Monday, May 19, 2014

The Question, Monday 5/19/14: Will An Earlier Premiere Make The Bachelorette Ratings Rosier?


In the last couple years, those pesky Bachelor/ette series have somehow found yet another shot of momentum. The Bachelorette had a solid summer 2012 season. Then The Bachelor grew in 2013 and dropped less than the league average in 2014, even against the Olympics.

There's been only one recent exception to this trend: last summer's The Bachelorette, down 18%. I don't know why for sure, but a big part of it may have been the scheduling. ABC usually gives it a great situation, premiering it directly after the Monday finale of Dancing with the Stars, but they used that slot to preview drama Motive last year. The Bachelorette crashed to a 1.9 premiere on its own the next week (down 27% year-to-year).

This year, its 90-minute premiere is back in the post-DWTS slot, and given the health of the last couple Bachelor seasons, the ratings should be able to rebound. I don't think it quite gets back to its 2.6 premiere from two years ago, or to The Bachelor's 2.7 premiere in January; neither of those faced The Voice at all, and this one at least deals with 30 minutes of it. But it may well be closer to those than to the 1.9 from last summer.

Over/Under: 2.35.

18 comments:

Spot said...

Under (2.3)

Spot said...

I don't think I can confidently back a bump like this - it'd involve topping last week's DWTS number. And sooner or later this franchise has to actually die, right?!?

Under.

Spot said...

Under. 2.2ish is my bet.

Spot said...

Let's hope for the best...
2.5 Over

Spot said...

When Bachelorette premiered behind DWTS two years ago, it retained all of its DWTS lead-in. Other than last Fall's season, there's usually a bump in the finale of DWTS. And with the minimal competition during that 90 minute block, I think there are enough scenarios to guess Over.

Spot said...

Reality TV questions are my nemeses.


Over.

Spot said...

"And sooner or later this franchise has to actually die, right?!?"


I fear that finding true love will die first :) Props to ABC for mining mostly ratings gold out of this high cheese concept. It appears as if this "disconnect-from-reality" show has more lives than the singing competition genre which might have doomed itself to earlier extinction due to cannibalization and taking themselves a bit too seriously.

Spot said...

The Bachelor ended the season pretty strongly, and DWTS should be around a 2.4-2.6. So OVER with a 2.4

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, 2.4

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I will say Over at 2.5.

Spot said...

Over at a 2.4

Spot said...

My gut, which is a coin toss anyway, can't get a bead on this. So I'm doing a literal coin toss.


Under (tails).

Spot said...

ABC's been on a decent streak lately with most shows getting some decent bumps in their penultimate (The Middle, Modern Family) or finale (SHIELD, The Goldbergs, Grey's Anatomy) episodes. And as an added bonus, I'm sure that last night's Billboard Music Awards had a ton of ads for The Bachelorette.


Over.

Spot said...

I've seen countless ads for the Bachelorette but this series usually gets off to slow ratings starts. It'll better benefit this year than last year because of the DWTS boost but not by much. I choose the Under.

Spot said...

Under.

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