Wednesday, January 21, 2015

First Two Weeks, Empire


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 3.8
Lead-in: American Idol (3.2 overall, 3.4 at 8:30)
Competition: Modern Family (3.2) / Black-ish (2.1), The People's Choice Awards (1.8), Law and Order: SVU (1.7), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.4).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 4.0 (+5%)
Lead-in: American Idol (3.0 overall)
Competition: Modern Family (3.0) / Black-ish (1.9), Criminal Minds (2.2), Law and Order: SVU (1.4), The Flash (R) (0.2).

Since this show is already renewed, everyone will be locked in with a "Renew (Confident)." Just making this post for completist purposes. No response necessary!

42 comments:

Spot said...

The CBS bubble is all over the place! I mean 2 episodes ago LA had a 2.0 and a couple back 5-0 had a 1.1!

Spot said...

Yeah, you're right. It's crazy. I think that probably means everything is renewed though. For one reason or the other, it feels like they make everything profitable somehow. I think even CSI will get that renewal and be used as midseason spackle a la mentalist. They have the room for it if they cut Race from the schedule and I would argue they absolutely should cut Race from the schedule. Replacing it with Boss is possible but Boss can't produce full seasons so they would need something for Fridays later on anyway and I kind of like this midseason use of Boss on both Sundays and Fridays.

Spot said...

Ahah this is a first, right? Usually you rush in the post when it feels like the show is about to be cancelled right away (MLS this year) but you probably never felt you had to rush it because it was about to be renewed right away.

Spot said...

I do think the reported cut in the price per episode for 5-0 by TNT may kill it more than any first run ratings at this point, and save CSI like the Mentalist. NCIS is the only show that could possibly challenge the massive CSI syndication package of over 300 episodes.
I would think Race is in legit danger if it hadn't had a spring order. CBS saw had badly it did in fall and STILL ordered another season. But the difference between Race and Boss is staggering. I mean race is -42% y2y and Boss is +1% y2y!

Spot said...

How about a game to see if Fox renews it for a third season before season 1 finishes or season 2 even debuts? :-)

Spot said...

Renew (confident) is right! Can't blame FOX for wanting to lock this down as early as possible. I think this and last year's Resurrection and Chicago PD show that being a midseason entry doesn't always mean that you are a weaker entry then what you are replacing or the network has less faith in you. This show seems legit, but I'm sure FOX is glad they didn't give low 1's Hell's Kitchen as its lead in this fall.

Spot said...

Concerning Five-0, I've heard that they made a new deal with Netflix yesterday. Not sure how much those are worth it, but it appears CBS is still shopping the show around. It had a millionaire deal with TNT before so as long as the decline wasn't that crazy, it should be in the profitable area I think. I mean, it could be making much less money, but still be making money, that's my point.


I don't think the show is in that area in which first run ratings don't matter anymore (see: CSI). With 1.1/1.2 I doubt it could get renewed and probably any other CBS procedural not called Elementary would do better in the timeslot. At 1.4/1.5... which other CBS procedural would do better there? LA is hitting those numbers or very close to it on Mondays, POI isn't much better than that and has hit lower actually on Tuesdays (and is more serialized so it should bleed more from the move) and Elementary is obviously consistently below that on Thursday. The 8pm/ 9pm shows are either too new (Scorpion, New Orleans) or too necessary as anchors (CM, NCIS) to retire to Fridays. And they won't break the Madam Secretary/ Good Wife Sunday combo nor they will transplant both to Fridays and loose the 60 Minutes flow.


As for Race, I agree with you; you have a major point in saying that CBS still ordered the Spring season in spite of its numbers. However, I would also argue that I understand it a bit better now. CBS this year is going all in in a strategy to minimize repeats as much as possible (TNF preventing repeats for most Thursday shows all year, 25 episodes aired for Five-0 plus new award shows aired on Fridays, Mentalist on Wednesdays, mini-series like Dovekeepers, Boss and Mentalist on Sundays, timesharing CSI/Battle Creek, etc.), so I understand why they didn't want repeats during the winter on Fridays and then have Boss to fill in for the Spring - Boss was needed in this replacement role both on Sundays and on Fridays. Their December Sundays wouldn't have worked without Boss. And it's not like they had anything else they could throw there. They could have gone with Stalker or Battle Creek burn offs but they probably felt those would harm H50 and BB even more than Race. So I thinK TAR's spring cycle was more about lack of replacements than it was about TAR itself. Then again, could be just wishful thinking on my part

Spot said...

Spot,
When will we be getting more True Power Rankings? It looks like everything will be renewed before we see you disect their True strength!

Spot said...

That's the 2 year renewal of Glee no one talks about! The one that worked out for them

Spot said...

There are more examples. The 100/ TTP; The Following/ Mob Doctor, probably Last Man on Earth/ Mulaney.

Spot said...

I think CBS ordered the extra episode of The McCarthys thinking that the show would hold up enough to carry them through the February schedule change. The early returns on Mom in the post-TBBT slot weren't promising enough to suggest it'd be an anchor, which is probably what it would have taken for The McCarthys to play out a full-season string (TBBT | The Odd Couple | Mom | The McCarthys), assuming the make-goods the show would have forced did not reach critical level. Apparently they already have.

Sometimes shows play out the order to earn some chits/goodwill with the creative community in the hopes of getting their next project. For example, I wouldn't be surprised if NBC wanted to try landing Kate Walsh for a future project. The goodwill effort can also extend to the below-the-line players as they don't get paid unless an episode's produced (even though CBS canceled The Millers, the cast and studio went ahead and filmed an extra episode after the announcement so the crew got paid). Other times, the production of a show like The Biggest Loser is already locked in so extending the runtime isn't an option without last-minute scrambling to re-edit the episode, adding to the cost to reemploy crew.


In the case of NBC, though, it's probably because there was no opportunity cost that was lost to running Thursdays as-is.

Spot said...

Undercover Boss is not only stronger than Race, but also more compatible with the procedurals. 5-0 is going to have a post DST spring TAR as a lead for the back half of its season. TAR could very well go sub 1! So I'm warry of making any sort of guesses here. I mean 5-0 was able to do as high as a 1.8 last January with Boss and was down to a 1.2 by May with Unforgettable.
I think it is ironic that CBS of all networks is reducing repeats as they are the network with the best repeaters (even if they are weaker than they used to be)

Spot said...

In Q3 of last year TNT announced stunning $400 million write-downs regarding syndicated programs. I assume they made it publicly known because of shareholders, that's not some small, every day business, write-down.

Variety's sources said: "its Hawaii 5-0 from CBS’ syndie arm, and The Mentalist, from Warner Bros."
Later TNT programming head John Martin said (when asked by journalists which are those shows): "among others, The Mentalist and Tyler Perry shows including House of Payne."

So it's surely Mentalist, and very likely Hawaii 5-0 that will be pulled off TNT schedule (or by now already are ? ). TNT surely doesn't want any more seasons of those two procedurals. And it undoubtedly lowers the price CBS can get for H50 episodes from local stations and/or some other cable network. That is, if anyone actually wants to air H50 after that debacle. Netflix deal might be exactly sign that local broadcasters and cable networks doesn't want H50 at all, so CBS is taking what they can get.

Spot said...

I NEVER said it was good but it was an expected decline and I'll answer whatever I choose to answer, like I said before, it was never that strong, it rode off the hype of being a TVD spin off in its first season and even then it was declining by the Spring so the numbers should come as no surprise.
Which is why Supernatural should've moved to Mondays as it's a stronger show, it's already been moved around before and can be moved around anywhere.

Spot said...

Thanks for the information!

Spot said...

Reign could go the way of Beauty and the Beast: moved to summer with 13 episode seasons. The CW's contract with Netflix may only involve providing a certain number of content hours instead of a specific number of episodes of a show. It's a guess I'm making partly due to Nikita only having a 6 episode final season.

If Reign gets a 22-ep pickup, then Fridays feel more likely than standing put on Thursdays.

Spot said...

All of that makes sense, thanks for the information. Good point about the goodwill and the millers example. It must have been a strange thing though, going back to film an extra episode right after being pulled from the schedule in the middle of a sophmore season.

I do disagree about the case of NBC though. I feel like they could have let them there in December but for January, I feel that Blacklist reruns would have been better because: 1)It would probably produce higher ratings (it's a ridiculously non competitive slot during January) so ad revenue would be better and 2) It would get viewers used to blacklist being there.

Spot said...

Those are good examples of shows that did better. Some of them (Resurrection, The 100) were pleasant surprises that they didn't necessarily think would do better than what they were replacing. The Following, Chicago PD, and Empire were clearly thought to be the better shows and Mob Doctor, Ironside, and RBS were mostly placeholders

Spot said...

And I said 43% surely wasn't expected.
And I said it's absolutely not true Supernatural can be moved wherever without dropping in ratings. And I gave you the reasons why. While you're only argument is "because I said so".

So, agree we disagree. Have a nice day, sir.

Spot said...

Yet it lasted at least 10 SEASONS and moved off Fridays, clearly that shows longevity, it's been moved around the schedule and is still 1 of the top network shows. I NEVER said anything about a unicorn, unlike your arguments that have devolved into rude name calling and petty 'no, you' replies so no, that is not a rational explanation. Dumping in new shows on Mondays haven't been helping the network in terms of ratings.

Spot said...

Plenty of shows drop seasonally, in fact it's expected, lots of sophmore shows drop. Supernatural has gotten lower ratings in the past, don't forget it lasted at least 10 seasons and was moved off Fridays, as well as moving around the schedule because it can survive that and has a loyal audience to boot. All you've done is dismiss everything, basically 'no, you're wrong' replies. So clearly you don't agree to disagree, you're just being dismissive. Have a nice day to you too.

Spot said...

Yes, I fully expect TAR to go sub 1.0 on the Spring, it will be painful to see. It will actually be interesting to see if CBS does its batch of renewals early on before that happens or if it waits to see the effects on H50.

As for the repeats, I think it is justified. CBS was really lagging behind. Last year, my records indicate that (excluding Saturdays and Sundays 7pm), CBS had 24% of repeats on the schedule. The closest big4 to that was ABC with 19%, then FOX with 17% and NBC with 11%. Keep in mind though that ABC had a horrible season newbie wise and had to resort to regularly scheduled repeats to replace Wonderland, The Assets and the Tuesday triology. Normally their number would be lower than this. So CBS clearly had an opportunity here to step up and change this picture. In addition, I would argue that they are being generally pretty smart in what they are repeating. The Monday and Tuesday shows are their best repeaters so those are being left to air the entire season, while the Sunday shows (the worst repeaters) aren't even given a chance to repeat. They could repeat Thursdays but that probably came more from TNF than anything.

Spot said...

I forgot about ABC's messy scheduling last season.

Spot said...

TBL does kind of complicate the equation since they won't just abandon the show. If I was NBC I would have dumped Bad Judge & A to Z on Fridays or Saturdays, doubled up on The Biggest Loser episodes in November/December to wrap it up sooner, then double-pumped The Blacklist's 8 episodes of season two in January.

Spot said...

I would argue that Betrayal was also a placeholder. They didn't bother moving Revenge for that show and they did so for Resurrection, which was also much more promoted (whether that was because it was ABC's last hope of the season or not, but still).

Spot said...

Probably in 2-3 weeks. Need to knock out some War of 18-49 Updates first.

Spot said...

That would have been a decent plan, I like it.

Spot said...

You're killing me TV! Between The Bachelor and Joni Ernst, I've never been more ashamed to be an Iowan.

Spot said...

As we have talked about before, CBS is not even letting Criminal Minds repeat! The only repeat in slot this season has been on New Year's Eve. And that is generally a great repeater. As is CSI, but CSI has let to have a single repeat. It has either been new or preempted every single week this year.

Spot said...

Criminal Minds is an odd case, yes, but I am not sure they actually planned on that. It is a result of a series of circumstances on Wednesday that led to that, mostly reality related (Big Brother finale, Survivor double episode in December, Survivor finale, Survivor finale again in the spring, TAR premiere in the spring, mentalist finale, People's choice awards). The only one I find odd is that CBS put the dovekeepers on Tuesday and Wednesday instead of Monday and Tuesday but I guess it is because they want the first episode to lead out of NCIS.

CSI is because they literally don't have room to rerun it. They are already struggling to find room for the originals.

Spot said...

Good thing a Pennsylvanian like me is decently represented...I think.

Spot said...

I took it as ABC being slow to the uptake, look how long it took for them to finally move Grey's Anatomy and finally have their big night which should've happened awhile ago. Betrayal was definitely a placeholder though.

Spot said...

Monday would make sense because Scorpion has already burned through a ton of episodes super early and Criminal Minds is behind the average drama on number of episodes aired.

Spot said...

Probably 1 of their biggest blunders along with Utopia.

Spot said...

I believe ABC was surprised with Resurrection, the show had production problems that reduced the first season to 8 episodes and they originally announced it as a replacement for Betrayal at the 10 PM hour, they then decided later to move it to 9 PM, sliding Revenge down.

Spot said...

That explains a lot.

Spot said...

Yes, Reign could definitely be only 13 episodes order and summer airing. Purely because of the fact they renewed 8 shows + there will be 3-4 new shows ordered + iZombie might be renewed.

Plus this: While it's speculated more episodes show accrues, more Netflix pays CBS/WB per episode, it surely goes only to some extent. I mean, if show's ratings would drop to literally 0.0, then Netflix can't make it profitable. Not Netflix + international + digital combined together could. So, for those low rated shows, CW (read: CBS/WB) might actually be the side wanting season consists of only 6 episodes for Nikita, 10 for HoD, and 13 for BatB.

I remember Pedowitz saying The Carrie Diaries was cancelled because it didn't do well digital in second season, while it did in first. By digital he meant streaming from The CW site, ads from their TV runs are embedded in those streamings, so if viewing occurs in first 3 days, then Nielsen counts it, and CW gets some money from it.
Point being, Netflix and/or digital and/or international sales can save CW show, because those shows are relatively cheap, so few millions more of revenue (compared to other bottom-dwellers) from some source may matter a lot. But only to some extent, if first-airing are awful, show will be cancelled sooner or later. Or shorter final season will be ordered to please wish of their important Netflix for series to have proper conclusion.

Spot said...

Maybe, yeah, I had forgotten about Resurrection's production problems and initial 10pm timeslot.

Spot said...

You have major sports teams at least. Only bad thing I have ever seem on Pennsylvania is the Penn State scandal a couple years back. Not trying to make this a political forum, because its not, but the Republicans picked the Iowa equivalent of Sarah Palin to talk last night and it just makes me ashamed of what people must think of Iowa. Oh well, I voted for her opponent, so not my fault

Spot said...

I am not sure they should have moved GA sooner. They could have done it a year ago but they weren't sure Scandal was strong enough to anchor the night like that. It was very strong in Season 2 but they got burned before when they upgraded Revenge in its sophmore season and then it couldn't anchor the night long term (and OUAT, to a lower extent). Scandal is practically a third year show now, so I understand them not wanting to make the move so soon. They could have made it, but it was risky and they needed to have the absolutely right show to warrant the move and put at 10pm, which I don't think they had last year.

In a pre-Scandal era, they had no way to move GA to 8pm since no other show could anchor the night.

Spot said...

Parks averaging 1.475, the task for #1 continues, only needs to hold for four more weeks, the last is a given.


Undateable premiering after The Voice's blind auditions helps the cause.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident)

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