Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/5/14

  • Does absence make the heart grow fonder? The answer in this case seems to be: maybe a little bit, at most. 24 returned from a four-year TV absence with 8.08 million viewers and a 2.6 demo rating, which (after adjusting for those four years of collective decline) is a bit better than the 2.8/2.9 that was its norm in 2010. But it's definitely no better than the 3.9 that kicked off the last season in January 2010. If the show can hold close to this, it could still end up looking like a pretty big star by modern Fox standards, and maybe even one of the top shows of the summer. But this was definitely not one of those Nielsen-rocking TV events.
  • If 24 was good for anything, it was its apparent demolition of some of the competition, as it improved its timeslot by 117% week-to-week. Dancing with the Stars (1.9) took a particularly staggering drop, shedding over a quarter of that amazing season high from a week ago. And the CBS comedies 2 Broke Girls (1.9), Friends with Better Lives (1.6) and Mike and Molly (1.8) were also damaged by double digits in what may have been an important week for FWBL. By those standards, NBC's The Voice (3.0) and The Blacklist (2.7) emerging totally unscathed looks like a win.
  • Cable: Louie (0.50/0.51) returned with numbers ahead of most episodes from its previous season in 2012, but down a couple ticks from the Anger Management-inflated premiere in 2012. Bates Motel (0.91) wrapped up a -21% season two with no finale bounce, going -22% year-to-year on finale night.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 1.9 18% -27%-0.7n/a 8/8 -5% -27% -3% 2.2
Castle 1.6 23% -20%-0.4-0.7 21/22 -20% -20% -22% 1.8
2 Broke Girls 2.0 39% -13%-0.3n/a 24/24 -26% -13% -23% 2.2
Friends with Better Lives 1.6 41% -16%-0.3-0.3 5/5 n/a -16% -24% 1.7
Mike and Molly 1.7 33% -23%-0.5-0.3 20/20 -26% -23% -37% 2.1
Mom (R) 1.2 32% -29% -48% 1.4
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) 0.7 23% -13% -63% 0.9
The Voice Mon 3.0 35% +0%+0.0n/a 9/11 -27% +0% -25% 3.4
The Blacklist 2.7 33% +0%+0.0+0.0 15/21 n/a +0% +35% 2.7
24: Live Another Day 2.6 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +117% +271% 3.0
Star-Crossed 0.3 44% +0%+0.0n/a 4/12 n/a +0% +20% 0.4
The Tomorrow People 0.4 50% +0%+0.0+0.0 16/22 n/a +0% +33% 0.5
Bates Motel 0.91 50% -2%-0.02
5/10 -22%

Louie (10:30) 0.51 72% +3%+0.01
1/2 n/a

Louie (10:00) 0.50 67% n/an/a
1/1 n/a

Warehouse 13 0.26 36% -27%-0.10
4/4 -29%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Apparantly Jack Bauer fans watch celebrities ballroom dance in their spare time. Who'd a thunk, huh?

Spot said...

Looks like Dancing pulled a Modern Family. Inexplicable massive drop after a very promising data point the week before

Spot said...

I thought it'd be slightly higher, but below 3 nonetheless. I don't really hear anyone talk about 24 in a nostalgic way they do about, say, Sopranos.

Spot said...

This 2.5 for "24" can actually be labeled "good compared to the rest of Fox lineup." I mean, it should stabilize at around 1.8, maybe even 2.0 considering other networks are soon to enter summer schedule mode. Around 2.0 average is nowadays enough to be top 5 Fox scripted option.

How the mighty have fallen. High 1s are now good for Fox, and just a year ago they considered any sub-2 ratings bad (except for the very cheap Ramsey shows). Two years ago? Fox would call it a disaster. Internally, at least.

Spot said...

DWTS going from a season high to a low, WTF.

24 may finish only behind Sleepy Hollow, Family Guy and Simpsons on FOX, unless it colpases..

Spot said...

Oh, *now* I start going over on The Question.

Spot said...

I said top 5 scripted option in my comment, because I still count New Girl as elite. NG will still finish above 2.0 average in W18-34, and advertisers pay for that demo, trust me.

Power rankings at the regular season end should be similar to this:
2.9 M18-34 Family Guy
2.6 A18-49 Sleepy Hollow
2.5 M18-34 The Simpsons
2.2 W18-34 New Girl
1.9 W18-34 Mindy
1.8 A18-49 Bones (Monday only)
1.7 W18-34 Glee
1.6 M18-34 Bob's Burgers
1.56 A18-49 The Following (excl. out of timeslot Premiere)
followed by dunzos

Spot said...

Pending usual Monday adjustments up, each broadcast half-hour is at only +/- 1 tenth w2w, and +/- 2 tenths compared to 2 weeks ago.
Then there's same pie, but each network took different slice this time around.

Fox is up 1.3 rating points compared to week ago, and +1.1 compared to two weeks ago (last time they aired all originals on Monday).

CBS is down 0.3 from both week ago, and 2 weeks ago. But important 8:00-9:30PM portion of schedule is down only 1 tenth from 2 weeks ago, and 3 tenths w2w. Perhaps last Monday CBS simply was helped by Bones being in repeat .

ABC is whopping 0.6 down from last week. But it's only 0.2 down from 2.0 average A18-49 from 2 weeks ago Monday. Then last Monday ABC was inflated because... I have no idea why.

NBC is only stable, 3rd Monday in a row at average 2.9 A18-49. Respect.

Spot said...

I am far from one to go to the defense of 2 Broke Girls, but it did hit a series low at the time for its season 1 finale. It did grow in the season 2 one, but that was the big Mother reveal night where HIMYM skyrocketed 30% and its lead in was Big Bang repeat instead of Rules of Engagement.
I guess this probably removes the + sign on Dancing with the Stars season average.
I think 24: Live Another Day might be able to stay consistent. The Voice is leaving soon to make room for weaker Ninja Warrior and Masterchef is a super solid lead in. ABC will be skewing the opposite direction with Bachelorette, and CBS will go from mostly repeats to all repeats. Still, it will have to deal with Memorial Day and the first Monday after the 4th of July that might hurt it. Currently, I'm saving a 2.17 average over 12 episodes (the premiere counting as 2). .

Spot said...

Masterchef be a solid lead in to try to help collapse, but as I mentioned above, Memorial Day will be a big hurt and probably the Monday after the 4th, but since the 4th is on a Friday this year, probably not too bad.

Spot said...

I kinda foresaw it. Dancing feels like a conservative show, to be honest.

Spot said...

Other sources indicate last night had a season low PUT in addition to increased competition from Fox, so...

Spot said...

Well, that's why I try to do gut calls. Although so far, that's been a coin toss. But hey, I got that good feel last night that the external buzz wasn't going to carry 24 to Spot's line.

Spot said...

NBC and CBS had same conditions, yet NBC was flat, and CBS down, but very near to ratings from 2 weeks ago before last week's spike, so..

Spot said...

But look at the skews, 18% and 41% are massively different skews! Not something I was expecting at least. Still amazing how last year this premiere would have been -7% from the Following's finale and now is up 73% in comparison. I believe its Fox's best drama rating completely in primetime since November

Spot said...

TVMoJoe just published stuff he learned over lunch with Kevin Reilly

- Reilly said "Utopia could start out [airing] two times a week when it
debuts". That's followed by Adalian's speculation: "debuts probably in
late summer, though nothing’s been announced".

Sleepy Hollow 15
to 18 episodes. "Those will air all in a row. There will be no
preemptions [except maybe] one over the World Series or a holiday."

Mindy's order is 15. (Initially, but obviously more only if new sitcoms bomb).

New Girl 22 episodes order.

not April's fool ... Dads renewal not sure thing, but likely. "Seth
MacFarlane ... just top talent willing to do multi-camera, and I want
to keep playing in that water. And that’s something we’ve got to do. "

Spot said...

I doubt it would collapse later in the season, to like 1.5 or lower. But I also doubt it remains near that 2.6 premiere.

On a side note, it has some reserves in females demos. I saw some ratings (on Twitter, so I don't know if those are preliminary or final).
"24" did bad in W18-49 (2.1) and lousy in W18-34 (1.4) vs deadly The Voice (2.7 W18-34) / DWTS (2.2 W18-34) / Love & Hip Hop Atlanta (3.3 W18-34 for yesterday's season premiere) combo.
But M18-49 (3.0) and M18-34 (2.8) ratings are very encouraging.

My point being, natural drop of ratings over course of the season of heavily serialized show might be partially compensated with strong, female oriented shows (he Voice and DWTS) getting out of the picture soon. Just may, those viewers would need to catch up on DVR or other way. And be interested in watching very different kind of animal in the first place.

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