Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/6/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox's embattled live-action comedy department is officially closed for the season with the upticking finales of New Girl (1.2) and The Mindy Project (1.3). The latter ended up with its first-ever growth from an original of the former, and it was easily Mindy's biggest rating since its return from hiatus in April. New Girl reportedly has the larger order of the two for next season (22 vs. 15), but the momentum seems to be moving in the other direction in these last few weeks. (Just look at the finales' year-to-year trends; New Girl was -43%, Mindy even.)
  • Perhaps owing in part to Fox's uptick, there was major comedy carnage on the other two networks; The Goldbergs (1.3), Trophy Wife (0.7), About a Boy (1.5) and Growing Up Fisher (1.2) all hit new lows. It was not a good final impression for the NBC shows heading into the upfront, to say the least, though they got no help from an also particularly weak The Voice (2.5) at 8/7c.
  • In drama land, NCIS (2.3) gave back some of last week's rebound, and Agents of SHIELD (1.9) adjusted off the tie-series low but was still down week-to-week. Glee (0.8) was not so lucky, notching yet another new low. And at 10/9c, an unusually impressive Chicago Fire (1.9) thumped Person of Interest (1.7).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 1.9 45% -10%-0.2n/a 18/21 n/a -7% +90% 2.3
The Goldbergs 1.3 40% -24%-0.4-0.2 22/22 n/a -24% -24% 1.4
Trophy Wife 0.7 36% -30%-0.3-0.4 21/21 n/a -30% -59% 0.8
Celebrity Wife Swap 0.9 40% +13%+0.1-0.3 2/4 n/a +6% -36% 1.2
ABC:-11%-7%
NCIS 2.3 18% -8%-0.2n/a 22/23 -26% -10% -26% 2.8
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.2 20% +5%+0.1-0.2 20/23 -8% +5% -8% 2.2
Person of Interest 1.7 21% -11%-0.2+0.1 20/22 -29% -11% +42% 1.8
CBS:-5%-7%
The Voice Tue 2.5 30% -7%-0.2n/a 11/11 -23% -9% -32% 3.0
About a Boy 1.5 32% -6%-0.1-0.2 11/11 n/a -6% -59% 1.4
Growing Up Fisher 1.2 30% -14%-0.2-0.1 11/11 n/a -14% -68% 1.3
Chicago Fire 1.9 35% +6%+0.1-0.2 11/21 +6% +9% +6% 2.3
NBC:-4%-38%
Glee 0.8 48% -11%-0.1n/a 19/19 -60% -6% -58% 1.0
New Girl 1.2 63% +9%+0.1-0.1 19/22 -43% +9% -43% 1.6
The Mindy Project 1.3 67% +18%+0.2+0.1 10/22 +0% +18% +0% 1.5
Fox:+5%-43%
The Originals 0.6 53% -25%-0.2n/a 20/21 n/a -29% +20% 0.8
Supernatural 0.8 64% -20%-0.2-0.2 20/21 -20% -16% +300% 0.9
CW:-22%+100%
Big5:-7%-21%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

6 comments:

Spot said...

I agree Sunday idea is interesting. But Paul Lee really wasn't receptive for out of the box ideas. I mean, scheduling wise. Not for picking the shows, in that department he had WTF moments more than all other network bosses combined.

Spot said...

Yes. It wasn't a bad schedule. It just had too much moves, and too little new shows.

Spot said...

"Should" and "will" is very different on Paul Lee's network, but here goes my stab at the former.

MON: 8 DWTS, 10 new procedural. This isn't the place for Castle anymore. DWTS is still, somehow, a good platform for the right newbie.
TUE: 8 Goldbergs, 8:30 new comedy, 9 SHIELD, 10 Agent Carter. Flipping the first two hours gives Carter a clear platform from which to bail out one of ABC's zero hours, and gets both comedies and SHIELD into better competitive situations unless NBC decides to go TBL/Voice/Dick Wolf in the fall again.
WED: 8 The Middle, 8:30 Suburgatory, 9 Modern Family, 9:30 Galavant, 10 Castle. ABC might be reckless going for hangout comedies after MF, but they're right to go for *splashy* comedies after MF, and Galavant is the latter and not the former. If it fails, Castle won't be hurt much.
THU: 8 Grey's, 9 Murder, 10 Scandal. Shonda night is hard to argue with, and it'll probably rocket out of the gate with CBS out of the scripted picture until November and the other two networks likely imploding on the night. And that's the other zero hour sorted.
FRI: 8 LMS, 8:30 new multicam, 9 Shark Tank, 10 20:20. Don't mess with success if there's no clear reason to.
SUN: 7 AFV, 8 OUAT, 9 Resurrection, 10 Revenge. This can stick for now, too.

Spot said...

Mondays - yes, time to move Castle to improve the network's average, it could go to tuesdays at 10, also, they could go Bachelor/DWTS/Bachelor, but DWTS has been steady, so I think it may not be the best option


Tuedays - comedies at 8, maybe two new, maybe Goldbergs (but I would place it on wednesdays), SHIELD at 9 (Agent Carter during the winter break), Castle at 10.


Wednesdays - how ABC didn't realise that The Goldbergs was perfect for The Middle and Trophy Wife for Modern Family still amuses me, they weakened their block so much that now they must rebuild it, my lineup would be Middle/Goldbergs/Modern Family/best comedy pilot (preference for family comedies, party comedies have been rejected by MF viewers) and a new drama (Secret and Lies or American Crime)


Thursdays- Murder goes at 9, I defended Scandal moving because its numbers are too huge to be wasted on local news, but they could mess with it, 9 PM is weaker than ever with CBS comedies dropping and FOX and NBC being non-factors, good place for Scandal, but better for a new drama, Grey's solves the 8 PM mess.


Fridays - LMS is going to be there, they wouldn't place on a regular day, it is not going to gain steam, but they can't cancel, so, I would go Cristela (which appears to be ABC's strongest multicam) + LMS + Shark Tank, unfortunatelly, a reality leading to Tank will be a plan for 2015.


Sundays - don't change anything


Can't wait for Paul Lee's picks

Spot said...

Dateline Saturday Night Mysteries on NBC continues to impress me

Spot said...

With ABC pickups finished, my final mock schedule.

I'd like to see Agent Carter at Mon 10 PM, but I'm pretty much sure it's limited order for airing between two half-seasons of S.H.I.E.L.D. Then I suppose it's Forever (from description it sounds terrible, like Body of Proof meets Vampire Diaries) as the only new drama not looking serialized. I think so, but I might be wrong about it.

That leaves The Whispers (Falling Skies 2) or American Crime for Wednesday (other new dramas I see being specifically picked for midseason premiere). American Crime was among first pickups, and looks more on brand, so...
With Nashville renewal, Resurrection is pushed from fall schedule. Because other renewed dramas are likely 22 episodes order, and Resurrection authors want shorter seasons anyway. They got what they want.

Paul Lee's annual WTF pick Galavant I'd put on Tuesday, there it will be the least damaging.
11th hour renewal of Last Man Standing in package with 2 multi-cam pickups means they plan Friday multi-cam block during entire season.
I suppose family comedy Black-ish goes to earlier 8:30 PM, so Selfie gets MF lead-in. But it might be the other way around.

Mon: Dancing with the Stars / Forever
Tue: S.H.I.E.L.D / Galavant / The Goldbergs / Castle
Wed: The Middle / Black-ish / Modern Family / Selfie / American Crime
Thu: Grey's Anatomy / How To Get Away With Murder / Scandal
Fri: Last Man Standing / Cristela / Shark Tank / 20/20
Sun: AFHV / Once Upon a Time / Nashville / Revenge

late fall -or- winter
The Whispers - in slot of whichever fails first
Resurrection - in slot of whichever fails second
Tue 9 PM - Marvel’s ‘Agent Carter’ followed by S.H.I.E.L.D again
Bachelor at Monday as always

3 bench dramas
The Astronaut Wives Club (pushed from this summer to midseason 2015)
‘Secrets & Lies’ (mini, 10 episodes)
? The Club - this order straight to series might be cancelled now that they renewed Nashville

2 bench comedies
Manhattan Love Story, Fresh off the Boat

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