Friday, October 24, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/23/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football closed out its CBS run with its second-biggest number of the season (behind only the premiere). Nothing adjusted entertainment-wise, which Reign (0.5) is probably happy about.
  • TGIT has settled in, more than doubling the next biggest entertainment option in each hour; Grey's Anatomy (2.5), Scandal (3.0) and How to Get Away with Murder (3.0) were all slightly up from last week.
  • In the NBC/Fox battle for the leftovers, Bad Judge (1.0) finally took a significant drop from its premiere rating in week four, while Gracepoint (0.8) was even despite Bones (0.9) going into repeats. Reign is hoping for its first 0.5 of the season, but it also had a prelim 0.5 last week and later adjusted down.
  • And CBS appears to have gotten a big Peyton Manning bump in its final Thursday Night Football. More after finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 2.5 37% +4%+0.1n/a 3/5 -11% +4% +117% 2.6
Scandal 3.0 38% +3%+0.1+0.1 3/5 +3% +3% +5% 2.9
How To Get Away With Murder 3.0 38% +7%+0.2+0.1 4/5 n/a +7% +2% 3.0
ABC:+5%+22%
Thursday Night Football Kickoff 2.4 34% +9%+0.2n/a 3/7 n/a +9% -53% 2.6
Thursday Night Football 6.7 42% +24%+1.3+0.2 2/7 n/a +26% +205% 7.0
CBS:+25%+123%
The Biggest Loser 1.2 33% -8%-0.1n/a 6/7 -40% -4% -11% 1.4
Bad Judge 1.0 29% -17%-0.2-0.1 4/4 n/a -17% -9% 1.3
A to Z 0.9 37% -10%-0.1-0.2 4/4 n/a -10% -25% 1.3
Parenthood 1.2 39% -8%-0.1-0.1 5/5 -8% -8% -8% 1.6
NBC:-8%-12%
Bones (R) 0.9 26% -47% -67% 1.2
Gracepoint 0.8 29% +0%+0.0-0.8 3/4 n/a +0% -78% 1.2
Fox:-32%-73%
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 61% -11%-0.1n/a 3/4 -38% -16% -36% 0.8
Reign 0.5 50% +25%+0.1-0.1 1/4 -17% +11% -23% 0.6
CW:-7%-32%
Big5:+7%+10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

60 comments:

Spot said...

I've seen multiple articles discussing the lack of cancellations so far this season, but they bafflingly seem to ignore that very few shows have bombed badly enough to make it worthwhile to yank them off the schedule immediately.

Several shows that had weak premieres have held up unusually well in subsequent weeks (i.e. Red Band Society, Bad Judge, A-to-Z, The Mysteries of Laura, Forever). They're all pretty much dead shows walking but they're doing better than repeats, they're not harming anything and networks can't launch much new in October.

Gracepoint is doing badly, but it's self-contained, already filmed and Fox doesn't have much to replace it with, since Bones repeats probably wouldn't do any better, so they might as well let it run.

There's only really two shows on the schedule that are subject to being pulled: Mulaney and Manhattan Love Story. And given MLS was doing just about passably until last week, only really Mulaney.

So... it boils down to asking why Fox hasn't cancelled Mulaney. And who really knows? But it did rise a tenth in week 2 despite having a repeat as its lead-in and Fox is probably running short on Family Guy repeats.

Spot said...

Reign had a 0.45 last week. So the drop in the finals was a technicality in my book more than a real drop.

Elsewhere, TGIT is really dominating, I am happy for all three shows.

And that Bones repeat is a very impressive result. How can FOX ever let go of this show?

Spot said...

Gracepoint appears to be the second show on FOX this year to uptick when it's lead in when into repeats. Interesting

Spot said...

I am really surprised that Grey's Anatomy has settled in the mid 2's. I thought it would be flirting with high 1's with the season firmly underway, but now that's more likely to happen in the Spring. Though it's competition will be tougher with The Big Bang Theory coming back next week, it'd have to ding Grey's by more than a point to drag it down to Once: Wonderland/Last Resort/Charlie's Angels/My Generation levels. ABC has a show that's finally transcended their timeslot curse a la Revenge on Wednesdays at 10:00 in 2011.

Spot said...

Most of the time I think it's a rounding thing at play. And I wouldn't be surprised if Gracepoint rounds down to merely be even week-to-week.

Spot said...

Mulaney's timeslot doesn't even have to be patched with Family Guy repeats. Bob's Burgers can go back to 9:30 until the Spring when they launch Bordertown. Unless Fox is aiming a new project out of him, I expect an announcement by late next Friday that Mulaney is cancelled and will be burned off later in the season (or summer).

Spot said...

I think what the 8pm hour has taken, the TGIT promotion has made up for. Additionally, and while I am always wary of using this sort of thing as arguments, this season of GA appears to be the best well received in a long time. Ellen Pompeo and Meredith have gone front and center again which she hasn't done in years. Maybe that's also helping a bit.

Spot said...

Continued validation for TGIT and ABC's bold decision; I was doubtful the most about Grey's move to the early hour. If it can stay at 2.0 or higher against powerhouse Big Bang, I bow to the programming genius(es) at ABC:)

NBC's Thursday sched is looking an awful like the last few years: wretched. CBS landed a great NFL matchup for the season finale of TNF. It will be interesting in the coming weeks to see where the mostly large male demographic which watched TNF will tune in. I am guessing that the NFL network might pick up a few more viewers but I don't see a seismic increase which leaves a lot of viewers up for grabs for the broadcast networks. Makes me wonder whether this wasn't a lost opportunity for NBC to start The Blacklist next week on Thursday to capture some of that football demographic. They could have primed the pump, so to speak, by running encore episodes of The Blacklist in the first weeks of the Fall season and ended next Monday's with a cliffhanger that would be resolved on Thursday of the same week. Once viewing patterns are set, it's sometimes challenging to break them. The Blacklist isn't the water cooler show it used to be.

Spot said...

W18-34 preliminary - The Vampire Diaries 1.1 / Reign 0.7. But usually both are adjusted in finals, so it could easily be 1.2 / 0.6.
The Vampire Diaries stabilized at low-for-itself level, yet still high-for-CW level.
Reign stabilized too, but low on both accounts. If it is 0.6 W18-34 after all, it would tie its season-high from week before, as well as Monday's Jane the Virgin 0.6 W18-34 (which I believe is Jane's target demo). Someone yesterday said The 100 premiere got same 0.6, but in M18-34. I don't know if CW can monetize M18-34 subdemo, but if they can... the plot
thickens.

Disgracepointless stable too. But it's soundly beaten by Red Band Society, which itself is a flop, so I would dump it to Friday. Because Saturdays are college football games for at least month more.

After seeing this NBC Thursday comedies ratings, I'm not sure anymore why I think Marry Me will be canceled. It's still least bad rated NBC comedy, and some face saving renewal is more likely than bear eating all 7 of them (3 more rookies will premiere in winter/midseason).

Spot said...

The Flash and, particularly, Arrow (in addition to the 100) do really well with the M18-34 demo so I don't know why the CW wouldn't sell that demo. It would actually make sense to sell Wednesdays mostly based on that demo, no? I imagine FOX does something similar for Sundays.


This season I've been keeping track of these gender breakdowns and one thing I found really striking is that there are only 10 shows that truly skew male (excluding sports obviously). One is sports lead-out 60 Minutes so I don't really count. Then there is the 4 FOX cartoons (maybe Bob's too but I don't have its 7pm numbers) and the 4 comic based shows (Shield, Gotham, Flash and Arrow). Other than that, it's only the 100 (which might be in part at least due to the arrow lead-in). It's very cliche and very "what I would expect" but I still find it interesting.


As for Marry Me, I agree with you but at the same time, they have such a deep bench of comedies that I wonder if they can really afford to waste this one after the voice the whole season? I don't know what to think. I also think that if they are going to give a pity renewal to something they would be better of doing it to About a Boy since it has more 13 episodes under its belt for whatever it is worth. But the advantage is small.

Spot said...

1. Networks sell roughly 75% of inventory during upfonts, so it's questionable how much ads can The CW sell based on M18-34 ratings during this season.
2. The vampire Diaries ad rates are every year higher than its A18-49 ratings. But not as high as its W18-34 ratings. So i always suspected they can't sell all of TVD invnetory to W18-4 buyers. Meaning, they must settle then for selling at "A18-49 price" for the rest of the ads. So maybe same is for M18-34. If what I said about TVD is true at all.

Spot said...

Grey's is -15% y2y at this point. The last three seasons have been -13% and the last 5 have never been more than -16%. So it is a GREAT performance

Spot said...

Your theory in 2. does makes sense. I've long suspected that there is a combination of both involved so that makes sense .

Spot said...

Yeah it's incredible. I am just trying to contain the excitement a bit until Big Bang shows up in the hour but it's really unclear to me if there will be much of an effect there. And then of course the spring declines are bound to be uglier than usual. But once thing at a time .

Spot said...

As everyone as said, hardest one yet.

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

NBC cancelled all of its new sitcoms in 2012-2013: 1600 Penn, Animal Practice, Go On, Guys with Kids, The New Normal, and Save Me. And if you include cancelled-before-it-premiered Next Caller, that would make it the exact same number as this season. The main difference is that NBC at least still had Parks & Recreation and Community after ended the above listed (plus Whitney and The Office). That won't come to pass this time around, so if Marry Me squeaks by that would be why in my mind.



If NBC moves Marry Me out of the direct post-Voice slot, though, then we'll have some idea how they feel about a season 2. Even moving up a half-hour to About a Boy's slot is a damning demotion since it clearly can't be a comedy anchor and that's what NBC needs to find.

Spot said...

The spring declines may not hurt as much simply because Scandal will still be on the schedule. Plus TBBT will have to sprinkle more repeats than usual in the hour thanks to the Monday jerkaround, and if CBS actually follows through on the Mom/The Millers swap the hour will be easier than last year's The Crazy Ones/2.5 Men & 2.5 Men/Bad Teacher. Over on NBC, their Thursday promotion is going to be more focused on the later hours with The Blacklist/Allegiance. With all of that and ABC's split-season scheduling, Grey's is set up pretty nicely.

Spot said...

Renew, not confident

Spot said...

Well, it has been as low as a 2.2 in the 8:00 half hour. Which is troubling going head to head with Big Bang. The good news is November 2nd daylight savings time is over. This should give a nice HUT increase to allow them to coexist

Spot said...

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Spot said...

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Spot said...

I meant 6 newbies + About A Boy = all 7 cancelled + P&R ending.
It seems possible (or even likely? ) all 7 would have ratings in cancellation territory, right? But it also seems impossible they would actually cancel all 7, right?

But thanks for the example nevertheless. I remember they axed a lot of comedies together with Go On, but I wasn't aware it was such a sitcomocide.

Spot said...

renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Oh, how I wish we had quarter-hour breakdowns. This one doesn't seem confident at all. Still, Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

I've heard others point out that Cristela's fate may be tied to that of Last Man Standing, and that ABC may be considering a cancellation of Last Man Standing now that they have a "bare minimum" syndication package. If so, and if Cristela doesn't show truly independent heat, then I don't see how you can pick renew, even if I'm not confident enough to risk two points.

Spot said...

A thing was pointed out to me recently - while Grey's Anatomy has been going up against big ratings on CBS, sports and primetime soaps may not necessarily overlap in audience. We may want to watch next week to see if it can hold up against Big Bang, or if the return of CBS Comedy to the night induces the Mork & Mindy Curse as I predicted before the start of the season.

I wonder if that wonky "Denver is now America's Team" poll (sample size: 1.5k, which is probably too low to be making this determination anyway) was in any way skewed by Peyton being so heavily associated w/ the sport. (to the point that I see him doing Nationwide commercials when I watch NASCAR, although that also makes sense since they sponsor NASCAR's second-tier series until the end of this year, although they'll be moving on to "America's Driver", Dale Jr., starting next year)

Spot said...

Be interesting to see those numbers in a few years once Osweiler (or someone else) takes over under center in Denver.

I did believe this early stretch was actually the easiest of the year for ABC and they had to make hay - 3.0 already for Scandal is actually some way below what I thought it could get with no entertainment competition. (TNF was already there in the fall, it was just cable competition - at levels typically in the 3s and 4s IIRC.) Next week is huge for the lineup.

Spot said...

It would entirely make sense.

Some advertisers will be shooting for a broader A18-49 crowd with A18-34 preferred due to scarcity and possibly less fixed brand preferences. Probably the majority of the big advertisers - cellphone networks, supermarkets, restaurant chains - would be in that category.

However, some companies will primarily be after male, particularly young male, eyeballs - beer brewers being the classic example. And others will be laser focused on W18-34s - makeup companies, for instance.

So different companies go after different demos, each show has its own projected audience in each of them, and advertisers pay up when they think the value of those ad spots to them exceeds the asking price. Which, for TVD, is mainly going to be the case for the W18-34-centric advertisers. (Are the breaks in TVD a succession of adverts clearly aimed at that demo?)

Spot said...

It'd have been an interesting move, effectively a midseason relaunch in late October with the Friday lineup also coming on stream there. They might even have done it, launching State of Affairs the following Monday... If they didn't have the Super Bowl. It's pretty obvious they decided they'd use that to maximise the strength of the Blacklist transition to Thursday, and built the rest of the schedule around it.

Spot said...

I, for one, stopped watching The Blacklist, though I will say it is more due to preferences and lack of time. But I also did somewhat lose interest. Some shows, in my opinion, are worth watching for one season, but to come back year after year to the same concept is difficult for someone like me unless I am interested enough in the premise to begin with. I love to watch POI at the beginning, but gave it up because I just couldn't stomach watching the same format for multiple seasons. Same goes for The Blacklist, the concept of RED working with the FBI is interesting for a season, but to come back to the show for a second season where everything is pretty much the same (Red being cool and collected, engages in a self-indulgent monologue, kills someone along the way, the girl being flustered, FBI being non-relevant, suddenly someone is a spy and attacks them) is asking for a lot more.

Spot said...

I too believe LMS is done, but I don't think ABC wants to go into next season without a veteran multi-cam. I'm thinking next season ABC launches a multi-cam with an established actress as the lead, and keeps Cristela as the lead-out, or as a backup for the hour.

Spot said...

ABC's certainly not shown a convincing dedication to the format in the past. I don't know why that would change now, particularly w/ last night's numbers.

Spot said...

Financial obligations. Same reason ABC let Eastdick go on for so long (i.e. 11 episodes) back in 2010. (although those weren't enough to get the other eps the light of day, even in the summer)

Spot said...

Just hold your breath, though - the real test, particularly for Grey's, comes next week.

Spot said...

Probably a coincidence. Maybe some of the handful of Nielsen homes who actually enjoy it tuned back in this week after forgetting to last - or there was an overall PUT bump.

Spot said...

They won the bidding war for Tim Allen and brought in Reba. I don't think they want to abandon the format. So, even if ABC should give up on multi-cams and TGIF, I don't think Paul Lee will make that decision.

Spot said...

It's another situation where the end of a show that had had the bloom go off resulted in it bleeding further, a la Desperate Housewives, and the last show that compelled me to cite Housewives as an example of this phenomenon.

Spot said...

Yes, but those decisions are from several years ago. They didn't even try anything behind LMS in season three, instead burning off their ill-advised season two of The Neighbors. And Cristela kinda feels like an "eh, we only gotta tolerate this one more year" feel to it.

Spot said...

Friday or not, ABC is still trying multi-cams. They even got a head start with that ill-advised Uncle Buck pilot.

Spot said...

Renew (confident)

Spot said...

I don't know, all that sounds like CBS' repeated attempts to pick up single-cams only to either kill them at pilot stage or kill them anywhere between two eps to one whole season in.

Maybe when LMS ends, they try a new multi-cam. But it doesn't feel like that's realistic. And I just don't know if Cristela has a a future even alongside that multi-cam.

Spot said...

The difference is that Paul Lee really likes multi-cams and Nina & Les have been keeping up appearances with single-cams.

Spot said...

You mean in two weeks. Next week ABC is preempting it for an Halloween special.

Spot said...

I agree with everything you've said, well put. That's also the reason I think about ratings, which is why I think the subdemos are so important. This season I've been keeping a very close track of them.

Spot said...

Yes for the remainder of the fall. The reverse of that coin is of course that come spring there will be DST to deal with again without any "fall hype" to help it. But I think GA will be fine though.

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Oh, they are? Hadn't seen that. Seems odd timing for one, in a season where the numbers aren't abortion-level bad.

Spot said...

I haven't gotten that vibe off of Lee. I've gotten an "I really like cross-dressing and misogyny" vibe, but not an "I legit like multi-cams" vibe.



It might make more sense given him being from Britain, though, since multi-cams have apparently endured better than over here.

Spot said...

And when we think about it, I think the most common reason people track ratings is to check if their shows are headed for cancellation. What determines that? Well, A18-49 correlates pretty well, and total viewers don't, and if TVBTN has done anything, it's bringing awareness of that to a broader audience. But there's other factors in play too - the nebulous effects of syndication, of course, but also those sub-demos that clearly play a role in setting the ad market. A18-49 does not explain the true value of the Sunday or Tuesday comedies to FOX - cue shock at ultra-favourably-skewing Mindy Project's early renewal from those who hadn't noticed how concentrated that small audience was in a key sub-demo. There's plenty of advertisers out there who would far rather advertise in Mindy than to the broader and larger (even in A18-49) Bones audience - it's more desirable airwave real estate for certain advertisers. (Obviously, the reverse is true for others.)

Spot said...

ABC probably thought TBB's somewhat-inflated big return to Thursday would hurt Grey's.

Spot said...

I was thinking the TGIF kitch angle. Plus, multi-cams have been very profitable for CBS.

Spot said...

Well said, I agree ;)

Spot said...

I am not sure what is it about. Might be to avoid the first big bang on Thursday, but it may also be because they have some sort of plan as to why they would need more Grey's for later in the season (double pumps of Secrets and Lies?). Of course, being ABC, it could also be because they will air TGIT randomly mixed originals/repeats as they've done with Wednesday for years.

Spot said...

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Spot said...

To be fair, though, they haven't been as profitable on the backend, because all the ones that last have been WBTV productions.

(on a tangential note, have I ever mentioned how confusing it is to type "WBTV" in reference to a production studio since one of my local affiliates has a very similar callsign?)

Spot said...

Hmm, does it count if FOX picks up Cristela instead of ABC?

Spot said...

Hell, I don't know.

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