WHAT MATTERS:
- It's only the first day of the summer season, and Fox already has three disastrous series premiere ratings under its belt. While Gang Related (0.9) did better than the two unscripted series Fox premiered on the last couple Tuesdays, that's not much of a bar to clear, and it didn't clear it by that much. It tumbled by 40% from Hell's Kitchen (1.5) and went well behind the failed post-Hell's Kitchen launch from last year (Does Someone Have to Go?, 1.3). The network will probably be patient with this show, since they're likely to have an even more pressing issue on Tuesday, but this is not what they wanted.
- NBC had much better news with the return of Last Comic Standing (1.7), back after taking the last three summers off. The show's last season in 2010 premiered at 2.0 and ultimately averaged a 1.74, making this a relatively promising hold across four years.
- ABC's Black Box dropped three tenths in its first airing with no Grey's Anatomy lead-in. And the CW's mini-series Labyrinth wasn't exactly an eye-popper, but it quietly did better than most repeats would.
- Programming note: as usual for this blog, most daily posts during the summer will not go up until finals are released. Unless there's a particularly notable data point, don't expect the noon-ish prelims update. (The noon-ish posts will remain for much of next week, since there are a lot of premieres, but then die down beyond that.) I'll put up a few more details on other summer plans early next week.
WHAT MATTERS:
- The NFL Draft (4.6 on ESPN, 1.1 on NFL Network) obliterated records and took its usual surprisingly large chunk of ratings juice away from The Big Bang Theory (3.8). The good news is it didn't hurt the rest of CBS that much on a week-to-week basis (perhaps since they already took their huge drops last week). But it meant no week three miracle for Bad Teacher (1.3), still well behind lead-in Two and a Half Men (2.1) as well as The Crazy Ones' usual deliveries.
- Some finals help meant ABC's dramas ended up about as resilient as usual on Draft night,with Grey's Anatomy (2.5) giving back just a single tenth of the Isaiah Washington bounce last week. Black Box (1.2) was also down a tenth in week three.
- NBC continued its mix of random stuff to wrap up the season on Thursday. The American Comedy Awards (1.0) leading out of an original Hollywood Game Night (0.9) were a much weaker combo than last week's iHeartRadio awards show.
- For the True scores, the ESPN Draft rating (4.6) is applied as cable competition for the networks. This causes some irregularities, as I can't account for how the show broke down across the half-hours. But it at least somewhat helps off-set the noticeable week-to-week PUT growth.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Week two wasn't kind to last week's newbies; Bad Teacher (1.4) almost certainly fell completely out of the conversation with a 33% week-to-week drop. It was a bad night for CBS in general, with The Millers (2.0) plummeting to its worst-ever retention out of The Big Bang Theory (4.5). This was also an outright low, dipping below its performance on Halloween following a repeat! And Two and a Half Men (2.1) did by far its worst number since the move to 9:00.
- The other week two, ABC's Black Box (1.3), was down 13% even as Grey's Anatomy (2.6) bounced back by the same percent for Isaiah Washington's return.
- The other development of note was NBC actually having one of its best Thursdays of the season with the iHeartRadio Music Awards (1.7). This may have taken a bit of a toll on some of the competition, but no one more than a dive-bombing American Idol (1.5).
Black Box
Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC
WHAT MATTERS:
- CBS had a relatively respectable start out of late April throwaway Bad Teacher (2.1), more than 20% above what had become the recent 1.7 level for previous occupant The Crazy Ones and just 16% behind lead-in Two and a Half Men (2.5). Let's not get carried away here; it's still a typical 20% drop away from being in TCO territory and thus probably on the wrong side of the bubble. But if it overachieves that standard, it may actually become something the network should think about as upfronts loom.
- ABC also had a series premiere, medical drama Black Box (1.5). That was roughly a third behind Grey's Anatomy (2.3), which slumped on the first Thursday after Scandal's finale. Were this a normal in-season premiere, things would look quite rough for Black Box, but it'll ultimately be judged by much more lenient summer co-production standards, so it's probably too early for definitive judgments.
- The other networks kicked off May sweeps in soft fashion, though The Vampire Diaries (0.8) and Reign (0.5) each inched back up for the CW. And NBC sent off Parks and Recreation (1.0) in a one-hour season finale, with the biggest notable there being the promo guy saying at the end of the finale that it's coming back in the fall.
|
| It's been weeks since the last broadcast series premiere, but all of a sudden tonight we get two of 'em. Late April is not exactly the time of year when the broadcasters are trotting out their very favorite shows, but ABC co-production drama Black Box and CBS single-camera comedy Bad Teacher will at least have good lead-ins going for them. Grey's Anatomy and Two and a Half Men have each been posting mid-2's ratings of late. Can one of these series retain 80% or more of that lead-in tonight? I happen to think one has a much better chance than the other, but I'll include both shows here... just in case!
As with the March 9 game, "Over" wins if EITHER Black Box OR Bad Teacher goes over the line, while "under" wins if NEITHER one goes over.
Highest Rating Among Black Box AND Bad Teacher Over/Under: 1.95. |
It's the season finale of Best Case/Worst Case! As in the previous edition, these Black Box
and Bad Teacher
predictions will only cover the regular season episodes (four apiece) so I don't have to think about multiple timeslot situations. The 24
prediction will cover the whole season since it's probably less timeslot-dependent than the other two.
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.
