Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 1/26/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Bachelor (2.3) adjusted up to a new season high, while Sleepy Hollow (1.5) was also up. That put both shows up two tenths from last week.
  • On the final Monday before February sweeps, CBS sat out its regular lineup. But it still had pretty normal numbers in the 8/7c hour thanks to the Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special (2.1). This was the best number for the special since 2010 (it's hit either 1.9 or 2.0 each of the last four years).
  • All of the night's originals changed by exactly one tenth from last week:
    • Fox preliminarily saw Gotham (2.1) inch down to a new low and Sleepy Hollow (1.4) inch up from last week's low. 
    • NBC's Celebrity Apprentice (1.8) and State of Affairs (1.0) were each down a tenth, with State unable to benefit from both competing dramas going into repeats.
    • ABC had minor growth from The Bachelor (2.2), back to a tie with its season premiere.
    • And the CW upticked with The Originals (0.7) and Jane the Virgin (0.6), both of which would tie season highs if they hold in finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelor 2.3 37% +10%+0.2n/a 1/4 -8% +7% -9% 2.1
Castle (R) 0.8 21% -45% -38% 1.0
ABC:-5%-15%
Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials 2.1 25% +11% -2% -38% 2.0
Scorpion (R) 1.4 21% -38% -44% 1.3
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) 1.1 20% -29% -27% 1.2
CBS:-23%-38%
Celebrity Apprentice 1.8 36% -5%-0.1n/a 4/5 n/a -3% +29% 1.7
State of Affairs 1.0 29% -9%-0.1-0.1 7/10 n/a -9% -61% 1.1
NBC:-6%-14%
Gotham 2.1 44% -5%-0.1n/a 13/13 n/a -5% +91% 2.0
Sleepy Hollow 1.5 44% +15%+0.2-0.1 9/14 n/a +15% -25% 1.3
Fox:+3%+16%
The Originals 0.7 51% +17%+0.1n/a 1/11 -30% +8% +75% 0.7
Jane the Virgin 0.6 49% +20%+0.1+0.1 1/11 n/a +20% +100% 0.6
CW:+18%+86%
Big5:-6%-11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

43 comments:

Spot said...

Those are very good numbers for the CW.

Spot said...

By the way, Scorpion should be about to get one of those crazy syndication deals for CBS. 1.4 for a repeat is very very solid. Which other show that is not NCIS can do that? I know it had help from a big lead-in but still. If CBS could get that crazy deal for Elementary it will surely get an ever bigger one for Scorpion

Spot said...

ABC has been underperforming in premiere shows while NBC has been overperforming, at least to my expectations. And ouch for Gotham. Weird that people came for the winter premiere and then scurried away. But at least Fox can mask some of their problems away now that Wednesday's a thing.

Spot said...

After seeing how much Elementary has fallen between its debut and now, and based on how Hawaii Five-O has disappointed for TNT, I wouldn't be surprised if cable networks held back on those kinds of crazy deals or at least waited until a second or third season. Past shows that CBS has sold into syndication have been built on pre-existing brands: spin-offs of NCIS & CSI, the Five-O reboot, and a modern take on Sherlock Holmes.


Shows that haven't been linked to a brand have taken longer. Blue Bloods just entered syndication this season, Criminal Minds didn't enter it until around 2010, and it wasn't until last year that The Good Wife finally sold in that complex cable/Internet/weekend syndication deal.

Spot said...

Hm you may have a point. Elementary did enter pretty early on though but you are right that it may result in cable networks backing off. Comedies don't appear to suffer from this though. 2 Broke Girls was sold pretty early on and didn't they sell Mom last year? I know "them" is not CBS in the comedies' case but still. The counter examples you've given, with the exception of Criminal Minds, are much more modest ratings performer. The good wife is a critical darling but has never had particularly good ratings and is the less procedural CBS show while Blue Bloods is a Friday show so ratings are also limited. Scorpion appears to be a different beast. But we shall see.

Spot said...

WGN America overpaid Elementary and Person of Interest because they planned to transform from superstation to cable channel (in the meantime thes did). They desperately needed something that will boost their viewership, so they can ask for higher transmission fees (cable channel doesn't carry Chicago sports, nor news).
Studios are lucky bastards, there's always some channel desperate for syndicated stuff help their numbers. At least, they were so far.

Spot said...

Gotham's ratings are trending like nearly every big four network fantasy show in recent years. It's remarkable how closely its first season is mirroring that of Agents of SHIELD. SHIELD's second episode from its premiere season was 3.3 (after the totally unsustainably huge 4.7 first episode). Gotham's debut episode was 3.3. SHIELD's last episode before its winter break on 2/4/13 was 2.2. I wanted to like Gotham and I've tried watching it when it debuted but quickly lost interest. If ever a show needed a superhero or at least a dynamic protagonist to root for, it's Gotham. A gloomy, dark and depressing city can't be the star of a weekly series. For me, Gotham is as compelling as watching a funeral service each week. Even though the ratings haven't reflected it, at least Marvel made some sound adjustments to SHIELD when it came back from its winter hiatus last year and have continued to make marked improvements this season. I honestly don't know what could be done to Gotham to re-invent it beyond flash forward episodes with an adult Batman.

Spot said...

Well now that you mention it, it is performing similarly like a smaller version of Shield.

Spot said...

Unusually high number of total viewers for CW. Probably preempted in some markets for nonblizzard coverage. Those numbers will be adjusted down in finals, and maybe also a tick down in A18-49, but A18-34 could stay at OK-ish 0.6 for both shows. In W18-34 preliminary ratings Jane the Virgin (0.9) again outrated The Originals (0.7).

That's enough for me - I'm now mock-scheduling Jane for Monday 8 PM. 9 PM depends on which will be rookie female skewing drama:
1. If somethings soapy (like telenovela adaption First Lady), then that one gets Monday 9 PM with The Originals at Thursday 9 PM.
2. But if it would be genre drama, then it goes to Thursday 9 PM (8 PM if it has hit potential) with Originals at Monday, but at 9 PM next season.

Spot said...

For the comedy examples that you gave: 2 Broke Girls benefited being part of the sitcom boom of 2011-2012 and some helpful scheduling by being HIMYM's lead-out in seasons one and three helped make it to at least 96 episodes by this season's end. And Mom may not be a spin-off or reboot but it comes from talent (Chuck Lorre) that's so successful it's essentially a "brand" sitcom.

Spot said...

Looks like SHIED to me either, including some spikes.


It seemed like the last tryout for most people was the winter premiere. The show itself might be a bit appealing for the casual with its procedural elements but it's kind of unappealing


The CW is a network whose audience is small enough for comic book shows to flourish and be top performers, but the big 4 haven't been kind with them, those shows don't attract casuals, hence their low total viewership numbers.

Spot said...

I think that is premature. Gotham is still a big success for FOX. Empire not of this world so Empire excluded, Gotham has been pretty much the only thing going for them. And it would be a hit on any network.

I think the issue is not so much being on the CW or being on a big 4 as is about these two specific shows and the expectations they create. Arrow and The Flash were promoted and launched as superhero shows based on those respective characters and that is exactly what they are, plain and simple. Nobody could argue they went there expecting one thing and got another one. But Shield and Gotham aren't super hero shows, not really. They use the world in which the comics are based but then they really aren't focused on what the comics are focused on (the super heroes), hence a disconnect with what people wanted to see and what they actually see (this can be see not only from Shield's massive post premiere rejection but also from both shows gradual declines). I believe it is a marketing problem. On the one hand, people who have never had any contact with the comics won't be too tempted to watch since they promote that connection so damn much. On the other hand, the people that are comic fans check it out but find something different from what they were expecting. The result is therefore a limited audience (although I would argue that said limited audience is still perfectly fine to make for solid shows, especially when you look at the male subdemos that I am sure FOX and ABC monetarize somehow).

To me,that is the biggest difference. If they have a pure super hero show on the big 4s, I think chances of it succeeding, if well done, will be higher (I will give you Constantine, but that doesn't feel on the same level as the others, starting with a Friday timeslot). Super Girl is coming and it may be that show but I also doubt it since it is CBS and they will probably turn it into some procedural staring a super hero, but well, my point stands.

Spot said...

If they had a show called The Dark Knight starring Christian Bale, I have no doubt they'd have a double the ratings if not more. The problem is that movie franchise potential really trumps TV here. It is kinda crazy the Gotham Empire comparison though. If before the season had begun, someone told me that Empire would be pulling over double the ratings of Gotham, I'd think they were crazy. But Empire really isn't of this world. It's most recent episode was literally ELEVEN times bigger in the demo than Mulaney. That's actually 1000% bigger audience. Crazy

Spot said...

Even if the episode facing the big college championship had been lower, I think Gotham would be higher if it had not taken a break the week immediately following the Winter Premiere. That was the first episode in 6 weeks, so right away taking off was a pretty bad move.

Spot said...

So CBS is doing a Victoria Secret Swim Suit Special on February 26th. It will no doubt do better than Elementary, but I don't think they should try to make it a thing. They will get lesser returns if they over do this thing. I'm not too surprised at scheduling though. They were advertising Elementary returning in 2015 for 7 new episodes in a row and I was wondering what they were preempting it for

Spot said...

To be fair, Mulaney also isn't from this world on a completely opposite sense ahah. But I do agree with your broader point that Empire is not of this world so comparisons with it really aren't very meaningful (kind of like comparing comedies with Mulaney also isn't very meaningful).

But back to your point, I don't think they would necessarily need a show staring Christian Bale. A well done version of a Batman tv show like Arrow and The Flash are would probably work well on a big 4 (except CBS probably). Maybe not Batman since the dark knight movies are quite recent but some other. My point is that other than Fridays-Constantine the Big 4 really haven't tried proper super hero shows based on comics.

Also, let's not forget the biggest ratings anomaly of the last decade ir from a comics too... TWD

Spot said...

Sleepy Hollow and The Bachelor were each adjusted up a tenth.

Spot said...

Isn't that they day HTGAWM's season finale airs?

Spot said...

So the CW held in finals. Very impressive.

Spot said...

Now I'm confused. The Originals season premiere had 0.71 A18-49 with 1.37 million viewers, skewed 66% young, great. And today same 0.7, but 370K more viewers (1.74 mill.), that's barely over 50% young skewing. What, older viewers of DWTS and The Voice rather watching CW than Bachelor / Apprentice? In theory it could be also teens, but I don't believe it, because The Fosters returned from hiatus last week.

Spot said...

I think it's audience from the voice.

Spot said...

Exactly. With this low 2s, Gotham is bringing some $1 million of profit per episode to Fox. Wow, not around $1.5 million it did in fall. With so many problematic timeslots, their least worry is if Gotham will be $25 or $30 million in black when season ends. It's their 3rd best rated show (not counting animation), and likely will overtake Idol and finish season at 2nd place

And keep in mind one other thing, limited-series-only, pilot-season-is-dead Reilly told the authors it's exactly 16 episodes, come hell or high water. Then Reilly is gone and ratings are high... they get order for 6 more, so now they're spreading initially planed story over 22 episodes. For next season they'll be prepared for 22 episodes in advance, so story should go at more even pace. Should, doesn't mean it will, it's on authors.

Spot said...

Yep.


CBS: "Hey, let's avoid throwing it to the wolves and make sure we didn't renew out lowest rated show and give that 'honor' to CSI by scheduling it poorly"

Spot said...

The comics help with the original debut by having a built in fanbase, but I'm thinking probably less than half of the massive 8.7 for the last premiere had read the comics.

Spot said...

After finals Sleepy Hollow is up 2 tenths. FOX dramas have pretty simple reasonings for the ratings. Sleepy Hollow had its main drama competition go into repeats, while Gotham had pretty much identical competition as last week. I would even go as far as the claim Superbowl Commercials probably overlap with Gotham more than 2 Broke Girls

Spot said...

One more think I think is worth noting is NCIS: LA held 73% of its last original in its repeat airing. That's a pretty good repeat value. Seeing as repeats are now worth less than 50% of originals

Spot said...

Last week, Sleepy Hollow actually had a 1.35 in finals and based on the adjutsment (assuming it wasn't preemptions based) I would expect today's rating to be closer to 1.45 than 1.50, which means the upwards movement was actually closer to 0.1 than 0.2, so it could just be a normal fluctuation and not Scorpion's absence.

Spot said...

Joe Adlian just shared the first three episodes of ER on Thursdays:

(viewers in millions/HH rating)

9/22/94: 23.0/16.3
9/29/94: 23.9/17.6
10/6/94: 26.8/19.2

Spot said...

He also put link to .pdf with ratings from first 10 weeks of season 1993-94 (HH and total viewers only), starting from page 4 of this document:
http://anythingkiss.com/pi_feedback_challenge/Ratings/19930920-19931128_TVRatings.pdf

World Series on CBS easily beating Monday Night of Football.
However, sitcoms (Roseanne, Home Improvement) and 60 Minutes higher rated than any of those games.
But in week ending Oct 17, 1993 all are trumped by ABC's counter-progamming to World Series Game 2 on Sunday - Movie: Pretty Woman.

Spot said...

I was already bored at this point LOL

Spot said...

I also find it funny that FOX's shows were usually the lowest-rated.

Spot said...

Those ratings are for 1993-94 season, and Fox raise started when they got NFL games package. Which was next year, they started airing games in fall of 1994. Until that moment Fox was more a large group of stations, than real national network.

Spot said...

CBS' smart decision of going all in with originals in the Monday 8pm timeslot is paying off as they are doing what seemed impossible which was to cover the very big numbers Mother was posting a year ago. The half hour is down only a miniscule 2% so far. While a lot of that is due to the early Big Bang inflation, the continued rotation of original episodes has been helping a lot too.


In fact, the entire CBS Monday is on the year to year upswing and has the best trend of any day on any of the Big 4s. The CW has a number of days on the upswing but the Big 4 do not (it is just this one and ABC Sundays right now, although that will certainly change upon the return of TGIT and other midseason changes), so this is a big accomplishment!

Spot said...

It may just be fluctuations, but the 2 times Sleepy has aired without Scorpion it has gone up, while its lead in has always been down on the occasion. I mean it rose with a Gotham repeat without Scorpion competition on Decemeber 1st

Spot said...

Yes, it seems there's overlap between Scorpion and Sleepy Hollow (fun fact: both show come from same authors).
Few days ago Fox released list of Live+3 for first 3 days of previous week (Mon to Wed, 1/19 to 1/21), and among broadcast shows the biggest increase of 69% had Sleepy Hollow and SVU (went versus that huge 4.4 Empire episode). That's a lot, most of shows doesn't go 70% up not even in Live+7. Especially not 9 PM shows, 10 PM shows and Friday shows are most DVRred. While it doesn't help much C3 ratings of Sleepy Hollow (because most of those people fastforward commercials), I think Sleepy Hollow might surprise us after (expected) move to Thursday 9 PM next fall. Drama competition is definitely stronger in that timeslot, but not necessary more overlapping one.

Spot said...

It's amazing how highly rated repeats were back then.

Spot said...

Why were castle and NCIS reruns last night?

Spot said...

Because it's the week before sweeps, so they're holding on to some extra episodes.

Spot said...

ah Thats right, NCIS has been doing well this season.

Spot said...

Oh well, it's not like they were already burning off episodes here and there.

Spot said...

"NBC sweeps though may again" - That's a headline we won't see today. Supposing this is from may 1993 and they dominated the 90s and early 00s, could they have won the may sweeps for 20 consecutive years?


Four shows beating Monday Night Football on premiere week (3 of them scripted) and lots of them coming close. Also, MNF falling to third place in week 2. This data is amazing for every ratings junkie.

Spot said...

Maybe games were blowout.
Just kidding. I think the reason is cable was almost non-factor. Few days ago I posted graph from FX Netwoks research for "Number of original scripted series on cable": In year 1999 there was 23 original cable series, and in 2014 there was 180, almost 9x more. I mean, football had high ratings back then too, but there was so little options that practically everything was high rated.

Remotely related: In The Americans sometimes TV or radio announcers from some ice hockey or baseball game can be heard in background. I listen carefully what they are saying, then Iater I google to see what game it was. They always put enough clues to make figuring out possible (thanks to knowing attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan was in 1981, so it's possible to narrow time interval). Don't judge me now, we all do some weird stuff. i suppose.

Spot said...

The massive Cheers finale that ran 90 Minutes was in May 1993. That was supposed to have done a 40+ demo. Probably made it a lock.

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