|American Idol Recent Season Ends||Survivor Recent Season Ends |
|7.4 (We) -> 6.4 (Tu) -> 9.2 (We) (2011) |
4.9 (We) -> 4.4 (Tu) -> 6.4 (We) (2012)
2.9 (We) -> 3.0 (We) -> 3.6 (Th) (2013)
2.1 (We) -> 1.7 (prelim Tu) -> (?) (2014)
|2.7 -> 2.9 -> 3.2 (fall 2012) |
2.4 -> 2.6 -> 2.7 (spring 2013)
2.6 -> 2.5 -> 2.6 (fall 2013)
2.4 -> 2.6 -> (?) (spring 2014)
Idol numbers are the last two performance weeks and the finale. In 2011 and 2012 (and again this year), the final performance show was a special Tuesday edition, while in 2013 it ended on the show's two regular nights. Survivor numbers are the last two Wednesday episodes and then the two-hour Sunday finale.
Though Survivor has been trouncing Idol in recent weeks, Idol produces much larger finale spikes historically. If Idol goes 20%+ above its last Wednesday performance show, which it usually has, and if Survivor has the same kind of blah week-to-week growth as recent Sunday finales, this could be very close. But I still give Survivor the edge. It might benefit a bit with a finale on its regular night, while the relatively small boosts for DWTS and The Voice on Tuesday (plus Idol's negative momentum in general) don't seem to bode well for a vintage huge Idol spike.
Spread: Survivor (8:00-10:00) beats American Idol by 0.25 points. (Reply with "Survivor" if you think Survivor beats Idol by 0.3 points or more. Reply with "American Idol" if you think Survivor beats Idol by 0.2 points or less OR if you think Idol beats/ties Survivor.)
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. Result compares show finals, each individually rounded to one decimal point.