Tuesday, June 18, 2013

War of 18-49 Update, NCIS (2012-13)

Let's take a look at the 2012-13 season (the tenth overall) of NCIS on CBS.

TimeslotLo AvgHi y2yA18-49+ LabelResults
Tuesday 8:002.7 3.354.1 -11%159big hit detail

Rating the Ratings: It's quite a testament to the NCIS ratings trajectory that -11% is the worst year-to-year trend in the decade-long history of the show. But in one of the more brutal recent years for broadcast TV, even the usually steady CBS procedurals weren't immune. It had a particularly rough fall as it dueled with the stout fall season of The Voice. Several of its data points around that time were down 20%+ year-to-year. But it basically held its fall raw numbers for most of the second half of the season, even growing during The Voice's hiatus, so the year-to-year gap closed considerably. And going -11% allowed the show to widen its lead as the top broadcast drama. Grade: B-.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for NCIS.


Spot said...

B- for the top broadcast drama on tv sounds a bit harsh to me. I don't watch the show or anything but its ratings are truly impressive. I am very interested in seeing how it deals with Shield next year

Spot said...

I agree. Especially considering it was flat at its highest level ever in A18-49+.

Spot said...

Yeah, that on top of it.

Spot said...

NCIS is a victim of its own success. It's never dropped by double digits before so it's an especially stark statistic. While it's not in danger of getting canceled next season, the show is starting to become mortal and show its age as it fell in tandem with broadcast's 11% decline. I think higher grades should be reserved for shows that fell less than the average (The Vampire Diaries) or grew (Shark Tank, The Big Bang Theory).

Spot said...

I get your point but that is putting too much weight on the relative ratings with itself. If you look at the full picture, it is still the top broadcast drama on TV and that alone should give it a better grade. I have the same issue with the AI's grade (another show I don't watch at all)... Just because relative to itself the show didn't do that good, it did still very good when compared to the other shows. But I guess spot thinks the same way you do (in relative terms with the show itself) when giving the grades

Spot said...

I hear what you're saying, but my grades are more about
the year-to-year and the context of the show rather than where it fits into the current landscape. I do it that way just because I think that's a more interesting take than simply lining up all the raw numbers and grading based on the rankings.

And honestly I was leaning toward B, but I went with B- just because I gave the last two seasons B and wanted to set this one a little worse. It's still above average! It's just that with this system, there have to be better grades for shows that drop less than the league average, and even better grades for shows that are flat in raw numbers, and better grades still for shows that grow in raw numbers.

Spot said...

Yeah I understand your system. And hey, it is YOUR system, so you do what you may ;) I also agree with you that at the end of the day it is probably more interesting this way, it just looks "strange" (?) when looking at it. Minor thing though ;)

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