Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 10/1/14: Will Viewers Follow Stalker Home?


CBS finishes out its new fall drama slate with the premiere of Stalker, airing after the season premiere of Criminal Minds. It actually takes some real effort to pull off (as of this writing) a 17 rating on Metacritic. (Even everyone's favorite punching bag Work It had a 19!) But poor critical reviews have never stopped Criminal Minds, and this show has the kind of dark and twisted premise that might appeal to the key demo more than the average CBS procedural. Nashville and Chicago PD should not be formidable competition, so I expect the vast majority of the Minds demo to stick around, at least for tonight. Will viewers follow Stalker home? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 1, 2014.

Criminal Minds and CSI Last Season
2.8/2.49/2.7 (Criminal Minds premiere/avg/finale)
2.0/1.90/1.9 (CSI premiere/avg/finale)

Over/Under: 2.45.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

82 comments:

Spot said...

2.4 Under

Spot said...

Under with a 2.0.

Spot said...

UNDER since it won't have to reach as high as 2.45 to easily win that hour. Not even NCIS New Orleans reached it for its 2nd episode that guest starred Michael Weatherly.

Having seen the pilot episode already, it's not as bad as the McCarthys or ABC's Tuesday love comedies. Critics can't stand that Criminal Minds has been as successful as it has been since 2005 so they were ready to pounce on this similar show.

It's not a boring start, Maggie Q is appealing and creator Kevin Williamson borrows much from his "Scream" film bag of tricks.

Spot said...

I'm pretty intrigued to check this one out. Partly for Maggie Q - hoping this show does better for her.

A touch UNDER but still good 2.3-2.4

Spot said...

Please no. Under

Spot said...

Secrets and Lies is Thursdays at 10 once Murder Finishes (it's only 15-16 episode season) and American Crime is Sundays at 9 once Resurrection finishes (it's also only a 15-16 episode season), so neither is available.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Well maybe you are right. To be honest, talking about FOX schedule is so depressing at this point. It just feels like we are rearranging chairs in a sinking ship and that no matter what we do the end result will be about the same.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under. I don't see it beating New Orleans.

Spot said...

I'm inclined to agree that Whispers at 8 makes sense.

If we accept that Nashville had to be on the sked somewhere and a non-move at least helped free some ad spots for yet more Shonda trailers, the back half of the ABC week looks fantastic. Monday's a very well proven "hang tough on a brutal night" setup too. Tuesdays? Blergh. I'd say quarantine it, but SHIELD means too much to the network - or, perhaps more pertinently, its parent company - to do that. Blergh.

Spot said...

Beyond The Tank to replace *a* comedy hour is a given. There's a legitimate question as to which, and we might have a better answer after the Cristela premiere.

Spot said...

I won't be surprised at a higher number since the Premiere Week hype will have faded for Chicago PD. And even if Stalker doesn't cross this Line tonight it can in future weeks since CBS seems to be the slow-and-steady network that peaks later in the season. But I think CBS' audiences are starting to tire of sitting through the same show back-to-back, which is what Criminal Minds and Stalker essentially are.

Under.

Spot said...

Yes, you summed it perfectly. This season Fox is all about cutting their losses. Except maybe Sunday & Monday.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Seems like I gave too much credit for Selfie, this is close to what I've been expecting before I thought Selfie could do better due to critics reviews and Karen's appeal with fans of Doctor Who (although I don't really see how Selfie could have the same public as DW). Forever did bad perhaps due to its lead in, but being a lead in dependent show don't look good (at least isn't DOA like all the shows in that slot last year).

Spot said...

Yes. To clarify, I meant to say exactly that.

Only, before today I was sure Friday block is one that will be yanked. But from today's comments here, now I see my scenario has a weak spot: it means low rated comedy block would lead into S.H.I.E.L.D. Which ABC might want to avoid, thus killing Tuesday comedy block instead.

I understand now, I stand corrected. Yes, *a* comedy hour, not necessarily Friday comedy hour.

Spot said...

Under. I get the vibe that Stalker is this year Hostages, may premiere decent but will fall apart and be over by December.

Spot said...

Under. Should have decent retention, but CBS is low on 10 p.m. shows that hit over a 2.0

Spot said...

I'm guessing barely under at 2.4, but it holds very well from then on.

Spot said...

Over, 2.7-2.9

Spot said...

The only reasons that could make this hit above is because of some type of Kevin Williamson torture pr0n groupie thing and that this could could skew much younger than the average CBS procedural and CM spikes higher because Jennifer Love Hewitt bought her boob troop and they decided to stay for the human bonfire afterwards.

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Maybe you just get that vibe because the two shows have the same lead actor and try to be thrillers rather than dramas ;)

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

I never got the negative reviews for Criminal Minds. It has become my all time favorite shows. But apparantly I just have poor taste as I usually think the "critically acclaimed" shows are pretty bad. Anyways, people have criticized this show for things that almost every drama has. I think there's a lot of antifan bandwagon. Anyways, I see Jennifer Love Hewitt and a stronger Survivor boosting Criminal Minds, so I'll go *very* tentatively with Over

Spot said...

Criminal Minds had a 2.7 finale. It would he disappointing to go down from there

Spot said...

As you well know, I'm someone who isn't backward on calling out questionable content, but you pointed out a couple days ago that it's pretty darned widespread and some shows just seem to be in the firing line for that criticism. We all know that ultimately the networks are just trying to get those 18-49/18-34 eyeballs any way they can, and if that's with blatant sexism and dreadful manipulation then that says a lot about society.

I'm just glad that there's a space like this where we can talk a little about the shows and a lot about the numbers. (TVBTN is fast veering away from that.)

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under at 2.2. Criminal Minds should be at about 2.6ish, and I can see this having decent retention for at least the pilot. I'm gonna say it settles at just below CSI levels (so even in Plus).

Spot said...

Seriously, Criminal Minds has lots of violence and sexual content, but its never shown in a positive light. The show is about an antistalking unit, not the stalkers themselves. Anyways, I'm glad we have a Troll free environment. There was a guy who mentioned the Dish Network Hopper in every comment, but he always said something relevent, so I don't mind. TVBTN is a trollfest

Spot said...

ABC comedies Power Rankings are quickly turning into a borefest.

3.91 Modern Family
3.32 Black-ish
2.44 The Goldbergs
2.19 The Middle

----
1.6 Selfie
1.5 Manhattan Love Story

--- not premiered yet
Last Man Standing
Cristela
Fresh off the Boat

--- hopefully premieres never
Galavant

Spot said...

I can't believe I guessed right the overall ratings for Selfie and Manhattan Love Story (although I predicted Selfie two tenths higher and MLS two tenths lower)

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under. I told myself to stop going over on CBS questions, and Stalker is not the show that's going to get me to break my very new rule.

Spot said...

Damn so given the finals, the moderator was JUST over the #s with his line. Bravo.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

SHIELD is in trouble.


ABC comedies adjusted up but I'm relieved they still finished under the line, what's up with those adjustments?

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Only thing I can think of is - in March Disney made some deal with Dish about turning off AutoHop for ABC shows:
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/04/technology/innovation/dish-disney/
"AutoHop would specifically be disabled within the three-day period of time when networks charge advertisers for views of their ads."

Other broadcasters doesn't have similar deal, so maybe that's it. Before you ask, Dish Network has around 14M subscribers. According to Wikipedia:
"As of November 2013, the company provided services to just over fourteen million subscribers."

Spot said...

Deadline says Fox pulled Utopia from Tuesday (but not from Friday), and moved MasterChef Junior to Tuesday 8 PM, with early November premiere. There's 4 Tuesdays until November to fill. I guess they'll put Gotham repeats until baseball starts.

Spot said...

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Family Guy and either Mulaney or Brooklyn Nine-Nine reruns subbing in for that hour. Nine-Nine is used to the night while Mulaney would get extra sampling.

Spot said...

It pains me to predict that it will perform better than Spot's line. OVER. (2.6) Interesting contrast in their respective portrayal of women between The Good Wife and Stalker. Will CBS' upcoming Super Girl be enough for everyone to forgive CBS for Stalker? I don't always agree with critical reviews but when they are resoundingly awful, I have to believe there is something meaningful there. Stalker's metacritc review score of 17 is the lowest score of any new television show. 22 out of 24 critics essentially are saying it is worthless garbage. Utopia rates twice as high as Stalker on the metacritic scale.

Spot said...

Wow for Selfie and MLS, I seriously thought they would be much lower out of the gate.

Spot said...

They could always alter the plans for Galavant and stick it in a profoundly incompatible block w/ Fresh Off The Boat. It's not like Paul Lee hasn't done such crackpot scheduling before. And that's just if the price tag of abandoning comedies in that slot at midseason (or of moving Galavant from its currently scheduled deployment in between Once half-seasons) is prohibitive of them deploying one of the drama backups (like Members Only) in that slot.

Spot said...

You guessed it well. Or at least better than me.
Deadline now updated article with more details:
"For the next two weeks, Fox will air encores of the season premieres of Family Guy, The Simpsons and Bob’s Burgers in the Tuesday 8 PM hour, with postseason baseball taking over the night for the following two weeks".

Besides, Gotham repeats are already airing on Friday.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Well, that's understandable on SHIELD's part - it still feels a tad lacking in the soul department, despite all the advances that have been made post-Winter Soldier.

Ironic, really, that it took SHIELD's retreat in the MCU for SHIELD to advance creatively, and that it's still retreating ratings-wise.

Spot said...

Too ***REDACTED*** close for my tastes, man. I had the under. One more tenth to either and I would've lost another ABC line.

Spot said...

Galavant can't REALLY be that bad, can it? It's not like the subject matter is inherently offensive in musical form, a la Cop Rock. And Glee was accused by many of being a good show at some point in its run.

Or maybe I'm being a dolt again - I did in fact see that upfront trailer.

Spot said...

That was my hunch even before I found a Variety article about it. If the plan was good enough for the summer, why not now? My only surprise is that they are giving space to Bob's Burgers considering it's stranded in the Sunday 7:30 half-hour. I figured it would be lower-priority than the live-action sitcoms for extra space on the sked.

Spot said...

Perhaps Fox still has some sentiment for Bob's. Or perhaps the long-term math says they need to save their repeat allotment of Family Guy and Simpsons for later in the season. (I recall something along the lines of the networks having a limited number of times they can repeat any given episode of any given show)

Spot said...

Well, Patback (is it alright if I call you that?), sometimes you're the fish, sometimes you're the bear. (I've certainly been the former plenty of times when underestimating ABC this year, and am happy to have escaped w/ a victory by being a downer on their shows)

Spot said...

This is all going to come down to the size of the Criminal Minds audience, and how interested that audience is in having another show of a similar caliber. I don't think there's quite enough there in either section to get a 2.5 or better. Under.

Spot said...

Trailer = Confusing and not unveiling much. If I remember well, and I don't.
Genre = Crossover, kinda unusual, musical/horror/comedy. Well, maybe if it was by Bryan Fuller I'd... no, not even then I wouldn't consider it.
Financially / ratings = Unimportant, it's said only 8 half-hour episodes is ordered, for airing on Sundays in Jan/Feb between two OUAT half-seasons.

But the point is Galavant has that "handpicked by Paul Lee" stamp all over it. The one we all know very well ever since Work It, the one that we're all aware what it means.

Spot said...

I honestly think the main characters of Criminal Minds are very developed. I guess its just because its really one of my all time favorite shows, so I take it personally. Anyways, critical reception isn't important for CBS. Critics bash the sitcoms and procedurals. The only CBS shows critics like are the Good Wife and Person of Interest. The latter is on the lower tier of their dramas and the former has completely awful ratings. Critics hate NCIS and Big Bang, but they are on top. CBS is critic proof

Spot said...

Under at 2.2ish

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

under slightly

Spot said...

surprised at the skew of both comedies, thought they would at least get into the high 40s

Spot said...

I'm going under. Scorpion and NCIS: NO have been getting way more attention to CBS, and it has a very unsettling premise compared to the other two. Now, I could be wrong as I see a chance for it to deviate from what I say, but I don't expect it to last long. Full season at best, all produced aired at worst, what with the harsh criticisms given, several dramas coming that could have bigger chances of success (Cyber in the CSI family, Battle Creek with creators of Breaking Bad and House behind it), and the determination on how well pilots are this season, could be bad for a panned series like this. But this is the universe where Work It of all things was picked up, so what do I know?

Spot said...

FOX needs Bob to fill in when Mulaney tanks.

Spot said...

I'm excited, but UNDER.


2.3-2.4

Spot said...

UNDER

Spot said...

Hadn't thought about that.

Spot said...

Under at a 2.3

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under solely because it stars Dylan McDermott.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I really don't think SHIELD is in much trouble. If it is cancelled, ABC will have to do an all new Tuesday night line-up again. Out of all the shows on Tuesday, I think SHIELD looks most promising to stay, as the sophomore that rated highest of the very weak Tuesday block.

Spot said...

I agree. Tuesdays could be quarantine if it wasn't for the fact that they have a very important sophomore in the middle of it. As it stands, they need to do something to ensure that Marvel remains a viable brand for them. I wonder if they should have done with double Marvel after all. I love the idea of Carter bridging it and I think it's perfect for the show to have a bridge, especially one that keeps interest in the original show alive, but maybe the benefits of a companion show and a promotable block would have won out.

In any case, I also think the solution of Shark Tank (or a Shark Tank spin off) is quite neat. It would provide a solid and actually probably compatible base for Shield to build on with all its M18-34 that come to the network only to watch it.

Spot said...

Oh, I went over on those two, but the other three CBS questions (NCIS:NO, TAR, LA) have been my only blown predictions thus far. For some reason I've been overly optimistic regarding CBS this season.

Spot said...

I think that would do even worse than the comedies they currently have there, so I don't see the upside. So far, Beyond the Tank | Shield | The Whispers is the most coherent plan I've seen for their midseason.


If Forever is still showing pulse, I say kick Nashville to the summer and move it to Wednesdays.

Spot said...

I disagree that critics hate The Big Bang Theory. It's an Emmy-award winning sitcom that I haven't heard or read gripes about when Jim Parsons take the statue for Lead Actor in a Comedy Series. This past year it felt like the probable winner for Outstanding Comedy Series but inertia continued to favor Modern Family.


I know that awards/nominations don't necessarily equate to critical reception, but just because critics aren't fawning over Big Bang like Veep, Girls (inexplicably), or Parks and Recreation with the same amount of frevor/intensity doesn't mean it's hated. I think it's because Big Bang is a broad-based hit that they don't feel compelled to be full-throated.

Spot said...

It's voyeurism meets moralism, which is a pretty darned easy mix for critics to target but also seems to chime pretty well with my impression of much of US culture from my transatlantic vantage point.

Spot said...

Okay, that's true. I think its because everyone on the internet thinks they have the power to brand something "Critically Acclaimed" and whatnot the distinction between critic and blogger is blurred. Also, I'm a male university student, so I hear a lot of CBS hate/HBO fauning from my peers.

Spot said...

If I thought that putting DWTS there would honestly help Shield I would agree but I don't think it would do anything for it.

Spot said...

Stars was a few ticks stronger at 8:30 during Premiere Week than MLS, and SHIELD still kept the same skew week to week. Both are shows that ABC wants to bill as four-quadrant/family-friendly (not that I necessarily believe that but that's the network's stump line for both). Just food for thought...

Spot said...

That's my biggest problem w/ such shows, that they're designed to reinforce certain unsavory aspects of this culture.

Spot said...

Oddly, my pessimism on CBS has made me 4-2 thus far, as I blew Madam Sec and Scorpion vs. Gotham but have thus far been right on the last three (and, as of today's ratings sheet, Stalker as well).

Spot said...

As an anti-stalker police who also stalks people, to boot!

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