Thursday, January 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/21/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Empire (4.4) added a tick, putting it up a whooping 10% week-to-week, while its teammate American Idol (3.4) also ticked up. The picture got a bit less dire for the 9/8c procedurals, but Criminal Minds (2.0) and SVU (1.3) were still at new season lows. The 100 (0.5) went down a tick.
  • Empire is becoming Fox's new Death Star. The show followed up its two-tenth growth in week two by packing on another three tenths in week three (4.3). Not only is this clearly the biggest new series smash in many, many years, but it actually seems to be dragging American Idol (3.3) back from the dead with it. Idol was just 13% behind the third Wednesday episode from last season.
  • The added benefit for Fox: Empire appears to be demolishing the competition. Criminal Minds (1.9) and Law and Order: SVU (1.2) both crashed to new lows, with SVU losing to ABC's comedy repeats. And that effect was isolated to the 9/8c hour where Empire resides; Stalker (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.5) were both pretty normal at 10/9c, and The Mentalist (1.5) actually grew a bit for CBS at 8/7c.
  • The CW's Wednesday return went a bit better than the Tuesday one, as Arrow (1.1) and The 100 (0.6) were both back toward the high end of this season's ratings. 

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.3 30% -41% -43% 1.5
The Goldbergs (R) 1.3 36% -43% -28% 1.6
Modern Family (R) 1.5 36% -50% -56% 1.7
Black-ish (R) 1.1 36% -42% -35% 1.3
Galavant (R) 0.5 39% -29% -66% 0.8
ABC:-43%-49%
The Mentalist 1.5 20% +7%+0.1n/a 2/8 n/a +11% +76% 1.7
Criminal Minds 2.0 25% -9%-0.2+0.1 12/12 -9% -9% -9% 2.1
Stalker 1.5 24% +0%+0.0-0.2 8/13 n/a +3% -6% 1.5
CBS:-0%+8%
The Mysteries of Laura (R) 0.8 21% -24% -47% 1.0
Law and Order: SVU 1.3 24% -7%-0.1-0.2 12/12 -28% -4% -30% 1.6
Chicago PD 1.5 27% +0%+0.0-0.1 6/12 -6% +0% -6% 1.6
NBC:-8%-27%
American Idol Wed 3.4 37% +13%+0.4n/a 1/3 -15% +15% -13% 3.4
Empire 4.4 50% +10%+0.4+0.4 1/3 n/a +10% +7% 4.1
Fox:+12%-3%
Arrow 1.1 46% +0%+0.0n/a 2/10 +22% +450% +29% 1.2
The 100 0.5 43% +0%+0.0+0.6 4/9 n/a +150% +0% 0.5
CW:+300%+19%
Big5:+1%-13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

27 comments:

Spot said...

Backstrom really feels like Rake 2.0 only with Rainn as a detective.

Spot said...

Fox is 10% up w2w in both hours, which never happens for Idol in this phase, and is unheard for for a broadcast drama to raise so much in both 2nd and 3rd episode, and yet you want to fix something? And that "fix" includes abandoning natural flow of a reality into drama in favor of unnatural drama to reality? I

No. Just no.

Spot said...

Biggest disappointment of the night by far is Criminal Minds. SVU at least lost some lead in support to add to the crash, but The Mentalist grew. It should have done better

Spot said...

Now way that FOX doesn't order a full season of Empire next year, or still air it at 9 pm. This show is just too damn big not to use it as a lead-in.

Poor 9 pm shows :(

Spot said...

The 100 appears to be one of those rare shows that is literally 100% unaffected by anything and everything happening around it. It is the eye of the hurricane.

Spot said...

how exceptional is actually Empire in terms of rating? looking at recent TV history, is there any show that did such big numbers and increasing them three consecutive times after the season première (or the pilot)?

Spot said...

Apparently, Mariah Carey will make an appearance on a future Empire episode.
Can't wait to see it!

Spot said...

Spot mentioned Desperate Housewives from legendary ABC rookie class of 2004-05 (Grey's Anatomy, Lost).

DH premiered with 8.9 A18-49, with season low 8.6 coming in second episode. Then it went up for 4 episodes in a row all the way to 11.1 A18-49.
Season high was season finale at 13.4, and first season had average of 10.66 A18-49.
Back then ratings were much higher, so it would be around 4.5 average in today's money.

All of a sudden 4.0 season average looks possible for Empire. And 4.5 not completely impossible, though unlikely. But Empire should finish in the same ballpark at least. Average 4.00 would translate into around 235 in A18-49+, and it would catapult empire to 2nd strongest scripted newbie in recent broadcast history. It would land ahead of Grey's, but bellow Desperate Housewives on this list:

http://www.spottedratings.com/2013/06/top-10-of-last-10-new-scripted-shows.html

Spot said...

EMPIRE ticked up to a 4.4 in nationals. I'd love to strategize here since I'm not really familiar with scheduling, but would love to start mock scheduling with you guys. What do you do in this situation if your CBS/basically any net where your show is getting destroyed by the competition? In basic scheduling rules, do you leave a strong show there and hope that it withstands or do you switch it out with another one?

Spot said...

Well, the first thing I'd focus on is having good counter-programming. So if there's a soap and a comedy doing good ratings, I'd put in an unscripted series, as it's far cheaper and usually has far lower ratings expectations. But if there's a death star like Idol years ago, then I'd go with lower priority shows that might get a renewal, but probably not in the end.

Spot said...

So in CBS' case, is it worth it to move CRIMINAL MINDS if it has to face EMPIRE in the fall?

Spot said...

Well, this implies if Empire stays in the same slot. It could very well be an anchor at 8PM. But if it is there, I'd say that Criminal Minds should stay in the slot. Yes it got hit bad this week, but the show is still relatively consistent, and I can't think of any other show that can do as well as that show, except for maybe Scorpion, but I'd like it to be on Monday. But if it's a consistent problem happening throughout the season, then I might change my mind.

Spot said...

In 2014 on networks in the U.S. aired at least 328 scripted first-run prime-time programs.

From Vulture:
Using Nielsen data, Landgraf’s research department at FX Networks determined that in 2014, at least 328 scripted first-run prime-time programs aired on ad-supported or subscription-based broadcast, cable, and streaming networks in the U.S. (PBS wasn’t included.)

cable - 180 original scripted series
broadcast - 124 original scripted series
streaming (Netflix, Hulu, Amazon...) - 24 original scripted series

Cable original scripted series by year, according to FX Networks Research:
http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2015/01/22/22-scriptedseries-chartb.o.png/a_560x0.png

Spot said...

GA's subsequent seasons were however much stronger than its already strong first season. So if we are looking for megahit dramas instead of mega hit freshmans, GA will have something to add in there.

http://www.spottedratings.com/2013/06/top-10-of-last-10-drama-seasons.html

In your predictions, Empire would finish in the middle of this list from Spot!

Spot said...

After finals Empire has to average a 3.19 in its last 10 episodes to be a Megahit in Plus! I think it is very, very possible, especially since it will end early. If it maintains a 4.0 next week, I think it is a lock.
.
Adjustments showed mercy to SVU and Minds.

Spot said...

Turns out no!

Spot said...

There's no a one for all recipe. There's always multiple factors in play.

CBS won't move Criminal Minds during this season. Because on that night Survivor returns soon, and then CSI: Cyber premieres at 10 PM, so the last thing they want is to overhaul remaining Wednesday hour too. They'll just weather it out.
I doubt they will move Criminal Minds next fall either. First, Empire might move to 8 PM. And even if it stays at 9PM, what CBS would put instead of CM there? With drama heavy schedule (13 dramas in 19 primetime hours) another drama which would be equally hurt by Empire, if not more. I say "if not more", as CBS is constantly reluctant to move CM from Survivor, because those two skew younger than other network programs (counting reality and drama shows only), other shows are skewing around 80% old, and this wednesday duo (and newbie Scorpion) "only" about 70%. In short, they're afraid some older skewing drama wouldn't fit so well with Survivor.

Next fall ABC surely will schedule Black-ish away of Empire. Which actually might make easier their scheduling decisions, because it limits number of their possibilities. There's no need for some knee-jerk reaction now. Though if Fresh Off the Boat premieres well, they might put it at 9:30 PM, and move Black-ish to 10 PM (unorthoodox move, but that way it would have indirect Empire lead-in). One thing is sure, they want move their comedies from Wednesday now that they have strong comedy foothold there.

NBC: With football on Sunday, and The Voice on Mon / Tue they are forced to air a lot of scripted f Empire is at 8 PM on Wed / Thu. Then I think they'll put some low priority drama at 9 PM (like SVU or CPD) if Empire would be at 9 PM. And if it is 8 PM, then some reality show at 8x PM, as low cost counter-programming. Currently they exactly have SVU there - so better it's hurts than some young drama they're shepherding to syndication.

Spot said...

If Backstrom is a hit, I would be pretty shocked. The reviews have been pretty mediocre to bad, and I don't think Rainn Wilson would be enough of a draw. OTOH, no competition, decent lead-in, and I'm guessing promotion on Empire(I don't watch FOX live).

Spot said...

Just wow at Empire. I'm speechless. I knew it would be success, but I never knew it would be the biggest new hit of the season knocking HTGAWM off the throne. If the growth continues or it stays at this level, everyone is going to be afraid of Empire.

Spot said...

This is the first I can recall that an ultra-early renewal didn't sap the momentum of a series. If anything, perhaps that plus the show itself being really good are what helped spur the week three growth.

Spot said...

Renewals don't really affect anything, Empire was already rising last week anyway, it's a monster hit all on its own.
The 100 is steady at 0.5/0.6s.

Spot said...

thanks that was interesting!

Spot said...

Empire was even adjusted up! O_o

Spot said...

great stuff from empire. definitely should be renewed by may but i shouldnt speak too soon

Spot said...

It already got renewed after 2 episodes.

Spot said...

It's just that, whenever I've seen an ultra-early renewal of a show, it seems to make the early fans complacent and they begin to drift into DVR mode instead of watching live. Or if it's for a limited series, it angers them a la Sleepy Hollow.

Spot said...

completely slipped my mind! thanks for reminding me

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.