Tuesday, May 27, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 5/27/14: Will Got Talent and The Night Shift Get Ratings?


Tonight NBC unveils what will likely be one of the summer's top three-hour primetime lineups. Two hours of America's Got Talent are the main reason for that; that show would make for a top summer lineup even with a test pattern at 10/9c. However, NBC will get at least a little more than that out of new medical drama The Night Shift. Though it was not originally earmarked for the summer, this timeslot and a decent promo push make it feel like less of a burn-off than NBC's other scripted premieres this week. And it feels like a better match with the older-skewing Got Talent audience than, say, Gang Related with Hell's Kitchen. Some of those viewers may passively stick around for this.

Got Talent premiered to a 3.1 last season, and an average-ish drop to upper-2's seems like a reasonable expectation. I think The Night Shift will appeal enough to the Got Talent crowd to hit roughly the same number as NBC's post-Got Talent drama premiere from last summer, Camp (1.5 on 7/10/13).

America's Got Talent PLUS The Night Shift Over/Under: 4.25.

28 comments:

Spot said...

I know it's only been a week or two, but it seems like everything that's premiered this summer has disappointed. So, I'll stick with the trend and say under.

Random observation: all of NBC's publicity materials make The Night Shift's lead look like a total douche.

Spot said...

Last season, America's Got Talent got a few weeks of The Voice as a lead-in. It gets no such luxury this time around. And I don't think The Night Shift will retain enough to make up the difference.

Under.

Spot said...

I feel like both shows would have to fully pull their weight without any leeway and I doubt that'll happen. Under

Spot said...

Undies. (AGT=1.9) + (NS=1.3) = 3.2

Spot said...

Under 4.25
AGT: (2.81) + Night Shift (1.40) = 4.21

Spot said...

It's the House-ification of doctors. They must be flawed. They must be renegades. Above all, they must have a love interest that they work with. It makes it hard to really get into a new show when so much of it feels derivative.

Spot said...

Singing shows are dying, Got Talent is a singing show half the time, and Night Shift is a burnoff. Under, and it won't be close.

Spot said...

I'm done giving shows the benefit of the doubt. I'm expecting a slow start for AGT and


AGT: 2.5
TNS: 1.1


Under at 3.6

Spot said...

The cliches are terminal but it would take more than flat-lining ratings for NBC to pull the life support on this summer's "Bad Doctor".

Spot said...

It might have a shot. Grey's Anatomy was the only medical drama on TV last season. Last year broadcast had Grey's, Body of Proof, Private Practice, and Emily Owens, M.D.
The genre is the least saturated its been since ER started. I'll be optimistic, OVER

Spot said...

Under


AGT 2.3
TNS 1.3


Total 3.6

Spot said...

America's Got Talent-2.7
Night Shift-1.7


Over.

Spot said...

Got Talent: 2.8
The Night Shift: 1.5
I don't wanna say over, though. I'll go under because I expect one of these to underperform, I just don't know which. Yes, I know this is stupid.

Spot said...

A big fat under. Night Shift only has hot guys in a hospital, and a 0% RT score going for it.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Tough call here, reviews have been poor but as 2 Broke Girls showed, lead-in power is something that has to be taken into account.

AGT premiered to a 3.1 last season, but its first three episodes had The Voice either before or after it. Without Voice, it dropped to mid 2s and stayed there. I bet it gets a 2.8.

Last year Camp (which was rejected too) got a 1.5 out of a 2.8 AGT (the first on wednesdays), 54% retention, I expect Night Shift's retention to be lower, I'm going with a 1.3 (after a preliminar 1.4) due to the tuneout.



I can take into account that NBC is a stronger network which would bring some casuals, but I expect one of them (maybe both) to underperform.


But 2.8 + 1.3 = 4.1 is enough to pick under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

AGT: 2.8
NS: 1.8

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

UNDER.

2.4 for America's Got Talent
1.3 for The Night Shift

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over to go against the crowd.

Spot said...

Under.

I was thinking something like 2.7 for AGT and then The Night Shift would have to score a 1.6. That seems to be somewhat high for a summer burnoff.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'm going under, mostly on the concept of Night Shift flopping cause of those stupid promos.

Spot said...

With all the lower premiers lately, I'll go with under.

Spot said...

Under. AGT around 2.6, but massive tuneout for Night Shift.

Spot said...

Hooray at winning in the minority.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.