Wednesday, October 8, 2014

First Two Weeks, The Mysteries of Laura


WEEK ZERO (Wednesday 10/9c preview)
Rating: 2.0
Lead-in: America's Got Talent (2.4 overall, 2.7 at 9:30)
Competition: Nashville (R) (0.7), Extant (1.1).


WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: The Middle / The Goldbergs (2.2/2.4), Survivor (2.7 overall, 2.7/2.9 in 8:00 hour), Hell's Kitchen (1.3), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.5).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.5 (+0%)
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: The Middle / The Goldbergs (2.0/2.3), Survivor (2.4), Hell's Kitchen (1.4), Arrow (R) (0.2).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Thursday, October 9 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

36 comments:

Spot said...

Spot, do you have any estimates on what NBC local programming would look like. My affiliate has Wheel of Fortune, which looks like a nice lead in for Laura, but if the rest are airing like 'Til Death reruns, it will make Laura seem more impressive

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident). This is cheaper than Revolution. It fits thematically with the night. But its ratings simply aren't great. NBC is doing okay with drama right now. Chicago Fire, SVU, and Chicago PD nailing down the procedurals well. I could see being renewed, but I just doubt it. 1.5 in week 2 at 8 on Wednesdays will probably be at best a 1.2 in post DST March.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident). Clearly, NBC really wants to have a Debra Messing show in their lineup, but despite the good second-week hold and a probably back-nine order, I could see a fairly steady decline for this show over the season.

Spot said...

This would be so easy if we had a confirmation that SVU was going to be renewed. As it stands, SVU may be too costly to get another season. And I didn't like that PD number at all last week. But Laura is still performing poorly IMO

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

I don't know about every NBC affiliate, but I can tell you that NBC's O&O in DC (WRC-TV) airs NBC Nightly News/Access Hollywood in the 7:00 hour; that actually makes us an anomaly since NBC Nightly News typically airs at 6:00 local time on affiliates.

My gut instinct is that NBC affiliates air higher-profile syndicated shows like Access Hollywood, Entertainment Tonight, The Big Bang Theory, Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy!, etc. than things like Til Death. Take that for what it's worth.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

With Spot's projection of 1.70 league average, and counting only two episodes in its regular timeslot, Laura is at 88 A18-49+. It's bound to drop even lower. If not before, then in spring when 8 PM shows are traditionally hit by low HUT levels. It's a procedural, so maybe drop won't be very steep, but I cannot see Laura finishing above 80 A18-49+. NBC drama department is nowadays too healthy for subpar renewals (except when there's syndication reasons).
I don't think cancel is 100% sure, but it's close enough to it for me to try and go for 2 points.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

I'm not 100%.. but willing to take the risk on this one to try and get more points!

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

The Mysteries of Laura has to be cheaper than Revolution for NBC. And NBC is going to have other holes to worry about in 2015-2016: Thursdays at 8:00 is a definite, but Mondays at 10:00, Tuesdays at 9:00, and Thursdays at 10:00 could end up problem spots once The Blacklist moves, The Voice contracts for the comedy block, and if the post-TB drama Allegiance falls through, respectively. Ultimately, though, if NBC were high on this show it would have been scheduled better like being held for midseason and getting the TB lead-out or post-The Voice slot if State of Affairs is a non-starter.

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

cancel (confident)


Only cuz it gets more potential points. I'm not confidently confident.

Spot said...

My local NBC affiliate airs Inside Edition / Modern Family is the 7 o'clock hour. Reruns of shows like 'Til Death are shoved off to CW at 3am (at least in my area).

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident).

It'll need a pretty good hold from here, but that week 2 and the fact it's a procedural suggest that a pretty good hold is in fact very possible.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Procedural=syndication happy, great hold week 2, but nothing to brag about. Just playing it safe.

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

cancel - confident

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident). I see it settling at a okay 1.2-1.3 level by the end of the season. However, the only way it has a chance is if SVU is cancelled and the mideason dramas flop.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident) - I don't expect it to improve on Revolution's numbers.

Spot said...

Years ago, I made TitanTV listings for the top 100 or so affiliates for each network.

For 7:30 tonight, NBC affiliates will air:

Access Hollywood 14
ET 10
Inside Edition 8
Extra 8
The Insider 2
The List 2

Wheel 18
Jeopardy 13
Celebrity Name Game (?) 1
Millionaire 1

local news 17

Judge Judy 1
Big Bang Theory 1
Modern Family 1

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

Renew (Not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident). The show doesn't seem that strong, but the fact that it grows from first half hour to second for makes me feel surprisingly optimistic. I also think it brings some dynamic to the day as a whole and that it will hold up better in the second half of the season due to its older skew. And the "Confident" is only because I am in All-or-Nothing mode for this game

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel confident

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

It may be holding on now, and it ma even still be on the bubble by the end of the season, but I think NBC will eventually decide to let it go. Like The Cape, I'm not actually that confident on this, but I don't see the point in hedging in this game. Gotta go for the big points!

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

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