These rankings include results through Sunday, November 9.
More November True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
|The Animated Anchors|
That Simpsons/Family Guy crossover on Premiere Sunday was something to behold, and those numbers count, but they have created y2y trends that are not that representative of reality, and they're probably not going to be representative of reality even at the end of the season. If it airs as many originals as last season, Family Guy needs to average only about a 1.8 the rest of the way to drop just 10% for the season, even though that 1.8 would be down over 20% from what Guy did from this point forward. Or it could average a 2.1 the rest of the way and break even for the season, even though that would be down 10%+ over that period. In other words, wherever Family Guy ends up, the y2y trend will be about 10 points higher due to premiere night alone. That's a staggering difference.
The Simpsons' 20% growth is not as driven by premiere night (it was only up year-to-year by half as much, and only a single-length episode), though four of its six episodes had the direct NFL lead-in vs. just two of the first six last year. Its number will probably still be somewhat inflated at season's end, but it's at least done a little better than Guy even on the non-overrun nights, not yet dipping below 2.0. We'll see if that continues once The Walking Dead clears out of Family Guy's slot.
|The Second Tier|
|6||The Mindy Project||1.14||1.20||-24%||60%||35%|
Before MasterChef Junior premiered, you could legitimately say that Brooklyn Nine-Nine getting second-tier animation numbers was Fox's second-biggest win of the season behind Gotham. That says much more about Fox than it does about Nine-Nine. But so far this show has been OK, and it's fit in pretty nicely on Sunday skew-wise. Most of its True numbers have actually been higher than the average above, but this may be more representative of what happens when the NFL overrun help is permanently gone.
New Girl is middling on the Fox hierarchy in A18-49, which means it should be safe for renewal since it always vastly overachieves its A18-49 ratings in ad rates. The Mindy Project is once again decidedly below middling in A18-49, but it also vastly overachieves its A18-49 ratings in ad rates. Tracking -24% year-to-year would be a damaging trend on most networks, but Fox is in such a sad state that it's barely losing any ground. Even at a very low-1 rating, Fox has seen 4.5 of its 5.5 newbie hours rate significantly worse, and that's before accounting for Mindy's favorable skew! Can it get through yet another renewal finish line, or were there also "Kevin Reilly pet project" motivations that made the difference in the past? As long as it keeps overachieving in ad rates, and it did it again this year, I will always be very hesitant to count this show out.
Not sure why the Mulaney move to 7:30 took so long. As time passes on broadcast TV, pull-me-now situations are inherently tougher to find due to the weakening of repeats. But as a part of one of the best-repeating blocks on TV, this was certainly one of them. Maybe it only survived because Fox can't be bothered to air original Family Guy and needed the repeats for the regular slot...
Gotham has been trending about the same as last year's Sleepy Hollow in A18-49+ terms. It'll probably end up lower due to the longer episode order. But on a network that is (being generous) 10% weaker relative to the big four average, Fox will take it very happily. Their next task is to find a way to avoid the sophomore slump that has plagued this kind of show lately.
Sleepy Hollow has fit pretty cleanly into the "limited series" mold of The Following and Under the Dome from a year-to-year standpoint, which is a big disappointment. At the very least, the Gotham lead-in should've helped it do somewhat better, and the network still promotes this show very heavily during the NFL. But it's still getting Fox's third-biggest ratings from Monday to Friday. If The Following could get a third season, it's hard right now to see Hollow ending. The cupboard is just too bare on the network.
Bones is the other show like Castle that randomly fell off a cliff just before the numbers included in the average above. In the first month of the season, the show's 1.6 average on Thursday was arguably one of the network's biggest positives. 1.3 seems like a different story. Fox won't have enough players with higher ratings than Bones to fill its 2015-16 schedule, but costs become a concern in this marginal territory.
|The Other Newbies|
|4||Red Band Society||1.11||0.95||40%||33%|
In a season with Utopia, Gracepoint and Mulaney, Red Band Society is somehow Fox's second-strongest newbie. But at this 18-49 rating level, its only prayer is that it has a The Mindy Project-esque demographic profile, warranting ad rates vastly ahead of its A18-49 ratings. Just looking at the type of show it is, that wouldn't seem impossible, and it does skew reasonably female (more than anything on the network this fall, including New Girl and Mindy). But the age and 18-34 skew are not as impressive. It is very unlikely to be enough.
I'm headed for another season of underestimating MasterChef Junior by 40%ish, so congrats to that show. What it pulled off last fall was very impressive by Fox Friday standards, but I looked at how Bones fared in its return to the midweek and just didn't see this coming. As a non-viewer, I've always kinda considered the MasterChef and Hell's Kitchen brands to be interchangeable, but this fall has certainly put that thinking to bed.