Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/16/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (3.0) rose to tie last week's rating.
  • On a second straight Sunday with the NFL overrun, things went much better for Fox. Though The Simpsons (2.9) was only about even, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.2) and Family Guy (2.2) each took sizable upticks, and the installation of Bob's Burgers (1.7) at 9:30 nearly doubled last week's Mulaney rating.
  • ABC pre-empted Resurrection to air a two-hour edition of Once Upon a Time (2.4/2.3). Though Once's ratings were on the low end for this season, the better lead-in really seemed to help Revenge (1.5), which easily hit a season high.
  • On another without-overrun CBS night, Madam Secretary (1.5) pulled ahead of The Good Wife (1.3), while CSI (1.3) inched up from last week's low.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.6 30% +7%+0.1n/a 1/5 +14% +10% +19% 1.8
Once Upon a Time 2.4 45% -4%-0.1+0.1 7/8 +26% +32% +41% 2.3
Revenge 1.5 36% +15%+0.2+1.2 1/8 +0% +20% +76% 1.6
60 Minutes 1.7 17% +13%+0.2n/a 5/9 +0% +17% +0% 1.9
Madam Secretary 1.5 15% +7%+0.1+0.2 4/9 n/a +3% -25% 1.5
The Good Wife 1.3 16% -7%-0.1+0.1 7/9 -7% -7% -10% 1.3
CSI 1.3 20% +8%+0.1-0.1 4/6 -32% +4% -7% 1.6
Football Night in America p2 1.9 40% -17%-0.4n/a 5/11 -14% -17% -14% 2.1
Football Night in America p3 3.7 39% -10%-0.4-0.4 8/11 -21% -12% -21% 3.6
Sunday Night Football 7.1 43% +9%+0.6-0.4 8/12 -28% +2% -30% 6.4
NFL Overrun 8.4 40% +14%+1.0n/a 8/11 -5% +11% -13% 7.7
The OT 3.9 47% +3%+0.1+1.0 5/6 -26% +3% -26% 2.1
The Simpsons 3.0 57% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/7 +67% +0% -14% 2.3
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 2.2 62% +16%+0.3+0.0 3/7 +57% +16% -21% 1.8
Family Guy 2.2 63% +22%+0.4+0.3 3/5 +0% +22% +22% 1.8
Bob's Burgers 1.7 64% +13%+0.2+1.2 1/3 n/a +89% -23% 1.4

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Football overran on CBS by 15 minutes in a few east coast markets, including New York, so don't be surprised if it ends up adjusting down.

Spot said...

Some eye-opening random year to year trends from this week:
- ABC was up an hefty 10% year to year in raw numbers which will probably be a growth of ~20% in PLUS. And apart from the double OUAT, there wasn’t really an obvious artificial booster to this. That’s just crazy in my opinion.

- CBS, meanwhile, just had an horrific -24% week year to year! What is scarier is that the previous week it also had a 25% drop year to year. While there are some attenuating circumstances in both weeks (Tuesday preemption the week before for election, Friday preemption this week for the horribly rated awards), the fact that it’s close enough to get to this kind of drop is really something.

- After 7 straight weeks of negative year to year trends, NBC finally had a positive week, up 5% year to year, though it’s safe to say the enormous and sadly one-off Wednesday lineup, which was up 68%, is the main responsible for this.

- CBS is falling behind the 3-way race for the top with ABC and NBC virtually tied at 1.94 and CBS lagging a bit at 1.87. However, CBS is probably the network that will have the best Winter out of the three so this could change very easily.

(Note: All numbers exclude Sports, Saturdays and Sunday 7pm airings. Last night's numbers included are preliminary )

Spot said...

Anyone else think that Resurrection and Revenge should swap timeslots? Or would it essentially be a wash? I think Revenge wouldn't bleed as heavily out of Once Upon a Time and would have done better than Resurrection did with the Frozen/OUAT initial boost to start the season.

Was the SNF line-up a poor one? Or was Fox's late afternoon game stronger leading into primetime? I find it curious that 9-9 and Family Guy bumped up by multiple ticks, and since The Simpsons was roughly the same size lead-in the former is the only reason I can think of that happening. Or maybe the Bob's Burgers audience tuned in uber-early. :-D

Spot said...

For the next two episodes that we will have of this schedule I find it hard to make a case for the swap because although Revenge's ratings would benefit, I think Resurrection would lose more than Revenge would benefit, so ABC would be worse-off in theory. Of course I think that Revenge might still have some value as utility player for them next year whereas Resurrection is in all likelihood there, so that would still justify the short term loss to protect Revenge a bit more.

However, for the January episodes in which they will do Galavang-Resurrection-Revenge I think they should really swap the two, because I think Revenge will legitimately help Resurrection more than Resurrection will be able to help Revenge (sounds confusing lol, but it makes sense in my mind). The only problem is that Revenge will be back at 10pm by the spring so it feels like an extra move just for a very short time frame.

Spot said...

I'm a Chargers fan watching online from the UK and I got quite thrown when the "60 Minutes coming up next" banner came up in the fourth quarter. I genuinely wondered which East Coast markets would want to air a Raiders-Chargers game (as I did when we played them earlier in the season). I certainly wondered who would want to watch our game for huge chunks of it, seeing as it was a 13-6 borefest with the only touchdown coming on the third play from scrimmage...

That CBS lineup looks as all-around weak as the Raiders roster. ABC, meanwhile, continues to absolutely dominate the back half of the week. Good night for FOX for once too, especially considering the headline doubleheader game was a colossal blowout - to the point that FOX audibled to the Lions-Cardinals game at around 6:30 ET in many markets.

Spot said...

Eagles-Packers was the late afternoon game in almost every market in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, it was a colossal blowout (and FOX switched to the far closer Lions-Cardinals game at 6:30 ET in some markets).

SNF game was Patriots-Colts; I'd consider that a high-end matchup, but it wouldn't have had anything like the Nielsen impact of a Cowboys or Broncos game. (Both teams appeared in two SNF games last season, but one of those in each case was against the Broncos; the others came in below-average, and the Colts game was a tied SNF season low, albeit one largely attributable to playing a collapsing Texans in a game that would have been flexed out of SNF had this season's flex rules been in effect.)

Spot said...

Well it was both adding an additional hour of Once and losing an hour of Once. Sub 1 Once in Wonderland was replaced by Grey's Anatomy. It was mostly great replacements. Goldbergs vs. Back in the Game/Blacklish vs. Super Fun Night

Spot said...

CBS has had regional overrun every episode without national overrun this season. They haven't really been inflated before

Spot said...

I think this just shows The Walking Dead's power. Bob's Burgers barely up despite a better lead in and a higher viewed slot. Family Guy's inability to grow from Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Once Upon a Time's inability to grow in episode 2.

Spot said...

I get what you mean about going Galavant/Revenge/Resurrection: give Resurrection the known, if weak/mediocre, lead-in instead of an unproven wildcard like Galavant. But if there's a race between Revenge and Resurrection for a slot in 2015-2016, I throw my lot in with the former.

However, I think the real race is between Revenge, Nashville, and one of the midseason dramas for the last Sunday Fall 2015 slot (assuming a new drama replaces an hour due to Resurrection's cancellation). Revenge is the known player, Nashville is the syndication horse that Lionsgate will push for, and the midseason drama is ABC hoping not to have another Resurrection on its hands.

Spot said...

Exactly, that was what I meant. As for renewal race, I don't think there is any race between Revenge and Resurrection at all, I think Resurrection is really dead at this point while Revenge is a legitimate bubble show that could go either way.

I also cannot see ABC picking Revenge over Nashville as much as it pains me to say it. At best, ABC will have three open hours to launch new stuff (Resurrection, Forever, Tuesday comedies). Not only is this scenario already bad for bubble shows but it gets worse because if ABC renews something from midseason this goes to two and also because ABC tends to launch more than 3 hours of new stuff (this year they had 4, last year they had 6, the year before they had 4). So even for Nashville to make it to the fall schedule it will already be hard. If a midseason drama is renewed... where would it all go?
I mean DWTS+DWTS+Castle+Shield+TM/TG+MF/Blackish+Nashville+GA+Scandal+Murder+Shark Tank+20/20+TGIF or Beyond the Tank+OUAT+Midseason drama+Nashville=16 hours out of 18 and I can guarantee that ABC will launch more than 2 hours of new programs short of a development collapse of epic proportions.

Where does that leave Revenge? Well, I think it leaves it in the same situation as its timeslot rival, CSI: it's unlikely that the show finds its way to the fall schedule but it is possible that the network decides to keep it either to bridge the hiatus of serialized dramas in the winter or to replace a failed drama. If it shows enough ratings juice during winter and spring, I believe ABC would use it in that capacity, with the added bonus of getting it to the nice 100 episodes threshold that conventional wisdosm says makes for a better syndication package.

Spot said...

While that is true, the returnee's strength also shouldn't be underestimated.:
- DWTS was up in all of its half hours by double digits, including a +25% at 9h30
- Nashville is down but only 6%, which is actually up in PLUS
- LMS up some remarkable +23%

- Shark Tank is up 4% from an already huge season and with a weaker than average outing this week!
- 20/20 down 8% but again, up to even in PLUS

- OUAT is up an incredible 25%

But then yes, you have:
- Shield vs. comedies: +8%
- Forever vs. Repeats: +30%
- The Goldbergs vs. Back in the Game: +14%
- Blackish vs. Super Fun Night: +23%
- GA vs. Wonderland: A ridiculou +160% (!)
- Scandal vs. GA: +25% (this feels particularly impressive since it's not like it is replacing a flop, GA was already pretty strong)
- Murder vs. Scandal: +0% (normally wouldn't be that positive but considering the beast that Scandal was last year to equal it and thus grow some ~10% in PLUS is remarkable)
- Cristela vs. TN: + 29%

- The second OUAT vs. Revenge: +49%
- Revenge vs. Betrayal: +63%

Basically, we can say that the down hours are Mondays at 10pm with Castle, Wednesdays at 8pm with The Middle, Wednesdays at 9pm with MF and then of course the big one, which is Tuesdays at 8.

Spot said...

I'll preface this with the fact that Yotube has existed for 9 years now. Revenge going up is cool and all, but it only tied AFV which is 25 years old and airing at 7.

Spot said...

I would burn off remaining Revenge episodes in February at pace of 2 per week. Versus Super Bowl too, who cares, Revenge is dead show walking. Then, in March I would move Nashville to Sunday 10 PM, and premiere 4 new dramas: Wed 10 PM, Thu 10 PM, Sun 9 PM, and one somewhere on Tuesday.

Spot said...

I believe Revenge could still be of use for ABC next year if used as a Spackle so I would avoid jeopardizing it that much.

In addition, I don't really think it would be a good idea for them to launch that many shows in the Spring. Yes they have the Oscars but I still think it's too much. Remember that they also need to advertise Beyond the Tank so it would be 5 new hours, sounds too much to me. This being said, I agree that Nashville cannot occupy its slot the entire season, the opportunity cost is too high. But I would instead run it straight through and then start a new show there. There is enough room in the season to do that with a show that has a 10 episode order like American Crime. Probably requires a two hour Nashville finale but that can be done in a non-Sweeps period.

Spot said...

Not sure I see a too much value in comparing ratings for a 7pm family-friendly funny home video show and a serialized adult soap at 10pm. I assume they both have vastly different audiences, not to mention the heightened competition from the 4th quarter of SNF and The Walking Dead/Talking Dead later in the evening. Even though both AFV and Revenge tied in the demo, I think Revenge's performance was far superior and probably the best any network could hope for at 10pm that doesn't carry NFL games

Spot said...

According to 506 Sports itself, it aired in NYC (wonder why), Tampa, Charlotte, Washington D.C. and Kansas City among eastern/central markets (the later one is the only one that makes any sense because of the Chiefs-Chargers rivalry).

Spot said...

Revenge once again having a uptick thanks to a sizable lead-in change, see Resurrection premiere, yet, it's a dead show walking.

CBS doing business as usual and NBC once again disappointed they didn't flex Cardinals-Lions to primetime to air another blowout.

FOX ratings looking better, I was wondering if they switched the games too (Eagles-Packers didn't air in Seattle), this game was over in 30 minutes.

Spot said...

I think Brooklyn Nine-Nine is hurting Family Guy, and perhaps disrupting flow of the night. But only by a bit, and nowhere near to the point where Fox would consider moving it elsewhere. In fact, now I expect B99 to remain in the same timeslot next fall. I see it as combination of three factors:
1. Mindy getting 6 more episodes makes me think it would be renewed. If for nothing else, then for syndication and/or netflixication reasons. Then, why would Fox opt to have 3 veteran comedies (New Girl, B99), with not-so-great ratings on Mon-Thu schedule? Unless they have to do so, and I don't think they do.
2. I think Fox would like to restore all animated Sunday lineup one day... but I think it won't happen next fall. First, it doesn't seem they're having a ton of new animated stuff in pipeline. Next, Bob's Burger is nearing end. Plus, if Bordertown is renewed, probably it would be for 13 episodes Season 2, simply because it takes longer to produce animated episodes.
3. B99 ratings are acceptable, it's doing "OK, relatively to a disaster season Fox is having".

Point 1. is new information, that swayed me to believe B99 will keep its timeslot for at least one more season.

Spot said...

Football is down a lot this season compared to last year. I think that's weighing heavily on NBC's overall fall numbers, of course along with the Voice also being down double digits.

Spot said...

In singleheader weeks the affiliates pick one game from either the 1pm games or the 4:05pm game.

All of those markets had their teams playing 1pm games on FOX. (In the case of NY, the Giants played early and the Jets were on bye.) Suddenly it makes sense!

Spot said...

With this game Saturday Night Football is finally on the upside year to year. Let's see if ABC can avoid having a stinker in the tail end of the season.

Just to hammer the point home, 48 Hours only did a tenth worse than Elementary in raw numbers this week but in the second-lowest viewed hour of the week; it's Truly a tenth stronger. Season 4 of the procedural is going to be awful/fun to watch ratings-wise if things don't turn around.

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