Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/3/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: With New York City taken out of the CW numbers, Jane the Virgin (0.4) was even week-to-week and The Originals (0.5) hit a new low. ABC's CMA Awards preview (1.2) did significantly worse than Castle, while The Voice (3.5) was the only series to get an upward adjustment in finals. ESPN's Monday Night Football (4.3) hit a season low.
  • Week seven finally put an end to the long streak of declines for Gotham (2.4), as the series rebounded by two tenths. But that was of no help to Sleepy Hollow (1.5), down to a new low for the second straight week.
  • CBS saw small declines across the board in its second week with no The Big Bang Theory. 2 Broke Girls (2.2) dropped two tenths to a level at which CBS will still probably be pretty content. The Millers (1.6), Scorpion (2.2) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) each shed a tenth, marking new lows for all three.
  • On NBC, The Voice (3.4) and The Blacklist (2.4) gave back last week's gains. ABC and the CW were pre-empted for Monday Night Football, so it's likely another deceptive rise for Jane the Virgin (0.6).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.0 19% +5%+0.1n/a 3/10 +0% +5% +1% 2.1
Countdown to the CMA Awards 1.2 21% n/a -25% -45% 1.3
ABC:-4%-15%
2 Broke Girls 2.2 35% -8%-0.2n/a 2/2 -15% -8% -35% 2.3
The Millers 1.6 30% -6%-0.1-0.2 3/3 -38% -6% -38% 1.7
Scorpion 2.2 27% -4%-0.1-0.1 7/7 n/a -4% -4% 2.3
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.5 21% -6%-0.1-0.1 6/6 -38% -6% +43% 1.7
CBS:-6%-12%
The Voice Mon 3.5 37% -5%-0.2n/a 6/7 -3% -5% -3% 3.4
The Blacklist 2.4 33% -4%-0.1-0.2 6/7 -17% -4% -16% 2.2
NBC:-5%-7%
Gotham 2.4 46% +9%+0.2n/a 4/7 n/a +9% +17% 2.4
Sleepy Hollow 1.5 42% -6%-0.1+0.2 7/7 -40% -6% -40% 1.5
Fox:+3%-14%
The Originals 0.5 58% -17%-0.1n/a 5/5 -44% -17% +25% 0.6
Jane the Virgin 0.4 50% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/4 n/a +0% +33% 0.5
CW:-10%+29%
Big5:-4%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

62 comments:

Spot said...

I think it's crazy neither The Blacklist or LA were able to captialize on Castle's absense. Both were down from last week and LA hit a series low!

Spot said...

Great for Gotham. Uptick was dearly needed. Too bad for Sleepy Hollow. I really thought it had stabalized. At least Bones dropping from 1.7 to 1.3 makes it looks better. But Bob's Burgers matching that 1.5 at 7:30 with no lead in makes look really bad

Spot said...

So, in other news today, Celebrity Apprentice is NBC's Bachelor for this season. And with the Sunday premiere and two episodes per week, with the finale being two hours (?) my calculations involve Voice returning February 23rd. I would assume the premiere would be day after Super Bowl, but whatever. Of course, that's if they plan to have it on Mondays for the whole season, but that's another story. And now State of Affairs will get major love by having a poorer lead-in after 4-5 episodes...huh...

NBC: Almost, But Not Quite Using Smart Scheduling

Spot said...

Agreed. I expected some growth for both dramas too.

Spot said...

Watching The Millers shed half a ratings point after 2BG, only to see the viewers come right back for Scorpion must be killing CBS.

Spot said...

I wonder if/when Gotham will still get to a sub-2 rating this season.

Spot said...

I also think CBS will be ok with 2 Broke Girls continuing to be 2.x. It could be the second strongest comedy CBS has in raw numbers and/or True depending on how much the Thursday sitcoms swoon in their second week. I'm sure the network wishes they could have squeezed a season 10 out of How I Met Your Mother...

At least Gotham pulled out of the skid in week 7. It took SHIELD until week 8 to stop the bleeding last season.

And I guess Taylor Swift is only good for a one week bounce for The Voice. Makes sense since she's been everyone promoting the new album so some fatigue has probably set in.

Spot said...

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/11/04/cbs-announces-premiere-dates-for-the-mentalist-final-season-undercover-boss/324019/
The CBS schedule is crazy. Not sure why they are basically burning off Undercover Boss for The Amazing Race to have 2 in season cycles or why The Mentalist is getting preferential treatment over CSI

Spot said...

Hart of Dixie is returning to Fridays with Master of Illusions for some reason.

Spot said...

I can't figure out if they're in panic mode or what, but CBS has made some truly odd decisions this season.

Spot said...

Guess they ran out of Whose Line repeats. I dunno.

Spot said...

Well, with 18 episodes, there is enough time for SH to reach The Following levels, it's just one tenth away.


Gotham's stopped bleeding, awful numbers for Millers and LA on CBS and Blacklist's thursdays perspective is getting ugly, they better hope PTC is able to cancel Scandal (bwahahaha).

Spot said...

I think The Mentalist is squeezing into whatever timeslots they can fit it in, and if they put any at 10pm an overrun prevents them getting through the order.

CSI is cancelled, I think that's now abundantly clear between this and the shortened order.

Spot said...

One has to wonder if they've got a bee in their bonnet at a show with such prominent Black representation being one of the biggest hits in television...


Genuinely not sure how much Blacklist/Scandal overlap audience there is, but it can't be none.

Spot said...

The crazy thing is that I don't think that CSI is any weaker than NCIS: LA, Person of Interest, Stalker, The Good Wife, Hawaii 5-0, and especially Elementary. They want from protecting CSI with its second best drama lead in to treating it like its Rules of Engagement.

Spot said...

Once again, thanks for spotting the release that I missed.

Unless it is very short season, maybe they plan to move it to Sunday in February?
Sunday - from February 8th
7-9 PM - Celebrity Apprentice
9 PM - The Slap
10 PM - Aquarius (or The Odyssey)

from April 5th
7 PM The Voice repeats (or whatever)
8-10 PM - A. D.
10 PM - same

Spot said...

I'm not sure one week a trend makes. We'll need to see a few more weeks of stabilization for Gotham before declaring it has found its ratings floor. I am not hopeful that it will be able to stay above 2 for the remainder of its run this season, just based on historic ratings trends for most fantasy genre programming. The Gotham/Sleepy Hollow pairing might have sounded great on paper but the continued bleed of Sleepy's ratings tells a different story. It appears to me that the Gotham writers/creators still don't know what they want Gotham, the series, to be. You can't make a city or any location the star and focal point for a television series week after week, beyond exposition in its first episode. Gotham's emphasis on dark style and tone over any substantive characters to care about or compelling story telling makes watching an entire episode a chore, at least for me. I keep hoping some super hero is going to rise to the occasion or at least Commissioner Gordon's character will make me root for him. Right now I couldn't care any less about any of the inhabitants of Gotham. I think of all the comic book series and comic book-inspired series to debut in the last few years, Gotham is the weakest.yet. It took half a season for SHIELD to find it's voice so maybe Gotham will ultimately be successful, too but I think its emphasis on villains and a city in perpetual decay/decline coupled with its tone of hopelessness, don't bode well for Gotham's long term prospects..

Spot said...

Not a problem. I don't expect it to be a short one, since there's 16 contestants (link: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/11/04/the-celebrity-apprentice-new-season-to-premiere-sunday-january-4th/323943/), but a move to Sundays I believe is a possibility. Of course, while my 15-episode count is only an educated guess, I doubt it could last until April.

Spot said...

Wait, is there some sort of Scandal controversy?

Spot said...

PTC complained (pleonasm) because there was a sex scene on Scandal just 30 seconds after Charlie Brown's Halloween Special ended.

Spot said...

7 on Sundays is almost always Dateline

Spot said...

Well technically NBC made the decision first to air The Blacklist at Thursday 9/8, since their schedule came out I think 2 days earlier than ABC. ABC probably has already planned to have Scandal at 9/8 to lead in to Murder, but after the move of The Blacklist has been announced, there would be no way that Grey's is staying in that 9/8 slot to compete with The Blacklist. Ironically, The Blacklist is doing about the same numbers as Grey's Anatomy now.

Spot said...

ABC execs and Shonda Rhimes would gladly send PTC a fruit basket if they whipped up a conversation about the show that neither the network nor the studio had to put any promotional money into and brought in more viewers to see what the fuss is about.

Spot said...

Masters of Illusion only has 4 original episodes left according to deadline so it's a strange decision. I thought the show did well for summer Fridays on the CW, but I don't think it did well to warrant being brought back during the season especially only for 4 episodes, seems weird. HoD would probably have a better lead-in at 8 from local programming.

Spot said...

This is the same scheme they did in the summer. And at least now it makes some sense as they may believe Whose Line will grow from Masters and boost HoD.

Spot said...

I don't necessarily dislike what they are doing with The Mentalist, though I think it would serve them better if they saved it for summer, but I am fine with this one too.

What is puzzling to me is the bizarre decision of continuing to air TAR during the season. Why not revert it back to summer post Big Brother? I think it would thrive there and Boss would probably improve on its horrible Friday performance.

Spot said...

I agree with this. CBS had a brutal mindshift when it comes to CSI treatment, it's kind of weird. Even Miami or Mentalist were better treated when they went to Sunday (and they weren't coming from such good situations)

Spot said...

I agree. Two Broke Girls is probably the third strongest comedy on broadcast right now and I think they can live with that. One may argue that The Goldbergs/Black-ish/Men are around the same level and I don't disagree but I think those shows are pulling not so different numbers in much better situations so I give Girls the edge.

Spot said...

I wonder if what we are seeing this year for the mentalist could become a trend in the way CBS carries its shows to syndication.I mean, stuff like The Millers or Elementary cannot be saved regardless of where you put it on the schedule. You can put them behind big bang or the likes of it but it is such a colossal mistake. Midseason runs to bridge hiatuses would do no harm to their schedule.

Spot said...

I am not really so sure that NBC will launch the voice on early february. The gap between seasons would be ridiculously low (barely one month and a half, if that much).

Spot said...

Bob's Burgers is becoming FOX's Shark Tank: a show that should be doing much worse than 90% of the lineup but it isn't and that renders most of the comparisons with it pretty much inconclusive about the other shows' true strength.

Spot said...

It makes sense to me.
The CW usually launches midseason show(s) in February. Then Jane or Reign will go to Friday in February to make room for iZombie. So they're just using those remaining 4 original episodes of Masters of Illusion like some bridge in January. This way they have less repeats in January + they will test how Masters of Illusion does in regular season.

Spot said...

Yes, you have point. Gap would be 49 days only.
But they have SB this year, so I assumed they would use it to roll out their entire midseason lineup in 7 days following it. Except, obviously, A. D. Plus, if The Voice premieres in late February, then State of Affairs would go to 2 1/2 months hiatus after only some 5 episodes aired. Or it would air many episodes without Voice lead-in - I don't know which is worse.
For that two reasons, it might be February 2th premiere after all. But I'm not sure now.

Spot said...

I agree with all those points, but I really don't think it would be good for the show to have such a short break. I realize that NBC hasn't exactly shown to be worried about preserving the show's life before so they may not care about this, but I don't think they've ever done anything that would be such a blatant burning out the show like a 49 days would be. So I also don't know, but I think there is at least a chance that they do not bring it back straight away, while all the discussions have seen assume they do.

As for State of Affairs, I agree and I have commented before multiples times. There is no good solution for it. I really do not understand why they didn't do The Voice/ The Sing-Off in the last weeks of November and December and then premiered State of Affairs after the voice spring cycle. It would have been much cleaner. The Blacklist repeats could have aired after the apprentice, also as a way to not take the show off the air entirely. The fact that they didn't do it and gave Sofa such a weird scheduling makes me think they want to air it during the voice hiatus, otherwise what would be the rationale for such an odd premiere timing? I don't know, it is very strange.

Spot said...

I absolutely agree that Jane (or Reign but I think it's less likely) will probably go to Fridays at 9pm in March after Whose Line 3rd season premieres there.

But my point was just that it seems strange why they didn't just add those 4 MOI leftovers to next summer instead of bringing it back up just for that short period of time. I mean, Whose Line repeats would probably do better anyway. But it's not very important anyway, I agree.

Spot said...

Thanks.

Then it's probably 16 to 18 hours season. Premiere is January 4, Sun 9-11 PM, after which it moves to Mon 8-10 PM. That's all we know for now. There are two scenarios from there on.
A. 7 or 8 x 2 hours at Monday, with The Voice premiere 2/23 or 2/30.
B. 4 x 2 hours at Monday, followed by 6 to 8 x 1 hour on Sun 8 PM after The Voice premiere at 2/2.

Option A - one move less, and generally less messy.
Option B - The Voice premiere gets SB promotion, and State of Affairs gets better treatment.

I like option B better, but (because of explanations by you and omabin) I think NBC will go for option A.

Spot said...

I checked thefutoncritic now, and it says State of Affairs has only 13 episodes. Wow, Heigl apparently thinks she's Kevin Bacon or Viola Davis, She couldn't be more wrong, but that's not important here.
Important is it sheds some light on their Monday plans:

first 7 or 8 weeks in 2015:
Celebrity Apprentice 2 hours, at 10 PM Blacklist repeats

from last week in February / or first in March
The Voice / remaining 8-9 episodes of State of Affairs
With State of Affairs finale in late April / early May, and The Voice finale in late May.

That's not what I would do, but it seem they plan to do so.

Spot said...

I thought it was 18 or something. That's even crazier then that they are premiering the show now. If they premiered the voice + state of affairs on February 18th, they would be able to run State of Affairs repeats free until the end of the season.


But it probably means that you are right, I agree that's the likely schedule, though I think State of Affairs will run until the end of May Sweeps with one or two repeats airing in April if needed. I mean, why would they premiere State of Affairs now if they could premiere it February 18th and run it straight through? The only reason I can think of is that the voice won't be back until early march or late february.



I wonder what will happen to Tuesdays now. Probably Game Night + comedies burn offs with new comedies premiering after the voice spring cycle.

Spot said...

I think Grey's Anatomy would still be able to beat The Blacklist in most weeks, considering it is doing the same as The Blacklist is doing now and that 1) GA is airing in the lower viewed 8pm hour and 2) The Blacklits is airing after the voice.

Spot said...

Then you think their roll out will be something like this?

Monday 02/16/2014 - iZombie (Premiere) at 9 PM
Jane the Virgin goes to hiatus

Wednesday 02/25/2014 - The 100 (Finale)

Wednesday 03/04/2014 - The Messengers (Premiere) at 9 PM

Friday 03/13/2014 - Hart of Dixie (Series Finale)

Friday 03/20/2014
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (Season Premiere) at 8 PM
Jane the Virgin (new timeslot premiere) at 9 PM

With backup plan for the case iZombie bombs:
Jane the Virgin after hiatus simply returns to Mon 9 PM in March
Friday 9 PM = Beauty and the Beast

Spot said...

Maybe i jumped the gun - maybe by "13 episodes" they actually mean "13 with possible back order of 5".

Spot said...

Yes, something like that sounds about right. I didn't check the dates to see if all the orders would fit, etc, but that would be what I think it is happening. This being said, I still think there is a chance they give the flash lead-in to izombie and put Supernatural on Mondays. But that would require (as we have discussed before) that izombie is actually compatible with the flash, which I really don't know anymore if it will be or not. But it doesn't matter, the general idea would be the schedule you posted.

Another thing is that Beast may run in the summer even if iZombie flops because they can just burn iZombie on Fridays instead. But again, it's a lateral decision, not important.

Spot said...

To be honest I am not even sure if the futoncritic knows how many episodes there are. I think they keep closer attention than we do of the announcements networks make but since there hasn't been any official "official" announcement, I am not sure if they would know it. Shouldn't take long for them to announce the schedule though.

Spot said...

By the way what are your thoughts on CBS's midseason plan? I haven't seen your thoughts on that yet.

Spot said...

Before season start I though their midseason comedies plan is:
Tue 9 PM in Jan/Feb bridge: Mr. Robinson / One Big Happy, 6 episodes each, simply throwing it against the wall.
Thu 9 PM (or Wed 8 PM) : Parks / Kimmy - seems like good fit.
Tue 9 PM when Voice returns: 2 best doing among 4 comedies in fall schedule.

Alas, all 4 fall comedies flopped, so I think they will cancel all 4 of them, and do something completely different in midseason. Purely out of desperation, to find some face saving renewal:
Tue 9 PM in Jan/Feb bridge: Parks final season burn off.
Tue 9 PM when Voice returns: Kimmy / Mr. Robinson (followed by One Big Happy).

Yes, those midseason comedies doesn't seem to be fit good with The Voice, but what can they do - all 3 compatible romcom sitcoms flopped (+ not fitting Bad Judge too) .

Spot said...

According to Spot, last season CBS was the network with the most repeats among all networks 27% of its real estate. This year they will cut it in two (if not more) to be the network with the least repeats. That's what I thin

Spot said...

I remember reading on SpoilerTV that the show was 16 episodes. I would link it, but I'm in school, so I can't do it right now. Of course Murder got a pick-up of 13 to 15, so keep that in mind.

Spot said...

For once we agree ahah, it's very rare. I have long argued that Parks final season should be burned off in double pumps Thursdays at 8 in January and February. I never understood the idea of using Parks to launch Kimmy. They may be compatible but that wouldn't really do Kimmy much good even if it managed to retain 100% of Parks.

I think they will do that as you are saying. However, the About a Boy reports are contradictory. The stars have tweeted that it is 22 episodes. So it is possible that About a Boy is still airing at 9h30 when The Voice returns, which would push a comedy (One Big Happy?) to summer to pair with Undateable.

Spot said...

But it still could be 18 hours with 16 episodes:
2-hours premiere + 14 x 1 hour episodes + 2-hours finale.
Not really important, just my stupid nitpicking.

Spot said...

I think About a Boy has 13 episodes. But for the sake of argument, let's assume it has 22 episodes.
Now, if AaB drops bellow 1.0 during first 13 episodes, there's no way they they would leave it on Tuesday, they would burn off last 9 or so episodes in summer or wherever.
While if it stabilizes in low 1s, I think they would put it on hitaus, and then wait and see how midseason entries do. If some among those would rate bellow 1.0, then they would replace it with AaB. That's my opinion.

Spot said...

It's possible I suppose. Unfortunately, I think we might see About a Boy struggling to stay above a 1.0 even today, which means you might test your theory soon.

Spot said...

It's just my speculation that both The Messengers and iZombie are not promising. But that's not some wild guess, educated guess says Pedowitz always pushes less strong rookies to midseason.

Anyway, we will know soon, a month from now at most. Last year they announced midseson schedule on December 12th, and this year it should be even sooner, maybe even much sooner. Because by now they already made all other important decisions, and all their shows stabilized at some level of ratings (except maybe The 100).

Spot said...

I don't necessarily agree that the 100 was less promising than say, The Tomorrow People last year. And the year before they seemed quite high on the carrie diaries which was launched midseason. Of course there was cult which was clearly a burn off from the start, but I am not sure we can generalize. We shall see. I have no personal opinion in iZombie but I think the Messengers looks quite good.

Spot said...

Yeah. But last night The Voice was some recap, not regular results show, right? So it's possible comedy block would bounce back next week. To still pathetic ratings, but I suppose decision to axe one or both Tuesday comedies already during fall will come from if NBC brass thinks it's actually hurting Chicago Fire. While for them to return in midseason there would be some ratings threshold. It doesn't matter whether it's 1.0 or not, 1.0 is just nice round number I used.

Spot said...

Yeah I get your point.

Spot said...

I wouldn't say that quite yet. It hit a freakin' .6 last year. Perhaps this spring can be different

Spot said...

I was referring to this year only.

Spot said...

Still, only 2 results in. Honestly, I disagree with the internet and think its a dreadful program, but I hope you're right. The thing is Bob's is like Shark Tank where its shown airing in a higher HUT area doesn't make a ton of a difference. I had hit 2 1.5's and a 1.6 post Simpsons last year before the move.

Spot said...

I agree with TAR and Big Brother. I think Mentalist on Wednesday is good because January was the lowest point for their crime block last year and having an original procedural lead in will help

Spot said...

Yeah I don't dislike The Mentalist's placement. But I feel like overall it would be better off to double pump it in November or on January on a couple of nights instead of airing it in late December, seems like a big waste to me, that's my only problem with its schedule, otherwise I like it.

Boss I don't like because I really thought TAR should have gone to summer. I mean, it is likely to be deep sub 1.0 in the spring since it is already at 1.0 in the fall, what is the point?

Spot said...

You could argue that despite GA airing in a lower viewed 8 p.m. hour, the put levels actually increase across the hour instead of decreasing as in the 10 p.m.'s slot.

Spot said...

True but I think Monday 10-11 pm hour as a whole is still higher viewed than Thursdays 8-9pm. Spot can correct me if I am wrong though.

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