Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/17/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC wasn't damaged too badly in finals and ended up with a pretty stellar night, especially for Dancing with the Stars (2.3), which shot to 0.3 above the level it's maintained pretty much since the start of the regular season. The Voice (3.1) and Sleepy Hollow (1.6) each went up a tenth.
  • While not a disaster, it was not a great start for NBC's State of Affairs (2.2), which went a couple tenths below the lowest number NBC has ever seen from The Blacklist with a The Voice lead-in. The Blacklist comparisons aren't particularly apt in terms of gauging renewal prospects, since that show is well above the renewal line. But at this starting level, it would be fortunate to settle at what Chicago Fire gets leading out of the Tuesday comedy block, so there doesn't seem to be much potential for an upper-tier performer here. It is worth noting that the show didn't get a lot of help from The Voice (3.0), down again to tie its lowest performance show rating ever.
  • The absence of The Blacklist seemed to help NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7) on CBS. It may have helped Castle too (2.0), though its current number is inflated by Monday Night Football pre-emptions. Most other shows were pretty steady week-to-week, with 2 Broke Girls (2.1) rebounding a bit and Jane the Virgin (0.4) giving back last week's uptick.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.3 20% +15%+0.3n/a 2/12 +15% +15% +16% 2.2
Castle 1.8 24% +13%+0.2+0.3 4/7 -5% +13% -5% 1.8
ABC:+14%+9%
2 Broke Girls 2.1 34% +11%+0.2n/a 3/4 -22% +11% -32% 2.1
The Millers 1.5 30% +0%+0.0+0.2 4/5 -46% +0% -44% 1.4
Scorpion 2.0 25% +0%+0.0+0.0 8/9 n/a +0% -5% 2.0
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.7 24% +13%+0.2+0.0 2/8 -32% +13% +70% 1.7
CBS:+6%-8%
The Voice Mon 3.1 35% -3%-0.1n/a 9/9 -11% -3% +4% 2.9
State of Affairs 2.2 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -12% -34% 2.0
NBC:-6%-10%
Gotham 2.3 45% +5%+0.1n/a 6/9 n/a +5% +2% 2.2
Sleepy Hollow 1.6 43% +7%+0.1+0.1 6/9 -36% +7% -36% 1.5
Fox:+5%-18%
The Originals 0.7 62% +0%+0.0n/a 1/7 n/a +0% +75% 0.7
Jane the Virgin 0.4 47% -20%-0.1+0.0 4/6 n/a -20% +33% 0.4
CW:-8%+57%
Big5:+3%-5%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

47 comments:

Spot said...

Smash of Affairs

NBC strikes again, it's going to lose at the 10 pm hour in two weeks

Spot said...

State of Affairs isn't DOA. But that's only because Laura is at sub-Revolution level (and Constantine is at sub-Dracula level, ouch). I see this 2.2 as bad, because SoA is bound to drop some in next weeks, then some more in January when
it will air behind Apprentice (I assume it won't go to a lengthy hiatus
after only 4 or 5 episodes). I can definitely see it dropping to Laura level in True before January ends, and, in the worst case, in raw numbers too.

I think the best SoA can hope is face saving renewal. It should be SoA vs Laura vs midseason dramas for 1 renewal (maybe 2 if expensive SVU would be cancelled). And for midseason entry it probably would suffice to repeat middling performance by Chicago PD from last season (A 18-49+ of 88).

Spot said...

For whatever it is worth, in terms of retention, State of Affairs didn't do that badly:
- Revolution: 4.1 out of 5.1 - 80% retention
- State of Affairs: 2.2 out of 3.0 - 73% retention
- The Blacklist: 3.8 out of 5.6 - 68% retention
- Believe: 2.7 out of 4.2 - 64% retention
- Smash: 3.8 out of 7.7 - 49% retention



Elsewhere, I think CBS had a legitimate very good night. 2 Broke Girls is back up, Scorpion held up in what should be its worst situation the entire season (lead-in will improve and competition will vanish for a while giving it a chance to gather momentum), and LA shot back up considerably, with great retention out of Scorpion.


Another very solid winner last night was The Originals.

Spot said...

Unless this is a one off blip, I think this number puts NCIS: LA at the front of the CBS bubble. Especially considering it did 4 tenths better than last Tuesday's Person of Interest in almost the exact same circumstances. A 2.0 lead in from a procedural as well as a Voice boosted drama getting a 2.2 against it.

Spot said...

The half-hour is surprisingly positive for State of Affairs though. It only fell 0.2 which is the standard 10pm decline for a regular show, let alone a series premiere airing out of a much higher rated show.

Spot said...

The Voice probably did much better in the 9:30 half hour than a 3.0. I know it was a 5.1 for the whole night, 5.6 at 9:30 for the Blacklist and a 6.7 for the whole night, a 7.7 at 9:30 for Smash. So I think SOA will probably end up lower than the Blacklist

Spot said...

No, according to preliminary numbers from TV Media Insights, it did a 3.0 in the 9h30 half hour.

Spot said...

The Millers sudden cancellation is showing me how quickly CBS is now doing a complete 360 on shows that disappoint them. The Millers went from keeping its cushy Big Bang Theory lead in at the upfront, to a jerk around to Mondays following 2 Broke Girls, to the cancellation of a veteran midseason. I think Medium was the last veteran show to have its order cut like that.
.
Same thing goes for CSI. It went 14 years with every season doing better than the league average. They move it to the sucky 10 PM on Sunday slot in favor of The Good Wife, which has never even seen a league average season. Then when it drops predictably just like CSI: Miami and The Mentalist, it has its order cut!
.
It just seems so crazy because CBS is so known for protecting their veterans, many times at the expense of new shows. Their sudden turning on shows makes me think there is a chance that Elementary could be done this year. Like if it is drops to a .8 (which is possible).

Spot said...

I feel pretty good about going Under right now since it's more likely that The Voice gets an uptick than State of Affairs getting two-tenths (and could actually downtick instead).

Meanwhile, both NCIS: LA and Castle benefited, even though the latter's preliminary 2.0 is obviously inflated by MNF. They may gain some more ground next week once the State of Affairs premiere hype dies down (and Castle gets a stronger lead-in from the first part of the Dancing with the Stars finale).

The Originals is picking up some steam, getting to parity with The Vampire Diaries. That's more of a compliment to the former than an insult to the latter since The CW hasn't had a show this strong in Plus since 2010-2011.

I'll share my CBS trivia later in a separate comment when I have access to my spreadsheet.

Spot said...

That's crazy! I've never seen The Voice not grow. I'm very much a rententionist, so I must say State of Affairs looks better now. Do you know what it's half hours were?

Spot said...

2.3/2.1. I find them very positive.

Usually shows drop around this, if not more at 10pm. And when airing out of big lead-ins that's even greater. The Blacklist used to loose 0.5 or so.

Spot said...

Yeah, that's good. I mean even Revolution's half hours were a 4.4 and 3.8 (it was actually a 4.7, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8 in 15's). That's positive. Anyways, it's scary for the Voice to hit a 3.0 so soon. It is the only non sports program left on TV to have never gone below a 3.0 ever

Spot said...

I think what doomed the millers and caused it to be pulled so quickly was how easy Mike and Molly was to be brought back and help the entire night.
- 2 Broke Girls should benefit from a pairing with a comedy that people want to watch instead of forcing people to just watch it for half an hour and then catch a show in the middle of it.
- Obviously, the 8h30 slot is poised for the biggest benefit!
- Scorpion obviously should benefit from having a competent lead-in.
- LA could even benefit a bit from Scorpion benefiting.

It's a house of cards effect. They could have pulled McCarthys and placed MM there, sure, but then what do you get? Maybe some benefit to Men in the same vein as 2BG will get (though I would argue there is less compatibility there, but still), and maybe a couple of tents for Elementary, which is clearly a dead syndication farm walking anyway.

Spot said...

I think NBC needs to find a way to rest the voice. I used to love the show but I am not watching this season, I needed a break. Whatever happened to that Space Race program that was rumored to be developed by NBC as a potential replacement for one of the cycles?

Spot said...

I think NCIS: LA is ahead of most CBS bubble dramas just based on the behind the scenes stuff: CBS can make more money out of that show than other CBS-produced dramas (Blue Bloods, The Good Wife) and non-CBS-made shows (Person of Interest) by wrapping new episodes into its syndication deal with USA Network. Other shows have a longer way to go to that threshold (Madam Secretary, Stalker) or are so expensive that adding more episodes isn't significant enough to delay selling the show into second-round syndication (CSI).

The only one I can't figure out is Hawaii Five-O. If the 25 episode order for this season is true, then maybe CBS is squeezing out a few more episodes now to wrap it up; it's expensive to film in Hawaii and I don't know if the show is getting any tax rebates from the state. But having a stable Friday night to focus on other priorities has some value.

Spot said...

http://deadline.com/2014/10/virgin-galactic-crash-kills-pilot-mark-burnett-reality-series-richard-branson-nbc-1201268921/

Spot said...

Oh I agree with you entirely in your main assessment, sorry I didn't point that out. I was just making an additional commentary, not disagreeing. I think your assessment is fair about its chances of coming back.

This being said, I wouldn't put it behind NBC to not bring TBL back in the fall next year.So I think it's possible they renew one midseason drama + one fall drama:
- They have 15 hours to program in the fall.
- Certain things: The Voice (x3), Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, SVU, Grimm, The Blacklist, Dateline = 9
- They won't premiere 6 new hours of programming next fall. I think 4 or even 3 is more likely, so that would mean we could see State of Affairs and say, Allegiance, come back.

I am not saying it will happen, just that there is room probably.

Spot said...

Here are two things in play. First thing, moving The Millers from Monday, was obvious. To quote myself from 7 days ago (about airing at 11/11) ; "This was not only series-low for Scorpion in A18-49, but also most old
skewing episode (25.2%). I don't know what CBS will do with The Millers,
but I do know they need to move it from where it is now."

Just few days later came expected decision. However, what was not expected at all, was draconian measure of cancelling The Millers. There might be something more into it. Maybe some differences between network and studio about show's direction. First thing that comes to mind is including Sean Heyes into show. I mean, that is was changed recently. Perhaps network was against it? Unwillingly agreed to it, but informed authors they will take some measures if that wouldn't work?

Spot said...

Didn't know that, thanks!

Spot said...

What I think would be an interesting battle (one I wouldn't want since I like both shows and I don't even watch that much on CBS, so it would be unfortunate for me) would be between H50 and POI. Conventional wisdom says that H50 is in danger and POI isn't, with one of the main arguments being that it's been ages since CBS has cancelled a veteran drama airing on a weeknight (Without a Trace the last one).

But:
- H50 is from CBS and POI isn't
- H50 only has one more season than POI
- H50 is the bird on one-hand, is already on Fridays (where I suspect POI would go if H50 is cancelled)
- POI's most recent 1.3 on Tuesday is worse than any rating posted by H50 on Fridays this season (considering a friday adjustment, that is). If that wasn't a severe outlier, then H50 would also have the better ratings.

So why would they cancel H50 and keep POI? WB can offer the show practically for free just to get it to 100 episodes sure, but it's starting to feel icky for some reason to me.

Spot said...

NBC: "Is it February yet?"
Heigl: "So Shonda, about that Grey's show..."
Silvio: "I told you so."

Spot said...

No, I didn't say zero renewals. I said:
"SoA vs Laura vs midseason dramas for 1 renewal (maybe 2 if expensive SVU would be cancelled)."
Than that's 4.5 to 5 hours of new programming = 3 or 4 comedies, 3 dramas. And only 3.5 to 4 hours if they de ecide to havThe Biggest Loser at Thursday 8 PM, .

Spot said...

Ah got you then.

Spot said...

No, I was against stupid NBC scheduling in general.
Others pointed strange scheduling State of Affairs, I just embraced it as yet anotehr proof of Greenblatt's incompetence.

Spot said...

Oddly enough, The Voice grew two tenths only to lose one tenth and remain the same across the hour. Crazy.

Spot said...

The decent to good retention after Voice makes holding it off look worse to me.

Spot said...

NBC is simply not in a place where they can rest the Voice. They have more depth now than when it first premiered, but it takes up 3 hours of their schedule and Sunday Night Football already makes them redo 4 hours on Sunday every spring. That's 7 hours to fill and you can only air so much Dateline

Spot said...

They can do it the other way around and let the voice rest in the fall and have it come back in the Spring.

I agree that they are not there yet but I think next year is probably the last time they should do it. At least try it one year to see if it slows down the decline or not.

Spot said...

Of course. I know that, but SoA was a puzzle piece to your argument, so you still have more bragging rights. :3

Spot said...

What hurts them the most is their second tier reality shows collapsed. The Biggest Loser a great run in Winter of 2013, but has dropped big in the last two cycles. The Apprentice looked to be on death's row last time we saw it. Solid filler options like Fear Factor and Off Their Rockers ended up being basically burned off. We also know that stuff like The Sing Off can't hold its own for any extended period of time. It would be interesting is they pushed this summer's American Ninja Warrior to fall to rest the Voice. It's like the only reality show on TV that was trending up last year, but I could see it getting lost in the shuffle for the regular season

Spot said...

Okay, I put a lot of work into trying to put this into perspective, but it will probably all be wash by the time finals come out. Here we go. I'm adding some stats about each of the premieres. Here are how the numbers go. The first is its Plus average for the premiere, second is the Plus average of the final hour of the Voice leading in, third is the Plus sum of the competition, and the final one is where it started on the renew/cancel index (or where I project it will).
Here we go:
.
Smash: 160, 325, 198, 2.25
.
Revolution: 194, 242, 114, 1.73
.
The Blacklist: 202, 298, 213, 1.65
.
Believe: 144, 224, 271*, 1.48
.
State of Affairs: 129, 177, 218, 1.45
.
*Believe aired against the highly rated Bachelor: After the Rose ceremony.

Spot said...

called it

Spot said...

I really thought that Person of Interest would move to Sundays at 10:00 a la The Mentalist (veteran, non-CBS-owned drama that's to take the brunt of sports overruns to spare other shows that fate). But now that Elementary looks incredibly shaky, CBS may have to punt that show to Sundays in that role just to get its episode order up to fulfill that syndication deal. As perverse as it sounds, unless CBS decides to burn a 4th season of Elementary on Saturdays Person of Interest may be fighting that show for a timeslot.


One negative consideration that you didn't list, though, is the expense of Hawaii Five-0. Producing a show in Hawaii is very expensive and I don't know if the state's providing any tax rebates/credits a la Tennessee and ABC's Nashville. It may be why the current season has a reported 25 episode season this year. I still think the bean-counters can justify another season of Five-0 to juice the current syndication deal (as well as the one that will follow after TNT's deal expires), but you could read the super-sized episode order the other way: squeeze as many episodes out as possible now before contract negotiations come up and make the show too pricey to deal with.

Spot said...

Yes, I think POI could be looking at a Mentalist-style final season order, out of WB desperation to get up to 100 eps and CBS indifference. They will make more money off keeping Elementary alive and have a lot of dying shows to try and find replacements for (H50, Blue Bloods, Good Wife, CSI, NCIS LA) over the next couple of years.

Spot said...

I just saw Michael Ealy has joined The Following and felt a sudden sadness, realising I actually miss Almost Human quite a lot. That show feels unfinished and I liked it even though the episodes were confusingly aired out-of-order.

Spot said...

Pretty much straight on the head insofar as my predictions. An incredibly rare pleasure considering my runs this year.

Not sure how much The Voice would help in any circumstance. I never thought much of State of Affairs from the ads, and Heigl is incredibly controversial.

Spot said...

I think Gary Unmarried could have been a winner for CBS. They just left it on Wednesdays and never gave it a proper chance on Mondays. That cancellation was always a bummer to me.

Spot said...

So, what are the chances NCIS: Los Angeles wins the timeslot in the 18-49 demo at least once before the end of the season?

Spot said...

50%

Spot said...

I agree with you that the 25 episode thing could be looked at both ways. I tend to believe it's a positive and not a negative if only because the order came before the season started and as of last year, we all thought H50's move to Fridays was a big win and that the show was doing very well there, so I don't see why CBS would suddenly anticipate the show's collapse and prepare for it to end. Do you see what I mean?

Regarding how expensive it is, I am always wary of venturing in those topics because we really have no clue. But two things I have to say against it (and again, I don't know much about it so take it with a grain of salt):
1) Multiple sources have reported that H50 enjoys a tax benefit of 15-20% from the state of H50 (this is probably the most noteworthy, though it is from a year ago: http://variety.com/2013/film/features/hawaii-battles-for-film-production-with-incentives-1200570452/), while IMDB (hardly the most credible source of the world, but still) lists a number of episodes filmed with the assistance of Hawaii Production Tax Credits (http://www.imdb.com/company/co0255245/)

2) I watch the show so I can attest that the show does some of the most product placement adds I have ever seen, which is certainly to increase its revenues beyond ratings (this is one of those cases in which even DVR numbers would have value)


Where does that leave POI? I dunno. But unless it had a big recovery last night, I think I am ready to start considering it a bubble show. I know it sounds strange but assuming that MS/GW combo is kept and that Fridays at 8 are still reality, the only weekend time for POI would be Fridays at 9 and I really am struggling to find reasons for CBS to swap H50 for POI when the ratings improvement would probably be marginal.

Spot said...

I agree with your takeaways. Revolution premiered before the season so I understand the lower competition thing. Smash is just terrible regardless of how we look at it, but probably more terrible was the state of NBC that year.

Spot said...

I agree entirely with this assessment. I really thought they had turned it around with TBL in the winter of 2013 but now it's worse than ever.

Regarding Ninja Warrior, I am always warry of bringing something that's working well on the summer to the regular season and in this case I don't even think there is an extreme need for it. If they didn't bring Got Talent back to the regular season in the pre-voice years, I don't think they need to mess with Ninja Warrior right now either.

Spot said...

Come Winter, I will be surprised if it doesn't do is systematically. Castle is barely beating it now that it has the compatible DWTS lead-in and State of Affairs is only 0.5 higher for the premiere episode and with the voice lead-in. Come winter, castle will have to lead out of the always more incompatible (despite higher rated bachelor) and state of affairs will either be on hiatus or leading out of the apprentice.

Spot said...

I think The Millers was cancelled because it just seemed to be a show that cannot stand on its own. It was once boosted by The Big Bang Theory, but late last season and for the season 2 premiere, even The Big Bang Theory cannot help The Millers and The Millers quickly lose 50% of the lead-in, and now it is also hurting Scorpion.
And of course the fact that Mom is able to hit series high twice and perform better despite being in its second season behind The Big Bang Theory really showed that The Millers is the clear weak link.

Spot said...

It's clear that Gary Unmarried was the low sitcom on the priority totem pole; the combination of needing something to pair with Old Christine and half-owing the sitcom with ABC Studios are probably the reasons why it got a second season.


CBS clearly had bigger/younger sitcoms that they believed in at the time (The Big Bang Theory, How I Met Your Mother) and they still tried getting into the single-cam format with Worst Week. Gary should have thanked Worst Week for doing subpar numbers; had Worst succeeded Rules of Engagement would have replaced Gary on Wednesdays.

Spot said...

anybody know what is airing on nbc after the voice ends? Apprentice doesn't start until early January.

Spot said...

They really did give SOA a bad time slot, holiday programming, the apprentice won't help it. The show is good but with the amount of promotion that went into it I did think it would be higher.

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