Thursday, January 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/18/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The AFC Championship Game ended up at a 13.9 demo rating, down a stark 27% from the 19.0 Fox got for the NFC game in primetime last year. But a comparison of the closing portions of the games is even more drastic. Last year's game got as high as a 20.7 at 9:00. This year peaked at 15.3 in the 8:00 half-hour and dropped from there: to 14.3 at 8:30, 14.0 at 9:00 and 11.8 at 9:30.
    • Also, Mulaney (1.2) adjusted down but still had a series high, joined in progress on the East Coast at 7:06. The final rating for its lead-in, the NFC Championship post-game, was a 5.5. Adding that to the True formula takes Mulaney to its lowest True ever. So in reality, the actual lead-in for the formula should probably be something lower (like a 4.0ish). But I'm sticking with the 5.5 since it's the only thing I have.
  • CBS' AFC Championship Game ruled Sunday primetime, but a big blowout figures to put the game's rating well behind last year's NFC game on Fox, and it also hurt the special sampling for Scorpion (3.0). The preliminary 3.0 covers only the 10:30 half-hour; it does not include the first few minutes in the 10:00 half-hour (5.6) or the last 20ish minutes after primetime. More once time zone-adjusted numbers are available, but it should go way behind last year's The Following premiere (4.4).
    • UPDATE: Scorpion got 12.29 million viewers and a 3.2 demo rating in time zone-adjusted numbers, only managing to tie the series premiere in the demo. (And pending further adjustments, it had fewer total viewers than its previous original episode!) This was over 25% behind last year's NFC lead-out The Following (4.4), but we'll have to see after finals how the last 30 minutes of the game compared from year-to-year.
  • ABC's Galavant (0.9) took another massive blow in week three, losing any meaningful separation with the ABC Sunday dramas (though admittedly it faced a stronger portion of the game). Tack on Resurrection (0.7) and Revenge (0.9, slightly up week-to-week) and ABC's three original scripted hours actually lost head-to-head against Fox repeats and NBC's movie Bridesmaids (0.9).
  • Fox's Mulaney (1.5) is currently on track for a series high due to a lead-in from the late-afternoon NFC Championship. But it could adjust down heavily depending on when the post-game ended.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 0.9 24% -18%-0.2n/a 11/11 n/a -22% +0% 1.3
Galavant 0.9 33% -31%-0.4-0.2 3/3 n/a -28% +0% 1.2
Resurrection 0.8 31% +0%+0.0-0.4 11/12 n/a +7% -38% 1.1
Revenge 0.9 28% +13%+0.1+0.0 11/13 -31% +13% +29% 1.3
ABC:-11%-8%
AFC Championship 13.9 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +109% +1444% 11.9
AFC Championship Postgame 6.2 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +343% +520% 4.2
Scorpion 3.2 33% +33%+0.8+4.0 1/14 n/a +146% +220% 2.5
CBS:+117%+1005%
Dateline (R) 0.7 22% -46% -13% 1.1
Movie: Bridesmaids 1.0 38% +11% -83% +11% 1.3
NBC:-80%-8%
Mulaney 1.2 45% +140%+0.7n/a 1/10 n/a +140% -93% 0.6
The Simpsons (R) 1.0 49% +25% -95% 1.2
The Simpsons (R) 1.2 50% -40% -93% 1.5
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R) 0.9 52% -40% -95% 1.1
Family Guy (R) 1.1 56% -45% -95% 1.4
Bob's Burgers (R) 1.0 53% -38% -91% 1.2
Fox:-24%-94%
Big4:+31%-30%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

97 comments:

Spot said...

Too bad they only did it for OuaT, but I guess they pretty much had Galavant as schedule fodder and burnoff with Resurrection.

Spot said...

It's certainly more profitable than the sub 1s ABC has gotten.

Spot said...

If they will ever have 3 strong shows on Sundays, I'm pretty sure there would be split season for each. At the very least, those wouldn't air against Golden Globes or Championship Game.

Spot said...

That's the result of having the rights of the NFL's Eastern Conference feat. the New England Spurs.


Their strike of blowouts never ends, Super Bowl power outage, Thursday Night Blowouts, AFC Championship Blowouts.


Worse than that only if NBC gets their third consecutive Super Bowl with a close finish.

Spot said...

Question for the more knowledgable (looking at you, @Silvio): Why exactly did Disney move the NFL package from ABC to ESPN?

Spot said...

Because ESPN is much bigger network than ABC is.
ABC is roughly $5 billion of revenue per year on $4 billion programming costs.
ESPN revenue is roughly $10 billion per year on something like $5 billion programming costs. It's freaking cash flow machine, so ESPN is worth around $50 billion (if Disney would be crazy to sell it), while ABC network is worth "only" 3.2 billions, 15x less.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2014/04/29/the-value-of-espn-surpasses-50-billion/

Now, $8 billion out of those $10 billion comes from transmission fees (it already raised to more than $6 / month on average, says SNL Kagan research). And they squeeze those $6 from MVPDs mainly because they have football. If they would lose NFL, it would be cut in half or so.

So, if games would move to ABC, then
ESPN = $6 bill. revenue - $3 bill. cost = $3 billion, so operating income is $2 bill. lower. Wow.
ABC = $7 bill. revenue, but now $6 bill cost = operating income would remain same. That is because broadcasters have only ads income, so they actually don't earn much on sports, if anything. Except, it's great promotional platform for their other shows - but ESPN promotes ABC shows, so it's not that ABC is only big 4 network without it.

If Bob Iger would move games to ABC, Disney would lose multiple billions (and he would lose his job), and all they would have to show for it is bragging ABC won "A18-49 race". And that race is stupid PR crap, only important race is in "ratings excluding sports and specials."

Spot said...

I guess, I figured as much Galavant was schedule fodder with the way it was set up and going into competition early on, as for Resurrection, that was already obvious with the sharp drops. As for Revenge, well it really would be best to end since it's already sunk below 1.0s for the past 3 weeks as if the low 1s weren't already pretty bad to begin with.

Spot said...

Thank you. I suspected that was the reason. I also suspect ABC losing money on MNF also contributed to it.

Now, could you explain this?: "And that race is stupid PR crap, only important race is in "ratings excluding sports and specials."

Spot said...

Because this site says so (and because it's true):
http://www.spottedratings.com/2013/09/intro-to-nielsen-ratings-history-death.html

This part is about it:
"Yeah, but sports count too!" you might say. The problem with putting sports ratings and entertainment ratings on a level playing field is that the networks have to pay a ton of money in rights fees for their high-rated sports programming. So while these programs do create massive ad revenue, they also have massive negative costs. There are articles almost every Olympics about how NBC is losing money or, in 2012's case, very happy to be breaking even. The top-rated National Football League is the same way. They're willing to take these kinds of hits for the good PR that comes with "winning" ratings, because it eases the burden of filling a schedule, and because they hope those huge audiences will funnel into their entertainment programs. But ultimately, an entertainment program pulling a huge demo score is going to be a much bigger profit center for its network than a sports program at the same rating. While there is certainly variance in cost within the entertainment realm too, excluding sports is at least a step in the right direction when it comes to estimating a network's "successfulness."

Spot said...

Thank you so much!

Spot said...

I also exclude Awards shows from my averages. While I am not sure how much of an airing fee or production cost or whatever may be that networks pay to broadcast them, it doesn't seem right to me to benefit a network that happens to have the Emmys that year for example or ABC for getting the Oscars every year for the matter.

Spot said...

Isn't that classified as a special?

Spot said...

I don't do any averages. That paragraph above is copy/paste of Spot's explanation why sports ratings doesn't matter.
I agree 100% with his opinion on the matter at hand, though.

Spot said...

Poor CBS. They had the right idea with Scorpion but got a blow-out game. Maybe one episode of a sitcom would be a better way to go to account for the variance of when the game ends.


I second the suggestion that ABC should launch The Bachelor on the first Sunday in January, then go dormant until after the Oscars. Either air movies or reruns of new shows instead of lighting millions of dollars on fire.

Spot said...

Per deadline, take it at face value:

Despite CBS’ comedy woes, with The McCarthys struggling and The Millers
cancelled, the network’s comedy pilot haul will likely be down from
last season, an indication that the network is probably eyeing a
drama-skewing lineup.


I think this gives further strength to my idea that if the odd couple fails CBS will just do a 2 hour comedy block on Thursday and go tri drama on Mondays.

Spot said...

Not sure how Spot counts them to be honest. But I disagree with Spot on a few things in terms of what should and shouldn't count to averages. For instance, I include repeats, because 1) networks that have better repeating shows should be awarded and 2) networks that go to the trouble of finding replacements for repeats or timeshare shows should also be awarded compared to those that simply let low rated repeats play out. For instance, it makes all the sense to me that ABC should get bonuses for going all original Tuesdays at 9 with the Marvel shows while FOX should be penalized from airing >10 weeks of 0.5 Gotham repeats on Monday.

Spot said...

I know, I was just commenting that, on top of what you said (with which I also agree 100%) I also believe excluding award shows makes sense.

Spot said...

Even the Comedy King goes down.

Spot said...

Article says they will order 8-9 pilots. It means opposite, they're gonna pick 3-4 comedies, and 100% certainty they're going with 3 comedy blocks.

Fall: TBBT, 2BG, MOM, The Odd Couple + 2 rookies
Bench: Mike & Molly, 3rd rookie, TBBT (r)

Spot said...

I said if the odd couple failed. Last year they only managed to get 2/10 comedy pilots and one they didn't trust (mccarthys) and the other was sent for midseason retool (odd couple). So if the odd couple doesn't work, I don't think it's a stretch to imagine them not being able to produce 3/9 comedies for the fall.

If the odd couple works, then there is no argument, it will be 3 hour comedy.

Spot said...

I can't see CBS going down to only two hours of comedy even if The Odd Couple bombs out. They know the clock is running on The Big Bang Theory if the cast doesn't want to re-up, and I doubt CBS will want to dislodge 2 Broke Girls as an anchor to put a freshman drama or Scorpion at 8:00. Comedy is good counterprogramming there against Gotham.

Spot said...

It was 2/10 because shocking, last minute, passing on How I Met You Dad (producers were too greedy, so Moonves showed them who's the boss).
They planned 4 comedy blocks, so if HIMYD was picked, it would be 4/10 (one more backup because of more more block).

Only 20% picked? That's anecdotal,

Spot said...

I just found site for omabin and other numbers fanatics:
http://www.ratingsintel.com/empire-will-reign-wednesday-competition/

Empire premiere - additional ratings breakdowns:
Female 63.8% / Male 36.2%

A25-54 4.25 (Episode 2 was 4.4)
A18-34 2.93 (Episode 2 was 3.4, nice uptick)
A35-49 4.76 (because A18-49 was 3.78)

Median age: 45.6 years.


BTW, other site (medialifemagazine) has this in its "This week’s broadcast ratings"
(premiere episode too):
Hispanic Audience 1.039 mill. = 10% of total 9.897 mill. viewers.
African American Audience 5.622 mill. = 57% viewers.

Looking at those breakdowns, ratings for African American Female 35-49 audience surely went through the roof.

Spot said...

This is an excellent resource.

Thank you so much for posting!

Spot said...

Very, very interesting.


I'd love to see such a breakdown for Scandal's and HTGAWM's premieres as well.

Spot said...

Thanks! Very interesting! It's a pity they don't provide the same information for all shows, but this already helps with Empire at least!



I am surprised it didn't skew more female. It's a soap, I thought the male audience would have been minimal but apparently not.

Spot said...

http://31.media.tumblr.com/fcb5d91c89c8783325c9a16660b6649a/tumblr_mt17zsYLoT1sisy7qo1_500.gif

Spot said...

I want a subscription.


$75 :(

Spot said...

Yes, I noticed it later too, most of their reports are for subscribers only.

Perhaps they're targeting small to medium ad agencies, and small advertisers? $75 is surely too much for individual to pay for few reports. And I assume networks, big agencies and big advertisers employ IT guys making them similar reports from Nielsen data they're already subscribed to.

Spot said...

Do you know if they actually have regular complete databases (with demo breakdowns, maybe even C3, other numbers) or just reports and analysis? I couldn't understand it from surfing there. In any case, I agree, $75 is too much for individuals and I don't see big agencies needing it either.

Spot said...

I have no idea. First time I heard about that site was yesterday, an hour before I posted that link here. I stumbled into it while googleing for source confirming medialifemagazine data about enormous % of Empire's African American audience.

Spot said...

I'm not sure if you were able to find a source confirming medialifemagazine's information, but I initially found the African American audience info on Variety (of which got it from Nielsen).

http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/weekly-ratings-fox-scores-rare-demo-victory-numerous-cbs-series-hit-season-highs-1201403318/

"It [Empire] was the rare network show that drew most of its audience from minorities, with African-Americans comprising roughly 57% of its overall audience and Hispanics making up 10.5%, according to Nielsen."

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

@Spot,

Agent Carter and Galavant links are directing towards the vault and not the actual preview!

Spot said...

The site @Silvio posted has also some interesting tidbits:


Apparently, NCIS reigns supreme on ratings for folks above 55. A whooping 15.07, more than three full points ahead of the nearest competitor, sibling NCIS:LA.

Spot said...

Mike and Molly is a solid performer! I hope CBS gives it better treatment next season, it survived airing in the middle of repeats 3x already this season including two weeks during the holidays

Bachelor recovered from last week but Castle is no longer benefiting from it greaty anymore. DWTS still has some juice on it so I hope ABC will launch a new show next season on the slot and move Castle on Tue or Sundays

Spot said...

Yeah, it's definitely time to move (Sun/Tues seems preferable), possibly a final season.

Spot said...

So Sleepy Hollow's in Bones territory. Y'know I'm confused on why limited shows bomb on Season 2. Do people just have awful attention spans, they forget shows they like?

Spot said...

I think it's the quality of it, there's clearly a strong enough backlash for Fox to put it on hold and retool the show.

Spot said...

While I'm used to seeing Castle drop airing after The Bachelor, I'm a little mystified by NCIS: LA dropping that much from Scorpion. I figured we'd see some sustained growth with The Blacklist leaving. Instead it dropped half a point between two weeks and today.


ABC should be resigned to the fact that this season of The Bachelor seems to be suffering from poor casting and/or another round of franchise fatigue. Not swapping it and Dancing with the Stars certainly looks like it was the right move now.


Looks like Jane the Virgin benefited from the Golden Globes win in the subdemos, and/or helped that The Voice was gone for the first time.

Spot said...

so Jane didn't benefit much from Rodriguez' win (but it seems to me it wasn't a great night for networks overall)

Spot said...

And neither did the other shows that got renewed, those don't usually get bumps either way but it doesn't matter since they're already renewed.

Spot said...

Idk, there's a lot of drops except for some shows that were either steady or got a small uptick.

Spot said...

but Jane won a quite a high profile award (lead comedy actress), not just a renewal.
Anyway no of course, it doesn't matter, I was just remarking it.

(by the way, do awards usually translate in an increased attention and ratings? or not?)

Spot said...

Jane the Virgin preliminary W18-34 is series high 0.9, building on The Originals lead-in of 0.7 W18-34. If CW can monetize that demo (and I think they can, but ongoing problem being the fact Tribune stations can not), that's great for Jane.

Anyway, for Jane, that's 2 ticks above previous series high (fall finale was 0.8 in preliminaries, but adjusted to season-high tying 0.7 in finals), and that 0.9 is 42% above it's fall average (0.62 W18-34).
Now, this is just one data point, and there was some 0.5s and 0.6s in Oct/Nov, and probably there will be some more disappointing ratings during low PUT spring again, as it's usual for young skewing CW shows.
But this week Jane probably will be 2nd best rated Mon/Thu CW show (CW girl nights) in W18-34 - so if that trend continues, then next fall they should move Jane to Monday 8 PM. Unless they have some female audience friendly potential hit in development, which I don't think they have.

Spot said...

I would argue that The Apprentice could be a factor in the bachelor's softness too. I know two years ago it managed to grow a lot despite TBL's also strong season, but maybe there is more overlap with the apprentice. In any case, it is still a very valuable player for ABC.

Spot said...

Pretty much, it's soft but still viable enough.

Spot said...

It depends, but usually these things are mostly just for show/recognition/bragging rights and all that.

Spot said...

What do you do with the originals in that scenario? Thursdays at 9? The CW is not that hard to come up with a mock schedule for but it's too dependent on the type of shows they have in development. It's just a puzzle. Once you know the pieces, it's not hard to fit them in. But without knowing it's hard to guess I think (still nowhere near as hard to do as say, NBC schedule, that one I can't make)

Spot said...

In NBC's case, their problem is not having any new hit shows so far unlike the other networks, so the new Chicago spin off in development was no surprise there.

As for the CW, I don't expect that big of a change in schedule, they've renewed almost every show on their network after all so you never know with them.

Spot said...

I guess if they wanted to go that route and go after that demo.

Spot said...

Talking about the Sleepy Hollow's case, @Silvio considers it a toss-up, a 1.3 is worrisome, even on FOX, its sophomore slump is as big as The Following's. Discussing that on STV, I asked it could be moving to a sacrificial timeslot like thursdays at 9 or fridays, which seems likely. FOX wants a retool and they'll probably fire the showrunner, is its renewal probably coming closer to 50% every day? B99 got renewed, Sleepy Hollow didn't.

Spot said...

Originals at Thursday 9 PM would be 3rd different day for the show in its first 3 seasons... but, yeah, if they don't want to launch the new show on Thursday, that's most likely outcome. I have no idea where they plan to launch their 2nd fall rookie, but I think it will be Monday or Thursday, because Pedowitz again have bought a lot of female oriented scripts.

They also have this option:
Mon: Jane / Originals
Thu: new drama / The Vampire Diaries

That way new drama avoids Scandal / Blacklist, and The Voice too, while it's not that TVD ever helped launching anything.
Jane / Originals flip: Originals was hit by move to Monday. That was expected, but it dropped unexpected much. So probably next fall local programming will be better lead in for Jan, than Originals will (and that's maybe the case already). And, honestly, Jane seems like the only CW show that could go up next season. I wouldn't be surprised if Arrow or The 100 would be flat y2y (so up in A18-49+), but I think only Jane might go up, thanks to buzz. I'm not saying that it will, or that chances it goes up y2y are over 50% - I'm just saying Jane is their only show with not-negligible chances for going up in raw numbers.

Spot said...

Thanks for the info about possible showrunner change.
But doesn't it go the other way too? I mean, if they DO bring in new showrunner, then we may consider it renewed, right? Surely they wouldn't go to the trouble if they plan to cancel it.

And Bones is different case, but similar logic of concluding. They said they're in talks about re-upping contracts with Deschanel and Boreanaz.. They wouldn't do it if they plan to cancel the show, right?

Spot said...

They surely cut the shows to please W18-34 crowd. In Dawn's era they did so with *all* new shows, nowadays they do it only with *some* of new shows.
That I am sure. What I'm not sure is, if CW can find enough advertisers willing to pay ads according to concentration of that demo in their shows.

Spot said...

It's possible either way.

Spot said...

That's interesting with the TVD flip, but I wonder if a new show could handle being up against TBBT in that slot.

Spot said...

It's problematic and it's probably going to move so Gotham can lead into a new show.

Spot said...

For Bones it's contractual.
For Sleepy Hollow, it's on hold atm, but they are putting effort into it.

Spot said...

There is no good timeslot for female skewing rookie show (if they will have such in fall at all, and I believe they will):
Mon: vs The Voice
Thu 8 PM: vs TBBT / Grey's
Thu 9 Pm: vs Scandal / Blacklist
Tue 9 Pm / Wed 9 PM: Male crowd of Flash / Arrow would reject it (which is exactly what I expect to happen with iZombie).

I see Thursday 8 PM as the least bad option, but I might be wrong.

Spot said...

I know, I can see why since the post TVD hasn't helped any new shows, I was just pointing out what could potentially hurt the new show in your proposed schedule.

Spot said...

I think Mondays is a tad better than Thursdays actually, especially because the CW misses out the early weeks of the fall in which the voice has the very high rated blind auditions. It's still not good, but it's a bit better I think. Scandal has averaged over a 4.0 in W18-34 demo this fall, that's insane! At 8pm, GA is around a 3.0 (close to the voice), but TBBT is big too (another 3.0), while DWTS on Monday is only ~2. So overall Mondays at 8: 3+2=5 W18-34 competition and Thursdays at 8: 3+3=6 W18-34. I also think that drama is inherently stronger competition to another drama than reality. On top of it all, Mondays have the higher rated PUT levels which also help.

Honestly, for the CW, I would like them to do this on their female skewing nights:
Monday: New Female Skewing Drama | Supernatural (I am trying to recreate The Originals | Supernatural dynamic from last year. If the female drama is too soapy like Jane this wouldn't work. But if it is a Reign, an Originals, a Star Crossed or an Izombie I think it would)
Thursday: TVD | TO (they need to prepare for when TVD inevitably ends anyway and helping out TO is probably the best way to do that and is also probably the only show that would benefit from decaying TVD).

On Wednesday and Tuesday, they can either launch two new male dramas if they have them or if not, just use the 100 again.

As for Jane I would like them to put it on Friday. I feel like it could be sort of a game changer for CW Fridays and establish a permanent presence in there for them. I know it seems demoting but I think it would actually do the best in there and help out the network. It would also fit with the other programs the network are likely to put on the night (Whose Line, Top Model, Reign, etc.)

Spot said...

I agree with you that it goes both ways the show-runner thing. I think FOX should renew Sleepy Hollow but if the show is to have any future, they should renew it for a full season. This probably means it ends up on Fridays for the second half of its third season run but I would be okay with them trying that. Grimm has managed to do well there and it is probably the most comparable show on broadcast. If it does awful there, just cancel it after season 3 and forget syndication.

Spot said...

Sounds great, Supernatural should definitely move on Mondays so it can finish the whole set of days it's been moved.

Spot said...

Sounds similar to what happened with Fringe.

Spot said...

Well, every your schedule is build around The 100 being at Wed 9 PM, and then you put other pieces into more or less awkward timeslots because of that unnecessary constraint you're imposing to yourself.

Every my schedule is built around Supernatural being at Wed 9 PM, and The 100 on the bench (premiering in midseason on Friday 9 PM, if not needed elsewhere). That way, if Tue 9 PM rookie would bomb, CW at least would have strong Wednesday night. As opposed to rookie drama and The 100 both wasting network's strongest lead-ins with 0.4s or so during fall.

So we will never agree, unless Pedowitz at some moment explicitly says if The 100 is renewed for fall or midseason.

Spot said...

NCIS: LA went from season high to low in a week. Crazy. Very disappointing result. At a 2.0, it looked like it would be renewed regardless of syndication. Now it looks to be renewed because of the first four letters of its name.
.
That's bad for Sleepy Hollow. Gotham's Plus is 129, a hit, but Sleepy Hollow is a borderline Flop (76)!

Spot said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see The 100 come in primarily for Summer 2016 instead of midseason Fridays. The mix of 0.5's and 0.6's that it got at the tail end of Summer 2014 are more meaningful than those same numbers following Arrow this season. And between it, Reign, and Jane the Virgin, it's the show that'll hold up best in the Summer.

Spot said...

It's a shame with what happened with SH.

Spot said...

People need to calm down about Jane's ratings. It's matching The World Dog Awards. That's it

Spot said...

Yeah, that and it already got renewed so it really doesn't matter at this point.

Spot said...

It's possible especially with its' limited format.

Spot said...

You misunderstood me greatly. I built my entire schedule around the female skewing nights and the fact that I believe they are better off using Supernatural to anchoring one and putting the two vampire shows together on Thursdays. That was everything I built my schedule around.

I even said that on Tuesday and Wednesday they could either launch two new male shows if they have them or, if not, then yes, plug in the 100 again. So those were the last considerations I had. It just feels to me that it is easier for the CW right now to handle the male nights than it is the female ones (competitions, lead-ins), so they should put Supernatural there and let the male ones figure themselves out.

Spot said...

Fringe had full seasons under its belt though. I think that will be the difference.

Spot said...

Normally, I would agree.
But January season premiere would already mean 10 months hiatus (and that's only problem I have with moving it to midseason), and you're suggesting 13-14 months hiatus.
You gave me crazy idea: maybe 6 to 8 episodes in winter when other shows are on hiatus, and remaining 6-8 in summer?
Reign could go that route too. Frankly, by ratings, it deserves dumping to summer the most. But we don't know if they want 22 episodes Reign season because of Netflix. If they want, then Reign must premiere in fall, probably Friday 9 PM where it hurts the least.

Spot said...

That's understandable.

Spot said...

I was just comparing that to your example, in terms of moving to Fridays, not the number of episodes.

Spot said...

No, it wouldn't be better for Supernatural. By move to tougher nigh Monday it wnight

Spot said...

CBS needs to start cross-overs between the NCIS trios and promo-ing the hell out of them, like NBC does with the Dick Wolf trio. I'm truly baffled that they haven't done one yet. It'd work out nicely because it would occur on consecutive nights, or CBS could even preempt POI for a special NCIS: LA. Either way, it just surprises me because it seems like a very "Moonves" decision

Spot said...

It is crazy because they have already had LA crossover with Hawaii 5-0 twice and have had a main cast member appear on Scorpion. They did a "CSI Trilogy" before too. It wouldn't be too hard, they can have the story start on LA, continue on NCIS the next night, and conclude on New Orleans.

Spot said...

So, Mom goes at 9?

Spot said...

No, just that McCarthys is gone, and for 4 weeks it'll be Big Bang repeats, since they have a neverending supply.

Spot said...

It does seem like it.


The Big Bang Theory: CBS' glue.

Spot said...

One of these days I would like to understand the timings for these decisions. It was puzzling when the mccarthys didn't get pulled in December and came back in January and even more when it got that random 1 extra episode ordered for it (why?). And now, less than a month before its expected ending they pull it.

Don't misunderstand me: no surprise at all that it was pulled, just why was it that they've decided that today was the best day to do it. Seems arbitrary to me.

Spot said...

It's kind of crazy that H50 on Fridays tied LA. And that it was almost beaten by Blue Bloods as well.

Spot said...

The Originals didn't loose nearly as much as you are suggesting. Last season, when it returned after the Olympics, it was always on the 0.6-0.8 area. This year, apart from one random 0.5, it has been 0.6-0.7 pretty consistently. It was not to be expected that the show would suddenly return to its fall ratings, even on Tuesday. Sure, the move to Monday accelerated that, but this is the normal thing. Freshman dramas don't recover from spring declines all that well in the next fall (neither veterans for the matter in most cases... in fact, the only CW drama that has significantly improved on its spring numbers is Arrow and who knows how much of that is from the flash).

Besides, Supernatural is a 10 year old show, not a one year show. I highly doubt it would loose as much as you are suggesting in the move. Maybe 0.1 or 0.2, that's it. And I think it would help the female drama before it the same way it helped The Originals last year (again, as long as it had some genre elements and wasn't pure soapy like the Virgin or Dixie).

Spot said...

The thing with the 100 is that it will soon get into a very strange financial situation. It's exactly the same as Sleepy Hollow on FOX. The shows aren't gangbusters in the ratings so they will probably need to rely more on backend sources of revenue. But for those sources of revenue, number of episodes is very important and the show may become nonviable unless they start producing regular sized seasons. Maybe this is more true in SH's case than The 100's (because CW relies more on Netflix and those deals and less on traditional syndication, as you've pointed out to me before), but still.

Spot said...

Last season after 10 episodes The Originals was at 1.24 W18-34, unexpected hit. This year after 10th episode it's at only 0.71, Jane is less than 1 tenth behind it now. So Originals actually dropped more than 5 tenths (whopping 43%) - but I count 2 tenths as usual somphore slump, and remaining 3 tenths to be cause by moving into much harder timeslot.

I don't care about A18-49 ratings for CW shows targeting different audience. It's simple - why would they go extra mile (cut show for young females) if they don't benefit from it? Surely they wouldn't use resources, and actually lose some in A18-49 if that doesn't pay off to them.
But since you're comparing apples (Fall 2014-15 ratings) and oranges (Spring 2013-14 ratings) to spin numbers, here are real numbers:
Last season after 10 episodes A18-49 was 1.00, and this season is 0.73.

Spot said...

My theory was they pull losers off schedule when ratings fall dangerously close to 50% of upfront rating guarantees. Like, if they promised The McCarthys ratings of 2.4 at upfronts, they would pull it at 1.2 surely, but likely already at 1.3-1.4 in anticipation of it soon to be 1.2. Because when shows misses to reach upfront guarantees, network must do make-goods by giving advertiser ad space in other network's show. And at point when ratings are at some threshold, let's say around 60% of guarantees, amount of make-goods to become too much of a problem for network.

But when I tested theory, it doesn't apply always. Sometimes it's clear. For example, no network will premiere backup during holiday season (late November / December), they rather let loser airs, than replacement being often off the air (due to holidays) so early in the run. Other clear case is when they already announced timeslot's new occupant for the midseason - network surely won't bother with putting new show in timeslot for just few weeks, in timeslot air either losers (NBC Thu 9 PM), either repeats/specials (ABC Tue 8 PM).

But even excluding those cases, theory doesn't work always. So now I'm thinking it's also connected with scatter market, that it depends on how big is demand for ads. In this case, maybe there wasn't much demand for CBS ads in Dec/Jan, so they aired McCarthys. But now demand increased, so CBS yanks The McCarthys. Reason: it frees some of their ads inventory that otherwise would be used as make-goods for The McCarthys weak ratings.
But that's just theory, I might be completely wrong.

Spot said...

It was apples and oranges because that's the usual trend shows have. I know we make the y2y comparisons that way but in terms of expectations, it's unrealistic to expect serialized shows to get back to the previous fall ratings. The usual trend (especially sohpmore shows that had early episodes in the opening months of their runs higher than usual) is for shows to come back to the level in which they left the previous spring, not the previous fall. Procedurals and comedies don't follow this pattern and obviously there are exceptions within the serialized shows universe as well, but as a whole, I think it's this way.

I don't disagree with you looking at W18-34 for The Originals.

Spot said...

Except Supernatural is 1 of the few shows that can move just about anywhere, it makes the most sense to move it to 1 of the weaker time slots so they can use either of the post Flash/Arrow time slots instead of just dumping a new show in like that.

Spot said...

Nice theories there. Probably the best ones I've heard about this topic, so kuddos to you.

I think some of the decisions are still puzzling though. For instance, why do you think CBS ordered the extra episode? Surely they didn't do it for PR purposes.. They must know that ordering 1 extra episode is seen almost as bad as cancelling a show. They also didn't do it for schedule purposes since they had no room for it (I don't believe they just decided to order it before seeing if they were going to need it as well). It's strange, isn't it?

There are also other situations in which I am at a loss. I feel that in most cases, networks would pull the shows if repeats were to do better. Obviously this doesn't apply to CBS since TBBT repeats are the second highest rated comedy they have (behind TBBT originals themselves) so everything would be pulled, but why didn't NBC pull the Thursday comedies of Blacklist reruns or 2 hour TBL? It's strange. And like you said, although I really like your theory, I am sure A to Z has long ago crossed that threshold from the upfronts that you refer. Demand could be a reason but that would probably mean that NBC Thursday had gotten so toxic that advertisers really weren't bothering placing ads there anymore (in a pre blacklist era anyway) regardless of it was with comedy losers, repeats or reality shows.

Spot said...

Exactly, Supernatural has its own audience, it survived Fridays and was thankfully moved off of it. Clearly it's stronger than The Originals which is only a 2nd season show.
Either way both shows got renewed and that's all that matters.

Spot said...

You forget that there was more hype for it being a TVD spin off and it was a fresh new show at the time.

Spot said...

Pretty much, The Originals was always going to fall no matter what in terms of seasonal decline no matter where it was.

Spot said...

Probably desperation on their part. All their new comedies were bombing hard and AAB fell pretty hard too.

Spot said...

Wrong. Supernatural isn't so magical as you think. Otherwise it wouldn't be down 11% y2y, despite having the strongest lead-in in The CW history, The Flash.

Additionally, you're looking at it too simplistic. Move to Monday or Thursday wouldn't be some lateral move. Instead of male oriented show (Arrow), SPN would be paired with girly show. It's lead-in would be weaker after move, and it would be on night with more competitiom. Only positive thing would be it wouldn't air in SHIELD timeslot anymore.

So there you have it, that's rational explanation why it would lose around 3 tenths, which is quite opposite of your "Supernatural is unicorn" theory.

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