Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/4/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Fox's good night (and CBS' strong repeats) went unchanged in finals, but it got even worse for the comedies elsewhere. Selfie is now at twin 0.9's, while About a Boy (0.9) adjusted down by a truly brutal two tenths.
  • On a night with a lot of repeats, clip shows and pre-emptions due to election coverage, Fox had the entertainment world almost completely to itself, and it appears they took major advantage. MasterChef Junior (1.8) returned two tenths above last year's Friday premiere and well above what the network has been getting lately from Hell's Kitchen. It'll probably drop once NCIS and The Voice are back; but if it holds close to this in finals (not sure about local pre-emptions), it seems likely to remain a stronger option than Hell's. This lead-in support also vaulted New Girl (1.6) and The Mindy Project (1.3), which had best-since-premiere numbers and beat the competing NBC comedies in the 9/8c hour.
  • The comedies on other networks didn't benefit against reduced competition; Marry Me (1.3) and About a Boy (1.1) each dropped again following a The Voice clip show (2.3), while a double-dose of Selfie was down for ABC (1.0 at 8:00, 0.9 at 8:30). ABC then sat out Agents of SHIELD for a weaker Marvel special (1.2). CBS and the CW were in full repeat/election coverage mode.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 0.9 31% -18%-0.2n/a 5/5 n/a -18% -64% 1.0
Selfie 0.9 35% +0%+0.0n/a 5/6 n/a -25% -64% 1.1
Marvel: From Pulp to Pop 1.2 45% n/a -31% -8% 1.2
ABC Election Coverage 0.7 28% n/a -39% -7% 1.1
ABC:-31%-38%
NCIS: New Orleans (R) 1.4 18% -45% -52% 1.4
NCIS (R) 1.5 17% -35% -39% 1.4
CBS Election Coverage 0.8 19% n/a -52% -58% 1.0
CBS:-43%-49%
The Voice Tue 2.3 30% -21%-0.6n/a 7/7 -22% -22% +10% 2.2
Marry Me 1.3 36% -13%-0.2-0.6 4/4 n/a -13% -64% 1.1
About a Boy 0.9 32% -25%-0.3-0.2 4/4 n/a -25% -74% 0.9
NBC Election Coverage 0.9 27% n/a -47% -71% 1.3
NBC:-28%-51%
MasterChef Junior 1.8 45% n/an/an/a 1/1 +13% -33% +20% 1.8
New Girl 1.6 60% +33%+0.4+1.2 2/6 -20% -61% -20% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.3 58% +18%+0.2+0.4 1/6 -13% -67% -13% 1.1
Fox:-51%+0%
The Flash (R) 0.6 44% -57% -37% 0.6
Supernatural (R) 0.5 59% -33% -47% 0.5
CW:-49%-42%
Big5:-43%-39%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

48 comments:

Spot said...

I wonder why Masterchef Jr. has to have such short seasons. FOX could certainly benefit from a more extended season. I don't think New Girl will ever have such a decent lead-in for the remainder of the season.

As for the Marvel special, it did its job which was to beat what a Shield repeat would have done. New Orleans gathering a 1.4 for a repeat while leading off the night is quite impressive though, no wonder CBS doesn't program originals on Tuesdays during summer.

Spot said...

Supposedly The CW was afraid some/many of their affiliates would air their local coverage of elections, no matter what they schedule. So they went better safe than sorry route.

Speaking of which, those Fox numbers look inflated, and CBS numbers to some extent too. Let's wait for finals.

Spot said...

I am quite surprised too at first that Masterchef Junior had so few episodes. Maybe it's a lower-budget spin off, or maybe because the kids have some kind of contract that is overseen by the adults, since they have school and stuff, so they can't really be doing 18 episodes.

Spot said...

My gut says MasterChef Jr has such short seasons because it involves kids. There's labor laws about how long kids can "work" on sets, and I don't think parents want their kids wrapped up in a multi-week (or multi-month) process that would disrupt their schooling.

Spot said...

They ordered 58 hours of Utopia. Made them feel warm and fuzzy about reality department.

Spot said...

Yeah no possible answer to that lol, FOX and its mistakes is something incredible.

Spot said...

That's a very good guess and the one I am most inclined to believe.

Spot said...

Apparently FOX was not preempted though. Berman is reporting preemptions for the big three only, so I dunno.

Spot said...

Wonder if they could work around that by way of running multiple seasons a year. It would only add up to roughly one regular full season of anything else, so the burnout potential isn't there like it is with NBC double pumping The Voice to oblivion.

Spot said...

That's a good idea. But FOX really has to be careful. I am of the opinion that they've ruined Hell's Kitchen by forcing it to return this early and by forcing it to go up against Survivor. I mean, the show was getting very high 1s last Spring and the slot wasn't easier than the one it currently has, it is clearly people being tired.

Spot said...

FOX wouldn't pull those numbers for midterm election coverage anyway, they don't even pull that off for presidential results if memory serves. They let FNC pull in the election result crowd (presumably people either gravitate there or wouldn't touch FOX with a bargepole for news because of FNC's partisan reputation).

Spot said...

Yeah, that slot should have gone to Masterchef Jr and Hell's should've been saved for a better situation.

Spot said...

None of the numbers for the Big 3 look overly inflated in prelims. The one network that doesn't have a news department (Fox), though, does look wacky. That New Girl would get such a bounce from MasterChef Jr and SHIELD/NCIS: NoLa sitting out the night feels false. I don't necessarily think Junior is overly high considering how strong the show was last season on Fridays, but it also had the most favorable conditions that won't be replicated until near the end of its season.

ABC clearly needs to stop with these types of Specials. This and the Star Wars thing last week just aren't cutting it. Yes, it's better than a SHIELD repeat but maybe there should have been an original episode on anyway with a NCIS rerun in the hour. If ABC wants a Special it needs to be more of an Event like David Blaine's program last year, a Nik Wallenda tightrope walk, or something thing along those lines.

Spot said...

Yes, that's good idea. And probably they're already going in that direction. Remember, they ordered 3rd season of MasterChef Junior already in March. I suspect that 3rd season is already ready, because somewhere it was mentioned both S2 & S3 would both be produced during last spring. So we might get 7 more episodes of MCJ next spring if some midseason show fails. Correction, when some midseason show fails

Spot said...

Nationally Fox may not have been preempted (they'd just run a simulcast of FNC like when there's a State of the Union address), but the larger markets may have broken in with local coverage for big races. I'm thinking areas like Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, and Dallas since those were states with hotly contested governor races. I wasn't home last night so I don't know if WTTG (Fox's O&O in DC) broke in to cover Maryland's governor and Virginia's Senate race results.

Spot said...

I think The CW would have been wiser to air an original Flash episode since the early hour of prime time is much less likely to be interrupted with election updates. The Flash demographic is also the least likely to show any interest in politics anyway. It just seems too soon to be breaking the cycle of new episodes for your biggest hit. There's always a risk that momentum for these new shows can take a little hit. Repeats of both Supernatural and SHIELD made more sense as the election updates were starting to pick up in the middle hour of prime time.

Spot said...

Love that "when." :)

Spot said...

Here in PA, the governors race has been over for weeks. If Philly broke in, it'd probably be for Wolf giving a victory speech, but not much else. If anything, 8 o'clock (at least in Pennsylvania) was pre-empted, but not 9 or 10.

Spot said...

That Marvel special did the same as Emily Van Camp's other ABC show, so I think it did okay

Spot said...

Mastechef Junior not only is rating better than Hell's Kitchen, that premiere is better than Masterchef prime this summer!

Spot said...

If I'm NBC, I would be set for starting all over with comedy in the spring. I'm not sure if About a Boy has a 13 or 22 episode order, but if it is 13 I'd cancel the lot. Pair Parks with UKS and put two new after the Voice. Honestly, throwing everything they have at the wall and seeing what sticks isn't the best plan, but that's all they can really do

Spot said...

Most Specials exist because they, in theory, are supposed to post spectacular numbers and artificially inflate a network's average in a given week or Sweeps period. Hence all of the awards shows (Oscars, Grammys, Golden Globes, Billboard Music Awards, CMA Awards, People's Choice, Academy of Country Music Awards, etc.). If Specials are started to be treated as mere filler, though, what's the point? Are the few extra tenths that they earn better than the ability to amortize the cost of a show by airing a rerun instead? The best example is David Blaine: Real or Magic special from last year. It did phonemically well last year and only the Dancing with the Stars finales came within spitting distance of its rating.

My preference would be to have these kind of info-tainment Specials on a low priority night like Friday or Saturday. But that's me.

Spot said...

Fox lineup not adjusted in finals, wow. That's great for MasterChef Junior, and nice improvement for comedies - that should be something like 1.8 / 1.6 in W18-34. Where's Lynn when we need her (or him?) for subdemo ratings?

Not good for Selfie and NBC comedies, but that's not news.

Spot said...

Which two new? If UKS is paired with Parks, there's only 6 episodes of Mr. Robinson / One Big Happy each left (they nixed Mission Control).

But perhaps they can extend those short orders. Or make The Voice results show be 90 minutes (I suppose they can do it, but I'm not sure if format allows it, honestly).

Spot said...

They can surely add filler in the form of guest performances. I mean, that is how they pad these shows to 60 minutes in the first place.

Spot said...

Could this be the first year a network has no returning comedies? Or could even NBC go the CW route? I doubt the latter, but the former...75% chance. C'mon Tina and Ellen, I know you got it in ya. Or Craig could do it, but I want Kimmy or One Big Happy to succeed more.

Spot said...

Oh, and premiere dates are here for ABC...well, some of them:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/11/05/abc-announces-premiere-dates-for-galavant-and-marvels-agent-carter/324468/

TGIT week before Blacklist? Holy crap!

But what's with the March dates for Once and Shield? I don't know the episode counts, but especially in Galavant's case, I'm not sure if it will air forever. That is unless something like Whispers or Members Only, or Fresh Off the Boat, or Body of Proof, or something takes over.

Spot said...

Sunday lineup premieres on March 1, because The Oscars are week earlier, to get big promotion from it (see: Resurrection example). Sunday shows will have split season like Thursday shows, but will air in December,

Shield returns in March because they will air 8 episodes of Agent Carter in its timeslot, so called bridge.

Spot said...

BTW, most notable thing is American Crime premiere is NOT confirmed for March 1, Sunday 9 PM. Either it lost that timeslot, either ABC is still mulling over it.

Spot said...

Agreed that NBC should give up on comedies, but ABC needs to give up on non-family comedies too.

Spot said...

Marry Me 18 episodes: "The network has ordered five additional episodes of the freshman comedy, bringing the total order to 18 episodes.".

While not ordering full 22 definitely confirms cancellation, this additional order seems ludicrous. And definitely points to NBC having no confidence in their midseason comedies.

Spot said...

Or they haven't confirmed it.

Spot said...

Seems to be what SSTW was supposed to be with its original pickup. Just a bridge until one of the new midseason shows air. If we go by that, maybe one of the six-episode series replaces it, or what you said in lack of confidence of midseason.

Spot said...

I don't think so. 18 episodes means they are done in the last week of February while still taking two weeks off for Christmas (or the first week of March if they take off one extra week in december for the voice finale). It connects with the apprentice season order and it definitely makes me feel that we are going to see the voice returning to the schedule only by then. It's just filler for the voice hiatus. Wonder what's the deal with about a boy though. In any case, I am pretty sure we will be seeing two new comedies (or, very outside shot, a new drama) Tuesdays at 8 in March when the voice premieres its spring cycle.

Spot said...

Body of Proof?

Spot said...

Jokes. They exist. I made one.

Spot said...

I would prefer TGIT to come back the week after and go head to head with NBC. Not only for the excitement it would entail but also because the episode orders would just fit much better. This way they will be forced to mix in some repeats in there or preempt a Thursday altogether (which, if they have a decent reason to, is not bad, I admit).

Other than that it looks as expected. I am way more curious about what will air before Carter and before Shield.

Spot said...

Ahaha I thought it was a legitimate mistake or something

Spot said...

Yes, that's probably it. And, yes this is indirect confirmation of The Voice returning in first week of March (or last week of February).

Spot said...

On second thought, I think this probably means About a Boy is pulled from Tuesday effective immediately, and Parks & Recreations to premiere two weeks from now, Tuesday 9:30 PM.
Now I think they plan to burn off doomed Marry Me and Parks final season in pair, and until late February, then launching something else out of spring The Voice cycle. And maybe it doesn't show lack of confidence of midseason after all.

This is good moment to overhaul Tuesday anyway, because next week Tuesday comedies are preempted, with The Voice helping triple crossover CF/SVU/CPD. Next week's schedule is:
Mon: 8-10 PM Voice live show / The Blacklist
Tue: 8-10 PM Voice live show / Chicago Fire
Wed: Voice results show / SVU / Chicago PD

They planned to call Grimm to the party too, but he lost his powers, so who needs poor bastard.

Spot said...

EDIT: Scratch that. Numbers doesn't match. I didn't accounted for holidays.
It's something else, and I don't know what exactly. I just know we can count both Marry Me and About a Boy as de facto cancelled.

Spot said...

That reminds me. We haven't heard of David Blaine doing another special for ABC. You think they'd be all over that.

Spot said...

Same with a tightrope walk stunt. Though I think in that case there are liability issues that are preventing it from happening on ABC again; the network and insurers want a harness to catch Nik if he falls but he doesn't want one.

Spot said...

Deadline reported About a Boy has a 22 episode order.

Spot said...

Per deadline, in last night's article: "Marry Me‘s Tuesday companion, sophomore About a Boy, has a full-season 22-episode order despite premiering in midseason."

My guess is that About a Boy airs 14 episodes on Tuesday and then goes elsewhere to pair with Parks and Recreation final season for burnoff (assuming they give P&R a one-hour season finale, which I see NBC doing). Marry Me will have to pull double duty in its last two weeks because of that.

18/11: The Voice + Marry Me 1x05 + About a Boy 2x05
25/11: The Voice + Marry Me 1x06 + About a Boy 2x06
02/12: The Voice + Marry Me 1x07 + About a Boy 2x07
09/12: The Voice + Marry Me 1x08 + About a Boy 2x08
16/12: Voice finale
23/12: Holidays break
30/12: Holidays break
06/01: Game Night 3x01 + Marry Me 1x09 + About a Boy 2x09
13/01: Game Night 3x02 + Marry Me 1x10 + About a Boy 2x10
20/01: Game Night 3x03 + Marry Me 1x11 + About a Boy 2x11
27/01: Game Night 3x04 + Marry Me 1x12 + About a Boy 2x12
03/02: Game Night 3x05 + Marry Me 1x13 + About a Boy 2x13
10/02: Game Night 3x06 + Marry Me 1x14 + About a Boy 2x14
17/02: Game Night 3x07 + Marry Me 1x15 + Marry Me 1x16
24/02: Game Night 3x08 + Marry Me 1x17 + Marry Me 1x18
03/03: The Voice + New Comedies

This misses out on two Game Night episodes but they could easily be added to the summer season. You may ask me why they didn't simply do two hours of Game Night on 17/02 and 24/02 and I have no idea.
.

Meanwhile, on Mondays, it can probably be:
17/11: The Voice + The Voice + State of Affairs 1x01
24/11: The Voice + The Voice + State of Affairs 1x02
01/12: The Voice + The Voice + State of Affairs 1x03
08/12: The Voice + The Voice + State of Affairs 1x04
15/12: The Voice + The Voice + State of Affairs 1x05
22/12: Holidays break
29/12: Holidays break
05/01: The Apprentice 7x01 + The Apprentice 7x02 + ?
12/01: The Apprentice 7x03 + The Apprentice 7x04 + ?
19/01: The Apprentice 7x05 + The Apprentice 7x06 + ?
26/01: The Apprentice 7x07 + The Apprentice 7x08 + ?
02/02: The Apprentice 7x09 + The Apprentice 7x10 + ?
09/02: The Apprentice 7x11 + The Apprentice 7x12 + ?
16/02: The Apprentice 7x13 + The Apprentice 7x14 + ?
23/02: The Apprentice 7x15 + The Apprentice 7x16 + ?
02/03: The Voice + State of Affairs 1x?


I cannot predict whether or not State of Affairs will be forced to air after the apprentice without knowing its season order, it's impossible. If it is 13 I highly doubt it. If it is 18 it is possible, though not necessary that they force it to air there.

Spot said...

I can probably agree with this, though the result would have probably been Hell's premiering last night instead. But even that would have been an improvement for it and I don't think it would have hurt Masterchef Jr. either.

Spot said...

I don't get your rationale.

Assuming these specials are mostly free since they are essentially clip shows, then why isn't it better to gain a 1.2 for a special than a 0.7 for a repeat? The marginal revenue is certainly to be higher than the marginal cost, so what is disadvantage?

Of course this only holds if ratings for special > ratings for repeats, so the Star Wars thing for instance wouldn't qualify. Stuff like NBC preempting Dateline for low rated specials also doesn't qualify. But in this case of the Marvel clip show I think it is smart that ABC does it.

Spot said...

In all fairness, New Girl got a 1.4 a couple of episodes ago so a 1.6 with double the lead-in and half the competition (if even that much) isn't that strange.

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