Wednesday, May 21, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 5/21/14: Can American Idol Survive the Survivor Finale?


The end of another season has arrived, and the final Wednesday of 2013-14 brings a second straight finale duel that we've never seen before. American Idol and Survivor have regularly faced each other for the last four years, but because of Survivor's special Sunday finales, they've never actually had dueling finales until tonight. CBS may only be doing this because the Olympics pushed Survivor to a later start date than usual. But if it fares better than recent Sunday finales, CBS may think about making Wednesday finales the norm. Meanwhile, American Idol wraps up the season that officially made it Just Another Show, and it'll hope to garner more finale interest than the music show finales on Tuesday. Can American Idol survive the Survivor finale? That's The Question for Wednesday, May 21, 2014.

American Idol Recent Season Ends Survivor Recent Season Ends
7.4 (We) -> 6.4 (Tu) -> 9.2 (We)  (2011)
4.9 (We) -> 4.4 (Tu) -> 6.4 (We)  (2012)
2.9 (We) -> 3.0 (We) -> 3.6 (Th) (2013)
2.1 (We) -> 1.7 (prelim Tu) -> (?) (2014)
2.7 -> 2.9 -> 3.2 (fall 2012)
2.4 -> 2.6 -> 2.7 (spring 2013)
2.6 -> 2.5 -> 2.6 (fall 2013)
2.4 -> 2.6 -> (?) (spring 2014)

Idol numbers are the last two performance weeks and the finale. In 2011 and 2012 (and again this year), the final performance show was a special Tuesday edition, while in 2013 it ended on the show's two regular nights. Survivor numbers are the last two Wednesday episodes and then the two-hour Sunday finale.

Though Survivor has been trouncing Idol in recent weeks, Idol produces much larger finale spikes historically. If Idol goes 20%+ above its last Wednesday performance show, which it usually has, and if Survivor has the same kind of blah week-to-week growth as recent Sunday finales, this could be very close. But I still give Survivor the edge. It might benefit a bit with a finale on its regular night, while the relatively small boosts for DWTS and The Voice on Tuesday (plus Idol's negative momentum in general) don't seem to bode well for a vintage huge Idol spike.

Spread: Survivor (8:00-10:00) beats American Idol by 0.25 points. (Reply with "Survivor" if you think Survivor beats Idol by 0.3 points or more. Reply with "American Idol" if you think Survivor beats Idol by 0.2 points or less OR if you think Idol beats/ties Survivor.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. Result compares show finals, each individually rounded to one decimal point.

27 comments:

Spot said...

Well I thought last night would be a slam dunk..
If the Idol finale goes as 'meh' as DWTS/The Voice, I'll give the edge to SURVIVOR

Spot said...

Survivor. The significant Idol spike isn't going to be there this year.

Spot said...

Survivor.

Spot said...

I'm going with Survivor.


Survivor: 2.6
Idol: 2.3


Man, those Idol drops. Just...wow.

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

If Idol gets "as meh" as those shows, it would be a win for Idol...

Spot said...

Survivor for sure, but people are putting too much stock into the Tuesday airing. Idol performance finales are actually usually some of the worst ratings they have all year, and airing on a different night hurt. The last time it had a special Tuesday airing for the finale it fell 14%, similar to the trend it did last night and then was up 44% from the special airing, but only 24% up from the last regular performance. I say a 2.3 is achievable

Spot said...

SURVIVOR

Even with a spike, American Idol will like only do a 2.3, and I think Survivor can do a 2.7 or even 2.8.

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

I'm referring to the minimal bounces they got (The Voice only 0.1 higher than Monday in prelims)

Spot said...

American Idol

Spot said...

Idol: 2.4
Survivor: 2.7
It's right on the line, but I have to go Survivor.

Spot said...

Survivor.

Spot said...

The death of the singing shows has apparently arrived, if this week (and season) is any guide.

Survivor. It won't be close either.

Spot said...

This is really tough, and my heart is definitely telling me to pick Survivor. But, I always lose Survivor games. But, I expect somewhat of a finale boost, being back on Wednesday. Idol is a bit of a wildcard. It is firmly a league-average show, but is it still able to bounce? I think that the 1.7 yesterday was a fluke, though.


Survivor: 2.8
AI: 2.4


Survivor Wins


By the way, is it possible to tell me what my all-time record is when Survivor is involved? Thanks.

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

Survivor 2.8
Idol 2.2


Survivor

Spot said...

All realities canibalized themselves.


Terrible for Idol, The Question: Enlisted on sundays at 7 or Harry/Riot combo, who does better?

Spot said...

Survivior.

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

Survivor

Spot said...

After this one, I have you at 1-4. Although, the field as a whole has done terribly in Survivor games. 4-6, 2-8, 6-7 last season, and the two games this season were the two worst of the whole season: each 1-19!

Spot said...

While I would hate to spoil the surprise, I think you may be onto something...!

Spot said...

The all time record low for original programming on the Big Four is a 0.2 rating, set by some short lived show in 2009 (but on the Fourth of July) and by NBC's reality competition Ford commercial, Escape Routes, twice in the spring of 2012 (but on Saturdays).

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