Friday, October 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: A finals uptick reduced the drop for How to Get Away with Murder (2.8), though it still remained narrowly behind Scandal. Bones (1.7) actually went up to a new season high, while Reign (0.4) returned to its usual low level. Thursday Night Football (5.4) was exactly even week-to-week.
  • After a surprise turn as the top drama on ABC Thursday, How to Get Away with Murder (2.7) fell back behind Scandal (2.9) in week four. Grey's Anatomy (2.4) steadied at 8/7c.
  • NBC's Bad Judge (1.2) was down a tenth in week three, but the show remains quite close to its 1.3 premiere number, while Fox's Gracepoint (0.8) got even uglier. The CW got some relief after a couple bad Thursdays to open its season; The Vampire Diaries (0.9) rebounded to the premiere number, while Reign was up to its first 0.5 of the season.
  • All of this came against what should've been one of CBS' better Thursday Night Football games, combining a tight game with a higher-end matchup. But surprisingly, the preliminary numbers are very close to even week-to-week. We'll see how the finals look.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 2.4 36% +0%+0.0n/a 3/4 -11% -2% +100% 2.6
Scandal 2.9 37% -3%-0.1+0.0 4/4 -12% -5% +7% 2.8
How To Get Away With Murder 2.8 36% -10%-0.3-0.1 4/4 n/a -10% -16% 2.8
ABC:-6%+12%
Thursday Night Football Kickoff 2.2 39% +10%+0.2n/a 3/6 n/a +5% -58% 2.5
Thursday Night Football 5.4 43% +0%+0.0+0.2 4/6 n/a +2% +152% 5.7
CBS:+2%+84%
The Biggest Loser 1.3 35% +8%+0.1n/a 2/6 -43% +8% +18% 1.6
Bad Judge 1.2 33% -8%-0.1+0.1 3/3 n/a -8% +9% 1.5
A to Z 1.0 38% +0%+0.0-0.1 2/3 n/a +0% -17% 1.3
Parenthood 1.3 39% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/4 +0% +0% +0% 1.7
NBC:+1%+4%
Bones 1.7 33% +6%+0.1n/a 1/4 -15% +10% -17% 1.9
Gracepoint 0.8 27% -11%-0.1+0.1 3/3 n/a -6% -65% 1.1
Fox:+4%-43%
The Vampire Diaries 0.9 62% +13%+0.1n/a 1/3 -31% +20% -31% 0.9
Reign 0.4 40% +0%+0.0+0.1 1/3 -50% +0% -47% 0.5
CW:+13%-37%
Big5:-0%+13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

22 comments:

Spot said...

I believe Murder's drop leaves only the Voice Performance Show as the only non sports program to never go below a 3.0 as current megahits Walking Dead and Big Bang fell below that in their first seasons

Spot said...

Hasn't the Spring edition of The Voice dipped below 3?

Spot said...

SpotVault says that this spring, 4 weeks in a row we had 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 so I don't think so.


I wonder how much Big Bang could affect Grey's Anatomy...

Spot said...

SCANDAL trend from newest to oldest
Down -5% with W18-34 and -2% with W18-49.
W18-34: 3.9, 4.1, 4.4, 5.3
W18-49: 4.5, 4.6, 5.0, 6.0

HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER
Down -6% with W18-34, -9% with W18-49.
W18-34: 3.4, 3.6. 3.9, 4.5
W18-49: 4.5, 4.6, 5.0, 5.6

Interesting to note, REIGN popped up drastically with W18-34 (+133%),
W18-34: 0.7, 0.3, 0.5
W18-49: 0.7, 0.5, 0.6

Spot said...

Wow thanks a lot for these. That Reign jump is insane! Good for the show, I am feeling a bit more confident now about it!

Spot said...

I did really poorly with this last round. The only ones I got right where Mulaney and The Flash. The other ones were straight out wrongs.

As for more questions, I am surprised there will be nothing concerning the 2 Broke Girls/ The Millers combo. I was also hoping that you would give us a The 100 question on Wednesday since I legitimetely think there is a wide range of results possible there but I thought it was a long shot since you usually don't do returning shows that are back to the slot unless they are reality shows.

Anyway, may I ask, will we get the best case worst case for the millers and all the others? The Millers premieres next Monday.

Spot said...

Thanks a lot, Lynn.

This was strange week for "female" part of The CW dramas. Not regarding direction of ratings change, but magnitude of it:

W18-34 / w2w / show
1.3 / +30% / The Vampire Diaries (preliminary)
0.7 / -30% / The Originals
0.7 / +zillion / Reign (preliminary)
0.7 / premiere / Jane the Virgin

Spot said...

I think part of that can probably be explained by the rounding. It really makes a difference when we calculate those percentages since we are looking at values that are so small. It's still pretty strange how TO fell 30%.

Spot said...

Yes, last week Reign was at 0.4 in preliminaries, and Lynn now say it was 0.3 in finals, so it probably was around 0.35.
And opposite, The Vampire Diaries was 0.9 in preliminaries, with 1.0 in finals. Maybe there was minute or two of overrun into 9 PM hour, but I have no idea if there was.

Funny, Jane premiere adjusted too, it was 0.6 W18-34 in preliminaries, and 0.7 in finals.

Spot said...

Thanks a lot.

Reign / The Originals / Jane the Virgin W18-34 ratings are very interesting, as one of those 3 shows will go to Friday in midseason to make room for iZombie.
For The Messengers they have room on Wednesday, because The 100 have something like 16 episodes order only.
The Vampire Diaries W18-34 are a bit less interesting, simply because that show seems to be lock for renewal yet again with around 1.2 W18-34 average through 3 episodes.

Note: "go to Friday" means: if ratings are underwhelming. If ratings would be really bad for the lowest rated among those 3 shows, then Reign / The Originals would be burn off in summer, while Jane they would simply cancel after 13 episodes.

Spot said...

I will try to get it done by Monday, but I may just put The Millers numbers in a comment and save the full post for the 27th.

Spot said...

Got some ground to make up if I want a similar position to last year :S

Spot said...

Ok thanks!

Spot said...

Interesting that HTGAWM seems to skew older - I guess that, for all that it's a fast-paced Shonda legal drama, it's still a legal drama. The last one of those on network TV was infamously dead-skewing Harry's Law.

Spot said...

I believe the lasy legal drama was actually Rake, which didn't skew exceptionally old, but was a megabomb so it doesn't matter

Spot said...

I don't know if I would say it necessarily skews older. Most high viewing shows are going to be driven by older people..The shows that all have high W18-34 and low W50+ audience compositions are shows like originals (27%), new girl (24%), mindy project (23%), vampire diaries (23%), and america's next top model (17%) and they're all doing pretty bad in ratings.

Based on their average aud comp, Scandal ranks in the Top 10 for youngest W18-34 show (#8T) and is ranked #31T among W50+. (Ranked out of 102 total programs that have aired since the start of the season.)

SCANDAL
W18-34: 15%
W35-49: 17%
W50+: 41%

HTGAWM's audience comp for W18-34 is #22T/102 and #19T/102 among W50+
W18-34: 11%
W35-49: 15%
W50+: 43%

Spot said...

The Good Wife.

Spot said...

I missed Mulaney's poll, still with a good record.

Spot said...

I've got a Question - with a big write-up! - for the final CBS TNF, as I think that could be a huge one (Peyton Manning vs another elite team), and it might need to be if they're going to even begin to justify the deal. (And because it was an initial one-year deal, this number might legitimately have "renew/cancel" implications!)

Spot said...

CBS may not have a choice: "The agreement is for the 2014 season with an additional year at the NFL's option."

I kinda doubt CBS would be so dead-set against a second year that the NFL would agree to switch it to FOX or NBC.

Spot said...

Ah, I couldn't remember who had the second-year option on the deal!

Spot said...

I want to pick under on any line set for Empire.

In fact, I want to let "under" ride for this entire Winter/Spring.

I haven't paid attention to the ratings for about a month and it feels pretty good.

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