Friday, October 31, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/30/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Factoring out NFL pre-emptions took CBS' Thursday from neutral to decidedly negative. The winners in the prelims, Mom (2.5) and Two and a Half Men (2.4), moved into a much more "meh" territory, while The McCarthys (1.7) now looks extremely bad and Elementary (1.2) is an almost unbelievably abject disaster.
    • On the plus side, Scandal (3.1) rose to put it on the week-to-week upside, while The Vampire Diaries (0.8) upticked to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.
  • CBS' return to Thursday entertainment programming was very much a mixed bag. They'll definitely take the series high 2.7 start for Mom at 8:30, though it looks a little better than a 2.7 would seem on the surface because its lead-in The Big Bang Theory (4.1) took a hit in its return from Monday. It will probably decrease in finals but right now it's about two-thirds retention, which is wayyy better than The MillersTwo and a Half Men (2.7) was definitely a win, hitting its highest rating since last season's premiere and fully retaining Mom. But things got very troublesome starting at 9:30; The McCarthys (1.9) barely managed 70% retention on premiere night, and Elementary (1.4) could only get back to the series low at which it ended last season.
  • ABC was only at two-thirds strength for TGIT #6, but Scandal (3.0) held up fabulously even with a Peanuts special (1.7) filling in well below Grey's Anatomy numbers at 8/7c. However, How to Get Away with Murder (2.7) took a bit of a hit at 10/9c.
  • With a second reasonably-rated network back in the entertainment game, there were some major ratings stinkers on the other networks. Bones (1.3) went well below its recent deliveries at 8/7c, while NBC hit lows anew with The Biggest Loser (1.1), Bad Judge (0.9), the now on death watch A to Z (0.7) and Parenthood (1.1). The Vampire Diaries (0.7) also had a bad night for the CW.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (R) 1.7 35% -32% -23% 1.9
Scandal 3.1 42% +3%+0.1-0.8 3/6 +7% +2% +17% 2.8
How To Get Away With Murder 2.7 39% -10%-0.3+0.1 6/6 n/a -10% -7% 2.5
ABC:-12%-3%
The Big Bang Theory 4.1 32% -11%-0.5n/a 7/7 n/a +64% +58% 4.1
Mom 2.5 29% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% -56% +19% 2.1
Two and a Half Men 2.4 30% n/an/an/a 1/1 -17% -65% +26% 2.0
The McCarthys 1.7 27% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -75% -15% 1.5
Elementary 1.2 20% n/an/an/a 1/1 -43% -83% -33% 1.4
CBS:-64%+7%
The Biggest Loser 1.1 32% -8%-0.1n/a 8/8 -39% -4% -33% 1.4
Bad Judge 0.9 29% -10%-0.1-0.1 5/5 n/a -10% -18% 1.0
A to Z 0.7 36% -22%-0.2-0.1 5/5 n/a -22% -36% 0.9
Parenthood 1.1 36% -8%-0.1-0.2 6/6 -8% -8% -8% 1.5
NBC:-9%-24%
Bones 1.3 29% -24%-0.4n/a 5/5 n/a +44% +63% 1.5
Gracepoint 0.8 31% +0%+0.0+0.4 3/5 n/a +0% +33% 0.9
Fox:+24%+50%
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 64% +0%+0.0n/a 3/5 -11% +0% -6% 0.8
Reign 0.5 52% +0%+0.0+0.0 1/5 -17% +11% -17% 0.5
CW:+4%-10%
Big5:-35%+0%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

49 comments:

Spot said...

People can say what they want about ABC and Paul Lee but TGIT and the way he nurtured Scandal to become an enormous hit for the network is all sorts of fantastic.


Fantastic performance by ABC, all things considered.

Spot said...

Indeed, Fox / NBC / CW - stinkers all across. While ABC held very well.

The McCarthys - at least this puts an end to debate about if CBS will have room to air all 22 episodes of Mike & Molly this season. I always suspected that debate was a moot point.

Elementary - Wow, straight to the top of the list of candidates for moving to weekend night. Not to the top of CBS drama cancellation candidates list, but only because it will be at less than 88 episodes after this season. I overestimated its strength much. Well, nobody's perfect.

The Big Bang Theory skewed strangely old - 32%, and the rest of comedies followed the suit - 29% / 31% / 27%.

Spot said...

Well, that ends all the excitement. See you in February.

Spot said...

Fantastic performance by Scandal.


CBS was a mixed bag, well, people will never stop watching 2.5 Men, TBBT dropped, Mom held OK all the way to a series high, McCarthys will be pulled soon.


Awful ratings by NBC, they are at Sean/MJF levels before november, time for Blacklist/SVU/Chicagos repeats

Spot said...

State of Affairs?

Spot said...

There is still State of Affairs and FOX is going to change everything withe Idol and their current black holes.

Spot said...

I wish Backstrom was the answer, but it's not going to be. Idol will be down around 1.7 State of Affairs sounds like one of those CBS Sunday shows, I don't expect anything but middling ratings from it.

Spot said...

I knew that BBT would take a hit from all this moving.

Spot said...

CBS is willing to sacrifice some tenths from TBBT to help the rest of their lineup.


The strategy was a mixed bag because both Mom and Scorpion got a boost but CBS poor comedy development will hold them, since only The Odd Couple may get a post-TBBT slot (and I'm a bit doubtful about it, being owned by them is the only reason given their midseason past track of zero renewals since 2007).

Spot said...

Scandal is a monster and ABC will be beating CBS regularly on Thursday which is pretty ridiculous considering they have TBBT. They already did so last night even without GA! Elementary is doing horribly as predicted. Mom did pretty well considering the reduced Bang even if I was hoping for a 3.0. Two and a Half Men also did pretty well but that was to be expected given how it performed at 9 pm last spring and that it is the final season. McCarthys did the exact number I thought it would do.


Elsewhere, horrible horrible results everywhere (even Bones), except for maybe Reign which held even despite the carnage and is now only 0.2 behind TVD which doesn't look as bad as the early 0.4 out of 0.9.

Spot said...

Huh. I thought Charlie Brown would have done better since it was Halloween Eve. But it finally shows that Scandal is its own beast and has become the new Grey's Anatomy: able to pull a great number even with a weak lead-in. And How to Get Away with Murder still beat Parenthood and Elementary combined. I wonder how much money ABC would have to throw at Viola Davis to make season 2 the typical 22 episodes (assuming it bucks the trend of limited series taking a steep nosedive in their sophomore years).



That 2.5 Men number feels absurdly high. I have a feeling that the later portions of CBS' nights are going to be hit more in finals once the preemptions come out. If so, that's really bad for Elementary.

Spot said...

Color me disappointed. Big Bang Theory did get hurt by the scheduling jerk around. Mom didn't exactly breakout. Beating The Millers isn't saying much at all. Elementary returned at a tied series low. McCarthy's is basically DOA. That's the lowest in season comedy premiere on CBS ever! Even Bad Teacher did better. Murder fell down despite decreased competiton and a steady lead in. Bones is only 4 ticks better than last weeks repeat. Vampire Diaries continue downward despite no Grey's Anatomy.
.
The only good news is Scandal staying steady. Plus Two and a Half Men, but football preemptions may kill that bright spot.

Spot said...

Good news for Big Bang Theory is next week is Standard Time. No show gets a boost from lack of DST than Big Bang.

Spot said...

I do think Murder may have been dinged a little by Elementary just because it's more scripted competition and Elementary may have siphoned a few viewers from the upper end of the 18-49 demo. But perhaps Murder will get a finals uptick.

Spot said...

TNT aired first Lebron's game since his return to the Cavs (vs Knicks).
And there was Saints - Panthers game on NFLN. With CBS increasing
exposure of Thursday games, that one probably did slightly better than
similar matchups did in previous seasons.
Those sport events maybe took some viewers away from broadcasters, especially M18-34ers. While not from ABC heavily female skewing dramas.

Spot said...

Some consolation for Elementary is it is one of the few shows that gets a legit boost in C3.

Spot said...

That seems like a particularly large drop for The Big Bang Theory. I thought its fans would follow it to the moon. Last night just might be an aberration--we'll have to see in the coming weeks. Even with football preemptions, I am going to guess Big Bang will still adjust up in the finals while most of the remaining CBS programming will adjust down. NBC really cratered last evening. It's particularly depressing that their highest quality drama by far, Parenthood, will limp to the finish line in its final shortened season. Lastly, the impassioned performance of Viola Davis last night in the courtroom when the judge threatened to throw her in jail if she did not stop talking was one of the most brilliant performances I have ever seen on television; it gave me chills. Thursday is one of the most compelling nights of television and the ratings battle rages on. TGIT is looking like a force to be reckoned with on arguably the most important night for advertisers on television. Kudos to ABC for designing their equivalent of a scripted night of football, TNFF (Thursday Night Female Football).

Spot said...

Also the highest-rated college football game on ESPN this season: https://twitter.com/jksports/status/528214792910417921

Spot said...

Charlie Brown has already aired October 15th. Retaining 75% of that 15 days later is good

Spot said...

Dang! I knew Mom would hold 2/3rds of Big Bang's ratings, but what I didn't count on was The Big Bang Theory falling to a 4.1(I expected mid to high 4s)

Spot said...

FYI, per Joe Adalian, Scandal adjusted up to a 3.1, Elementary to a 1.2, 2.5 Men to a 2.4, Mom to a 2.5, and McCarthys to a 1.7

Spot said...

Ugly final adjustments for CBS.

Spot said...

2.31 NFL on NFLN (8:27 PM start)
1.73 NBA on TNT (8:02 PM)
1.63 CFB on ESPN (7:25 PM)
total: 5.67 A18-49

I'm not now saying those 3 games took 5.7 from broadcasters. In fact, there's not much of crossover, so surely it's not even 0.5. And I'm not saying broadcast will go up next week much - there will be sports next Thursday too. But those matches will rarely combine to almost 6 ratings, so this was unusually strong competition.

Spot said...

Scandal is absolutely killing it, it got adjusted up. On the other hand, CBS looks downright awful and they should be very afraid. For three reasons:
1) GA wasn't even on last night
2) NBC will significantly improve its act come midseason and one may argue that even FOX will too to some degree
3) They will need a few nights without Big Bang to prop it all up, which won't be pretty. They will probably do that in January to avoid NBC and ABC competition, otherwise it would e a bloodbath

Spot said...

Major downward adjustments for CBS. The whole Thursday line-up looks pretty shaky to me.

Spot said...

I disagree on comedy reign. No other comedy block can match that average.

Spot said...

Finals has Elementary -43% y2y! The season 2 premiere was -31%!

Spot said...

Eek, CBS is going south. Elementary is either Friday or Sunday-bound, Big Bang Theory is stuck in low 4's (okay, it's still good, but regardless), Mom isn't getting that big push people expected. 2.5 Men is doing what it did last season, and McCarthys is already 2 and done. Expect 2 hours of Chuck Lorre soon.

But TGIT is still kicking even without Grey's. Don't watch Scandal or Murder, but I'm rooting for them. I just really hope Pope and Reddington can coexist at the same time. Please. :(

Spot said...

Oh yeah by the way, Good Judge and B to Y are canceled but will still air thru their runs kthxbai.

Spot said...

Thanks for info.


It makes no sense not to put original episodes of some other show in that hour. That hypothetical show would be 3 weeks on, then 2 weeks off (Thanksgiving, Petar Pan), 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off, 4 weeks on, and then permanently moved elsewhere as The Blacklist comes into that timeslot.
But I think the best course of action would be to air The Blacklist repeats at Thursday 9 PM. It would kinda prepare people for upcoming timeslot change.

Spot said...

While one week does not a trend make, when The Big Bang Theory hits a season low this early in the new season and everything else on the net is down by so much, this could very well spell the end or at least the beginning of the end to their once very potent Thursday comedy lineup. The perfect storm of ABC's strong TGIT lineup coupled with all of the CBS show movement and the later debut of their scripted fare due to TNF, all conspired against CBS. It's way too early to pronounce TNF anything less than a big hit for CBS but the shortened season "might" have done irreparable harm to both their Monday and Thursday lineups of original programming. Once viewing patterns are set, they can sometimes be very challenging to change. I am absolutely convinced that NBC will harm The Blacklist with its move to Thursdays. The Superbowl ploy has certainly not worked very well for any show that aired after it in the last few years.

Spot said...

I think Pope and Reddington can coexist at the same time but Red is definitely going to be Pope's b_tch.:)

Spot said...

CBS 10/3/13 (The Millers premiere, The Crazy Ones timeslot premiere):
2.97 A18-49, 8-10 PM portion: 3.45

CBS 10/30/14 (The McCarthys premiere, Mom timeslot premiere):
2.18 = -26%, 8-10 PM: 2.68 = -22%

Spot said...

Sacrifical peacocks sacrificed.


They should air Blacklist repeats, save Hollywood Game Night for something better (unless they want to place Dateline and The Sing Off there, but I'm against it).

Spot said...

And with these cancellations it's the easiest 6 points almost all of us have made in the game (the other being Manhattan Love Story).

Spot said...

They might as well do 2 hour Biggest Loser now. Keep the good not great pairing of Loser and Parenthood for the final season of Parenthood. Biggest Loser usually grows during the telecast

Spot said...

I agree. It's a great comeback story for a show that many didn't think will last past one episode (even the series premiere trailer makes it look like a show that will crash during episode one and then get cancelled), and when it does, didn't think it can make it past season 1. And when it gets renewed for the 13-episode season 2, many thought it is a save-face renewal for Shonda Rhimes, and that it will get cancelled after the 13 episodes of season 2. When season 2 got extended to 22 episodes, I remembered quite a few eyebrows saying ABC made the decision way too early. And now? What a success. The increase in ratings is very rare for broadcast shows. And to a smaller extent this season, The Goldbergs is also experiencing a "sophomore climb".

Spot said...

I do think so too. The 10pm hour is generally watched less, so when dramas increase by one, there will be a bit of a hit for the others.

Spot said...

It sounds like he's specifically addressing comedy blocks.
Though ABC Wednesday averaged 2.55 this week.
CBS Thursday averaged 2.68. Not too far.

Spot said...

Was CBS's Thursday night comedy block really that powerful anyway? I mean, Big Bang made the whole thing look pretty great but if you take away that it's really just a bunch of marginal shows being held together by a gigantic hit. (Other than the year Big Bang/Two and a Half Men were paired, at least). The loss of the powerful CBS Mondays was more of a blow IMO.

Spot said...

Man, that's a rough number for Elementary. Can CBS really leave it there all season? There's an outside chance it could go sub-1.0 if it's already that low...

Spot said...

And now, the alphabet has learned the ABC of scheduling. (Yes, I went there.)

Avoid mixing single and multicam, or hangout with family comedy
Big emphasis on your strongest shows
Change show timeslots as sparingly as possible

If Scandal wins the Thursday showdown, ABC likely wins the season.

Spot said...

Would it be fair to say a one-off October 30 airing would probably have gone well into the 2s and actually been stronger than a regular Grey's?

Spot said...

Fairly low profile matchup (Cleveland at Cincinnati) next week. Well, unless Brian Hoyer gets hurt on Sunday, then Johnny Manziel starts and the game probably gets huge numbers. It'd sum up CBS's luck with TNF if that happens.

Spot said...

The difference being that CBS' Thursday has TBBT with a 4.1 holding everything together.
Modern Family does a 3.5 and there's more or less a tenth breaking the two comedy blocks apart.

Spot said...

Scandal has grown over 40% in the course of two seasons. That's massive for any show.

Spot said...

I think given the ratings dissimilarity with Scandal and The Blacklist, is safe to assume that Scandal will win.

Spot said...

ABC averaged a 2.55 this week for its comedy block with a below average The Middle. CBS averaged a 2.68 for the premiere of its block. Sure, your statement is still true but I would argue the difference is marginal enough to make the difference meaningless. And I think this block is much more dependent on BBT than ABC's is of Modern Family. I would argue that The Middle+The Goldbergs + Blackish are collectively stronger than The McCarthys, Two and a Half Men and Mom.

Spot said...

No, I don't think so. Last year's, Charlie Brown did a 2.2. Grey's does mid 2's.

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