Friday, May 9, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/8/14


  • The NFL Draft (4.6 on ESPN, 1.1 on NFL Network) obliterated records and took its usual surprisingly large chunk of ratings juice away from The Big Bang Theory (3.8). The good news is it didn't hurt the rest of CBS that much on a week-to-week basis (perhaps since they already took their huge drops last week). But it meant no week three miracle for Bad Teacher (1.3), still well behind lead-in Two and a Half Men (2.1) as well as The Crazy Ones' usual deliveries.
  • Some finals help meant ABC's dramas ended up about as resilient as usual on Draft night,with Grey's Anatomy (2.5) giving back just a single tenth of the Isaiah Washington bounce last week. Black Box (1.2) was also down a tenth in week three.
  • NBC continued its mix of random stuff to wrap up the season on Thursday. The American Comedy Awards (1.0) leading out of an original Hollywood Game Night (0.9) were a much weaker combo than last week's iHeartRadio awards show.
  • For the True scores, the ESPN Draft rating (4.6) is applied as cable competition for the networks. This causes some irregularities, as I can't account for how the show broke down across the half-hours. But it at least somewhat helps off-set the noticeable week-to-week PUT growth.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy (R) 0.7 28% -26% -44% 0.9
Grey's Anatomy 2.5 40% -4%-0.1-0.3 18/22 -19% -4% -18% 3.3
Black Box 1.2 33% -8%-0.1-0.1 3/3 n/a -8% -63% 1.2
The Big Bang Theory 3.8 33% -16%-0.7n/a 23/23 -22% -16% -22% 4.6
The Millers 1.9 27% -5%-0.1-0.7 22/22 n/a -5% -46% 1.9
Two and a Half Men 2.1 32% +0%+0.0-0.1 14/22 -40% +0% -16% 2.6
Bad Teacher 1.3 29% -7%-0.1+0.0 3/3 n/a -7% -43% 1.5
Elementary 1.5 25% -6%-0.1-0.1 21/23 -21% -6% -19% 1.7
Hollywood Game Night 0.9 36% +0%+0.0n/a 11/12 n/a -44% -25% 1.2
American Comedy Awards 1.0 40%
n/a -41% -41% 1.3
Hell's Kitchen 1.5 44% -6%-0.1n/a 8/9 -21% -6% -47% 1.9
American Idol Thu 1.6 28% +7%+0.1-0.1 16/17 -45% +7% -27% 2.2
Surviving Jack 1.2 38% +20%+0.2+0.1 2/7 n/a +20% -37% 1.6
The Vampire Diaries 0.7 59% -13%-0.1n/a 20/21 -30% -13% -30% 0.9
Reign 0.5 47% +0%+0.0-0.1 15/21 n/a +0% +11% 0.6

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Gosh-dang sports!!

Spot said...

Modern Family under a 3 and Big Bang Theory under a 4 in the same week? Carnage I tell ya! Pure carnage. All FOX comedies were up week to week, but everything else was down. 2 Broke Girls, Friends with Better Lives, Mike & Molly, The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Growing Up Fischer, About a Boy, The Middle, Suburgatory, Big Bang Theory, The Millers, and Bad Teacher all either match their lows or hit a new one. Only Modern Family and Mixology avoided lows.

Plus the Good Wife hit a new low, The Mentalist tied its low, Person of Interest too, Nashville tied low, new low for Revolution, Chicago PD tied a low, Grey's Anatomy tied a series low, new low for Black Box. Castle tied a low too!

Reality still hit too. The Voice Results hit a low as well as, Idol hitting a performance low, plus Dancing with the Stars went from season high to low.

Props to the Blacklist for staying steady and Chicago Fire for actually growing while the rest of the night collapsed.

Spot said...

This happens every year. The sky is not falling.

Spot said...

I suspect a lot of the half-hourly deterioration from previous years isn't there this year because the story was Johnny Manziel, and he stuck around on the board until well after 10pm ET.

Given that, and the beating it took last year from the draft, that 2.1 for Men is very impressive indeed.

Spot said...

Kinda curious that the draft hurt TBBT (and Millers) but not 2.5 Men.

Depressing night all around.

Spot said...

I can't believe 24 repeated that badly! It's not like its like hour 7 seven randomly shown, it was the premiere, so it shouldn't have alienated audiences.
How's Line is it Anway's repeat of last week outdid the original. I think About a Boy is the only show to have a repeat beat its original broadcast

Spot said...

Totally off topic, but thanks to Deadline's following of tough negotiations regarding Nashville renewal, now we know why producers were so sure in renewal.

Recently I said Nashville is in deficit of about $1.6 million per episode, and wondered how studio plans to recoup it. It's easy task for procedural like Hawaii 5-0 or Blue Bloods that sells well into syndication, but for a serialized soap? Out of stronger cable players, maybe only Lifetime would be interested. Some others would be interested, but those cannot cash out big bucks. So I speculated they have some other significant revenue, perhaps out of show's music.

But now Deadline reveals, quote: "Tennessee committed $12.5 million to Nashville for the 2013-14 fiscal year in a package created outside the normal incentive program."
Well, that's another story then, that cuts deficit to $1 million per episode (and if same incentive existed in 2012-13, then Season 1 did very well financially, but they say nothing about it). That amount is much more reasonable to expect being recouped from combined music, small cable network syndication, CD sell, streaming, whatever.

Here comes the catch. In budget for 2014-2015 incentive was cut to only $2 million by the legislature. This way deficit goed up to about $1.5 million per episode (if ratings would hold in Season 3, and it probably won't so it's more likely $1.7 to $1.8 million). With new math, studio wasn't able to give ABC network discount asked (reasonable request considering low ratings). Not without 2 days of hard bargaining.

Rumors now say production probably moves to Austin, Texas. Which is fine for city of Nashville - they get free promotion which Austin pays for.

Spot said...

Do you know the logistics of the Mentalist somehow getting renewed?

Spot said...

It's a simple case. It's in syndication, $2,200,000 per episode, on TNT. That alone pays for some 60% of episode cost. And Mentalist is international hit. I'm serious, that's not like those stupid claims for CW shows (which actually earn peanuts internationally), that's a fact, see here:

Bottom line, Warner Bros TV can give big discount if it wants more episodes. Kinda proof they're giving it for bargain is: Before renewal, it was said WB is shopping it to cable networks, and usually cable network are not willing (or able) to pay as big airing fee as broadcasters.

Spot said...

I agree with the notion that secondary income sources let Warner cut the license fee to make it attractive to CBS, but I suspect the strong international sales matter much more than domestic syndication or TNT (which Warner owns, so its true value was probably factored in rather than its overvalued syndication deal). The show really is huge internationally.

Spot said...

I agree with this. Insight is a tricky thing of course, but looking back it doesn't seem such a huge reach. I think the bigger question is how CBS can possibly schedule all that. I assume they will cut a comedy hour AND hold Undercover Boss AND air at least one of the new dramas on summer AND that's still not enough space. Maybe they'll cut back on a cycle for TAR and timeshare it with The Good Wife? Regardless, I think we will see CBS make more in-season moves than usual.

Spot said...

Man, the cancellation bear had an off year. It usually only has one big miss (Body of Proof, Carrie Diaries), but this year it had 4! Community, The Mentalist, Beauty and the Beast, and Suburgatory!

Spot said...

And Mindy. But to be fair, aren't both Mentalist, and Beauty and the Beast shockers that no one could predict? And other two you're mentioning true bubble shows? And given 51% or more chances by many. In a sense, it was expected networks would renew it for having some veteran backup, instead of banking on newbies for both fall and backup. That is, for scheduling reasons, and despite not good ratings.

Cancellation bear is excellent in prediction of shows with A18-49 target demo. But it doesn't understand not all broadcast shows are targeting that demo. In previous seasons it happened all the shows producing good W18-34 (or M18-34) numbers were hits, only even even bigger hits when considering 18-34. Except for some The CW shows targeting W18-34, and then being "surprisingly" renewed despite low A18-49, life was easy for both professional renew/cancel predictors, and us amateurish ones. This season came big drop of Fox ratings, and that's the network having by the far most 18-34 targetting shows among big 4.

Thus, this turned out to be a bad season for predictions of "by the numbers" type of prediction sites. Those sites still didn't made shift to considering sub-demos (Spot did, but only partially, he's looking unimportant A18-34, instead of important W18-34 and M18-34). In turn, this will look like a good season for those "predictors" from fan service sites, where authors doesn't really understand ratings, but instead are publishing hear-say, and studios' PR as a facts. Those will again have horrible amount of misses, but this season serious sites are having much misses too, so rumor sites won't look as bad as they usually do.

Spot said...

Yes. I can we can look at it this way: If CBS cancelled it (as everyone expected), it would be by cancellation bear rule, to make room for new show. And not because they cannot make profit out of it - as probably WB is offering big discount, which we can conclude from them offering it to cable networks.

However, they renewed it, and picked 6 new dramas, so now it's really hard to read their intentions. My guess is it could be this:
Wed 10 PM: CSI, in February CSI: Cyber (13 episodes)
Sun 10 PM: Mentalist (13 episodes final season), in March remaining CSI episodes
Tue 10 PM: NCIS: NOLA, logical.
Mon 10 PM: Stalker - there's no room on Tue/Wed with my above solutions, and on Thursday it would be only in November
Sun 9 PM - The Good Wife (15 episodes final season), in March Madam Secretary (10 episodes)
Thu 9 PM - comedy block in fall, in midseason Battle Creek (13 episodes) - room created by ordering 13 episodes final season of TAAHM + cancelling some other sitcom.

Scorpion - backup for whichever first fails. If nothing fails, airs in summer.

Spot said...

I have a similar schedule that also involves Battle Creeek and the comedy hour timesharing and Scorpion as backup. But I changed it a bit and I had to cut back on a cycle of TAR.

Something like this:
Monday: 2 Broke Girls/The Odd Couple/Mike and Molly/Mom/NCIS-LA*

Tuesday: NCIS/NCIS New Orleans/POI
Wednesday: Survivor/Criminal Minds/Stalker
Thursday: TBBT/The Millers/Battle Creek/Elementary
Friday: The Mentalist/Hawaii Five-0/Blue Bloods
Sunday: TAR/The Good Wife/CSI

*TBBT launches Odd Couple there before moving to Thursdays once football ends

Monday: Same
Tuesday: Same
Wednesday: Survivor/Criminal Minds/Ciber [Stalker has 13 eps order, a la limited series]
Thursday: TBBT/The Millers/ Two and a Half Men/ The McHarthys/ Elementary [once Battle Creek finishes its 13 eps order, also a la limited series]
Friday: Undercover Boss/Hawaii Five-0/Blue Bloods
Sunday: Madam Secretary/The Good Wife/CSI

Spot said...

NBC's sked was just released.

The Blacklist stays behind The Voice... only to go off-air on November 10 and move to Thursday at 9 after the Super Bowl. The only big surprise is The Mysteries of Laura premiering at 8 on Wednesday. On Thursday, TBL airs at 8, followed by Bad Judge and A-to-Z.

I like that they aren't premiering a million shows in fall, though.

Spot said...

NBC amazingly has a really good schedule this year. The Blacklist moving to Thursdays at 10 should happen, just not right away. Giving it some extra juice from the Voice and Superbowl promotion and airing is a great move

Spot said...

I really like their schedule too but there is one part that concerns me which is State of Affairs. The show will be 1 month hold by December when the voice wraps Season 6. Therefore, putting it on hiatus to return in March wth the voice is not a good idea but neither is airing it on Mondays at 10 in Jauary and February with spackle lead-ins like Hollywood Game Night. The Blacklist was a huge hit and had come off 3 monhts of the voice and fell almost 1 point in January!

Spot said...

I assume NBC plans on launching the Voice's second cycle on February 1st, so State of Affairs should have around 4 episodes after the Voice in the fall, a 6 week break, and a return.

Spot said...

NBC has never had such a short break between voice seasons. You are suggesting 1.5 months break which is very little!

Spot said...

I liked that even though I advocated for Silvio's schedule.

But I may say his quote raised me some flags, but I believe NBC is trying to rebuild on comedy. Eeven though I also advocate for them going full drama, their best options to nuture comedies are Voice and TBL, they moved just 3 shows (one midseason) and I consider the dates the biggest problem, since State of Affairs starts in november and Blacklist takes a 2 month break after airing 8 or nine episodes (if they start one week earlier).

Spot said...

Last year they had to deal with a judge's pregnancy, this year they had to deal with the Olympics. It seens ridiculous to wait until after the Superbowl to air the Voice.

Spot said...

I can see them doing it based on 2011-12 but at the time they used to air just one cycle.

Olympics caused a late february start but it is the right time, since it's ending in late may, but season 2 finished on early may, so, it's possible too.

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