Friday, May 2, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/1/14

  • Week two wasn't kind to last week's newbies; Bad Teacher (1.4) almost certainly fell completely out of the conversation with a 33% week-to-week drop. It was a bad night for CBS in general, with The Millers (2.0) plummeting to its worst-ever retention out of The Big Bang Theory (4.5). This was also an outright low, dipping below its performance on Halloween following a repeat! And Two and a Half Men (2.1) did by far its worst number since the move to 9:00.
  • The other week two, ABC's Black Box (1.3), was down 13% even as Grey's Anatomy (2.6) bounced back by the same percent for Isaiah Washington's return.
  • The other development of note was NBC actually having one of its best Thursdays of the season with the iHeartRadio Music Awards (1.7). This may have taken a bit of a toll on some of the competition, but no one more than a dive-bombing American Idol (1.5).


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy (R) 1.0 30% +67% -13% 1.3
Grey's Anatomy 2.6 37% +13%+0.3+0.4 10/21 -13% +11% -13% 3.2
Black Box 1.3 29% -13%-0.2+0.3 2/2 n/a -13% -50% 1.4
The Big Bang Theory 4.5 36% +0%+0.0n/a 21/22 -8% +2% -8% 5.3
The Millers 2.0 27% -17%-0.4+0.0 21/21 n/a -17% -38% 2.0
Two and a Half Men 2.1 30% -16%-0.4-0.4 14/21 -34% -16% -19% 2.4
Bad Teacher 1.4 27% -33%-0.7-0.4 2/2 n/a -33% -39% 1.5
Elementary 1.6 26% +0%+0.0-0.7 16/22 -20% +0% -20% 1.8
iHeartRadio Music Awards 1.7 39% n/a +73% +20% 2.1
Hell's Kitchen 1.6 45% -6%-0.1n/a 7/8 -20% -6% -38% 2.0
American Idol Thu 1.5 27% -17%-0.3-0.1 16/16 -42% -17% -25% 2.0
Surviving Jack 1.0 32% +0%+0.0-0.3 4/6 n/a +0% -41% 1.2
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 55% +0%+0.0n/a 17/20 -20% +0% -20% 1.0
Reign 0.5 45% +0%+0.0+0.0 15/20 n/a +0% +11% 0.6

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

What in the world are they going to do with Idol next season? Is there some way it can do well enough to not be the final season? I don't really imagine that moving to another night would help. Having only one night a week like Dancing *might* though the perf nights have been getting sub-2s already too.
Though I suppose the rest of Fox failing could be helpful for Idol...

Spot said...

I predict Idol to end in 2016 by comparing its bleeding with its scripted version aka Glee (whose seasons 3, 4, 5 and 6 would be Idol's S12, 13, 14 and 15).

But now I may say it could end next season, unscripted is cheaper than scripted (and FOX scripted shows barely crack a 1.5 now) but Idol is more expensive than the normal unscripted show.

Curious to see The Millers' True numbers, it finished 21st despite being 7th on A18-49, now it may not crack the top 25, following what happens to Voice-boosted NBC comedies.

Spot said...

iHeart Radio Specials were getting .2-.3's on the CW. What a jump. I was expecting it to do like the Rhianna special last year

Spot said...

I remember making the joke "as if CW numbers on Thursday wasn't enough, now NBC are actually putting CW programming there" when that got scheduled.

If you'd told me at the time that it would beat Idol NBC execs would have heard my laugh from across the Atlantic. And it's happened.

Late season Idol now a below league average show. The end is nigh. Has it even been renewed for 2015 yet?

Spot said...

Could FOX conceivably cancel both X-Factor and Idol in the same year? That would be 30% of their line-up gone if they did it. What's going on, anyways? It premiered in the high-4s, than immediately fell to around a 4.0. It held there for a couple of weeks, then BOOM! Dropped half a point the next week. BOOM! Another seven tenths gone the next. Forget cracking a 3.0 for the finale. If it keeps going like this, it'll be lucky to crack 2.5.

Slightly unrelated: Spot, are you going to do a War post for X-Factor? I know that you normally wait until after the fourth season, but...

Spot said...

I doubt that Fox cancels American Idol this season. There was a lot of press made about keeping Ryan Seacrest in the fold since his contracts at Fox and NBCU are coming up; why let it make noise if Idol's about to be canceled? Plus it's been so important to the network that any final season is going to be announced ahead of time for a season-long send off.

Spot said...

I think the Olympics (which it was facing in those two "BOOM!" weeks you mentioned) accelerated the decline somewhat. Not that it would really have changed the narrative that much, but it'd likely be doing a little better if there were no Olympics. It is a "serialized" show in some sense, so some of the people who dropped off due to Olympics never came back.

Not sure about X Factor War post, but if nothing else you can get the Plus numbers on the Fox Wed. Schedules Plus post: I'll be updating all of those this summer.

Spot said...

A War X Factor post would be great. I'm also looking forward to the eventual War of 18-49 New Girl post for similar reasons.

Spot said...

Well, Bad Teacher is dead. I think it's now 50/50 as to whether FWBL gets renewed.

The iHeartRadio special overperformed expectations, especially since NBC probably got it for nothing.

Spot said...

As ways of justifying the ridiculous spend on Sochi 2014 (which I believe was loss-making for NBC) go, "killing a rival network's #1 show" isn't a bad one.

CBS and ABC should send them a few dollars as a thank-you. ;)

Spot said...

It's going to worth waiting until 2015 (Game of Thrones too). Idol and Glee updates will be interesting too.

Which shows are predicted to get a post this year? Mike and Molly, The Walking Dead and Hawaii Five-O?

Spot said...

It's not like American Idol just dropped overnight but it is still breathtaking recalling it's salad days where the combined ratings of the competition didn't even come close to Idol's ratings vs. the present where it looks like a sliver of a shadow of its former self.

Spot said...

Sochi actual made profit to NBC Universal. Deadline reported about it few weeks ago.

NBC broadcast = $840 million revenue
NBCU cable networks = $260 million revenue
license = $775 million
plus production costs & promotion = who knows, Deadline says nothing about it, but let's say it's $200 million

= some $100 million and change of profit

Spot said...

Blue Bloods and Raising Hope.

Spot said...

CBS and ABC probably aren't too happy they had to sit out half of sweeps or risk their own ratings (not that that really seems to have helped in some cases).

Spot said...

So, yeah, the predictable rank-and-file declines for the late-season detritus. But seriously, ABC, why do you keep trying? Remember when everyone thought Killer Women was their creative nadir? Who would've thought that at least three even worse shows were still waiting in the wings.

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