Monday, May 5, 2014

The Question, Monday 5/5/14: Can 24's Return Help Fox Live Another Day?


24's eight-season run in the aughts changed television, but it was never the truly massive series in the Nielsens that you might think. And while it didn't collapse to flop levels by the end, the series finale in May 2010 managed just a 2.8 demo rating. That would translate to just under a 2.0 if adjusted to the landscape of today!

Can the show's much-anticipated return four years later be even bigger than what 24 once was? For the full season, that'll be tough. But tonight's two-hour premiere may be enough of a mega-promoted, nostalgia-driven event that its ratings will keep the door open to that possibility. I'm defaulting to the low-3's level that is typical of strong Fox Monday drama launches in recent years, but I wouldn't be shocked to miss by a lot in either direction.

Over/Under (8:00-10:00): 3.15.

25 comments:

Spot said...

You know what? Why not? Over at 4.2.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

3.15 seems to high for me, it would beat both Voice and DWTS (even though it is good counter-programming).


Under.

Spot said...

Under

Shot in the dark, as I'm relying purely on Fox ratings collapse this season.

Spot said...

I'm going under. The Fox collaps and doing better than Voice seems unlikely.

Spot said...

1.75 (UNDER)

Spot said...

I think it could go at the most 20% in either direction. Between 2.5 and 3.8. If it was just 9:00 o'clock I would say over is almost guaranteed. I'm not confident with 2 hours, but over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

This is pretty hard considering it is highly anticiapted but it is also going up against CBS comedies, DWTS and The Voice. But FOX is also doing horrible currently. But I'm gonna say over.

Spot said...

I think there are two reasons Fox dramas tend to launch better on Mondays: the shows are a simple, high-concept premise (but not so simple that it's summed up in the title. Looking at you, The Mob Doctor) and the high HUT levels on the night in general means there are extra eyes willing to watch something. So the 3's are certainly doable, and clearly Spot wanted to give himself a piece of that possibility in the spread. Fox has been pushing this show for months because the network's summer pretty much boils down to Jack Bauer and Gordon Ramsey. Let's hope the big bet pays off.

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

UNDER.


2.2

Spot said...

Under, mainly because it's hard to be overly optimistic about Fox at the moment.

Spot said...

Over 3.15.

Spot said...

How many people have watched FOX lately? Not many.

How many people even needed to in order to know this was coming? Even fewer.

If this season has taught us anything, it's that event television - everything from sports to the HIMYM finale to The Sound of Music Live - is capable of transcending any conventional ratings "reality." I'm not prepared to bet against that, so OVER.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I'm not really feeling the external hype on this one. I'm going under.

Spot said...

I think this is the hardest line from the entire season as it could do a 2.0 and a 4.0 and I wouldn't be shocked either way. My gut is screaming both ways so no help there. A very random over!

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

At first, 3.15 seemed too high, but rethinking about it, I just remembered that unknown properties like Sleepy Hollow and Ressurection started above that line... so I'd like to change it to Over.


But I really have no idea where this will land at all. :|

Spot said...

Fox was smart promoting "24" especially during the Super Bowl and the NBA playoffs on cable.

I predict the Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under (2.6-2.7)

Spot said...

Over at a 3.4- look what Fear Factor did with not that much promotion in December- nostalgia is big

Spot said...

Over

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