Tuesday, May 20, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 5/20/14: Will Dancing and The Voice Drown Each Other Out?


The last two days of the 2013-14 regular season will feature TV's two biggest head-to-head reality "rivalries" with dueling finales. What makes this kinda interesting is that while these two pairs always battle each other for most/all of their normally-scheduled seasons, they've actually never had overlapping season finales. It starts tonight with two hours of Dancing with the Stars vs. The Voice. Their finales always avoid each other in the fall because the seasons are of different length, and in the spring because NBC's never positioned a Voice season to close right at the end of the regular season... until now. Will Dancing and The Voice drown each other out? That's The Question for Tuesday, May 20, 2014.

The Voice Recent Season Ends Dancing with the Stars Recent Ends
3.8 -> 4.2 -> 4.9 (fall 2012)
3.3 -> 3.7 -> 4.4 (spring 2013)
3.5 -> 3.3 -> 4.0 (fall 2013)
3.0 -> 3.1 (prelim) -> (?) (spring 2014)
2.4 -> 2.7 -> 3.0 (fall 2012)
2.0 -> 2.6 -> 2.7 (spring 2013)
2.0 -> 2.2 -> 2.4 (fall 2013)
2.3 -> 2.5 (prelim) -> (spring 2014)

The above numbers are the last two performance weeks (Monday), then the Tuesday finale.

I was gonna do a spread here, but I decided the more interesting issue in this case is how much they hurt each other collectively. Under normal circumstances, I'd follow the recent year-to-year trends and say The Voice goes about 15% behind last spring's finale (to about a 3.7) while Dancing with the Stars would roughly match last spring's 2.7. But since both have to deal with the other for the first time, that should limit their ability to spike compared to previous seasons; we saw that at play a bit last night as neither grew much for the performance finale. I say it takes the combined total about 5% behind what they'd "normally" do.

Dancing with the Stars PLUS The Voice Over/Under: 6.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. Result is a sum of show finals, each individually rounded to one decimal point.

22 comments:

Spot said...

As if the two singing contests duelling against each other isn't enough, there's the country music "salute to the troops" concert on CBS - I'm not sure how much competition that is, but it's not none, and I'd expect it to damage dead-skewing DWTS.


That said... they only need to gain a cumulative 0.5 (probably less after Monday finals) on the performance finales to cross this line. The Voice has managed that on its own every year, and the 3.1 last night was an against-DWTS number. It can gain a half-point on that even with DWTS competing for the full two hours.


Over.

Spot said...

DWTS-2.7
The Voice-3.6

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over- The Voice ticks .5 (but it normally goes up .7) and DWTS .2


Voice- 3.6
DWTS-2.7


TOTAL- 6.3

Spot said...

Is Survivor vs. Idol going to be a line question or a total one?

Spot said...

Under but for a little 6.0 (3.5+2.5)

Spot said...

Say The Voice got a 3.5, DWTS only needs to go .1 higher than the prelims from today, which I think is perfectly manageable on both accounts. Both shows do their little bit to drag it OVER

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I hope so!

Spot said...

Spread.

Spot said...

The Voice - 3.7
DWTS - 2.5


Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. I deliberately waited for final figures for this one. Upticks to 3.2 and 2.6 make this an easier decision, anything other than at least a 0.2 uptick for each show tomorrow would be a surprise.

Spot said...

Voice: 3.4
Dancing: 2.5
So Under.

Spot said...

After finals, the two combined for 5.8 Monday night. I think Over is a fairly safe bet.


Dancing: 2.9
Voice: 3.7

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

DWTS :2.8
Voice: 3.5

Over

Spot said...

NBC should have ordered an extra episode of Chicago Fire to air after the finale. The Voice could have hurt both American Idol and Dancing at the same time and boost it. Oh well

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Going off the coin again. Coin says over (heads).

And now, because I'm never going to get a better opportunity to post these, here are Dying Fetus' (heavily censored) thoughts on the music industry which spawned The Voice, views I happen to share:

f___ these corporations and their f___ing record stores,
I don't want my f___ing paycheck feeding money whores
these b_st_rds flood the market with their fabricated s__t,
and laugh as this pathetic f___ing music gets them rich...
stay the f___, right out of my life,
I don't need your, f___ing advice,
you don't know what, our s__t is all about,
so don't even try to figure it out,
f___ your spice girls and your f___ing pearl jam,
its all a bunch a s__t, I say, f___ it,
f___ your dave matthews and your f___ing rem,
you god d_mned b__ch, f___ing clueless

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