Friday, June 21, 2013

The War of 18-49, The Voice


Scheduling history: Season one of The Voice aired mostly on Tuesday, with a couple Wednesday results shows at the end of the season. Since then, it's mostly moved into the regular season and been a Monday/Tuesday fixture. The Tuesday results show has gone back and forth between 8:00 and 9:00 a bunch of times, and it returned to 8:00 starting in winter/spring 2014 to lead into new scripted series.

See (who saw) how it all began: NBC rushed its new singing competition The Voice on the air right at the end of the 2010-11 regular season, looking to get the jump on Fox's similar upcoming The X Factor. And The Voice drew considerable interest right out of the gate, premiering to 11.78 million viewers and a 5.1 demo rating on 4/26/11. Its second week of auditions actually spiked to a 5.7 demo, but it dropped from there to a fairly consistent mid-4's level for the rest of the season, with its Wednesday results shows dipping into the 3's.

The best of times: After the success of season one, NBC was determined to make The Voice a regular season fixture. And like CBS with Survivor, they had some big help: a post-Super Bowl airing. Season two premiered after the big game with a whooping 16.3 demo, and it turned that audience into a massive 6.7 for its regular slot premiere the next day. The audience bailed rather quickly in subsequent weeks, but the early boost meant it was the show's biggest season on the main night in raw numbers.

The worst of times: Most seasons of The Voice have dropped pretty significantly over the course of the season, and that effect has become more pronounced in the show's later seasons. The spring 2016 season brought the biggest  as low as a 1.5 demo on a main night in spring 2017 and 1.2 on a results night on 5/1/18.

Then vs. now: The Voice has been nothing short of a game-changer for NBC as a network. Its double season in 2012-13 was pretty much the only big reason why the network became somewhat competitive again. And like other reality staples of the past, it's helped the network create a scripted supporting cast as well, boosting shows like The Blacklist and Chicago Fire.

It's had a tendency to keep raising questions about its long-term viability because it drops so much in the second half of the season, but it also keeps answering those questions by premiering very well. Fall 2015 was the show's strongest season in A18-49+ to date, holding much better in the second half than most, but the spring 2016 season had the worst overall trends of any Voice season. Overall, the show seems to be sticking pretty close to the rate of league average decline, which is perfectly fine for something of this size (but a worse trend than many of the other reality staples). Unless it can start on an upward trajectory again, the ultimate story seems to be that The Voice's assist to NBC was a miniature version of what Idol did for Fox. But given where NBC was a few years ago, that's not at all insignificant.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

1Spring 2011Tuesday 9:004.583.35.7detail
2Spring 2012Monday 8:004.82+5%3.56.7detail
Tuesday 9:003.613.14.4
3Fall 2012Monday 8:004.383.74.8detail
Tuesday 8:
4Spring 2013Monday 8:004.14-14%3.25.2detail
Tuesday 8:003.79+5%2.84.6
5Fall 2013Monday 8:004.02-8%3.35.1detailB
Tuesday 9:003.65-10%2.54.7
6Spring 2014Monday 8:003.55-14%3.04.7detailC
Tuesday 8:003.18-16%2.54.1
7Fall 2014Monday 8:003.35-17%2.54.1detailC
Tuesday 8:003.07-16%2.34.1
8Spring 2015Monday 8:003.08-13%2.34.1detailC+
Tuesday 8:003.02-5%2.04.1
9Fall 2015Monday 8:003.12-7%2.63.5detailB+
Tuesday 8:002.80-9%2.13.7
10Spring 2016Monday 8:002.50-19%2.03.4detailC
Tuesday 8:002.34-22%1.63.1
11Fall 2016Monday 8:002.50-20%2.03.3detailB
Tuesday 8:002.52-10%1.83.4
12Spring 2017Monday 8:002.22-11%1.83.1detail
Tuesday 8:002.02-14%1.52.6
13Fall 2017Monday 8:002.10-16%1.72.6detailB-
Tuesday 8:002.04-19%1.72.7
14Spring 2018Monday 8:001.94-13%1.52.8detailC+
Tuesday 8:001.70-16%1.22.4

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

1Spring 2011180big hit1.97130224201146
2Spring 2012204megahit2.24+13%148284284161
153big hit1.68131186135186
3Fall 2012208megahit2.28176228199199
194big hit2.12142233190233
4Spring 2013197big hit2.15-4%152247228176
180big hit1.97+18%133218195209
5Fall 2013213megahit2.34+3%175271271175
194big hit2.13+0%133250250212
6Spring 2014189big hit2.07-4%159250250170
169big hit1.85-6%133218196175
7Fall 2014199big hit2.18-7%149244244167
182big hit2.00-6%137244244196
8Spring 2015183big hit2.01-3%137244244155
180big hit1.97+7%119244232172
9Fall 2015214megahit2.34+7%178240240220
192big hit2.11+5%144254240199
10Spring 2016172big hit1.88-6%137233233137
161big hit1.76-10%110213206151
11Fall 2016204megahit2.24-4%163269269180
12Spring 2017181big hit1.99+6%147253253163
165big hit1.81+2%122212212155
13Fall 2017192big hit2.10-6%159240240184
186big hit2.04-10%156246246186
14Spring 2018177big hit1.94-2%136254254137
155big hit1.70-6%114215215137

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.


Spot said...

I just love the voice. BTW, just out of curiosity, was this the voice best season in TRUE terms? I think the summer airing kind of hurts its raw numbers when comparing it to a fall season

Spot said...

I'm not sure about past seasons, but the current version of True definitely thought that the spring/summer 2013 season was stronger than the fall 2012 one. It definitely seems much more difficult to try to air the second half of the season in a time of year when people are predisposed to turning off their TVs (early summer), rather than a time when people are turning them on (late fall).

Spot said...

Yeah that's what I thought and what I also figured when I scrolled through your archive pages ;) Thanks!

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