Friday, June 21, 2013

The War of 18-49, The Voice



THE VOICE (NBC)

Scheduling history: Season one of The Voice aired mostly on Tuesday, with a couple Wednesday results shows at the end of the season. Since then, it's mostly moved into the regular season and been a Monday/Tuesday fixture. The Tuesday results show has gone back and forth between 8:00 and 9:00 a bunch of times, and it returned to 8:00 starting in winter/spring 2014 to lead into new scripted series.

See (who saw) how it all began: NBC rushed its new singing competition The Voice on the air right at the end of the 2010-11 regular season, looking to get the jump on Fox's similar upcoming The X Factor. And The Voice drew considerable interest right out of the gate, premiering to 11.78 million viewers and a 5.1 demo rating on 4/26/11. Its second week of auditions actually spiked to a 5.7 demo, but it dropped from there to a fairly consistent mid-4's level for the rest of the season, with its Wednesday results shows dipping into the 3's.

The best of times: After the success of season one, NBC was determined to make The Voice a regular season fixture. And like CBS with Survivor, they had some big help: a post-Super Bowl airing. Season two premiered after the big game with a whooping 16.3 demo, and it turned that audience into a massive 6.7 for its regular slot premiere the next day. The audience bailed rather quickly in subsequent weeks, but the early boost meant it was the show's biggest season on the main night in raw numbers.

The worst of times: Most seasons of The Voice have dropped pretty significantly over the course of the season, and that effect has become more pronounced in the show's later seasons. Season 16 in spring 2019 brought the show's most disturbing drops yet, including some journeys into fractional territory for the results episodes on 4/23/19, 4/30/19 and 5/7/19.

Then vs. now: The Voice has been nothing short of a game-changer for NBC as a network. Its double season in 2012-13 was pretty much the only big reason why the network became somewhat competitive again. And like other reality staples of the past, it's helped the network create a scripted supporting cast as well, boosting shows like The Blacklist, Chicago Fire and eventually a megahit in This Is Us.

It's had a tendency to keep raising questions about its long-term viability because it drops so much in the second half of the season, but it also keeps answering those questions by premiering very well. Overall, the show has mostly stuck pretty close to the rate of league average decline, which is perfectly fine for something of this size (but a worse trend than many of the other reality staples). Unless it can start on an upward trajectory again, the ultimate story seems to be that The Voice's assist to NBC was a miniature version of what Idol did for Fox. But given where NBC was a few years ago, that's not at all insignificant.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

SeasYearSlotAvgy2yLoHiResultsGrade
1Spring 2011Tuesday 9:004.583.35.7detail
2Spring 2012Monday 8:004.82+5%3.56.7detail
Tuesday 9:003.613.14.4
3Fall 2012Monday 8:004.383.74.8detail
Tuesday 8:004.083.04.9
4Spring 2013Monday 8:004.14-14%3.25.2detail
Tuesday 8:003.79+5%2.84.6
5Fall 2013Monday 8:004.02-8%3.35.1detailB
Tuesday 8:003.65-10%2.54.7
6Spring 2014Monday 8:003.55-14%3.04.7detailC
Tuesday 8:003.18-16%2.54.1
7Fall 2014Monday 8:003.35-17%2.54.1detailC
Tuesday 8:003.07-16%2.34.1
8Spring 2015Monday 8:003.08-13%2.34.1detailC+
Tuesday 8:003.02-5%2.04.1
9Fall 2015Monday 8:003.12-7%2.63.5detailB+
Tuesday 8:002.79-9%2.13.7
10Spring 2016Monday 8:002.50-19%2.03.4detailC
Tuesday 8:002.34-22%1.63.1
11Fall 2016Monday 8:002.50-20%2.03.3detailB
Tuesday 8:002.52-10%1.83.4
12Spring 2017Monday 8:002.22-11%1.83.1detail
Tuesday 8:002.02-14%1.52.6
13Fall 2017Monday 8:002.10-16%1.72.6detailB-
Tuesday 8:002.04-19%1.72.7
14Spring 2018Monday 8:001.94-12%1.52.8detailC+
Tuesday 8:001.70-16%1.22.4
15Fall 2018Monday 8:001.73-18%1.42.1detailC+
Tuesday 8:001.67-18%1.42.2
16Spring 2019Monday 8:001.50-23%1.12.1detailC-
Tuesday 9:001.21-29%0.92.1

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

SeasYearA18-49+LabelNow19y2yLoHiPremiereFinale
1Spring 2011180big hit1.71130224201146
2Spring 2012204megahit1.94+13%148284284161
153big hit1.45131186135186
3Fall 2012208megahit1.98176228199199
194big hit1.84142233190233
4Spring 2013197big hit1.87-4%152247228176
180big hit1.71+18%133218195209
5Fall 2013213megahit2.03+3%175271271175
194big hit1.84+0%133250250212
6Spring 2014189big hit1.79-4%159250250170
169big hit1.60-6%133218196175
7Fall 2014199big hit1.89-7%149244244167
182big hit1.73-6%137244244196
8Spring 2015183big hit1.74-3%137244244155
180big hit1.71+7%119244232172
9Fall 2015214megahit2.03+8%176241241222
192big hit1.82+5%144255237199
10Spring 2016171big hit1.63-7%134235235134
161big hit1.53-11%111216209148
11Fall 2016204megahit1.94-5%163273273182
205megahit1.95+7%150280280202
12Spring 2017181big hit1.72+6%143257257159
165big hit1.56+2%122215215156
13Fall 2017192big hit1.82-6%159240240183
186big hit1.77-9%156246246186
14Spring 2018178big hit1.69-2%136254254138
155big hit1.48-6%114215215138
15Fall 2018182big hit1.73-5%147217214155
175big hit1.67-6%144228228183
16Spring 2019157big hit1.50-11%119221221125
127hit1.21-18%96216216113

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

3 comments:

Spot said...

I just love the voice. BTW, just out of curiosity, was this the voice best season in TRUE terms? I think the summer airing kind of hurts its raw numbers when comparing it to a fall season

Spot said...

I'm not sure about past seasons, but the current version of True definitely thought that the spring/summer 2013 season was stronger than the fall 2012 one. It definitely seems much more difficult to try to air the second half of the season in a time of year when people are predisposed to turning off their TVs (early summer), rather than a time when people are turning them on (late fall).

Spot said...

Yeah that's what I thought and what I also figured when I scrolled through your archive pages ;) Thanks!

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