Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/13/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • How do you give a new series launch the least possible media coverage? Premiere it during upfront week. How do you give it the least possible lead-in support? Put it after Glee. Throw in the show's total lack of inherent appeal and you get a 0.5 rating for the premiere of summer improv comedy show Riot. The only silver lining is that it might be able to get some "momentum" since its lead-in will improve with American Idol's performance finale next week. Arguably even more egregious was Glee dive-bombing to 0.6 in its penultimate season finale. Fox is still figuring out the "right" number of episodes for Glee's final season, but that number is pretty clearly zero. If you're keeping score at home, this was seventy percent below last year's finale (2.0).
  • Most of the shows on other networks are eyeing week-to-week increases in their season finales.
    • CBS seemed to fare best with NCIS (2.6), the final Tuesday edition of NCIS: Los Angeles (2.5) and Person of Interest (1.9) all up by multiple ticks;
    • The last two About a Boy episodes (1.6/1.5) each improved their slots after last week's terrible numbers;
    • ABC's Agents of SHIELD got it usual adjustment and thus inched up week-to-week, while the comedies were each up two;
    • And the CW lost some steam in finals due to a New York city pre-emption but still had a nice two-tenth rebound for The Originals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 2.0 47% +5%+0.1n/a 17/22 n/a +3% +74% 2.5
The Goldbergs 1.5 45% +15%+0.2+0.1 15/23 n/a +15% -12% 1.5
Trophy Wife 0.9 40% +29%+0.2+0.2 16/22 n/a +29% -50% 0.9
Celebrity Wife Swap 0.9 41% +0%+0.0+0.2 2/5 n/a -5% -36% 1.1
ABC:+5%-5%
NCIS 2.6 19% +13%+0.3n/a 15/24 -24% +13% -24% 3.2
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.5 21% +14%+0.3+0.3 7/24 +0% +14% -2% 2.3
Person of Interest 1.9 22% +12%+0.2+0.3 14/23 -21% +12% +58% 1.9
CBS:+13%-2%
The Voice Tue 2.6 30% +4%+0.1n/a 11/12 -26% +4% +30% 3.2
About a Boy 1.6 32% +7%+0.1+0.1 10/12 n/a +7% -54% 1.4
About a Boy 1.5 34% -6%-0.1-1.0 12/13 n/a +25% -57% 1.5
Chicago Fire 1.9 34% +0%+0.0+0.3 11/22 -5% +3% +9% 2.1
NBC:+6%-17%
Glee 0.6 41% -25%-0.2n/a 20/20 -70% -25% -69% 0.8
Riot 0.5 47% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -60% -71% 0.7
Fox:-46%-70%
The Originals 0.8 58% +33%+0.2n/a 14/22 n/a +33% +167% 1.0
Supernatural 0.8 58% +0%+0.0+0.2 20/22 -20% +0% +167% 0.8
CW:+14%+167%
Big5:+1%-15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

17 comments:

Spot said...

I thought Glee felt quite like a series finale. There are still stories open to be explored but the final performance would've been a perfect way to close up shop. Even as a fan (more in the early days) I kinda wish they'd find some other way to keep Ryan Murphy happy without having to give him even six episodes.

Spot said...

Early in year 2014., S.H.I.E.L.D. ratings disappointed me to the level I called it a failure. Over first 4 episodes after hollidays, it averaged 2.1 (both in raw and True numbers). Now, with normal 10% drop in 2nd season it would be 1.90, and with only a bit of sophomore slump, like double more of drop, it would make it, for so much promoted show, really ugly 1.7. Barely better than current low rated season of Nashville.

However, in remaining 8 episodes average was 2.0 A18-49. Looks low, but True average is 2.37 True (without last night's episode, but it obviously won't change average much), so it held very well in post-DST 8 PM environment, and True recognized it. Then I must change my assessment. Now 3rd season is very likely, and as 66 episodes practically always mean 4th season - it's kinda hit show. Not in terms of ratings. What I mean is, I mind if network calls own show a hit after it aired 3 episodes. But if something reaches 88 episodes, then they have every right to call it a hit series, these days it's so hard to reach it.

Spot said...

I honestly thought Riot was a drama. Great promotion FOX!

Spot said...

I thought it was breaking news from some prison interrupting regular program. I would, if I ever heard about Riot.

Spot said...

With this low finale number, I wouldn't even want Glee as summer filler in 2014-2015. Do a two-hour series finale movie "event" or cast the live version of Grease with Glee cast members and call that the end. Anything to only have the pain felt in one week will do.

Spot said...

Best two-season renewal evah!

Spot said...

It's not so simple as it looks to you. Ryan Murphy created big hit Glee, then with American Horror Show he proved it wasn't just a lucky punch. Therefore, Reilly cannot just say to him: "If you want your 22 episodes so much, go and shoot it. We'll burn it off on summer Saturdays." Every network, including Fox, wants to work with Murphy now. And, if they're not careful, Fox could slip from the top of Murphy's list (where they're thanks to good cooperation on Glee) right to the bottom.

Another interesting point is Reilly said they're going to sit down and talk with Murphy about trimming episode count. With Murphy, not with 20th Century Fox. It probably means studio is OK with short order. 20th Century Fox didn't exactly fought tooth and nail for Glee to be in fall schedule, like, for example, Lionsgate did for Nashville. Understandable, Glee is syndicated on a relatively small network (Oxygen), and music sales are likely on same downward spiral as TV ratings are. If ratings would stay this low (and likely they would), probably Glee would actually make loss (doesn't really matter if to studio, or to sibling network Fox, or to both).

Now, Fox is obviously willing to pay some penalty for downsizing order. I mean, Reilly said they want to "sit down and talk", that's it. Then, I think it's down to Ryan Murphy only. Maybe he doesn't understand the numbers. Maybe no one explained it to him. Or, maybe he refuses to understand the numbers, because of his big ego. Maybe he understands it all, but lives in delusion ratings would somehow improve next season. Or, maybe he's smart, and is just trying to build good negotiation strategy that will allow him to extract maximum possible compensation for Fox altering their contract.

Spot said...

I'm still coming down from the Person of Interest finale. So awesome. It's just too bad about the ratings. No show on television shows the importance of time slot better than PoI. Just under 3 when behing BBT and a comedy at 9. Just under 2 when behind the NCIS twins at 10. I'm going to enjoy what will probably be the final season come fall.

Spot said...

I'm being facetious with my comment. Yes, networks want to be in the Ryan Murphy business because he has a tendency to launch shows that hit big in the zeitgeist (Nip/Tuck, Glee, American Horror Story). However he also has a tendency to create shows that flame-out fast. AHS is the perfect format for him because he can burn as much story as he wants since there's a reset every year.

Murphy can elect to keep Fox to its word and shoot 22 episodes for season six (though I thought I read somewhere that the plan was for 24 since season 5 only had 20 and the two-season pickup was for 44 eps total). And with that knowledge, Reilly can schedule them however he sees fit. Bottom line is: Reilly knows he has to place a megabomb on the lineup somewhere next season. If I'm him I'm pressing hard on a low number; the penalty for weaseling out of episodes has to be less than the makegoods Glee would cause and the embarrassment of being regularly beat by The CW.

Spot said...

Well on that last point, there are certainly CW shows that would not beat it. Like Beauty and the Beast. Probably Jane the Virgin...
Not that that makes Glee not a fail.

Spot said...

It was widely believed it was 24 episodes, because Murphy and/or cast members mentioned it in interviews. I don't care to google it now. However, two days ago, Reilly mentioned "trimming down from 22". So, now nobody really knows.

Yes, I understand Reilly would have to put show losing money on the schedule. And it's sibling studio, so any previous or new arrangement about discount (which would move part of the loss to production company), would be nothing but a bookkeeping trick.

So, I agree on both points. Penalty must be less than actually airing. And, about those sub-1 ratings being PR embarrassment, thus one more reason for trimming episodes.

Although, they put up with Raising Hope this season, and Fringe previously. From that I'm indirectly assuming Glee is having no syndication value, and opposite being true for RH / Fringe.

Spot said...

Raising Hope was a 20th Century property, so I do think the syndication argument was made for renewing it. Fringe's renewal was partly about the vocal, passionate base that would view Fox as a "hero." I think stronger factors like WB making the show cheaper for the network played into it. And while Glee has the sister studio connection, I can't picture a way to make the show cheaper unless they do something like an all public domain songs season (facetious joke).

Spot said...

It's CBS doing what CBS does, setting up the syndication factory. The factory needs some new products to churn out, hence the ridiculous favouritism to any remotely promising new CBS Studios shows (The Millers soaking up TBBT, Elementary getting a post-SB episode).

Spot said...

I think POI has a shot for 5-6 seasons.


Hawaii Five-O and Good Wife (despite critical acclaim) will probably end before, also, CBS is with 4 new fall dramas, we can assume that at least two may end canceled (1 in a best case scenario, 3 or even all of them in the worst case).

Spot said...

That's just stupid. They're going to sacrifice Mondays and greatly limit the growth potential of Thursdays just so they can shepherd one show into syndication? That's indefensible and short-sighted. Three years from now, BBT will be ending Season Ten. God only knows how much money it would take to get the cast to do a couple more. Chances are, they'll be wrapping things up. They need a new hit to make up for it. Hopefully it'll come in the next two years, because as far as I'm concerned, they've completely wasted the first.

Spot said...

Grade: B


Mondays - surrender night? Kinda unexpected that is Mom getting the lead-in, even though they are carrying it until syndication, but there are just six weeks, Scorpion seems DOA and could hurt the smart move of placing LA at 10.
Tuesdays - very good as usual, time to nuture a new NCIS, LA has already proved itself.
Wednesdays - good night too, CM leading to a new drama was something I expected, both drama #1 and #2 leading to new shows.
Thursdays - underwhelming to see Millers getting TBBT's lead-in, but expected considering syndication, Men's final season will outrate it, considering they had a very bad comedy development (recasts on The odd Couple and HIMYD passed on), McCarthys is just filling for Mike and Molly while Odd Couple may see a shot after TBBT when Men ends.
Fridays - Amazing Race is down but will improve the night, they renewed it for two cycles, will UB be placed on summers or air two times per week as a brige between TAR and Survivor cycles, eliminating the repeats.
Sundays - double edge sword, NFL overruns will push Madam Secretary but it is its only chance of success, TGW may end after this season and CSI is on syndication farm mode, I think they don't care that much if it fails, but if it does, ratings will be awful and I can see Mentalist replacing it. CSI:Cyber odds of survivor are lower than NYC 22, sundays at 10 in spring is something that's not going to work, will probably be a filler.

Spot said...

Agreed on all points. As of right now Glee has 22 episodes locked in. Once Reilly and Murphy discuss, they will agree upon the 'right' number of episodes to finish the series, and give the character & fans the sendoff they deserve. FOX can only control where it's put on the schedule. Ryan Murphy holds all the cards.

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