Agents of SHIELD (1.7) plummeted to a new low (though it tends to adjust up, so it may not end up being an outright low), while the premiere week underdog story that was Forever (1.3) came to a crashing halt with a whooping 28% drop. Forever remained a big improvement in a historically awful timeslot for ABC, but the long-term prospects look much darker now.

• CBS and NBC had another night of good week two holds as NCIS (2.6) dropped about 10%, newbie NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) was promisingly down just two tenths from last week and Person of Interest (1.8) actually inched up. NBC's The Voice (4.0) held up again and Chicago Fire (2.4) was down two tenths (maybe three after finals).

• Fox's New Girl (1.2) lost another tenth, but The Mindy Project (1.1) gained one back.

The Question, Tuesday 9/30/14: Will ABC Love Its Selfie?

Tonight's ABC comedy duo Selfie and Manhattan Love Story are the first two of six series premieres across the next three days. They're the kind of young female-targeted shows ABC has failed to make work with the Modern Family lead-in for the last three years, now airing in a slot with much less support. There's no comedy competition, but a chunk of these shows' target audience is likely watching The Voice on NBC. Selfie is getting some decent reviews and the much larger promo push vs. Manhattan. And its leads may be recognizable... albeit from seemingly incompatible genre shows/movies. ABC seems to be banking mostly on Selfie to get reviled Manhattan Love Story off the ground; I've seen practically no promos for just Manhattan. I'm going a tad higher than I originally planned due to ABC's recent results, but I still see this being a soft start. Will ABC Love its Selfie? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 30, 2014.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 8/7c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Tuesday 8/7c hour, when several newbies will try to make inroads against tough incumbents NCIS and The Voice.