Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/10/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC's shows each shed a tenth due to the pre-emption, but that was it for adjustments. The CW's upticks held.
  • It wasn't a pretty opening to week eight on the big four, with the majority of series either hitting or tying season lows. Most of the new lows came on CBS with disheartening declines for 2 Broke Girls (1.9), The Millers (1.5) and Scorpion (2.0), while Fox's dramas Gotham (2.2) and Sleepy Hollow (1.5) were among the series to tie their lows. NBC's The Voice (3.2) took a hit the week before State of Affairs' arrival.
  • The only big four series to avoid season lows were ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.1) and Castle (1.7), both of which may adjust down due to a Monday Night Football pre-emption, and the final Monday edition of The Blacklist (2.5), which still could adjust down to tie its low.
  • The only network eying some legit good news was the CW, where The Originals (0.7) and Jane the Virgin (0.5) swung up. They didn't have a Monday Night Football pre-emption, but I never know if there was something NBA-related...

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.0 19% +0%+0.0n/a 3/11 +18% +0% +16% 2.1
Castle 1.6 21% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/6 -20% +33% -18% 1.8
ABC:+8%+4%
2 Broke Girls 1.9 32% -14%-0.3n/a 3/3 -30% -14% -39% 2.0
The Millers 1.5 29% -6%-0.1-0.3 4/4 -42% -6% -44% 1.5
Scorpion 2.0 25% -9%-0.2-0.1 8/8 n/a -9% -5% 2.1
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.5 23% +0%+0.0-0.2 6/7 -38% +0% +36% 1.7
CBS:-7%-15%
The Voice Mon 3.2 35% -9%-0.3n/a 8/8 -16% -9% -16% 3.1
The Blacklist 2.5 33% +4%+0.1-0.3 5/8 -17% +4% -15% 2.4
NBC:-5%-16%
Gotham 2.2 44% -8%-0.2n/a 7/8 n/a -8% +7% 2.2
Sleepy Hollow 1.5 41% +0%+0.0-0.2 7/8 -42% +0% -41% 1.5
Fox:-5%-20%
The Originals 0.7 61% +40%+0.2n/a 1/6 -36% +40% +75% 0.7
Jane the Virgin 0.5 52% +25%+0.1+0.2 2/5 n/a +25% +67% 0.5
CW:+33%+71%
Big5:-1%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

15 comments:

Spot said...

Castle already had a wedding last May and a cliffhanger from it for the premiere. I think the fake out prevented any actual interest in a real wedding. Also, not a watcher, but their promos were super confusing. Was it supposed to be an alternative reality episode or a wedding one?

Spot said...

This kinda hurts my theory in next season for 2 Broke Girls and Scorpion leading into new shows next fall. CBS needs to give Scorpion some sort of lead in support here. As Spot said it is "potentially elite". Don't waste the potential for the sake of the Millers

Spot said...

I thought the Blacklist was absolutely fantastic last night. They really tied up a lot of the running plots to set it up for a larger audience after the Super Bowl. There wasn't a ton of overrun, I hope it can hold this for finals

Spot said...

Both, actually.

Spot said...

Am I the only one that finds the Blacklist's numbers a little low? I expected more for the midseason finale.

Spot said...

It is. Last midseason finale was a 3.2 out of a 3.4 The Voice. The Blacklist is -22% y2y for midseason finale with its lead in not significantly down. It's actual finale last year was actually down from the week before, also against a Castle wedding.

Spot said...

This was not only series-low for Scorpion in A18-49, but also most old skewing episode (25.2%). I don't know what CBS will do with The Millers, but I do know they need to move it from where it is now.

Spot said...

It is a bit lower now for some reason. Personally I never have much interest in the show despite the brilliant acting of James Spader, maybe because I don't feel strongly with the characters. It's really the James Spader show, and the female lead for some reason is unimpressive, and everyone else seems very bureaucratic and impersonal, particularly the FBI agents which are just rambling off details of the "operations" and "targets". I only kept up with it last year due to the fact that it is better than most new shows, and the cases seem better than the typical CBS procedural, but I can't stick with it for a second season running. (Maybe that's the reason why most shows decline season-to-season. It is just hard keeping up with a single show for years).

Spot said...

In the most obvious move of the season: Mulaney swaps slots with Bob's Burgers.

Mulaney was not pulled of schedule only because Bordertown has only 13 episodes, which are probably not ready yet.
It will be interesting to see if next Mulaney episode (11/23) rates lower than American Dad on TBS.

Spot said...

Is it too soon to start guessing how the super bowl episode of The Blacklist will do? I'm thinking 30 million unless it starts past 10:30.

Spot said...

Could Bob's potentially do WORSE than it's last 1.5 on November 23rd? Family Guy only did a 1.8 last week on a football night. November 23rd has no football and Bob's will have to face Walking Dead for the first time

Spot said...

From Wikipedia, the last post-Superbowl SCRIPTED show that have over 30 million viewers was Grey's Anatomy in 2006, House came close in 2008 with 29 million viewers. If you notice the scripted shows that hit over 30 million probably have some kind of huge audience already, Grey's Anatomy had 18.44 million viewers for the episode before the Superbowl. Of course Grey's Anatomy had the abnormal benefit because at that time it was airing at Sundays at 10/9c, so the post Superbowl slot was pretty much the same time slot as it's normal slot, so that must have helped. House itself had about 22 million before the Superbowl episode which got 29 million.
Of course, there is still a chance that The Blacklist can hit 30 million, but historical trend is against it. For scripted shows especially dramas, shows that are watched less regularly (pretty much every show now compared to back when Grey's or House had loads of viewers) normally do less well for post-Superbowl episodes. I'm going to guess around Glee levels - 26 million. In fact I think the only scripted show that may get more than 30 million now after a Superbowl is The Walking Dead.

Spot said...

Blacklist episode quality is closely related to Spader's screen time.

The cast is very week, Megan Boone is an awful female lead

Spot said...

Even if Bob's does worse than its 1.5, which could be a possibility since Fox will be sans football and has to face both The Walking Dead and the American Music Awards on ABC, it'll still do better than anything Mulaney has done post-Guy. I still think that part of the reason Family Guy hit a new post-revival low is because of the abnormal breaks it's taken so far this season.

Spot said...

Well, I think part of that too is the "lame leadout theory". I'm sure there were Bob's Burgers/American Dad! fans that stayed to watch Family Guy last year. No one is watching Family Guy to get to Mulaney

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