Wednesday, May 28, 2014

War of 18-49 Update, The Voice (Spring 2014)

Let's take a look at the spring 2014 season (the sixth overall) of The Voice on NBC.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Monday 8:003.0 3.554.7 -14%189big hit -4% detail
Tuesday 8:002.5 3.184.1 -16%169big hit -6%

Rating the Ratings: How healthy/unhealthy is TV's #1 reality show? Because this season started at a different time than last season, it's not that simple to unpack the answer. When comparing its April/May episodes with the April/May episodes from a year ago, as many did when those ratings were coming in, it looked like an almost American Idol-esque collapse. But that wasn't a fair comparison because it was several weeks farther into the season than last year, and the part of the season is so key with these singing shows. On the other hand, the final trend of -14%/-16% is probably too generous, since this season didn't have to deal with the further plummets in overall viewing that come in June. Even if you take those numbers at face value, it's the first season to decline in Plus on both nights.

There's also the resurgence of competitor Dancing with the Stars to consider, and its effect on both the season as a whole and the soft 3.3 finale rating. It's kind of a chicken/egg thing, since some of the DWTS comeback may be about The Voice's softening, but DWTS was up more in Plus than Voice was down. Being down 4%/6% relative to the league average is far from a catastrophe, but we'll again head into the fall wondering if The Voice has peaked. It's not an Idol-esque tailspin (yet), but there are warning signs. Grade: C.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for The Voice.

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