Friday, November 21, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/20/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: After finals adjustments, it was still a big week-to-week drop for The Big Bang Theory (4.1), while Mom (2.5) landed down a tenth and Two and a Half Men (2.2) up a tenth vs. last week. NBC's The Biggest Loser (1.1) ended up tying its season low, but the schizophrenic Parenthood (1.3) bounced all the way back from last week's huge drop. Reign hit a truly ugly 0.3.
  • Fall finale week for TGIT produced a nice bit of growth for How to Get Away with Murder (3.1), up for the third straight week and hitting its biggest number since week three. But there were no real spikes for Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (3.1).
  • CBS should suffer less Thursday Night Football pre-emption damage than usual, as the only pre-emption was in the Pacific time zone, but some of the early programming was bumped. In preliminaries, The Big Bang Theory (4.0) took a noticeable hit, Mom (2.7) and Two and a Half Men (2.3) were slightly up, and The McCarthys (1.4) and Elementary (1.0) were flat.
  • NBC may take more finals damage due to a Kansas City pre-emption; as of now, The Biggest Loser (1.3), Bad Judge (1.2), A to Z (0.9) and Parenthood (1.5) were all up.
  • On the CW, The Vampire Diaries (0.8) recovered last week's one-tenth drop, while everything else there and on Fox was flat.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 2.4 37% +0%+0.0n/a 4/8 -8% +2% +182% 2.4
Scandal 3.1 39% -3%-0.1+0.0 4/9 +7% -3% +22% 2.8
How To Get Away With Murder 3.1 40% +7%+0.2-0.1 3/9 n/a +7% +9% 2.8
ABC:+2%+38%
The Big Bang Theory 4.1 36% -9%-0.4n/a 9/10 -23% -9% -23% 3.8
Mom 2.5 31% -4%-0.1-0.4 2/4 +32% -4% -11% 1.9
Two and a Half Men 2.2 32% +5%+0.1-0.1 2/4 +5% +5% +0% 2.0
The McCarthys 1.4 28% +0%+0.0+0.1 3/4 n/a +0% -33% 1.4
Elementary 1.0 20% +0%+0.0+0.0 3/4 -44% +0% -43% 1.3
CBS:-3%-23%
The Biggest Loser 1.1 32% -8%-0.1n/a 10/11 -42% -4% +10% 1.2
Bad Judge 0.9 33% +0%+0.0-0.1 5/8 n/a +0% +0% 1.1
A to Z 0.7 36% +17%+0.1+0.0 6/8 n/a +17% -22% 1.0
Parenthood 1.3 41% +30%+0.3+0.1 2/9 +8% +24% +8% 1.6
NBC:+8%+3%
Bones 1.3 31% +0%+0.0n/a 5/8 -13% +4% -10% 1.4
Gracepoint 0.7 28% -13%-0.1+0.0 7/8 n/a -13% -52% 0.9
Fox:-2%-31%
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 60% +14%+0.1n/a 3/8 -38% +7% -36% 0.8
Reign 0.3 35% -25%-0.1+0.1 8/8 -57% -25% -57% 0.4
CW:-4%-44%
Big5:+0%-8%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

77 comments:

Spot said...

Great, thanks!!

CBS obviously has some big issues, but Wednesday and Thursday at 10 could be fixed quite easily. Why they refuse to make changes just boggles my mind (especially Wednesday).

Spot said...

Just because viewers start watching a different show live instead, doesn't mean they will automatically switch back to their old one when it's on hiatus.

Spot said...

Out of curiosity, this doesn't include sports, right?


Because I find kind of impressive that ABC is going to win despite Sunday Night Football on NBC (even though ABC has a huge awards show this sunday).

Spot said...

What's even crazier is that in the same week last year Big Bang beat Modern Family by nearly 2 FULL POINTS!

Spot said...

I assumed TBBT is on hiatus only one week. Thanks.
Yes, for high PUT January, my above prediction does not apply, there's more variables in play. Too bad.

About impact. I looked at the numbers for the only week I could find multiple subdemos in y2y comparable weeks. Total viewers 11/13/2014 were down 1.4 millions compared to 11/14/2013. Out of which 740,000 viewers (400K female and 340K male) were in A18-34. Enormous percentage of Lost viewership being in demos that Grey's Anatomy is strong, is what made me believe Grey's is main reason for TBBT y2y drop.
I choose to trust in numbers here, and not in your feeling. You may choose to trust your feeling, there's nothing wrong it.

Spot said...

Yes. I always exclude sports, saturdays and sunday 7pm from all numbers. Repeats are however included to make sure networks with more originals receive credit.

Spot said...

Yes. I always exclude sports, saturdays and sunday 7pm from all numbers. Repeats are however included to make sure networks with more originals receive credit. .

Spot said...

Not of all of them will switch back to TBBT, That would be foolish to say, and that's not what I said ( I said 4 to 5 tenths up in December episodes, if there will be originals during December at all).

And, anyway, what to do you expect Grey's viewers will devote their Thursday evenings during 2 months show's on hiatus? To eradicating hunger and poverty across the world? Or to watching other TV shows?

Spot said...

Adjustments are in:
- TBBT up to 4.1, still an ugly 23% y2y drop.
- Mom down to 2.5, only 61% retention but still its best.
- NBC back to Earth: TBL got a 1.0/1.1 (broken by half hours in the finals), Bad Judge back to 0.9, A to Z to 0.7 and Parenthood to 1.3
- Reign adjusted down to 0.3!!!! Which leads me to make two questions:

1) Which show gets moved to friday to make room for iZombie (considering The Messengers as the replacement for The 100), Reign or Jane the Virgin?
2) Could CW also move Supernatural to either mondays or thursdays (replacing the friday-bound show) to air iZombie after Flash?



Of course, unlike Silvo, I'm using A18-49 here, not W18-34, ratings from that demo would help a lot to know who is The CW's weakest link among those two (The 100 is airing just 16 episodes so it's going to be replaced anyway).

Spot said...

Frankly, I think we can expect Murder to come back to crazy levels in January. The show produced what was, in my humble opinion of someone who watches a lot of TV, one of the best episodes from a drama I've ever seen and most likely the best one I've come across this fall. The hype surrounding its ending and the positive reaction to this episode is reaching new levels everywhere I look.

Spot said...

I don't thin the decision will be very telling either way. They may move Reign there, yes, but that would probably be because they would want it there next season anyway. I am not saying categorically that Reign gets renewed but I am saying that I really, in any world, can conceive a scenario in which Reign gets cancelled and Jane is renewed, baring a major ratings difference in the spring.

Spot said...

In the "Huh? WTF?" column, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt has moved from NBC to Netflix and has been given a two season commitment.

Spot said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYCJnTbmztk

Spot said...

One more step to an all-drama scripted lineup for NBC!

Spot said...

LOL my god. Then what will NBC renew this year? One Big Happy only has very short order, so unless they are very high on Mr. Robinson maybe they will have to try harder to make About a Boy work!

Spot said...

I thought this was NBC's best bet for a post voice slot in the spring. Now I think schedule will be:
Marry Me burnoff | About a Boy during the voice hiatus
Mr. Robison | About a Boy post voice return
Mr. Robison | One Big Happy late spring


Parks has to double pump somewhere

Spot said...

So now NBC's comedy bench is 12 episodes from two newbies and Parks and Recreation?


:Evil laugh directed towards them for cancellng Community:


I hope they are going full drama like I've defended, but what is going to air on thursdays after The Biggest Loser ends?

Spot said...

That's great for Kimmy. Last new comedy on NBC that reached 3rd season was Community. So long ago. Only around 10% of their recent comedies was renewed for 2nd season, and those were mostly face saving renewals (Whitney, About a Boy...)
Now Kimmy got 26+ episodes on Netflix. Probably 39+. Great,

NBC? Who cares for those idiots? I mean, network brass, not all the people working there.

Spot said...

The prophecy written by the mighty brony/ratings buff/box office buff hath come true.

Spot said...

For what it's worth, I think it's bizarre, but I'm not totally surprised by this news. I've always had the nagging feeling that NBC wasn't committed to the show but felt obligated to order it.

And I think it's a really dumb move. It feels like they're doubling down on their commitment to 'broad' comedies which are flatlining. This seems like a marketable show and, say what you like about Fey and Carlock, but know how to write jokes, plus Ellie Kemper certainly seems like a sitcom lead.

Spot said...

Netflix is going to air 7 seasons, a movie and increase Tina Fey's Emmy count to 16 to place her as the GOAT female comedian.

Spot said...

Today Reign was 0.5 in finals, adjusted down from 0.6 W18-34 preliminary. So probably something like 0.54. Season averages are now:
Jane 0.61 W18-34 / Reign 0.54 W18-34 / The 100 0.53 A18-49.

Jane is same as usual: lot of bad news, but two most important news are good:
1. The 100 is doing no better than Reign.
2. Jane is doing better than Reign, but probably not enough better to overcome 22 episodes deficit.

Spot said...

Unconfirmed but it appears that ABC is planning on pair FOTB with The Taste on Thursdays.

http://www.spoilertv.com/2014/11/fresh-off-boat-new-promo-fotb.html

Spot said...

...Backstrom is airing at 9, Kimmy Schmidt is on Netflix, and Fresh Off the Boat will be on Thursdays? What the hell is happening? Somebody hold me. I'm scared.

Spot said...

CBS has issued a press release talking about a Big Bang episode on December the 11th which apparently is Christmas themed.

http://www.spoilertv.com/2014/11/cbs-celebrates-holidays-with-very-merry.html

They are also forcing everything to air up until very late.

Spot said...

It will air on December the 11th. I think CBS is changing their minds all the time this season regarding comedy schedule!

Spot said...

But Mr. Robinson has a 6-episode order. Futon Critic hasn't specified OBH's order, but I've checked SpoilerTV, and that's 6 episodes. So...Odyssey on Tuesday? NPH show? Undateable?

Spot said...

I really thin you ought to start using M18-34 to do the power rankings of Arrow, Flash and The 100. It doesn't make sense that you benefit the female shows but not the male ones.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Reasoning: Selfie / Manhattan Love Story / Cristela all get the nod over Fresh off the Boat. FFS, ABC have preferred even Modern Family over those . And except for Cristela, all those quickly dropped bellow 1.0. On top of that, this scheduling screams burn off.

Spot said...

Unless they extend those orders to 13, I don't see anything fitting.


Not to mention they can't burn Parks on thursdays, it would need just 7 weeks, unless they decide it should air on fridays at 8 for a while.

Spot said...

Yeah I've learned since then. I am at a loss then as to what will air Tuesdays at 9.

Spot said...

Keep in mind this isn't confirmed. I don't want to start a false rumor. It's just that the promo highly hints at that in my opinion.

Spot said...

I think ABC was waiting to see if they had any free space in their Wednesday family comedy block before scheduling the show. They don't, so it's inevitably going to land in a bad timeslot.

Spot said...

And Wayward Pines is moved to summer. Or worse,
Pool of broadcast midseason shows I wanted to watch (or at least, to sample it) is gets thinner every day.

Spot said...

I'm going to start the campagn "We Want Parks" for Parks & Rec to air after The Voice.


Do it NBC, embarass all comedies you've canceled over the last 4 years.

Spot said...

Are they going to air it at 10 PM? Didn't they learn from NBC in 2010-11 or from the Apt. 23/Happy Endings short experience? Unless it's a quick burnoff, of course, since it's the only benched comedy from them.

Spot said...

Well, I have plenty of time to change my vote.
Which I won't. Because this not confirmed scheduling is just icing on the cake. I consider FOTB dead from the day ABC replaced MLS with MF repeats.

Spot said...

Only Arrow (1.07 in M18-34 with 0.94 A18-49) would benefit from it.
After strong start, The 100 and Flash cooled off in M18-34,
The 100 - 0.50 M18-34 (0.53 A18-49)
The Flash - 1.52 M18-34 (1.54 A18-49)

Spot said...

All comedies (except TBBT) + Elementary premiered very late. So, at least for Monday and Thursday, they need to minimize repeats.

Spot said...

Are you implying that Fresh Boat would have had a chance if it followed Selfie?

Spot said...

No.
I'm implying ABC brass considered Manhattan Love Story had better chances than FotB in Tue 8:30 PM slot. And MLS dropped all the way to 0.7 before it was pulled... so go figure how strong they see Fot.

Spot said...

As much as it pains me to even say this, CBS should give Two and A Half Men as many final seasons it can muster at 2.0 and above. I bet it would perform as well as Mom and perhaps even better behind TBBT, not that CBS should or would ever do that again. Replace Kutcher if he wouldn't agree to an acceptable salary to make financial sense to keep the series going. "Winning" Charlie Sheen was not irreplaceable and 1/2 man Angus is now an afterthought. It mystifies me why this show still attracts viewers but CBS could and does do a lot worse with their new sitcoms. I think The Odd Couple will fail badly, too.

Spot said...

I do agree. Grey's Anatomy is doing about the same numbers against Thursday Night Football compared to being against The Big Bang Theory.

Spot said...

No, they gave 24 episodes to all 4 Wednesday comedies on 10/23/2014 (and cancelled Manhattan Love Story day later),

In other words, it is already 30 days ago since ABC decided they will not air FotB on Wednesday.

Spot said...

Interesting. Many critics had hailed it as one of the best network sitcoms of the season. I think ABC has mostly soured on the idea of placing comedies with SHIELD at this point but if FOTB is paired with placeholder, The Taste, it would indeed be doomed. I think ABC would at least give this sitcom a little better shot at success than being paired with The Taste in light of their big diversity push by Paul Lee.

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

You ARE implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the post-Selfie slot

Spot said...

Are you implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the slot after Selfie?



You're not spelling it out, so I have to keep guessing what you mean.

Spot said...

Are you implying that ABC should have given Fresh Boat the slot after Selfie?



You're not spelling it out, so I have to keep guessing what you mean.

Spot said...

No, they gave 24 episodes to all 4 Wednesday comedies on 10/23/2014 (and cancelled Manhattan Love Story day later), There is no room since that day already.

In other words, it is already 30 days ago since ABC decided they will not air FotB on Wednesday, or do any other change of Wednesday 8-10 PM schedule during this season.

Spot said...

I do think ABC is having quite a good fall relative to other networks. They are doing well on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays, and while it started off 4th place on Mondays, it's now at a distant 2nd place due to FOX and CBS declining on Mondays. They just need to fix Tuesdays and Sundays now.

Spot said...

Okay, I might have an idea. It's strange, it's idiotic, you might call me crazy. But it's the best I've got.

All of the Thursday shows currently on end on January 29th going by episode counts and fall finales.

With that in mind, we have Blacklist and Allegiance filling the bottom hours of Thursday, but what about 8PM? Well, and it pains me to say it, a double-pump of Parks starting Feb 5th. It fills a timeslot, and hopefully Blacklist won't be affected by a lackluster lead-in, like Grey's was for the past 8 or so years. With the 13 episodes gone mid-March, the 19th to be more precise, next week will be the 6-ep wonders. They both air non-stop and end in April, and that slot can be filled with HGN, Last Comic Standing, or other summer filler. Blacklist and Allegiance last until May with a couple repeats sprinkled in. Now will either be renewed? If NBC still wants to get into the comedy game somehow, the one that doesn't look as bad will inch out alive.

For Tuesday, Marry Me and About A Boy air in burn-off mode, with some leftover episodes either airing in the summer or online-only. Then when Voice premieres early March or late February, put in a drama. Which one? Probably Odyssey? It fits the "conspiracy espionage/FBI" thing that Blacklist has done great with, so it seems the closest bet. Aquarius fills in for either Fridays after Constantine's death, or goes to Sunday with Slap and/or AD.

But that's the best I've got.

Spot said...

Okay, I might have an idea. It's strange, it's idiotic, you might call me crazy. But it's the best I've got.

All of the Thursday shows currently on end on January 29th going by episode counts and fall finales.

With that in mind, we have Blacklist and Allegiance filling the bottom hours of Thursday, but what about 8PM? Well, and it pains me to say it, a double-pump of Parks starting Feb 5th. It fills a timeslot, and hopefully Blacklist won't be affected by a lackluster lead-in, like Grey's was for the past 8 or so years. With the 13 episodes gone mid-March, the 19th to be more precise, next week will be the 6-ep wonders. They both air non-stop and end in April, and that slot can be filled with HGN, Last Comic Standing, or other summer filler. Blacklist and Allegiance last until May with a couple repeats sprinkled in. Now will either be renewed? If NBC still wants to get into the comedy game somehow, the one that doesn't look as bad will inch out alive.

For Tuesday, Marry Me and About A Boy air in burn-off mode, with some leftover episodes either airing in the summer or online-only. Then when Voice premieres early March or late February, put in a drama. Which one? Probably Odyssey? It fits the "conspiracy espionage/FBI" thing that Blacklist has done great with, so it seems the closest bet. Aquarius fills in for either Fridays after Constantine's death, or goes to Sunday with Slap and/or AD.

But that's the best I've got.

Spot said...

Disqus was going through some Glitch issue. Comments were being saved, but they were posted by themselves later on. I suffered the same thing down below.

Spot said...

Yes, maybe I was ambiguous, unintentionally.
I simply wanted to say they had a chance to premiere FotB in September, instead of some other newbie. Yet they didn't.
And with both Tuesday comedies flopping, they had a chance to slot it somewhere in October. Yet they didn't.

Spot said...

I was talking back in May when ABC made their fall schedule and decided to push FOBT to mid-season. As soon as Black-ish and The Goldbergs both succeeded, it was inevitable that the show was going to end up in a poor timeslot.

Spot said...

Yes, you're completely right here. I misunderstood your previous comment. Sorry.
It remains fact that out of 5 new comedies, Fresh of the Boat was the one on the bench. It hints they had the least trust in it,

Spot said...

It seems likely.


Leftover comedies vs new drama supposed to be DOA, which one would to better to as Blacklist lead-in?


Also, can they come with something new on mondays after The Voice? Wikipedia (using the futon critic) says that State of Affairs comes back in january 5th after 6 fall episodes and airs nonstop until february 16th, The Voice is probably going to premiere a week after.


So, comedies on thursdays, Allegiance too but at 10 PM, Aquarius after Voice on mondays, Odyssey on tuesdays and Hannibal on fridays?

Spot said...

I'm thinking the Neil Patrick Harris show will be ready to lead off Thursday Nights at 8pm. It should provide a decent lead in for the Blacklist.

The comedies can all be burned off on Friday or Saturday if need be. NBC needs to start over with comedies next year anyway.

Spot said...

Well, that depends. I've seen people tossing around State of Affairs, if picked up for a full season will only go up to 18, as well as 15 or staying at 13, since Katherine Heigl has a movie career with some anticipated classics like The Nut Job 2 on the horizon. So, if it's just 13, Aquarius premieres a week or two later with Voice. 15 or 18, maybe it airs with Voice all season a la Revolution Season 1, with Aquarius with Celebrity Apprentice. Keep in mind that Futon Critic isn't 100% reliable, since A to Z and Bad Judge have fall finales on December 11 going by this here (http://www.spoilertv.com/2014/11/nbc-fall-finale-dates-various-shows.html) and Futon Critic says they will air episodes on the 18th.

But what about Sunday? The only thing I have is repeats, specials, and movies like NBC did January and February pre-Olympics, and the SNL 40th will be on Feb 15th anyway. Easter Sunday is two hours of AD with The Slap at 10PM. With AD being for 6 weeks, and Slap being 7-8, depending on whether there's a two-hour finale.



I think I have something here.

Spot said...

Greenblatt said drama-heavy. It means drama at Thursday 8 PM, or at Tuesday 9 Pm (The Voice at 8 PM). Plus, I'd say, back order for State of Affairs. If Smash could get renewal, then everything's possible in NBC-land.

Maybe this?
Mon Jan/Feb - Apprentice / SofA
Mon March - Voice / SofA

Tue Jan/Feb -Parks x 2 / Robinson / OBH / Chicago Fire
Tue March - Marry Me / AaB / Voice / Chicago Fire

Thu Feb - Odyssey / Blacklist / Allegiance

Fri Jan/Feb - 2-hours Dateline / Grimm
Fri March - Dateline / Grimm / Hannibal

Sun Feb/Mar - Dateline / HGN / Slap / Aquarius
Sun April . Dateline / 2- hours A.D. / Aquarius

Spot said...

Hmm...
there's a lot of things I really like here. Voice behind Chicago Fire is so obvious, yet I completely forgot about it. Voice not being wasted on Tuesdays is nice. Thursday looks glorious as well. Three compatible shows back-to-back-to-back with Spader in the middle. Friday seems pretty good too. Nothing special, but nice nonetheless.

But, there are some issues here. For Sunday, if the Feb/Mar schedule is after the SNL 40th special, it would only last for sox weeks, so unless NBC doubles up Slap twice, the miniseries won't end by that time. But the AD schedule is pretty good. Lastly, for Mondays, you seem to have forgotten one thing: the limited order. All the way back in the upfronts, Joe Adalian tweeted this: https://twitter.com/TVMoJoe/status/465903908569612288
Now, this was from back in May, and things can change, but it is something to keep note of.

Aside from that, pretty good job.

Spot said...

But what limited means here? If it's 18 episodes, they can air some repeats of SofA. Or few specials at 10 PM, and there you have it.

While if it means max 15, then I agree, some other drama to premiere at Mon 10 PM later. Them I think it's The Slap. Because other sramas have 13 episodes, thus would have to run into summer. The Slap has 8 episodes, I think,

Spot said...

Add to that "Members Only". Though I doubt you were craving to see it.

Anyway, I went to ABC site to see what it says about Fresh of the Boat. It says nothing, but I noticed Members Only disappeared from list of their shows. While, for example, The Whispers, and The Astronaut Wives Club are there, filed under "coming soon".

Spot said...

I actually kept forgetting Members Only was a thing actually. Everytime it was brought up here, I was like "Oh, yeah" :P

Spot said...

They should absolutely move to full drama/reality, because I can't think of one realistic comedy they can justify renewing after this season. Maybe pick up two comedies from development so they can look like they're trying. Thursdays are about to become a hilarious mess. Moving the Blacklist looks worse and worse.

Spot said...

I thought the episode was fantastic too! I was blown away when AV Club gave it a C+

Spot said...

Hey now, Members only has (had?) Natalie Zea.
She was good in Justified. And in The Following... she just was.

Spot said...

The episode was to die for. That ending alone had me gasping for air and pleading for mercy.

Spot said...

I don't think 10 PM is the worst place in the world for a comedy. Especially Thursday at 10 has only Elementary and Parenthood as competition. Compared to self starting Tuesdays at 8 against The Voice and NCIS. Now, 10:30 is a differenent story entirely. No chance for a sitcom there. Big drop in viewing levels and big increase to watching DVR's. That's why ABC has a Modern Family repeat as regularly scheduled when they did a 10 PM block.

Spot said...

Me too. It was crazy.

Spot said...

That Murder finale was up there with Scandal's craziest moments. Freaking heaven.

Spot said...

Agreed. My jaw was on the floor after it ended.

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