Friday, November 7, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/6/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: CBS got brutalized again in the finals, putting Mom (2.3), Two and a Half Men (2.1) and The McCarthys (1.5) all down by multiple tenths from last week's premieres. NBC also took hits in the finals but was still slightly up week-to-week for the most part. And The Vampire Diaries (0.8) again got an uptick to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.
  • Week two of CBS' return to Thursday entertainment programming with The Big Bang Theory (4.2), Mom (2.6), Two and a Half Men (2.3), The McCarthys (1.7) and Elementary (1.4) saw most shows even to slightly up from last week's finals. These results are once again pending an NFL pre-emption, though it may not be as brutal this week with only one pre-emption in a modest market.
  • ABC put Grey's Anatomy (2.4) back in the 8/7c hour and it saw no real effect in its first episode against The Big Bang Theory. After rising with no Grey's last week, Scandal (2.9) fell with its lead-in restored, while How to Get Away with Murder (2.8) inched back up.
  • NBC preliminarily had growth across the board with The Biggest Loser (1.3), Bad Judge (1.1), A to Z (1.0) and Parenthood (1.4)... but it also had a pre-emption.
  • Fox's Bones (1.3) didn't rally from its big drop last week, while the CW's Reign (0.4) dropped and The Vampire Diaries (0.7) will need another finals uptick to avoid a new season low.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 2.4 38% -4%-0.1n/a 4/6 -11% +37% +167% 2.4
Scandal 2.9 37% -6%-0.2+0.7 6/7 +4% -5% +7% 2.5
How To Get Away With Murder 2.8 39% +4%+0.1-0.2 5/7 n/a +4% +2% 2.6
ABC:+8%+28%
The Big Bang Theory 4.3 33% +5%+0.2n/a 7/8 -12% +5% -12% 4.1
Mom 2.3 27% -8%-0.2+0.2 2/2 +15% -8% -12% 1.9
Two and a Half Men 2.1 29% -13%-0.3-0.2 2/2 +5% -13% +0% 1.9
The McCarthys 1.5 29% -12%-0.2-0.3 2/2 n/a -12% -25% 1.3
Elementary 1.2 22% +0%+0.0-0.2 1/2 -33% +4% -31% 1.5
CBS:-3%-17%
The Biggest Loser 1.2 35% +9%+0.1n/a 6/9 -43% +9% -52% 1.4
Bad Judge 0.9 31% +0%+0.0+0.1 5/6 n/a +0% -36% 1.1
A to Z 0.8 37% +14%+0.1+0.0 5/6 n/a +14% -20% 1.0
Parenthood 1.3 42% +18%+0.2+0.1 2/7 +0% +13% +0% 1.6
NBC:+10%-33%
Bones 1.3 29% +0%+0.0n/a 5/6 -35% +0% +8% 1.4
Gracepoint 0.7 29% -13%-0.1+0.0 6/6 n/a -7% -55% 0.8
Fox:-2%-27%
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 64% +0%+0.0n/a 3/6 -38% +7% -36% 0.8
Reign 0.4 38% -20%-0.1+0.0 3/6 -33% -20% -33% 0.5
CW:-4%-35%
Big5:+2%-13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

43 comments:

Spot said...

Seriously that ABC lineup is freaking fantastic and I will dare to say that Grey's Anatomy is the most impressive broadcast drama to air in the A18-49 era.

Spot said...

According to Wayne Friedman from MediaPost that good ABC Thursday lineup is even more good in C3 A18-49. Yesterday he wrote:
"ABC’s Thursday night -- the highest non-sports C3 18-49 ratings night, averaging a 3.47 rating."

That is for first 4 weeks of regular season(from September 22 through October 19).
Now I calculated first 4 episodes averages Live+SD A18-49 (hopefully correct):
2.63 / 3.25 / 3.27
Then C3 for those 3 are (my educated guess):
2.9 / 3.7 / 3.8

Spot said...

Even more impressive for TGIT!

Spot said...

I haven't kept track, but can anyone tell me the trajectory of Thursday Night Football's ratings for the NFL Network only? I'm curious if giving the games/network greater visibility on CBS has meaningfully bumped its ratings. CBS has always been overly damaged on NFL Draft night in April (see 2011, 2012, and 2013), and perhaps a contributing reason its shows peak in January/February on Mondays and Thursdays is because their target audience no longer has football as an option (Dancing with the Stars & The Voice's absences also help things on Mondays).


Meanwhile, we can see why ABC wants to get TGIT back on the lineup ASAP in the new year, even though I contend (as well as some of the commentariat here) that mid-season premieres would be a better way to blunt NBC's new Thursday lineup with The Blacklist. I guess trying to come in 2nd for February Sweeps is more important.


Cue the "Save our show! See, it's ratings aren't all that bad!!" campaigns for Bad Judge and A to Z after a preliminary uptick.

Spot said...

The Vampire Diaries 1.1 W18-34 preliminary. That seems to be show's new, and never lower, standard -> 4 of last 5 episodes were at 1.0 or 1.1. After 6 episodes W18-34 average is at 1.15, which is 35% down y2y, and isn't good by no means. Not even if we factor in increased competition (Grey's). But, like a broken record, I'll say it's still great for CW standards.

Reign 0.5 W18-34 preliminary. Exactly same 0.5 as did Jane (W18-34 final) and The 100 (A18-49 final). That's one helluva of a snail race.

Spot said...

I think the episode count is easily the tie-breaker in that snail race. I don't see any reason for one of the others to make it over Reign if the relative ratings remain.

Spot said...

ABC can't stop to impress.

CW fading on thursdays just like they did on mondays.

Preemptions will shed a tenth from NBCBS

Spot said...

I am curious about which network do you think has February Sweeps on lock (assuming you are talking about the non-sports entertainment race only). Last week, which is as much of a regular week as we got this season, the results were:
- ABC: 1.80
- CBS: 1.94
- NBC: 1.67

Caveats are:
- Halloween on Friday for all networks (but perhaps more relevant to the NBC combo)
- Grey's Anatomy preempted for Halloween

- SVU and Chicago PD on repeat mode
- CBS's Sunday lineup was way above average due to the huge inflation of 60 Minutes



If we "correct" some of these we get to (excluding the Halloween thing which I don't have a good way of correcting):
- ABC: 1.85 (using this week's preliminary Thursday results instead of last week's)
- CBS: 1.87 (using two week's ago Sunday results instead of last week's)
- NBC: 1.77 (using this week's Wednesday results instead of last week's)


So this is an extremely tight three-way race. I can by no means predict the ranking of these three in February. What were you predicting in your comment? I would end to favour CBS especially because ABC will still be in replacement mode in some areas (OUAT, Shield) but by no means it's a sure thing, especially because the return of Shonda block last year after winter brought in bring numbrs so this year the same could happen. Of course if NBC doesn't bring the voice straight away they are a lock for third place.

Spot said...

Kinda disappointed by The Big Bang Theory. It almost always gets a big bounce for the return of Standard Time, and it really didn't. It's down a full point from its performance the first week of November last year, like -19%. The show is so big its still easily tops on broadcast, but I don't like the trajectory. I was hoping that though it had peaked, it would only drop like 7% this season

Spot said...

I'm including sports, so it would pretty clearly be NBC because of the Super Bowl.

But if we are excluding sports/specials and the like (which the Big 3 all have this time around: the Super Bowl (NBC), Grammys (CBS), and Oscars (ABC)), then it's more interesting.

ABC should gain ground on Mondays with The Bachelor, lose ground on Sundays, and is a wash on the rest of the week (I think Agent Carter will roughly do what SHIELD is pulling now, give or take a tenth). CBS in general continues its slow ascent as it typically does throughout the season; Wednesdays in particular may go better with The Mentalist at 8:00 instead of reruns, though not by much. And the improvement on NBC Thursdays will be more than lost on Sundays, Mondays, and Tuesdays.

So it's a toss-up between ABC and CBS. It just about boils down to which network you think will take a bigger hit against The Blacklist: Scandal as the natural drama competition or Two and a Half Men/other sitcom as older-skewing shows that would be more interested in James Spader's antics.

Spot said...

Selfie winter (or series) finale is set for 11/26 after its 9th episode. Today ABC announced holidays schedule, and holidays specials are taking over Tuesday 8 PM through entire December.

That doesn't help figuring out what they plan for midseason, now I see as much as 3 possible scenarios for Tue 8PM:
A. January only: Selfie / Modern Family repeats
from February: new drama The Whispers

B. January & February: comedies (some combination of Fresh off the Boat / Selfie / MF repeats)
from 3/3/2015 (SHIELD 2nd half season premiere): Beyond the Tank -or- DWTS results -or- even Shark Tank with BtT at Friday 9 PM.

C. comedies entire midseason
merge this block with Friday block in March (with plan to put Beyond the Tank at Friday 9 PM in March)
initially some combination of Fresh off the Boat / Selfie / MF repeats
in March Last Man Standing and/or Cristela remaining episodes added into mix

Spot said...

Yeah, Selfie just deleted her account, if you catch my drift. And Forever will stay immortal...okay. Will discuss schedule ideas later.

Spot said...

I don't think the full season order of Forever is entirely shocking. ABC doesn't have too many procedurals and in spite of Forever's low same day ratings, it does garner decent (and meaningless DVR) demo ratings which at least indicates continued viewer interest in it. ABC could always minimize repeats of other 10pm shows like Castle or even Revenge by using Forever as filler, too if they decide to try something new at 10pm Tuesday, especially when the new Marvel series, Agent Carter debuts..

Spot said...

Forever has got a full season, why is ABC is doing it I don't know, except if they want to avoid last season's disaster at that timeslot, so, why not extending it to 18?


ABC bench has American Crime (I expected it to replace Resurrection on sundays, not so sure right now), Astronaut Wives Club (former summer pickup) and The Whispers, ABC has to fill the 8 PM timeslot, but would they try Forever vs NCIS despite being bound to lose.

Spot said...

I see the logic here. The comedies are done and Shield is going on hiatus until March. Agent Carter is a complete unknown, so they don't want to start all over for all three hours completely. Forever does not seem very dependent or even related to Shield's ratings, so if Carter flops, it won't take anything down with it. I think Carter has potential to do big ratings as the main characters are more related to the Avenger's than anyone in Shield was (Captain America's Girlfriend and Iron Man's Dad), but not launching something new out of an unknown is smart

Spot said...

I see now, Selfie capped at 13, Forever got back 9.
How comes I always miss those important press releases?

Anyway, it helps a bit. Now I can see this:
1. The Whispers at Tuesday 8 PM in February. It always seemed to me like most male oriented (or at least, lest female oriented) unscheduled drama, and thus destined for Tuesday. If ABC wants to lose money with Forever on 10 PM, Tue 8 PM seems logical.

2. Fresh off the Boat: pre-canceled. Decison to prefer MF repeats on Tue 8:30 PM speaks volumes. And now they don't have anything to pair it with,

3. ABC doesn't have faith in some/all their midseason dramas. I can see 1 or 2 dramas pushed to summer.
The Astronaut Wives Club originally was imagined as summer show, so there you have it.
Other one to be American Crime (deadline hinted ABC doesn't like something about it) or Revenge, veteran that's on air for syndication reason only. If t they wan American Crime and Members Only to both premiere in midseason, Revenge could be burn off in summer. Or even in January/February. It would be funny to see crazy Revenge fans reactions if ABC would air 2 or 3 hours of Revenge against Super Bowl.

Spot said...

American Crime just feels like a serious Sunday 9pm show. It's the one new show this new television season I am anticipating the most. I'm guessing it will get a huge push during the Academy Awards ceremony, just like Resurrection did. From what I have read about it and the small clip I've seen, it looks the best drama by far for the 2013/2015 television season. Like Resurrection, I think American Crime has big ratings debut potential but not sure if the serious subject matter will resonate long term with a broad network audience. This might be one of those shows that is better suited for a premium cable network like HBO which could nurture its disturbing subject matter with more graphic content...

Spot said...

"That's one helluva nailbiter of a snail race." This made me chuckle.


Since I have no dog in the fight, I'm selfishly hoping for Jane, Reign, T100 (and maybe one or both of the mid-season freshies) to idle at 0.4–0.6 for the rest of the season just to keep things interesting right to the very end. The CW cancellation battles are always, somehow, the most compelling.

Spot said...

It's hilarious that the show's been on the air for two months and it's already getting a spackle season. Such is the state of modern broadcast.

Spot said...

Another week of adjustments for CBS, Mom now at a 53% retention from TBBT (2.3 out of a 4.3), Men down to 2.1, McCarthys dead at 1.5 and Elementary at 1.2.


I guess TBBT audience will keep rejecting every show that airs after it, CBS comedy lineup in january will be hard to guess (except for McCarthys gone). But no one know what goes at the bottom of the hours.

Spot said...

They've jerked it around so much, I'm not surprised that they dented their most popular show. And for what? To give Scorpion and Mom a couple extra tenths.

Spot said...

But didn't they plan to move Millers to Thursday, and Mom to Monday in January. Won't they know just leave Mom on Thursday and put Mike & Molly on Monday, where it usually is?

Spot said...

It's 4.3 is a bit better. Especially since I looked it had a 4.9 last season in the same week

Spot said...

Oh that's easy. McCarthys gets pulled by next week, when Mike and Molly returns. The lineup stays that way, until January if (and that's a big if) Millers and Mom replace timeslots.

And of course there is also Odd Couple. Will it be a Bad Teacher, or a Friends with Better Lives? This really depends, to me, on 2.5 Men's episode order. I've heard people saying it will be shortened, but I've never seen a legit confirmation. However, if 2.5 Men are a full order, than CBS will run one of their Thursday or Monday comedies straight through, then Odd Couple goes into that timeslot. Elementary? Um...it goes to Friday? Battle Creek airs in that slot? Okay, I'm completely lost on that one, but the rest I'm confident in.

Spot said...

Two and a Half Men had roughly 72% retention when it aired after Big Bang Theory. It's not impossible to do better retention.

Spot said...

Well, we pretty much agree here. Still don't see why Forever got a back 9. I guess to fill in a timeslot a la Trophy Wife? I do believe though that American Crime will stay in its planned timeslot. American Crime, IIRC, was generally well-recieved at upfronts and pilot season, and something has to replace Resurrection, so why not one of their critical darlings? Sunday seems to be more and more like a "prestige" night, at least in CBS and ABC land. Members Only could go there as well, but my gut tells me it's American Crime.

Whispers is my final guess for the Selfie/MLS slot. It's the closest thing, next to maybe Forever that's compatible with Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Fresh Off the Boat will get the Happy Endings/Apt. 23/How to Live treatment: the show was only picked up to get another season of Last Man Standing, and unless Cristela gets canceled, then FOtB is another one-season comedy wonder, like every other comedy this fall not named Black-ish.

Astronauts Wives Club will probably be their Black Box. A show intended for summer that just might get into the season.

Spot said...

But will they pull McCarthys next week? If Thursday lineup didn't premiered late, then I would say yes. But now McCarthys has only 4 episodes more to air in 2014, plus for January CBS plans comedies schedule changes anyway, so I say think no.
It goes without a saying they will cancel McCarthys soon. But, this close to holidays, I think CBS can put up with 1.4-1.5 for few more episodes, I think they will yank McCarthys before January only if it hits 1.3 or lower.

Spot said...

I think regardless of which of the 2 have the post-BBT slot in January, neither will deserve to have it next fall.

Spot said...

I don't know about American Crime pilot, I only read that people whom read its script said it was plain awful. I didn't pay much attention to it, until Nellie form deadline said show maybe lost Sunday slot. Few days later, American Crime was left out of recent midseason premiere dates list issued by ABC, which made me suspicious. Thus I'm now assuming Sunday 9 PM goes to Secrets & Lies, and Thursday 10 PM to Members Only. We'll see.

BTW, ABC can launch Astronauts Wives Club and/or other drama already in April, if they want it for some reason. Not-split-season dramas Nashville/Revenge/Forever are returning already in January, and if ABC minimizes repeats, each of them can have season finale in April. Can, doesn't have to. And, for Forever and Revenge that's series finale, of course,

Spot said...

Surely the DVR interest is only "meaningless" if the ads are fast-forwarded? (Of course, we don't have those all-important C3 numbers most of the time, hence rolling with that L+SD proxy.)

Spot said...

If TBBT keeps tumbling there could be some serious buyer's remorse on TNF. They gave TBBT the double move treatment - which not even freaking Bones could survive! - and for what? To air a half-dozen blowouts.

Spot said...

Yeah, I might have been talking out of my ass. I think I might have gotten it from TVBTN posters, and the prestige of John Ridley. But let's see what happens.

Spot said...

I wonder if most of it wasn't Men's audience already since it dropped 24% despite airing after TBBT.

Spot said...

To clarify, American Crime didn't lost its Sunday timeslot. It's not confirmed one way or around.
Nellie simply said "I hear that might change.". And American Crime being among few shows ABC didn't announced midseason premiere date (two days ago they announced it for most shows) doesn't confirm it too. Though, it confirms they're not sure what to do.

It means Secrets & Lies going to Sunday is just my opinion, not a fact.

Spot said...

Men was already doing high 3's on Monday before the move, and seeing as it went -40% y2y after losing Big Bang, I'm sure it was keeping it afloat.

Spot said...

I think the name of the game for networks now is to just ride it out. BBT reruns could do just as well, but that's not going to help anything else, especially not Elementary. They'll just try something else in January.

Spot said...

There is no such thing as "the name of the game for networks". That's a simpleminded generalization. Every network is case for itself, shows from the same network can be different cases.
If McCarthys drop bellow some threshold, it will be pulled, especially as they have Mike & Molly waiting in the wings. There's no slightest doubt about. Is it 1.3 like I say, or some other number? That is debatable.

Spot said...

I agree. One of the best schedules in years, and the Wednesday comedy line-up is pretty stellar too. Grey's Anatomy is really holding its weight, particularly the last couple of seasons.

Spot said...

David, I now routinely add that DVR caveat about being "meaningless" because there are certain individuals on the web who always jump down my throat when I don't acknowledge it. So rather than receive a lecture from those individuals about how I don't understand ratings, etc I'll continue to attach "meaningless" to any mention of DVR ratings. But you, my friend, are absolutely spot on, although everything I read about C3 indicates there isn't much change from live + same day for "most" programs. Personally, I view respectable and consistent DVR ratings as a great gauge of a show's popularity. I watch nearly 70% of television post live airing but mostly through VOD and streaming now. My DVR has become mostly a collector of dust rather than programs.

Spot said...

Calling it simpleminded is unnecessary. It's fairly obvious that the networks are not pulling shows as quickly as they used to. That was the whole narrative for a while. "Why hasn't a show been cancelled yet?" ABC did eventually drop Manhattan Love Story, but only because they can double-pump Selfie until January. Then they ordered a full season of low-rated drama Forever in part, I believe, because they wanted to prevent the ridiculous carousel of failure that was Tuesdays at 10 last year. NBC's sticking with Bad Judge and A to Z until they finish their 13 episodes...before January. FOX may have killed off Utopia, but they still have Red Band Society and Gracepoint doing not much better and we haven't heard of them being pulled early. Mulaney just got it's order cut, so it'll be over by February. It's not an isolated instance, it's a pattern.


TVBTN had a great article saying that networks are waiting for either fall, midseason or summer to debut most new shows because they want to make sure that they give each one a decent amount of promotion before they give them a time slot. Cancelling shows and pulling them only makes sense if you know that the replacement will do better. Mike and Molly was very weak last year (-25%) because CBS just threw it on in November a month after dropping We Are Men.

Spot said...

How did it worked for Manhattan Love Story? Or Utopia? Michael J. Fox Show? Half a dozen shows ABC tried last season at Tue 10 PM? There's numerous examples. There's no pattern one or another way. Of course, when every show is different case. Among other things, it depends on how deep particular network's bench is that season, how close it is to holidays season, how much make-good ads are costing them if there's already planned overhaul of timeslot / entire night (so why overhaul it twice) ...

That TVBTN article is simpleminded, dumb crap. They take anecdotal things and declare it "the name of the game for networks". Laughable '________ is dead' approach taken from big media book. My advice to you is: Don't think everything you read on internet is true, try and learn using your own head instead.

Spot said...

That's not the reason Mike and Molly was very weak. It was very weak
because a) the entire slate of CBS comedy took a major step down from
where it was before and b) it was thrown into an anchor position for the
first time when it is clearly a bottom of the hour show and c) its
lead-in, 2BG, took a major step-down from where it was the year before.
If anything, the November launch and all the attention it got at the
time (the new Mike and Molly etc) actually helped instead of working
against it.

Spot said...

I think so.

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