Tuesday, October 28, 2014

First Two Weeks, Marry Me


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.3
Lead-in: The Voice (3.4 overall, 3.7 at 8:30)
Competition: Agents of SHIELD (1.7 overall, 1.7 at 9:00), NCIS: New Orleans (2.2 overall, 2.3 at 9:00), New Girl (1.2), Supernatural (1.0 overall, 1.0 at 9:00).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.8 (-22%)
Lead-in: The Voice (3.3 overall)
Competition: Agents of SHIELD (1.6 overall), NCIS: New Orleans (2.4 overall), The World Series (3.4 overall), Supernatural (0.9 overall).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Wednesday, October 29 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

45 comments:

Spot said...

Renew (not confident).


Just because NBC comedy performance is so poor it might get a saving face renewal.

Spot said...

Defer


Awful ratings (for so good lead-in), but those are still the least awful ratings among currently airing NBC sitcoms.
I doubt I'll be smarter after seeing 3rd episode, but my mind simply blocked on this question, I want to buy some more time.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident). Yeah, they don't have many comedy options, but I think these ratings are going to keep plunging as the season goes.

Spot said...

The Originals fell from a 1.1 in January to a .6 by May. I am pretty sure it would be down -20% at least at the beginning anyways. Yeah, it improves on Hart of Dixie, but that isn't exacty a high bar

Spot said...

That's true, but let's also think about David Walton. He has said in an interview, or at least that's what TVBTN commenters have told me, that this season is 22. Now, while Nellie is a trusted insider, this could very well be an assumption she has made. Not to mention, surely Walton, the lead of the series, wouldn't lie about the episodes of his shows. Now, for all I know, maybe Walton made a slip-up, but again, we must pay attention to the facts granted. Whichever is right is your call.

Spot said...

Well, NBC 2014/15 page has Heroes: Reborn on Summer, but this is relatively outdated with Mission Control there, so maybe take it with a grain of salt.

http://www.nbc.com/2014-2015-season

Spot said...

cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident) NBC doesn't hesitate to axe shows that perform below expectations.

Spot said...

Defer

I can't decide. I just can't.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Maybe. But I think that if TO was able to get back to 0.7 on Mondays it would be doing 0.8/0.9 on Tuesdays if still paired with Supernatural. The hour is easier now than it was a year ago with the voice and ncis softer, abc non existent (versus the still powerful Shield) and FOX went from some semi competence to being non existent. Those numbers wouldn't represent a significant decline in Plus for the show. We'll obviously never know for sure but all in all, I think it's still the biggest hit out of the last season's hits.

Spot said...

Mmm...cancel (not confident).

Spot said...

I think we could argue that The Blacklist was the bigger hit. Even it's three non Voice episodes (129) would be a Plus hit. But yeah, relatively it was bigger than say Resurrection

Spot said...

Defer. It only has like 50% retention at the half hour. Honestly, it and About a Boy could switch and get the same ratings.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Its only week 2 and it's already down to 50% retention out of The Voice. Even Go On was able was to stay around 60% in it's fall run.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel Confident

Spot said...

If NBC really had faith in this show, it would have launched during Premiere Week (or at least week 2) when broadcast hype is much higher and The Voice is much stronger. Even though NBC probably won't go into the 2015-2016 with zero "veteran" sitcoms, Marry Me won't be that survivor; it'll be the one that is the new post-Voice lead-out come this Spring.

Cancel (Confident)

P.S.: Thank goodness this game isn't about guessing what shows get a back 9 pickup. Cause we all would have lost with Madam Secretary, Stalker, and The Mysteries of Laura.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

I hate hedging like this, and I think it'll probably get cancelled, but I feel like NBC will want to renew something, and all of their midseason sitcoms look like classic niche NBC megabombs. But they might just axe Marry Me regardless.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

I think this one will be tough to tell until we see the rest of NBC's comedy bench. My guess is that if they have faith in their midseason shows, they'll stick one of them after The Voice in the spring...but if not, then I don't think they'll want to go into next season totally empty-handed comedy wise (and if this show goes, so does About a Boy).

But I am guessing either the Ellen show or the Fey/Carlock show goes post-Voice in the spring, and this goes with the final season of Parks & Rec with little chance of survival.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

renew confident

Spot said...

I agree with you.

Spot said...

I feel like we could say the same about all the Tuesday comedies in the last three years that have aired on NBC. Go ON/ New Normal, About a Boy/ Fisher and now Marry Me/ About a Boy. They seem to be all the same show ratings wise.

Spot said...

They all got their eventually, but Go On and About a Boy weren't there by episode 2. Especially Go On before New Girl and Happy Endings showed up

Spot said...

Go On (and About a Boy to a lower extent) also seemed way higher on NBC's promotional list by then coming off Olympics seasons, not to mention that The Vocie was much stronger by then. I think we would need "True-Plus" numbers to compare in this case and that wouldn't still account for the different promotions.

Spot said...

It's very hard to compare. Go On got a big Olympic sampling and a 2 week head start of the regular season. The New Normal had a monday preview. About a Boy had an awfully timed weak Olympic sampling, a repeat post Voice, then a premiere. Fisher had the same deal. Marry Me started 3 weeks late, not 2 weeks early. NBC had to have planned this... I still believe Marry Me is weaker than Go On and About a Boy where at this time. Renewal wise, hard to tell though. Go On got tons of time to be revealed as a fraud. About a Boy got no chance. If they give it say a Hollywood Game Night lead in in January and it gets a .8, they'll cancel. But I could see going Revolution style*
*Never airing without big lead in. Insuring that even sub 50% retention is still a good enough raw number to get renewed

Spot said...

I think I agree with you that Marry Me is definitely the weakest one they've had there yet. But Go On still feels like such a big fraud to me because I never expected such a huge meltdown in the winter that it is hard for me to say this with certainty.

There are three options really:
- give it 22 episodes and air it straight through including airings sans the voice (the Go On route)
- give it 22 episodes and air it only behind the voice (the Revolution route)
- cap it at 13

I really have a hard time imagining that they will go down the Go On or Revolution route again. The Go On route would be a media circus again and they simply don't need it with these many comedies in reserve. Besides, like you said, even Go On felt like a stronger show at this point so the results would be disastrous I imagine.
The Revolution route is possible but NBC has so much backup this year that it feels strange that they would really commit such a public fraud like that instead of simply trying new comedies in the spring that could still be renewed for saving face purposes if need be. I mean, what's the point? I don't see a reason why they would prefer to save Marry Me than another spring comedy. And even the save face renewal is strange to me because the NBC of today has a schedule more packed than when Revolution was renewed at those retention levels.
Caping it at 13 (or giving it a small extension as bridge, it is the same to me) feels like the most likely option to me.

Spot said...

Missed this in the initial phase, but fortunately week three has provided some clarity. May not have gone for two last night, but now it's a slam dunk Cancel.

Spot said...

It's an even smaller advantage on fall Mondays - the MNF game kicks off around 8:30. I presume there must have been some people who used 2BG as their pregame show...

Spot said...

Cancel


It would be stupid to defer, then not pick cancel after it dropped another 20% in week 3.
Plus, most of the field sad "cancel", so I'll be in good company if it's wrong pick.


BTW, it will be funny if next week collapsing Fox Tuesday comedy block beats NBC in 9 PM hour..

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

I defered. Week three was less than 50% retention at a 1.5. Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

I would have missed Jane the Virgin too. Especially before even the finals for week 2 were out.

Spot said...

If there was a night in which it could happen it was next week probably. NBC is airing a voice recap at 8 that will be lower rated than usual (low 2s I guess) whereas FOX will premiere Masterchef which could potentially double on Utopia's numbers.

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